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Brad Warren's avatar

Golden won't run against Collins. He worked for her at one time and I'm pretty sure they're still cordial.

And even though I'm not a huge fan of his politics, I do admire the fact that he's managed to defeat three decently-strong opponents over four campaigns. Peltola (whom I adore) couldn't defeat a non-Sarah Palin opponent, and I suspect that Gluesenkamp Perez will struggle mightily against anyone not named Joe Kent.

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PollJunkie's avatar

I hope you're correct about Collins and Golden.

Still running 11 points over Harris while being a reliable enough vote for Democrats unlike Golden is no easy feat to pull off in Alaska. I'd argue that Peltola is the key to taking back the Senate and denying Alito and Thomas a retirement if she decides to run in 2026.

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FeingoldFan's avatar

I thought Peltola is leaning more towards a gubernatorial run next year.

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MPC's avatar

She joked late last year that she would run for governor, U.S. Senate and the at large Congressional seat all at once.

I think she'd be a good fit for governor.

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PollJunkie's avatar

The article says that Democrats want her to run for Senate while a rating agency (maybe Cook IDR) reported that she was leaning towards governor early this year.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

There's been nothing overly strong to my knowledge, but the expectations point at her running for governor much more likely than for senate or house.

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Mark's avatar

Gluesenkamp Perez's district seems to be getting less red (go ahead and fact check me on that if I'm incorrect). Certainly she's gone in the next GOP-leaning cycle but I think she's well-positioned to survive the next cycle with the current trajectory.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Hard to compare because of different environments and different district borders. Wiki says the 2020 redistricting made it slightly redder. Has the 2020 presidential results as 51-46 (R-D, same for all other numbers I list here), and 2024 as 50-47. It's not clear to me if the former number is the numbers for the current borders or not. Either way that would point at it getting a decent bit less red. The shift from 2020 to 2024 wasn't that big in WA but the district still moved leftward slightly.

Guaranteed same map has 2022 senate at 54-46 and 2024 senate at 50-49. Cantwell did ~4 points better in 2024 than Murray did in 2022, so by that metric the district moved 3-4ish points less red.

Actually with that kind of trend it's not impossible that MGP could win in the next red year if it's enough cycles away. If it's not until 2030 or so that could give her time to really cement herself + for the district to hopefully move a bit more towards her.

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