Best realistic configuration to beat Collins and hold the existing stuff is:
Troy Jackson -> ME-02
Shenna Bellows -> Gov
Jared Golden -> Senate
Golden is too conservative for the state as a whole, but if he can beat Collins its worth it. I'd also wonder if you would trend a little more liberal as time goes on if he's representing the entire state instead of ME-02.
Best realistic configuration to beat Collins and hold the existing stuff is:
Troy Jackson -> ME-02
Shenna Bellows -> Gov
Jared Golden -> Senate
Golden is too conservative for the state as a whole, but if he can beat Collins its worth it. I'd also wonder if you would trend a little more liberal as time goes on if he's representing the entire state instead of ME-02.
I’d much rather have an entrenched Democratic incumbent that can win in bad years and good years against strong opponents in a Trump seat. Those are extremely rare candidates (just ask how many of those people Democrats have left, he’s basically it) key to any party’s majority (like the Biden district R’s in 2022 were key to their majority).
Golden can stay right where he is for as long as possible. He even moved left on guns after the school massacre in Lewiston in that rural district and STILL got a vote of confidence from constituents in 2024. Don’t mess with a good thing with some multidimensional chess pundit political thinking. The voters there like him and trust him.
Doing what you say above may end up with Democrats losing all 3 races (though I do agree with you that Golden is by far the best candidate to take on Collins).
I am not so sure, he describes himself as a progressive conservative, proposed a 15 percent universal tariff, totally supports Trump tariffs with false claims like Americans don't own stocks, was the lone vote for the funding bill in the house and more. Sounds like a Manchinema type.
Maine is a blue state, the country is as polarized as it can be and ticket spitting has been dying, it can definitely give us a liberal senator.
I’m not talking about my political preference for Maine’s Senate seat, I thought that was rather obvious. But politically speaking he is inarguably the strongest candidate to take on Collins ie: the best candidate Democrats could potentially have.
The only votes I care about in Congress are for majority leader and whether their vote is the difference between a bill passing or failing. Beyond that he can say or do the most batshit insane things I disagree with and I’ll still support him in that seat so the tariff crap I just brush aside. Political power only matters once you get it, not before. If this keeps him in Congress, by all means Trump tariff vote on every bill.
If you disagree that’s totally cool! But I’m not going to be convinced by anything anyone says as to why Golden is bad for “x” reason. It doesn’t matter to me at all.
This is very well put in terms of Golden's value and positioning. TBH, though, with the type of year 2026 is shaping up to be, I'm not sure we need him to beat Collins. I think Jackson or really any decent Dem could probably do it....
Oh absolutely! I never said Golden was our only chance, just that he’s our best candidate to run. Best to me means strongest, not that if we didn’t have him run we’d be cooked. Any decent Democrat could theoretically win in a Trump midterm. The quality of candidate gulf between Golden and someone else politically speaking running against Collins is rather large, so I view him as our best possible recruit (even though I don’t actually want him to run).
He specifically did not rule out running for Senate. Regardless of whether he like Collins or not, I don't think he would pass on the Senate if the opportunity arose. Hell, there's a bunch of primary challengers right now that are running against their former bosses. If he's not looking for an executive role going up against Collins and only having to run once every 3 cycles is far more appealing than trying to survive every cycle in ME-02 and waiting for King to retire.
I’m pretty positive he’d get more liberal by representing the entire state. People need to remember that members of Congress do try to represent their districts in order to get elected, it’s not all about your personal opinions. Sen. Gillibrand was trashed up and down for getting picked to replace Hillary bc her House record was so moderate and look where she is now. Representing the constituency and winning the election is the whole point of running so I’m sure he’d act accordingly.
Republicans of course never have to worry about this. They’re all nuts at this point or at least willing to support one.
The last time people said this would happen with a rep becoming senator, we got Sinema, and they based it on the same Gillibrand pathway from before.
My take is that it's something we would struggle to truly know. Is Golden's ideological record right now representative of who he truly is, and it works out well because that's what he needs to win ME-02? Is he actually further to the left and he has to moderate himself to win office? Maybe he's the odd duck that's actually further to the right and feels he has no real room to act that way while still winning a dem primary?
We do not know. We should never bank on a candidate dramatically moving to the left once they become a senator.
The way he talks about his "progressive conservative" philosophy, he seems more Sinema than Gillibrand or Walz, atleast to me. Some Blue Dogs are true ideologues like Sinema while others like Walz represented the views of their constituents.
Best realistic configuration to beat Collins and hold the existing stuff is:
Troy Jackson -> ME-02
Shenna Bellows -> Gov
Jared Golden -> Senate
Golden is too conservative for the state as a whole, but if he can beat Collins its worth it. I'd also wonder if you would trend a little more liberal as time goes on if he's representing the entire state instead of ME-02.
I’d much rather have an entrenched Democratic incumbent that can win in bad years and good years against strong opponents in a Trump seat. Those are extremely rare candidates (just ask how many of those people Democrats have left, he’s basically it) key to any party’s majority (like the Biden district R’s in 2022 were key to their majority).
Golden can stay right where he is for as long as possible. He even moved left on guns after the school massacre in Lewiston in that rural district and STILL got a vote of confidence from constituents in 2024. Don’t mess with a good thing with some multidimensional chess pundit political thinking. The voters there like him and trust him.
Doing what you say above may end up with Democrats losing all 3 races (though I do agree with you that Golden is by far the best candidate to take on Collins).
I am not so sure, he describes himself as a progressive conservative, proposed a 15 percent universal tariff, totally supports Trump tariffs with false claims like Americans don't own stocks, was the lone vote for the funding bill in the house and more. Sounds like a Manchinema type.
Maine is a blue state, the country is as polarized as it can be and ticket spitting has been dying, it can definitely give us a liberal senator.
I’m not talking about my political preference for Maine’s Senate seat, I thought that was rather obvious. But politically speaking he is inarguably the strongest candidate to take on Collins ie: the best candidate Democrats could potentially have.
The only votes I care about in Congress are for majority leader and whether their vote is the difference between a bill passing or failing. Beyond that he can say or do the most batshit insane things I disagree with and I’ll still support him in that seat so the tariff crap I just brush aside. Political power only matters once you get it, not before. If this keeps him in Congress, by all means Trump tariff vote on every bill.
If you disagree that’s totally cool! But I’m not going to be convinced by anything anyone says as to why Golden is bad for “x” reason. It doesn’t matter to me at all.
I really wonder about that. I feel like a Republican could easily run to the "left" of Golden on tariffs.
Nitpick: the mass shooting in Maine was in Lewiston. There's no such place in Maine called Lewisburg.
I’m sorry, I was going off my memory, I’ll edit it, thanks!
This is very well put in terms of Golden's value and positioning. TBH, though, with the type of year 2026 is shaping up to be, I'm not sure we need him to beat Collins. I think Jackson or really any decent Dem could probably do it....
Oh absolutely! I never said Golden was our only chance, just that he’s our best candidate to run. Best to me means strongest, not that if we didn’t have him run we’d be cooked. Any decent Democrat could theoretically win in a Trump midterm. The quality of candidate gulf between Golden and someone else politically speaking running against Collins is rather large, so I view him as our best possible recruit (even though I don’t actually want him to run).
He won’t run against Collins. He used to work for her and they like each other.
He specifically did not rule out running for Senate. Regardless of whether he like Collins or not, I don't think he would pass on the Senate if the opportunity arose. Hell, there's a bunch of primary challengers right now that are running against their former bosses. If he's not looking for an executive role going up against Collins and only having to run once every 3 cycles is far more appealing than trying to survive every cycle in ME-02 and waiting for King to retire.
I’m pretty positive he’d get more liberal by representing the entire state. People need to remember that members of Congress do try to represent their districts in order to get elected, it’s not all about your personal opinions. Sen. Gillibrand was trashed up and down for getting picked to replace Hillary bc her House record was so moderate and look where she is now. Representing the constituency and winning the election is the whole point of running so I’m sure he’d act accordingly.
Republicans of course never have to worry about this. They’re all nuts at this point or at least willing to support one.
The last time people said this would happen with a rep becoming senator, we got Sinema, and they based it on the same Gillibrand pathway from before.
My take is that it's something we would struggle to truly know. Is Golden's ideological record right now representative of who he truly is, and it works out well because that's what he needs to win ME-02? Is he actually further to the left and he has to moderate himself to win office? Maybe he's the odd duck that's actually further to the right and feels he has no real room to act that way while still winning a dem primary?
We do not know. We should never bank on a candidate dramatically moving to the left once they become a senator.
The way he talks about his "progressive conservative" philosophy, he seems more Sinema than Gillibrand or Walz, atleast to me. Some Blue Dogs are true ideologues like Sinema while others like Walz represented the views of their constituents.