Potential 2026 candidates for light red to red states.
It would be disastrous to nominate Blue Dog "Progressive Conservative" Golden in Maine, isn't there any other politician either from the state legislature or a mayor? He's much more conservative than Peltola or Marie G Perez. Susan Collins has a very low approval among Harris voters, I'm sure she won't survive 2026.
Potential 2026 candidates for light red to red states.
It would be disastrous to nominate Blue Dog "Progressive Conservative" Golden in Maine, isn't there any other politician either from the state legislature or a mayor? He's much more conservative than Peltola or Marie G Perez. Susan Collins has a very low approval among Harris voters, I'm sure she won't survive 2026.
One of the few times I've agreed with Sosik. The country has shown time and again in polls that they prefer someone moderately liberal on social issues and progressive on economics.
People didn't feel the effects due to post pandemic and Russian invasion's supply shocks. His other priorities like higher minimum wage, a public health insurance option and paid family leave were dead on arrival due to Manchin and Sinema.
People didn't know Biden was economically progressive, since he didn't have much rhetoric about it. Like it or not, rhetoric is just as important as actual actions in this case.
Biden also made Silent Cal seem like a braggart by comparison, at least during his Presidential term. You gotta sell it or else it's a tree falling in the forest.
The point is you can “sell” your views all you want. At the end of the day though voters have to care. They didn’t. They wanted to pretend COVID never happened and they wanted 2019 back.
There are socially conservative, hate Democrats like a team sport and Dan Osborn and Sherrod Brown did run far ahead of Harris. They are left wing on economics.
Moreover, I was talking about national politics and issue based polls.
Troy Jackson would be the strongest candidate they could put up against Collins, imo. But he's running for governor. There's some talk about Janet Mills running for senator, although she's no youngster.
Yeah, I would have much preferred Jackson run for Senate.
It's not unusual for politicians (especially from small states) to like each other and not want to run against each other. I suspect that's one of the issues at play here.
its not a question of dislike, i believe the original comity comment related to Collins. Jackson knows that as a popular far northern Maine former state senate president he is a stronger GE Governor candidate than bellows, who is admittedly not from Portland but Kennebec county is Augusta and mainers have an unnatural hate for those from the Portland Augusta Metro Area. My parents have lived in York County (southern Maine) for the last thirty years and they're still referred to as the New Yorkers
I think putting it in terms of stronger/weaker candidate as their reasoning to run is wrong.
Jackson would run for governor because he wants to be governor. Bellows is running for governor because she wants to be governor. They might also think they are stronger than other potential candidates, but 99% of the time that is not going to be the core justification for someone running for office.
Golden won't run against Collins. He worked for her at one time and I'm pretty sure they're still cordial.
And even though I'm not a huge fan of his politics, I do admire the fact that he's managed to defeat three decently-strong opponents over four campaigns. Peltola (whom I adore) couldn't defeat a non-Sarah Palin opponent, and I suspect that Gluesenkamp Perez will struggle mightily against anyone not named Joe Kent.
Still running 11 points over Harris while being a reliable enough vote for Democrats unlike Golden is no easy feat to pull off in Alaska. I'd argue that Peltola is the key to taking back the Senate and denying Alito and Thomas a retirement if she decides to run in 2026.
The article says that Democrats want her to run for Senate while a rating agency (maybe Cook IDR) reported that she was leaning towards governor early this year.
Gluesenkamp Perez's district seems to be getting less red (go ahead and fact check me on that if I'm incorrect). Certainly she's gone in the next GOP-leaning cycle but I think she's well-positioned to survive the next cycle with the current trajectory.
Hard to compare because of different environments and different district borders. Wiki says the 2020 redistricting made it slightly redder. Has the 2020 presidential results as 51-46 (R-D, same for all other numbers I list here), and 2024 as 50-47. It's not clear to me if the former number is the numbers for the current borders or not. Either way that would point at it getting a decent bit less red. The shift from 2020 to 2024 wasn't that big in WA but the district still moved leftward slightly.
Guaranteed same map has 2022 senate at 54-46 and 2024 senate at 50-49. Cantwell did ~4 points better in 2024 than Murray did in 2022, so by that metric the district moved 3-4ish points less red.
Actually with that kind of trend it's not impossible that MGP could win in the next red year if it's enough cycles away. If it's not until 2030 or so that could give her time to really cement herself + for the district to hopefully move a bit more towards her.
Best realistic configuration to beat Collins and hold the existing stuff is:
Troy Jackson -> ME-02
Shenna Bellows -> Gov
Jared Golden -> Senate
Golden is too conservative for the state as a whole, but if he can beat Collins its worth it. I'd also wonder if you would trend a little more liberal as time goes on if he's representing the entire state instead of ME-02.
I’d much rather have an entrenched Democratic incumbent that can win in bad years and good years against strong opponents in a Trump seat. Those are extremely rare candidates (just ask how many of those people Democrats have left, he’s basically it) key to any party’s majority (like the Biden district R’s in 2022 were key to their majority).
Golden can stay right where he is for as long as possible. He even moved left on guns after the school massacre in Lewiston in that rural district and STILL got a vote of confidence from constituents in 2024. Don’t mess with a good thing with some multidimensional chess pundit political thinking. The voters there like him and trust him.
Doing what you say above may end up with Democrats losing all 3 races (though I do agree with you that Golden is by far the best candidate to take on Collins).
I am not so sure, he describes himself as a progressive conservative, proposed a 15 percent universal tariff, totally supports Trump tariffs with false claims like Americans don't own stocks, was the lone vote for the funding bill in the house and more. Sounds like a Manchinema type.
Maine is a blue state, the country is as polarized as it can be and ticket spitting has been dying, it can definitely give us a liberal senator.
I’m not talking about my political preference for Maine’s Senate seat, I thought that was rather obvious. But politically speaking he is inarguably the strongest candidate to take on Collins ie: the best candidate Democrats could potentially have.
The only votes I care about in Congress are for majority leader and whether their vote is the difference between a bill passing or failing. Beyond that he can say or do the most batshit insane things I disagree with and I’ll still support him in that seat so the tariff crap I just brush aside. Political power only matters once you get it, not before. If this keeps him in Congress, by all means Trump tariff vote on every bill.
If you disagree that’s totally cool! But I’m not going to be convinced by anything anyone says as to why Golden is bad for “x” reason. It doesn’t matter to me at all.
This is very well put in terms of Golden's value and positioning. TBH, though, with the type of year 2026 is shaping up to be, I'm not sure we need him to beat Collins. I think Jackson or really any decent Dem could probably do it....
Oh absolutely! I never said Golden was our only chance, just that he’s our best candidate to run. Best to me means strongest, not that if we didn’t have him run we’d be cooked. Any decent Democrat could theoretically win in a Trump midterm. The quality of candidate gulf between Golden and someone else politically speaking running against Collins is rather large, so I view him as our best possible recruit (even though I don’t actually want him to run).
He specifically did not rule out running for Senate. Regardless of whether he like Collins or not, I don't think he would pass on the Senate if the opportunity arose. Hell, there's a bunch of primary challengers right now that are running against their former bosses. If he's not looking for an executive role going up against Collins and only having to run once every 3 cycles is far more appealing than trying to survive every cycle in ME-02 and waiting for King to retire.
I’m pretty positive he’d get more liberal by representing the entire state. People need to remember that members of Congress do try to represent their districts in order to get elected, it’s not all about your personal opinions. Sen. Gillibrand was trashed up and down for getting picked to replace Hillary bc her House record was so moderate and look where she is now. Representing the constituency and winning the election is the whole point of running so I’m sure he’d act accordingly.
Republicans of course never have to worry about this. They’re all nuts at this point or at least willing to support one.
The last time people said this would happen with a rep becoming senator, we got Sinema, and they based it on the same Gillibrand pathway from before.
My take is that it's something we would struggle to truly know. Is Golden's ideological record right now representative of who he truly is, and it works out well because that's what he needs to win ME-02? Is he actually further to the left and he has to moderate himself to win office? Maybe he's the odd duck that's actually further to the right and feels he has no real room to act that way while still winning a dem primary?
We do not know. We should never bank on a candidate dramatically moving to the left once they become a senator.
The way he talks about his "progressive conservative" philosophy, he seems more Sinema than Gillibrand or Walz, atleast to me. Some Blue Dogs are true ideologues like Sinema while others like Walz represented the views of their constituents.
Potential 2026 candidates for light red to red states.
It would be disastrous to nominate Blue Dog "Progressive Conservative" Golden in Maine, isn't there any other politician either from the state legislature or a mayor? He's much more conservative than Peltola or Marie G Perez. Susan Collins has a very low approval among Harris voters, I'm sure she won't survive 2026.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/20/politics/democrat-crisis-recruitment-campaigns/index.html
‘A Prerequisite for Democrats to Come Back to Power’
Longtime Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik has some advice for the party — including to embrace the populist economics of Bernie Sanders and AOC.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/20/democrats-strategy-bernie-sanders-aoc-00299416
One of the few times I've agreed with Sosik. The country has shown time and again in polls that they prefer someone moderately liberal on social issues and progressive on economics.
Biden was the economically most progressive President since LBJ and it served him zero political dividends.
People didn't feel the effects due to post pandemic and Russian invasion's supply shocks. His other priorities like higher minimum wage, a public health insurance option and paid family leave were dead on arrival due to Manchin and Sinema.
People didn't know Biden was economically progressive, since he didn't have much rhetoric about it. Like it or not, rhetoric is just as important as actual actions in this case.
Biden also made Silent Cal seem like a braggart by comparison, at least during his Presidential term. You gotta sell it or else it's a tree falling in the forest.
Biden made speeches like this all around the country during his 4 years and the media simply didn't cover it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IpaiJsjntk
This isn't the 90s. You can't expect the media to come to you anymore. You have to go to them, aggressively and all the time.
The point is you can “sell” your views all you want. At the end of the day though voters have to care. They didn’t. They wanted to pretend COVID never happened and they wanted 2019 back.
If that’s the case why aren’t we seeing people “progressive on economics” winning in purple and red states?
There are socially conservative, hate Democrats like a team sport and Dan Osborn and Sherrod Brown did run far ahead of Harris. They are left wing on economics.
Moreover, I was talking about national politics and issue based polls.
Troy Jackson would be the strongest candidate they could put up against Collins, imo. But he's running for governor. There's some talk about Janet Mills running for senator, although she's no youngster.
Yeah, I would have much preferred Jackson run for Senate.
It's not unusual for politicians (especially from small states) to like each other and not want to run against each other. I suspect that's one of the issues at play here.
Why does Jackson not like Bellows?
its not a question of dislike, i believe the original comity comment related to Collins. Jackson knows that as a popular far northern Maine former state senate president he is a stronger GE Governor candidate than bellows, who is admittedly not from Portland but Kennebec county is Augusta and mainers have an unnatural hate for those from the Portland Augusta Metro Area. My parents have lived in York County (southern Maine) for the last thirty years and they're still referred to as the New Yorkers
I think putting it in terms of stronger/weaker candidate as their reasoning to run is wrong.
Jackson would run for governor because he wants to be governor. Bellows is running for governor because she wants to be governor. They might also think they are stronger than other potential candidates, but 99% of the time that is not going to be the core justification for someone running for office.
Either Chellie or Hannah Pingree would be fine with me.
Golden won't run against Collins. He worked for her at one time and I'm pretty sure they're still cordial.
And even though I'm not a huge fan of his politics, I do admire the fact that he's managed to defeat three decently-strong opponents over four campaigns. Peltola (whom I adore) couldn't defeat a non-Sarah Palin opponent, and I suspect that Gluesenkamp Perez will struggle mightily against anyone not named Joe Kent.
I hope you're correct about Collins and Golden.
Still running 11 points over Harris while being a reliable enough vote for Democrats unlike Golden is no easy feat to pull off in Alaska. I'd argue that Peltola is the key to taking back the Senate and denying Alito and Thomas a retirement if she decides to run in 2026.
I thought Peltola is leaning more towards a gubernatorial run next year.
She joked late last year that she would run for governor, U.S. Senate and the at large Congressional seat all at once.
I think she'd be a good fit for governor.
The article says that Democrats want her to run for Senate while a rating agency (maybe Cook IDR) reported that she was leaning towards governor early this year.
There's been nothing overly strong to my knowledge, but the expectations point at her running for governor much more likely than for senate or house.
Gluesenkamp Perez's district seems to be getting less red (go ahead and fact check me on that if I'm incorrect). Certainly she's gone in the next GOP-leaning cycle but I think she's well-positioned to survive the next cycle with the current trajectory.
Hard to compare because of different environments and different district borders. Wiki says the 2020 redistricting made it slightly redder. Has the 2020 presidential results as 51-46 (R-D, same for all other numbers I list here), and 2024 as 50-47. It's not clear to me if the former number is the numbers for the current borders or not. Either way that would point at it getting a decent bit less red. The shift from 2020 to 2024 wasn't that big in WA but the district still moved leftward slightly.
Guaranteed same map has 2022 senate at 54-46 and 2024 senate at 50-49. Cantwell did ~4 points better in 2024 than Murray did in 2022, so by that metric the district moved 3-4ish points less red.
Actually with that kind of trend it's not impossible that MGP could win in the next red year if it's enough cycles away. If it's not until 2030 or so that could give her time to really cement herself + for the district to hopefully move a bit more towards her.
Best realistic configuration to beat Collins and hold the existing stuff is:
Troy Jackson -> ME-02
Shenna Bellows -> Gov
Jared Golden -> Senate
Golden is too conservative for the state as a whole, but if he can beat Collins its worth it. I'd also wonder if you would trend a little more liberal as time goes on if he's representing the entire state instead of ME-02.
I’d much rather have an entrenched Democratic incumbent that can win in bad years and good years against strong opponents in a Trump seat. Those are extremely rare candidates (just ask how many of those people Democrats have left, he’s basically it) key to any party’s majority (like the Biden district R’s in 2022 were key to their majority).
Golden can stay right where he is for as long as possible. He even moved left on guns after the school massacre in Lewiston in that rural district and STILL got a vote of confidence from constituents in 2024. Don’t mess with a good thing with some multidimensional chess pundit political thinking. The voters there like him and trust him.
Doing what you say above may end up with Democrats losing all 3 races (though I do agree with you that Golden is by far the best candidate to take on Collins).
I am not so sure, he describes himself as a progressive conservative, proposed a 15 percent universal tariff, totally supports Trump tariffs with false claims like Americans don't own stocks, was the lone vote for the funding bill in the house and more. Sounds like a Manchinema type.
Maine is a blue state, the country is as polarized as it can be and ticket spitting has been dying, it can definitely give us a liberal senator.
I’m not talking about my political preference for Maine’s Senate seat, I thought that was rather obvious. But politically speaking he is inarguably the strongest candidate to take on Collins ie: the best candidate Democrats could potentially have.
The only votes I care about in Congress are for majority leader and whether their vote is the difference between a bill passing or failing. Beyond that he can say or do the most batshit insane things I disagree with and I’ll still support him in that seat so the tariff crap I just brush aside. Political power only matters once you get it, not before. If this keeps him in Congress, by all means Trump tariff vote on every bill.
If you disagree that’s totally cool! But I’m not going to be convinced by anything anyone says as to why Golden is bad for “x” reason. It doesn’t matter to me at all.
I really wonder about that. I feel like a Republican could easily run to the "left" of Golden on tariffs.
Nitpick: the mass shooting in Maine was in Lewiston. There's no such place in Maine called Lewisburg.
I’m sorry, I was going off my memory, I’ll edit it, thanks!
This is very well put in terms of Golden's value and positioning. TBH, though, with the type of year 2026 is shaping up to be, I'm not sure we need him to beat Collins. I think Jackson or really any decent Dem could probably do it....
Oh absolutely! I never said Golden was our only chance, just that he’s our best candidate to run. Best to me means strongest, not that if we didn’t have him run we’d be cooked. Any decent Democrat could theoretically win in a Trump midterm. The quality of candidate gulf between Golden and someone else politically speaking running against Collins is rather large, so I view him as our best possible recruit (even though I don’t actually want him to run).
He won’t run against Collins. He used to work for her and they like each other.
He specifically did not rule out running for Senate. Regardless of whether he like Collins or not, I don't think he would pass on the Senate if the opportunity arose. Hell, there's a bunch of primary challengers right now that are running against their former bosses. If he's not looking for an executive role going up against Collins and only having to run once every 3 cycles is far more appealing than trying to survive every cycle in ME-02 and waiting for King to retire.
I’m pretty positive he’d get more liberal by representing the entire state. People need to remember that members of Congress do try to represent their districts in order to get elected, it’s not all about your personal opinions. Sen. Gillibrand was trashed up and down for getting picked to replace Hillary bc her House record was so moderate and look where she is now. Representing the constituency and winning the election is the whole point of running so I’m sure he’d act accordingly.
Republicans of course never have to worry about this. They’re all nuts at this point or at least willing to support one.
The last time people said this would happen with a rep becoming senator, we got Sinema, and they based it on the same Gillibrand pathway from before.
My take is that it's something we would struggle to truly know. Is Golden's ideological record right now representative of who he truly is, and it works out well because that's what he needs to win ME-02? Is he actually further to the left and he has to moderate himself to win office? Maybe he's the odd duck that's actually further to the right and feels he has no real room to act that way while still winning a dem primary?
We do not know. We should never bank on a candidate dramatically moving to the left once they become a senator.
The way he talks about his "progressive conservative" philosophy, he seems more Sinema than Gillibrand or Walz, atleast to me. Some Blue Dogs are true ideologues like Sinema while others like Walz represented the views of their constituents.