Morning Digest: Virginia Republicans are in disarray—just take it from them

The GOP ticket has little interest in campaigning together and shows no signs of budging

John Reid will be the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Virginia—whether his ticketmates like it or not (credit: John Reid Facebook)

Leading Off

Virginia

Virginia Democrats will choose their nominees for two important statewide offices on Tuesday, but it's Republicans who—despite settling on their ticket long ago—find themselves in disarray.

"They've all got my cellphone, and I would love to see them," conservative radio host John Reid, who is the only Republican running for the open post of lieutenant governor, said of his ticketmates. "I hope that eventually we'll all be together and they'll embrace me, because I think we have a winning message."

Reid made his comments to WTOP's Nick Iannelli less than two months after he withstood pressure from Gov. Glenn Youngkin to end his campaign over sexually explicit online posts shared by an account allegedly tied to the candidate.

Morning Digest: GOP governor calls on GOP candidate for lieutenant governor to drop out

Reid, who called the effort "a coup against a gay man whom they didn't want to be their nominee but didn't have the guts to run against," denied the account was his and refused to drop out.

In the ensuing fracas, Reid successfully rallied the party's base against Youngkin―well, most of the base, that is. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who is running to succeed the termed-out Youngkin, has continued to avoid saying whether she'll even campaign alongside Reid.

"We have yet to see you on a stage with John Reid and [Attorney General] Jason Miyares. When can we expect that to happen that all three of the statewide candidates will be on a stage together?" Virginia Public Radio reporter Michael Pope asked Earle-Sears earlier this month. She responded, "Actually, as you know, we are all running our campaigns."

Miyares, the lone incumbent seeking reelection to a statewide post, has been only marginally more supportive, offering just a "sure" when the Virginia Scope asked him last month if he'd appear with Reid.

Reid, however, recently complained to Iannelli that it was "disappointing" that neither Earle-Sears—who faces an uphill battle against Democrat Abigail Spanberger—nor Miyares has wanted to campaign with him.

"I continue to invite them to do that," Reid said. "I just assume that at some point here, hopefully in the near future, everybody will get together."

Reid revealed that he hadn't spoken to Earle-Sears in the last seven weeks and also volunteered that he hadn't communicated with Younkin since the governor pushed him to drop out. The candidate, though, said he was "OK with that," adding, "I don't like being bullied. I don't like being threatened."

There has been considerably less acrimony on the Democratic side, where six different candidates are competing to take on Reid.

The four contenders who've drawn the most attention are state Sens. Ghazala Hashmi and Aaron Rouse; Prince William County School Board chair Babur Lateef; and former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney. Former federal prosecutor Victor Salgado and labor official Alex Bastani are running as well, though they've both struggled to raise money.

The same can also be said about Reid. Despite being the only Republican in the race since his sole opponent quit in late April, Reid raised just over $300,000 through June 5, when the most recent round of campaign finance reports were due, and he finished with less than $120,000 in the bank. Each of the four major Democratic candidates, by contrast, has hauled in well over $1 million.

Republican donors, however, may be reluctant to let such a vital office go without a fight. The post of lieutenant governor is of particular importance because its occupant is charged with breaking ties in the state Senate, where Democrats currently hold a small 21-19 majority. Vacancies, special elections, and even temporary absences could change that math before the Senate holds elections again in 2027.

The Democratic primary to take on Miyares, by contrast, turned negative in the final weeks of the campaign, though it never got as ugly as the Reid imbroglio.

That contest pits former state Del. Jay Jones against Shannon Taylor, the commonwealth's attorney for Henrico County. Jones has the backing of former Govs. Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam, while Taylor has considerably less support from the political establishment.

But Taylor does have the utility giant Dominion Energy in her corner, and the $800,000 it has poured into her campaign has helped her narrow a previously daunting fundraising gap. (Virginia, unlike most states, doesn't place limits on campaign contributions in state races.)

Jones and his allies at Clean Virginia, a well-funded environmental group that often opposes Dominion in Democratic primaries, have aired ads faulting Taylor for accepting money from an entity that they charge "pollute[s] our air and water." They've also highlighted the fact that Miyares has also received mammoth contributions from Dominion to make its case that only Jones can be trusted to defend Virginians.

Taylor has pushed back by running spots arguing that Jones is just "trying to hide the fact that he's never prosecuted a case." And she does have one prominent politician in her corner: former Attorney General Mark Herring, who survived a primary challenge from none other than Jones months before narrowly losing reelection to Miyares.

Miyares, who has both incumbency and plenty of cash to defend himself, looks to be the strongest member of the Republican ticket. But Miyares may still face a tough time winning a second term if both Reid and Earle-Sears, who continues to struggle to appease her own skeptics within the GOP, go down in defeat.

Geoffrey Skelley, formerly of 538 and now writing at National Bear-Garden, observes that one or the other party has swept all three of Virginia's statewide races during the last four election cycles. The last split decision came in 2005, when Democrat Tim Kaine was elected governor as Republicans narrowly won the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Voters will also choose nominees in races for all 100 seats in the state House of Delegates, where Democrats are hoping to defend and expand their slim 51-49 majority. The Virginia Mercury has a look at 10 key primaries to watch on Tuesday.

Primary season starts now

Election Night

GA Public Service Commission

Georgia is holding primaries on Tuesday for two seats on the state's Public Service Commission, a five-member body that regulates the electricity giant Georgia Power and other utilities. Both parties will be watching these unusual odd-year special elections in November for clues about the political climate in this swing state, but first, they need to pick their nominees.

Three Democrats are facing off for the right to take on Republican incumbent Fitz Johnson, who serves the 3rd District in Atlanta and the surrounding suburbs. But the commission's districts matter only for purposes of residency; all members are elected in statewide contests, and primaries are decided that way as well.

The Democratic field consists of Peter Hubbard, who runs a clean energy nonprofit; technology consultant Robert Jones, a former utility regulator in California; and former Atlanta City Council member Keisha Sean Waites. The winner needs to secure a majority to avoid a July 15 runoff.

The chances of skipping a second round increased last week when a fourth Democrat, Daniel Blackman, lost a legal battle to continue his campaign. Blackman, who was disqualified for not living in the 3rd District for the requisite amount of time, is still listed on the ballot, but votes for him won't be counted.

Republicans, meanwhile, are the ones with a contested primary in the 2nd District, which includes the southern Atlanta area and communities to the east. Commissioner Tim Echols faces an intraparty challenge from businessman Lee Muns, a former member of the Columbia County school board. The sole Democrat in the race is Alicia Johnson, a healthcare administrator.

The PSC—which has been an all-Republican body since Democrat David Burgess lost reelection in 2006—is supposed to hold staggered elections every even-numbered year. Elections in both 2022 and 2024, however, were canceled due to a long-running lawsuit in which voting rights advocates unsuccessfully sought to institute district-based elections in place of the existing system.

The GOP-dominated state legislature eventually passed a bill revamping the state's election calendar to hold special elections this fall for abbreviated five-year terms rather than the normal six years.

Republicans will maintain control of the panel no matter how this year's elections go, but a sweep by Democrats would position them to change that soon. Commissioner Tricia Pridemore is up for reelection in 2026, a contest that was supposed to take place in 2024. The final two incumbents, Jason Shaw and Lauren "Bubba" McDonald, will next be up in 2028 rather than in 2026.

P.S. Georgia's commission is one of just two boards anywhere in the country that's elected on a statewide basis but also requires that members be from different parts of the state. The other is Hawaii's Office of Hawaiian Affairs, which mandates that certain members reside on different islands but elects all of them statewide.

Morning Digest: Swingy Georgia is holding two statewide special elections this fall

Senate

AL-Sen

Former Secretary of State John Merrill, a Republican who is considering running for the Senate and other offices, tells WHNT he'll announce his plans around July 4.

IA-Sen

There's "widespread" chatter among Republicans that GOP Sen. Joni Ernst won't seek reelection next year, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The talk comes just a few weeks after the Iowa senator generated the wrong kind of attention when she responded to a constituent's warning that Americans would die as a result of the GOP's planned cuts to Medicaid by retorting, "Well, we all are going to die."

Morning Digest: Joni Ernst draws major challenger after town hall outburst

A spokeswoman for Ernst defended her record on Medicaid to the Journal, though reporters John McCormick and Lindsay Wise emphasized that the senator's aide "didn't directly answer a question on whether Ernst would run next year." The story also notes that Ernst recently postponed her yearly "Roast and Ride" fundraiser, a major event that usually occurs in June, to the fall.

During her initial campaign in 2014, Ernst said that she believed senators should serve just 12 years, but she seems to have since changed her mind: Earlier this month, the incumbent hired a campaign manager for what she described as "my re-election campaign."

But while Ernst had seemed well-positioned to claim a third term before her gaffe—which her critics quickly turned into a t-shirt—and the condescending mock apology she filmed in a graveyard, the paper notes that she was already losing clout in Congress.

The Iowan, who had once been talked about as a potential running mate for Donald Trump, infuriated MAGAworld last year when she temporarily ​​went wobbly on Pete Hegseth's nomination for defense secretary. Her colleagues also passed her over for the GOP's third-ranking spot in party leadership.

Ernst also generated unwanted attention in March when ProPublica reported that she had had an "inappropriate romantic relationship" with the Air Force officer responsible for the branch's lobbying efforts in Congress.

While that earlier story didn't generate nearly as much attention as her Medicaid comments, Ernst has drawn a trio of Democratic challengers in recent weeks. That roster includes two sitting state legislators, Rep. J.D. Scholten and Sen. Zach Wahls, as well as Iraq veteran Nathan Sage.

KS-Sen

Former Biden administration official Christy Davis says she's considering a bid against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, making her the only Democrat publicly weighing the race. Davis, who worked at the USDA, ran for Kansas' 1st Congressional District in 2020 but lost in the primary.

Governors

CO-Gov

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet has released the first poll of next year's Democratic primary for governor, which finds him leading state Attorney General Phil Weiser 53-22, with 25% of respondents undecided. The survey, from Global Strategy Group, also shows that Bennet is much better-known among primary voters, with a 74-13 favorability versus a 45-7 score for Weiser.

NJ-Gov

The first poll of New Jersey's gubernatorial race since last week's primary comes from newly minted Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who trails Democrat Mikie Sherrill 45-42 in a survey from National Research. The poll, which was obtained by Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin, went into the field the day after the primary.

Morning Digest: Why Republicans think they can win the race to lead New Jersey

NM-Gov

Republican state Rep. Mark Murphy, an oil company executive who was appointed to fill a vacant seat in the legislature earlier this year, says he's considering a bid for New Mexico's open governorship but doesn't sound excited about the idea.

"I'm not on a strict timeline," he informed Milan Simonich of the Santa Fe New Mexican in a new interview. "Candidates traditionally announced around Labor Day, but the schedule seems to keep moving up."

Another Republican whose name has been in the mix for some time, cannabis company CEO Duke Rodriguez, seems even less enthused. After saying last month that he was "90% confident" he'd run, and filing paperwork just days ago, Rodriguez now tells Simonich, "As of today, I'm not convinced there is a winning path for any Republican."

The only Republican actually running to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grishman is Rio Rancho Mayor Greg Hull, but even he doesn't appear to be particularly jazzed. Earlier this month, Hull postponed his official campaign kickoff without setting a new date, prompting chatter that he might bail altogether.

Three Democrats, meanwhile, have all been in the race for some time: former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, and former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima.

House

MI-10

Tripp Adams, a veteran of both the Navy and the Army National Guard, announced a bid for Michigan's open 10th Congressional District on Monday. Adams, who has also worked for a variety of companies in the private sector, is the fifth notable Democrat to join the race to succeed Republican Rep. John James, who's running for governor. Several Republicans are also looking at the contest, but none have jumped in.

Attorneys General

TX-AG

Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson is "likely" to run for attorney general, reports the Texas Tribune's Kayla Guo, but the lawmaker says he's also thinking about bids for several other posts, including governor, lieutenant governor, and state comptroller. Johnson had previously expressed interest in Texas' U.S. Senate race but does not appear to have mentioned that contest in his remarks to Guo.

Secretaries of State

IA-SoS

Iowa Republican Paul Pate announced over the weekend that he'd seek a fourth straight term as secretary of state and fifth overall. Pate faces a challenge from Democrat Ryan Peterman, a Navy veteran who kicked off a campaign last month.

Pate first won his current office in 1994 but left after one term to pursue an unsuccessful bid for governor. He returned as secretary of state 20 years later and has twice won reelection.