The district still has more Democrats than Republicans. While some of these are older voters who have never bothered to change their registration, Beshear carried the district twice in his gubernatorial runs.
That would be political suicide. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose. States still elect Governors from the opposite color because they believe in the legislature to keep a check on them. Senate has different political calculations and ticket splitting is mostly dead federally. He wouldn't be able to run again immediately for 2028 even if he won.
This wouldn’t be for senate (I agree that he’d lose that by double digits even in a Trump midterm), but for KY-06 which is substantially to the left of the state.
I don't think Beshear has a real chance if he runs for President-best case scenario, his campaign goes as well as Hickenlooper or Bullock's 2020 campaign.
I disagree there, the idea that the best case scenario is he polls at 1% and everyone forgets he even ran for it seems implausible (what would be a worst-case scenario compared to that if that’s the best case scenario?). I don’t think he’d win, but getting as far as someone like Klobuchar did isn’t hard to imagine.
These are ancestral democrats not active democrats, Kentucky had a Democratic registration majority till 2022 but it has been a red state since the last 20-30 years.
I'm not so sure about the candidates you're suggesting. I think any Democrat who might possibly win that district couldn't be very liberal. McGrath is probably too liberal, and Grimes ran a terrible Senate campaign, so I'm not impressed.
Disagree on the terrible campaign-it was more a combination of GOP wave and Mitch McConnell possibly being the best campaigner in modern Kentucky history than any problems with Grimes's campaign in my opinion.
Yeah, that one was weird and went sideways real quick with the national environment. Grimes campaign seemed to not feel confident like it was a real race and so they never got going. She still would’ve lost but she could’ve came close to matching her early poll numbers. I get it, though. Winning in KY went from possible to a mirage to a money pit.
If we spend on KY-6, we better be spending on a lot of other seats, first. PA-1 has been a glaring example of Dems do bad bc we don’t try. That seat has always been winnable if we threw $10m at it.
Yeah, in hindsight it's truly amazing how quickly the state Democratic parties collapsed in KY, WV, AR, TN, OK, etc. following the election of Obama. (Correlation or causation? You decide!)
What you see as "quick" may be the end result of a long, slow process. For example, Democratic control of the KY legislature had been gradually eroding for *decades* before the Senate flipped, and it took another 15-16 years for control of the House to slip away. Obama's Presidency overlapped with the final years of Democratic control in the House, but that very gradual loss of control started when he was in his 20s.
The idea that KY-Sen in 2014 was seen as competitive and our best potential pickup (except perhaps Maine where Collins basically got a bye) reflects how slim the pickings were that year. But actually winning it always seemed like a stretch at best and would have been under different circumstances, like McConnell retiring or the year being less red. Grimes didn't exactly help herself with episodes like her convenient amnesia about her presidential vote. (Applicable lesson for next year is don't let Republicans in competitive states and districts get away with any "Donald Who?" routines.)
KY-06 is potentially gettable as we did nearly win it in 2018, though a fresher face than McGrath or Grimes would probably be best.
In 2018, Barr was running as a 3-term incumbent. In 2026, the seat will be open unless Barr does the Chicken Dance between now and January. Open seats don't happen very often, so we had best take the chance while it's there. I'm glad the DCCC has made an early commitment, especially since one of their co-chairs for recruitment is Louisville's Morgan McGarvey, who was a state senator before he succeeded John Yarmuth.
Not sure. It was joke. When you referenced Alison Lundergan Grimes, it reminded me of the Democrats' first choice to run in the 2014 Kentucky Senate race.
Right, because in 2014, until Grimes decided to run, the vibe was less "Who will run?" as "Will anyone run?" They looked at Judd because there was real concern about being able to field a serious candidate at all, and that they were looking at her - or publicly seen to be looking at her - was seen as a sign of just how concerned they were.
The impression I get from local reporting, which I've only seen in print in the Courier-Journal, is that they will do this even if Barr backs out before the filing deadline next January.
Wouldn't the deep red UT legislature try to repeal the collective bargaining amendment? They tried doing it with the independent redistricting amendment voters approved, but got slapped down by the state courts.
It's not stopping Missouri MAGAts in their state legislature from trying to repeal the abortion and higher wage amendments voters enacted last November. They're even trying to take away powers from the courts to (re) write ballot summaries of the amendments on the ballot.
It is a mess. Hopefully voters (and MO justices) slap that down as well.
Potential 2026 candidates for light red to red states.
It would be disastrous to nominate Blue Dog "Progressive Conservative" Golden in Maine, isn't there any other politician either from the state legislature or a mayor? He's much more conservative than Peltola or Marie G Perez. Susan Collins has a very low approval among Harris voters, I'm sure she won't survive 2026.
One of the few times I've agreed with Sosik. The country has shown time and again in polls that they prefer someone moderately liberal on social issues and progressive on economics.
People didn't feel the effects due to post pandemic and Russian invasion's supply shocks. His other priorities like higher minimum wage, a public health insurance option and paid family leave were dead on arrival due to Manchin and Sinema.
People didn't know Biden was economically progressive, since he didn't have much rhetoric about it. Like it or not, rhetoric is just as important as actual actions in this case.
Biden also made Silent Cal seem like a braggart by comparison, at least during his Presidential term. You gotta sell it or else it's a tree falling in the forest.
The point is you can “sell” your views all you want. At the end of the day though voters have to care. They didn’t. They wanted to pretend COVID never happened and they wanted 2019 back.
There are socially conservative, hate Democrats like a team sport and Dan Osborn and Sherrod Brown did run far ahead of Harris. They are left wing on economics.
Moreover, I was talking about national politics and issue based polls.
Troy Jackson would be the strongest candidate they could put up against Collins, imo. But he's running for governor. There's some talk about Janet Mills running for senator, although she's no youngster.
Yeah, I would have much preferred Jackson run for Senate.
It's not unusual for politicians (especially from small states) to like each other and not want to run against each other. I suspect that's one of the issues at play here.
its not a question of dislike, i believe the original comity comment related to Collins. Jackson knows that as a popular far northern Maine former state senate president he is a stronger GE Governor candidate than bellows, who is admittedly not from Portland but Kennebec county is Augusta and mainers have an unnatural hate for those from the Portland Augusta Metro Area. My parents have lived in York County (southern Maine) for the last thirty years and they're still referred to as the New Yorkers
I think putting it in terms of stronger/weaker candidate as their reasoning to run is wrong.
Jackson would run for governor because he wants to be governor. Bellows is running for governor because she wants to be governor. They might also think they are stronger than other potential candidates, but 99% of the time that is not going to be the core justification for someone running for office.
Golden won't run against Collins. He worked for her at one time and I'm pretty sure they're still cordial.
And even though I'm not a huge fan of his politics, I do admire the fact that he's managed to defeat three decently-strong opponents over four campaigns. Peltola (whom I adore) couldn't defeat a non-Sarah Palin opponent, and I suspect that Gluesenkamp Perez will struggle mightily against anyone not named Joe Kent.
Still running 11 points over Harris while being a reliable enough vote for Democrats unlike Golden is no easy feat to pull off in Alaska. I'd argue that Peltola is the key to taking back the Senate and denying Alito and Thomas a retirement if she decides to run in 2026.
The article says that Democrats want her to run for Senate while a rating agency (maybe Cook IDR) reported that she was leaning towards governor early this year.
Gluesenkamp Perez's district seems to be getting less red (go ahead and fact check me on that if I'm incorrect). Certainly she's gone in the next GOP-leaning cycle but I think she's well-positioned to survive the next cycle with the current trajectory.
Hard to compare because of different environments and different district borders. Wiki says the 2020 redistricting made it slightly redder. Has the 2020 presidential results as 51-46 (R-D, same for all other numbers I list here), and 2024 as 50-47. It's not clear to me if the former number is the numbers for the current borders or not. Either way that would point at it getting a decent bit less red. The shift from 2020 to 2024 wasn't that big in WA but the district still moved leftward slightly.
Guaranteed same map has 2022 senate at 54-46 and 2024 senate at 50-49. Cantwell did ~4 points better in 2024 than Murray did in 2022, so by that metric the district moved 3-4ish points less red.
Actually with that kind of trend it's not impossible that MGP could win in the next red year if it's enough cycles away. If it's not until 2030 or so that could give her time to really cement herself + for the district to hopefully move a bit more towards her.
Best realistic configuration to beat Collins and hold the existing stuff is:
Troy Jackson -> ME-02
Shenna Bellows -> Gov
Jared Golden -> Senate
Golden is too conservative for the state as a whole, but if he can beat Collins its worth it. I'd also wonder if you would trend a little more liberal as time goes on if he's representing the entire state instead of ME-02.
I’d much rather have an entrenched Democratic incumbent that can win in bad years and good years against strong opponents in a Trump seat. Those are extremely rare candidates (just ask how many of those people Democrats have left, he’s basically it) key to any party’s majority (like the Biden district R’s in 2022 were key to their majority).
Golden can stay right where he is for as long as possible. He even moved left on guns after the school massacre in Lewiston in that rural district and STILL got a vote of confidence from constituents in 2024. Don’t mess with a good thing with some multidimensional chess pundit political thinking. The voters there like him and trust him.
Doing what you say above may end up with Democrats losing all 3 races (though I do agree with you that Golden is by far the best candidate to take on Collins).
I am not so sure, he describes himself as a progressive conservative, proposed a 15 percent universal tariff, totally supports Trump tariffs with false claims like Americans don't own stocks, was the lone vote for the funding bill in the house and more. Sounds like a Manchinema type.
Maine is a blue state, the country is as polarized as it can be and ticket spitting has been dying, it can definitely give us a liberal senator.
I’m not talking about my political preference for Maine’s Senate seat, I thought that was rather obvious. But politically speaking he is inarguably the strongest candidate to take on Collins ie: the best candidate Democrats could potentially have.
The only votes I care about in Congress are for majority leader and whether their vote is the difference between a bill passing or failing. Beyond that he can say or do the most batshit insane things I disagree with and I’ll still support him in that seat so the tariff crap I just brush aside. Political power only matters once you get it, not before. If this keeps him in Congress, by all means Trump tariff vote on every bill.
If you disagree that’s totally cool! But I’m not going to be convinced by anything anyone says as to why Golden is bad for “x” reason. It doesn’t matter to me at all.
This is very well put in terms of Golden's value and positioning. TBH, though, with the type of year 2026 is shaping up to be, I'm not sure we need him to beat Collins. I think Jackson or really any decent Dem could probably do it....
Oh absolutely! I never said Golden was our only chance, just that he’s our best candidate to run. Best to me means strongest, not that if we didn’t have him run we’d be cooked. Any decent Democrat could theoretically win in a Trump midterm. The quality of candidate gulf between Golden and someone else politically speaking running against Collins is rather large, so I view him as our best possible recruit (even though I don’t actually want him to run).
He specifically did not rule out running for Senate. Regardless of whether he like Collins or not, I don't think he would pass on the Senate if the opportunity arose. Hell, there's a bunch of primary challengers right now that are running against their former bosses. If he's not looking for an executive role going up against Collins and only having to run once every 3 cycles is far more appealing than trying to survive every cycle in ME-02 and waiting for King to retire.
I’m pretty positive he’d get more liberal by representing the entire state. People need to remember that members of Congress do try to represent their districts in order to get elected, it’s not all about your personal opinions. Sen. Gillibrand was trashed up and down for getting picked to replace Hillary bc her House record was so moderate and look where she is now. Representing the constituency and winning the election is the whole point of running so I’m sure he’d act accordingly.
Republicans of course never have to worry about this. They’re all nuts at this point or at least willing to support one.
The last time people said this would happen with a rep becoming senator, we got Sinema, and they based it on the same Gillibrand pathway from before.
My take is that it's something we would struggle to truly know. Is Golden's ideological record right now representative of who he truly is, and it works out well because that's what he needs to win ME-02? Is he actually further to the left and he has to moderate himself to win office? Maybe he's the odd duck that's actually further to the right and feels he has no real room to act that way while still winning a dem primary?
We do not know. We should never bank on a candidate dramatically moving to the left once they become a senator.
The way he talks about his "progressive conservative" philosophy, he seems more Sinema than Gillibrand or Walz, atleast to me. Some Blue Dogs are true ideologues like Sinema while others like Walz represented the views of their constituents.
The College of Cardinals is the electorate here. There are 135 voting-eligible members (Cardinals under the age of 80), although Varican law allows a maximum of 120 voting members. Not sure how they'll square that.
At present, 80% of the 135 were appointed by Francis. A two-thirds majority is necessary for election, so if nearly all of the Francis Cardinals stick together for a progressive candidate, it should be okay, unless they stick to the 120 maximum and lop off 15 Francis Cardinals. Only 5 JPII Cardinals left, which is good. My uneducated guess is Parolin (familiarity among the College) or de Rocha (continuity).
Based on that article it sounds like the appropriate meme would be Captain Barbossa saying that the 120 voting Cardinals is more of a guideline than an actual rule.
Parolin or Zuppi seem to be the best guesses. Then again, he who enters the conclave a Pope leaves a Cardinal. Bergoglio was a super unlikely choice in 2013
The most interesting fact I've found about this so far is that in the 2013 conclave, 52% of the participating cardinals were from Europe. This time, of the 135 eligible cardinals, only 39% are from Europe.
Maybe this could increase the chances of another non-European pope?
what is the problem with a European Pope? Not Catholic and not really up on the politics of the Vatican except I know there have been some pretty extreme Popes in the past
No problems at all. There’s just speculation that since the Church’s growth and the balance of faithful bring in the developing world that the Church may find purchase in going outside of Europe yet again in acknowledgement of that
Tagle I think would have a harder time in a conclave now than a few years ago with some allegations of helping cover up sexual abuse out there. You can check the same boxes with Besungu it you want somebody outside of Europe with a similar reformist profile
I said "damn" out loud when I got an email this morning titled "remembering Pope Francis." He died after having double pneumonia, a reminder for those of us over 50 to get pneumonococcus shots. I haven't gotten mine yet this year, and it will be my first since the CDC guidelines changed (and who knows what they might be and whether the vaccine will be covered by U.S. insurance policies next year!).
Georgia State Senator Jason Esteves launched a bid for governor today making him the first Democrat to officially announce:
“I’m running to be the next Governor of Georgia.
As a former teacher, small business owner, dad, and state senator, I’ve seen Georgia’s potential because I’ve lived it. Georgia families are just looking for a fair shot.
I’m Jason Esteves, and I know that together we can build a better Georgia.”
Probably Esteves-Lance Bottoms had major problems as Mayor of Atlanta, and it's certainly plausible her service in the Biden Administration will be a net negative with Independents.
He can beat her. Shes not very popular her among Dems I talk to. Esteves has also been the state party treasurer so those people that know him like him
Reid is a talk show host who's never held political office, which doesn't sound like a particularly promising resume for a statewide candidate in a state where his party label isn't an advantage. That doesn't make him E.W. Jackson 2.0, but much of his platform, including complaining about "divisive wokeness", school "indoctrination", and prosecuting "rioters and looters" feels stale at best. This isn't 2021 and he isn't Glenn Youngkin.
Virginia Dems should start doing opposition research on Reid now (as well as Sears and Miyares). With a career as a talk show host, he has probably made a lot of controversial statements over the years, which can be used against him in the general election.
Something tells me that reference for prosecution by House Republicans and the Trump Justice Department is not necessarily a deathblow in a Democratic primary in NY, or in most other places. Nor will it elect Curtis Sliwa or Eric Adams in the general.
Of course, there's still time to consolidate around someone else. But that's running shorter and shorter....
Given WHY Cuomo would be indicted, it easily could be a death blow-unlike most people Trump is targeting, the nursing home scandal could have easily had him indicted on Manslaughter or Depraved Indifference Murder.
I seriously doubt its going to affect the primary much. People here didn't much care about this issue when it first came up. Unless they have him in a black hole in El Salvador, it won't move the needle much.
Professional victim and reality show star wannabe Nancy Mace filmed herself getting into an argument with a gay man inside a grocery store over why Mace is dodging townhalls like most Republicans these days. The lowlights of the argument was Mace saying, "fuck you" twice to this man. She also mentioned twice that she voted for gay marriage.
Nancy Mace is the fakest of the fake (see also: Vance, JD). She got her start in politics with a Tea Party challenge to Lindsey Graham that went down like a lead balloon, then became "moderate" to beat Joe Cunningham in then-light red SC-01, and then became hardcore MAGA when the district was redrawn redder.
She's a weathervane and nothing more. I honestly don't think she truly believes *anything.*
We really should make a run at KY-6 If Andy Barr running for Senate turns out to be accurate.
Someone like Alison Lundergan Grimes or Amy McGrath would be a solid potential nominee.
The district still has more Democrats than Republicans. While some of these are older voters who have never bothered to change their registration, Beshear carried the district twice in his gubernatorial runs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky%27s_6th_congressional_district
Hell, I'd love to see Andy Beshear himself run. He grew up in Lexington.
That would be political suicide. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose. States still elect Governors from the opposite color because they believe in the legislature to keep a check on them. Senate has different political calculations and ticket splitting is mostly dead federally. He wouldn't be able to run again immediately for 2028 even if he won.
This wouldn’t be for senate (I agree that he’d lose that by double digits even in a Trump midterm), but for KY-06 which is substantially to the left of the state.
I don't think Beshear has a real chance if he runs for President-best case scenario, his campaign goes as well as Hickenlooper or Bullock's 2020 campaign.
I disagree there, the idea that the best case scenario is he polls at 1% and everyone forgets he even ran for it seems implausible (what would be a worst-case scenario compared to that if that’s the best case scenario?). I don’t think he’d win, but getting as far as someone like Klobuchar did isn’t hard to imagine.
Beshear's best and worst case scenarios aren't different to me.
I'm assuming in the best case, that he'd do well in debates and eventually be the VP Pick for a Harris or Whitmer.
We can't discuss Democratic presidential primaries here.
He won't.
I know.
These are ancestral democrats not active democrats, Kentucky had a Democratic registration majority till 2022 but it has been a red state since the last 20-30 years.
Louisiana still has more registered Democrats than Republicans, up to this day. For whatever its worth.
I'm not so sure about the candidates you're suggesting. I think any Democrat who might possibly win that district couldn't be very liberal. McGrath is probably too liberal, and Grimes ran a terrible Senate campaign, so I'm not impressed.
Disagree on the terrible campaign-it was more a combination of GOP wave and Mitch McConnell possibly being the best campaigner in modern Kentucky history than any problems with Grimes's campaign in my opinion.
Yeah, that one was weird and went sideways real quick with the national environment. Grimes campaign seemed to not feel confident like it was a real race and so they never got going. She still would’ve lost but she could’ve came close to matching her early poll numbers. I get it, though. Winning in KY went from possible to a mirage to a money pit.
If we spend on KY-6, we better be spending on a lot of other seats, first. PA-1 has been a glaring example of Dems do bad bc we don’t try. That seat has always been winnable if we threw $10m at it.
What rhymes with Alison Lundergan Grimes?
Ugh, I still remember that video. It was like a bad ripoff of the Gregory Brothers' work.
Yeah, in hindsight it's truly amazing how quickly the state Democratic parties collapsed in KY, WV, AR, TN, OK, etc. following the election of Obama. (Correlation or causation? You decide!)
What you see as "quick" may be the end result of a long, slow process. For example, Democratic control of the KY legislature had been gradually eroding for *decades* before the Senate flipped, and it took another 15-16 years for control of the House to slip away. Obama's Presidency overlapped with the final years of Democratic control in the House, but that very gradual loss of control started when he was in his 20s.
The idea that KY-Sen in 2014 was seen as competitive and our best potential pickup (except perhaps Maine where Collins basically got a bye) reflects how slim the pickings were that year. But actually winning it always seemed like a stretch at best and would have been under different circumstances, like McConnell retiring or the year being less red. Grimes didn't exactly help herself with episodes like her convenient amnesia about her presidential vote. (Applicable lesson for next year is don't let Republicans in competitive states and districts get away with any "Donald Who?" routines.)
KY-06 is potentially gettable as we did nearly win it in 2018, though a fresher face than McGrath or Grimes would probably be best.
In 2018, Barr was running as a 3-term incumbent. In 2026, the seat will be open unless Barr does the Chicken Dance between now and January. Open seats don't happen very often, so we had best take the chance while it's there. I'm glad the DCCC has made an early commitment, especially since one of their co-chairs for recruitment is Louisville's Morgan McGarvey, who was a state senator before he succeeded John Yarmuth.
Not having a good answer for who she supported for president was an idiotic own goal that hurt her with everybody. It was a lousy campaign.
Ashley Judd!
Does Judd live in the district, or does she live in Louisville?
Not sure. It was joke. When you referenced Alison Lundergan Grimes, it reminded me of the Democrats' first choice to run in the 2014 Kentucky Senate race.
More like Ashley DUD, amirite?
Judd might have been electable in Illinois. In Kentucky the only thing she had going for her was her regular attendance at UK basketball games.
Right, because in 2014, until Grimes decided to run, the vibe was less "Who will run?" as "Will anyone run?" They looked at Judd because there was real concern about being able to field a serious candidate at all, and that they were looking at her - or publicly seen to be looking at her - was seen as a sign of just how concerned they were.
DCCC Targets Kentucky’s Most Vulnerable Republican for 2026
https://dccc.org/dccc-targets-kentuckys-most-vulnerable-republican-for-2026/
The impression I get from local reporting, which I've only seen in print in the Courier-Journal, is that they will do this even if Barr backs out before the filing deadline next January.
Wouldn't the deep red UT legislature try to repeal the collective bargaining amendment? They tried doing it with the independent redistricting amendment voters approved, but got slapped down by the state courts.
Probably, but repealing something that has just been approved by voters is a shitty look.
It's not stopping Missouri MAGAts in their state legislature from trying to repeal the abortion and higher wage amendments voters enacted last November. They're even trying to take away powers from the courts to (re) write ballot summaries of the amendments on the ballot.
It is a mess. Hopefully voters (and MO justices) slap that down as well.
You have it reversed—the legislature passed an anti-collective bargaining bill. This is a referendum to *repeal* it.
Potential 2026 candidates for light red to red states.
It would be disastrous to nominate Blue Dog "Progressive Conservative" Golden in Maine, isn't there any other politician either from the state legislature or a mayor? He's much more conservative than Peltola or Marie G Perez. Susan Collins has a very low approval among Harris voters, I'm sure she won't survive 2026.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/20/politics/democrat-crisis-recruitment-campaigns/index.html
‘A Prerequisite for Democrats to Come Back to Power’
Longtime Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik has some advice for the party — including to embrace the populist economics of Bernie Sanders and AOC.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/20/democrats-strategy-bernie-sanders-aoc-00299416
One of the few times I've agreed with Sosik. The country has shown time and again in polls that they prefer someone moderately liberal on social issues and progressive on economics.
Biden was the economically most progressive President since LBJ and it served him zero political dividends.
People didn't feel the effects due to post pandemic and Russian invasion's supply shocks. His other priorities like higher minimum wage, a public health insurance option and paid family leave were dead on arrival due to Manchin and Sinema.
People didn't know Biden was economically progressive, since he didn't have much rhetoric about it. Like it or not, rhetoric is just as important as actual actions in this case.
Biden also made Silent Cal seem like a braggart by comparison, at least during his Presidential term. You gotta sell it or else it's a tree falling in the forest.
Biden made speeches like this all around the country during his 4 years and the media simply didn't cover it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IpaiJsjntk
This isn't the 90s. You can't expect the media to come to you anymore. You have to go to them, aggressively and all the time.
The point is you can “sell” your views all you want. At the end of the day though voters have to care. They didn’t. They wanted to pretend COVID never happened and they wanted 2019 back.
If that’s the case why aren’t we seeing people “progressive on economics” winning in purple and red states?
There are socially conservative, hate Democrats like a team sport and Dan Osborn and Sherrod Brown did run far ahead of Harris. They are left wing on economics.
Moreover, I was talking about national politics and issue based polls.
Troy Jackson would be the strongest candidate they could put up against Collins, imo. But he's running for governor. There's some talk about Janet Mills running for senator, although she's no youngster.
Yeah, I would have much preferred Jackson run for Senate.
It's not unusual for politicians (especially from small states) to like each other and not want to run against each other. I suspect that's one of the issues at play here.
Why does Jackson not like Bellows?
its not a question of dislike, i believe the original comity comment related to Collins. Jackson knows that as a popular far northern Maine former state senate president he is a stronger GE Governor candidate than bellows, who is admittedly not from Portland but Kennebec county is Augusta and mainers have an unnatural hate for those from the Portland Augusta Metro Area. My parents have lived in York County (southern Maine) for the last thirty years and they're still referred to as the New Yorkers
I think putting it in terms of stronger/weaker candidate as their reasoning to run is wrong.
Jackson would run for governor because he wants to be governor. Bellows is running for governor because she wants to be governor. They might also think they are stronger than other potential candidates, but 99% of the time that is not going to be the core justification for someone running for office.
Either Chellie or Hannah Pingree would be fine with me.
Golden won't run against Collins. He worked for her at one time and I'm pretty sure they're still cordial.
And even though I'm not a huge fan of his politics, I do admire the fact that he's managed to defeat three decently-strong opponents over four campaigns. Peltola (whom I adore) couldn't defeat a non-Sarah Palin opponent, and I suspect that Gluesenkamp Perez will struggle mightily against anyone not named Joe Kent.
I hope you're correct about Collins and Golden.
Still running 11 points over Harris while being a reliable enough vote for Democrats unlike Golden is no easy feat to pull off in Alaska. I'd argue that Peltola is the key to taking back the Senate and denying Alito and Thomas a retirement if she decides to run in 2026.
I thought Peltola is leaning more towards a gubernatorial run next year.
She joked late last year that she would run for governor, U.S. Senate and the at large Congressional seat all at once.
I think she'd be a good fit for governor.
The article says that Democrats want her to run for Senate while a rating agency (maybe Cook IDR) reported that she was leaning towards governor early this year.
There's been nothing overly strong to my knowledge, but the expectations point at her running for governor much more likely than for senate or house.
Gluesenkamp Perez's district seems to be getting less red (go ahead and fact check me on that if I'm incorrect). Certainly she's gone in the next GOP-leaning cycle but I think she's well-positioned to survive the next cycle with the current trajectory.
Hard to compare because of different environments and different district borders. Wiki says the 2020 redistricting made it slightly redder. Has the 2020 presidential results as 51-46 (R-D, same for all other numbers I list here), and 2024 as 50-47. It's not clear to me if the former number is the numbers for the current borders or not. Either way that would point at it getting a decent bit less red. The shift from 2020 to 2024 wasn't that big in WA but the district still moved leftward slightly.
Guaranteed same map has 2022 senate at 54-46 and 2024 senate at 50-49. Cantwell did ~4 points better in 2024 than Murray did in 2022, so by that metric the district moved 3-4ish points less red.
Actually with that kind of trend it's not impossible that MGP could win in the next red year if it's enough cycles away. If it's not until 2030 or so that could give her time to really cement herself + for the district to hopefully move a bit more towards her.
Best realistic configuration to beat Collins and hold the existing stuff is:
Troy Jackson -> ME-02
Shenna Bellows -> Gov
Jared Golden -> Senate
Golden is too conservative for the state as a whole, but if he can beat Collins its worth it. I'd also wonder if you would trend a little more liberal as time goes on if he's representing the entire state instead of ME-02.
I’d much rather have an entrenched Democratic incumbent that can win in bad years and good years against strong opponents in a Trump seat. Those are extremely rare candidates (just ask how many of those people Democrats have left, he’s basically it) key to any party’s majority (like the Biden district R’s in 2022 were key to their majority).
Golden can stay right where he is for as long as possible. He even moved left on guns after the school massacre in Lewiston in that rural district and STILL got a vote of confidence from constituents in 2024. Don’t mess with a good thing with some multidimensional chess pundit political thinking. The voters there like him and trust him.
Doing what you say above may end up with Democrats losing all 3 races (though I do agree with you that Golden is by far the best candidate to take on Collins).
I am not so sure, he describes himself as a progressive conservative, proposed a 15 percent universal tariff, totally supports Trump tariffs with false claims like Americans don't own stocks, was the lone vote for the funding bill in the house and more. Sounds like a Manchinema type.
Maine is a blue state, the country is as polarized as it can be and ticket spitting has been dying, it can definitely give us a liberal senator.
I’m not talking about my political preference for Maine’s Senate seat, I thought that was rather obvious. But politically speaking he is inarguably the strongest candidate to take on Collins ie: the best candidate Democrats could potentially have.
The only votes I care about in Congress are for majority leader and whether their vote is the difference between a bill passing or failing. Beyond that he can say or do the most batshit insane things I disagree with and I’ll still support him in that seat so the tariff crap I just brush aside. Political power only matters once you get it, not before. If this keeps him in Congress, by all means Trump tariff vote on every bill.
If you disagree that’s totally cool! But I’m not going to be convinced by anything anyone says as to why Golden is bad for “x” reason. It doesn’t matter to me at all.
I really wonder about that. I feel like a Republican could easily run to the "left" of Golden on tariffs.
Nitpick: the mass shooting in Maine was in Lewiston. There's no such place in Maine called Lewisburg.
I’m sorry, I was going off my memory, I’ll edit it, thanks!
This is very well put in terms of Golden's value and positioning. TBH, though, with the type of year 2026 is shaping up to be, I'm not sure we need him to beat Collins. I think Jackson or really any decent Dem could probably do it....
Oh absolutely! I never said Golden was our only chance, just that he’s our best candidate to run. Best to me means strongest, not that if we didn’t have him run we’d be cooked. Any decent Democrat could theoretically win in a Trump midterm. The quality of candidate gulf between Golden and someone else politically speaking running against Collins is rather large, so I view him as our best possible recruit (even though I don’t actually want him to run).
He won’t run against Collins. He used to work for her and they like each other.
He specifically did not rule out running for Senate. Regardless of whether he like Collins or not, I don't think he would pass on the Senate if the opportunity arose. Hell, there's a bunch of primary challengers right now that are running against their former bosses. If he's not looking for an executive role going up against Collins and only having to run once every 3 cycles is far more appealing than trying to survive every cycle in ME-02 and waiting for King to retire.
I’m pretty positive he’d get more liberal by representing the entire state. People need to remember that members of Congress do try to represent their districts in order to get elected, it’s not all about your personal opinions. Sen. Gillibrand was trashed up and down for getting picked to replace Hillary bc her House record was so moderate and look where she is now. Representing the constituency and winning the election is the whole point of running so I’m sure he’d act accordingly.
Republicans of course never have to worry about this. They’re all nuts at this point or at least willing to support one.
The last time people said this would happen with a rep becoming senator, we got Sinema, and they based it on the same Gillibrand pathway from before.
My take is that it's something we would struggle to truly know. Is Golden's ideological record right now representative of who he truly is, and it works out well because that's what he needs to win ME-02? Is he actually further to the left and he has to moderate himself to win office? Maybe he's the odd duck that's actually further to the right and feels he has no real room to act that way while still winning a dem primary?
We do not know. We should never bank on a candidate dramatically moving to the left once they become a senator.
The way he talks about his "progressive conservative" philosophy, he seems more Sinema than Gillibrand or Walz, atleast to me. Some Blue Dogs are true ideologues like Sinema while others like Walz represented the views of their constituents.
Pope Francis passed away at 88
The College of Cardinals is the electorate here. There are 135 voting-eligible members (Cardinals under the age of 80), although Varican law allows a maximum of 120 voting members. Not sure how they'll square that.
At present, 80% of the 135 were appointed by Francis. A two-thirds majority is necessary for election, so if nearly all of the Francis Cardinals stick together for a progressive candidate, it should be okay, unless they stick to the 120 maximum and lop off 15 Francis Cardinals. Only 5 JPII Cardinals left, which is good. My uneducated guess is Parolin (familiarity among the College) or de Rocha (continuity).
So we won't know who the new Pope is until early May once the nine days of mourning for Francis is complete.
I'm guessing where the Cardinal is from will be more relevant than their views-another non-European Cardinal will be the favorite.
Apparently the "120" limit is ... less than clear: https://www.pillarcatholic.com/p/is-there-really-a-limit-on-the-number
Based on that article it sounds like the appropriate meme would be Captain Barbossa saying that the 120 voting Cardinals is more of a guideline than an actual rule.
😂
"Don't say 'conclave'!"
Parolin or Zuppi seem to be the best guesses. Then again, he who enters the conclave a Pope leaves a Cardinal. Bergoglio was a super unlikely choice in 2013
The most interesting fact I've found about this so far is that in the 2013 conclave, 52% of the participating cardinals were from Europe. This time, of the 135 eligible cardinals, only 39% are from Europe.
Maybe this could increase the chances of another non-European pope?
I think a non European has a good chance. Ironically, that may make for a more conservative Pope, especially if they’re an African
what is the problem with a European Pope? Not Catholic and not really up on the politics of the Vatican except I know there have been some pretty extreme Popes in the past
No problems at all. There’s just speculation that since the Church’s growth and the balance of faithful bring in the developing world that the Church may find purchase in going outside of Europe yet again in acknowledgement of that
Not if it’s Tagle from the Philippines. He’s the most likely to carry on Francis’s legacy.
Tagle I think would have a harder time in a conclave now than a few years ago with some allegations of helping cover up sexual abuse out there. You can check the same boxes with Besungu it you want somebody outside of Europe with a similar reformist profile
may the next pontiff be as open minded as his holiness was. not without mistakes but a welcome break from the previous series of pontiffs
I said "damn" out loud when I got an email this morning titled "remembering Pope Francis." He died after having double pneumonia, a reminder for those of us over 50 to get pneumonococcus shots. I haven't gotten mine yet this year, and it will be my first since the CDC guidelines changed (and who knows what they might be and whether the vaccine will be covered by U.S. insurance policies next year!).
Of possible interest to the TDB community. The New Hampshire House Dems are hiring a Caucus Director for the 2025-26 cycle. More details here: https://bsky.app/profile/the-downballot.com/post/3lndmo7uqec2w
Georgia State Senator Jason Esteves launched a bid for governor today making him the first Democrat to officially announce:
“I’m running to be the next Governor of Georgia.
As a former teacher, small business owner, dad, and state senator, I’ve seen Georgia’s potential because I’ve lived it. Georgia families are just looking for a fair shot.
I’m Jason Esteves, and I know that together we can build a better Georgia.”
Video here: https://bsky.app/profile/jasonesteves.bsky.social/post/3lncygy7i7s2o
Esteves honestly has a good background-but I'm not convinced he could beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in a primary.
Who is the stronger GE candidate?
Probably Esteves-Lance Bottoms had major problems as Mayor of Atlanta, and it's certainly plausible her service in the Biden Administration will be a net negative with Independents.
He can beat her. Shes not very popular her among Dems I talk to. Esteves has also been the state party treasurer so those people that know him like him
Jason Carter or Lucy McBath would be much better in my opinion!! 💙🇺🇲
Both of their spouses have cancer unfortunately so they declined to run
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/21/former-fox-news-host-steve-hilton-running-california-governor-00301302
CA-GOV-former Fox News host and David Cameron adviser Steve Hilton is in.
good luck! :-)
VA-Lt. Gov: Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity dropped out, leaving Richmond talk show host John Reid as the last Republican standing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/04/21/herrity-virginia-lieutenant-governor-john-reid/
Reid is a talk show host who's never held political office, which doesn't sound like a particularly promising resume for a statewide candidate in a state where his party label isn't an advantage. That doesn't make him E.W. Jackson 2.0, but much of his platform, including complaining about "divisive wokeness", school "indoctrination", and prosecuting "rioters and looters" feels stale at best. This isn't 2021 and he isn't Glenn Youngkin.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/01/27/virginia-lieutenant-governor-race-john-reid/
Virginia Dems should start doing opposition research on Reid now (as well as Sears and Miyares). With a career as a talk show host, he has probably made a lot of controversial statements over the years, which can be used against him in the general election.
NYC-Mayor:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/21/house-republican-seeks-prosecution-of-former-new-york-governor-00301656
Andrew Cuomo might be under indictment by primary day-remember the mess during COVID-19 with New York's nursing homes?
Something tells me that reference for prosecution by House Republicans and the Trump Justice Department is not necessarily a deathblow in a Democratic primary in NY, or in most other places. Nor will it elect Curtis Sliwa or Eric Adams in the general.
Of course, there's still time to consolidate around someone else. But that's running shorter and shorter....
Given WHY Cuomo would be indicted, it easily could be a death blow-unlike most people Trump is targeting, the nursing home scandal could have easily had him indicted on Manslaughter or Depraved Indifference Murder.
I seriously doubt its going to affect the primary much. People here didn't much care about this issue when it first came up. Unless they have him in a black hole in El Salvador, it won't move the needle much.
"Unless they have him in a black hole in El Salvador, it won't move the needle much." Don't give them any ideas....
I doubt an indictment would happen that quickly.
SC-01
Professional victim and reality show star wannabe Nancy Mace filmed herself getting into an argument with a gay man inside a grocery store over why Mace is dodging townhalls like most Republicans these days. The lowlights of the argument was Mace saying, "fuck you" twice to this man. She also mentioned twice that she voted for gay marriage.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/nancy-mace-yells-f-you-at-constituent-in-skin-care-aisle/
Nancy Mace is the fakest of the fake (see also: Vance, JD). She got her start in politics with a Tea Party challenge to Lindsey Graham that went down like a lead balloon, then became "moderate" to beat Joe Cunningham in then-light red SC-01, and then became hardcore MAGA when the district was redrawn redder.
She's a weathervane and nothing more. I honestly don't think she truly believes *anything.*
She's the Riley Gaines of Politics known for losing to 4 women and 1 trans woman in a swimming contest.