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Mark's avatar

Siena has now found a double-digit spread in Florida and a six-point spread in Arizona. It could be that they're way off or it could be that Siena's model is picking up on a shift to Trump among Hispanics that other pollsters are not.

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Jonathan's avatar

It would almost have to be Hispanic men

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benamery21's avatar

Reading their methodology, it seems tailor-made for selecting a conservatively skewed Hispanic sample.

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DiesIrae's avatar

But their Hispanic sample is Harris +20. In this particular poll, it's the white vote that is causing a mid-size Trump lead.

(In their earlier Trump+5 in AZ, it was the Hispanic sample. Funny how they get the same topline with entirely different splits).

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benamery21's avatar

D+20 Hispanic vote is skewed right in AZ for a Presidential election. Santa Cruz County voted D+35 last time and itтАЩs 1/7th Non-Hispanic White.

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mejdownballot's avatar

how so?

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DM's avatar

What isn't often acknowledged is that racism isn't limited to white people. In Phoenix, in areas that are Latino and Black, there is friction. I personally know some Latino neighbors in Arizona who voted for Biden who won't vote for Harris.

This isn't limited to Arizona by any means. In LA, the Kevin DeLeon controversy involved Latinos being anti black, but also anti other Latino groups.

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Jonathan's avatar

I am still not convinced that they vote for Trump(but I get your point)

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michaelflutist's avatar

The thing is, there were people saying similar things about Latino attitudes toward Obama, yet he got huge support from Latinos.

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DM's avatar

And Obama didn't win Arizona either time, although Arizona has become more Democratic since 2012, and in 2008 an Arizonan was in the race.

Biden only won my 10K votes

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michaelflutist's avatar

Correct. But the general point is the same.

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James Trout's avatar

Obama is male, Harris is female though.

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

Machismo could play a role. I again feel disconnected from how anyone can see a man who inherited 400 million dollars from daddy and has never stopped whining about how hard his life is for him to be "macho" but some people just really hate the idea of women and women of color running anything.

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