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rayspace's avatar

The College of Cardinals is the electorate here. There are 135 voting-eligible members (Cardinals under the age of 80), although Varican law allows a maximum of 120 voting members. Not sure how they'll square that.

At present, 80% of the 135 were appointed by Francis. A two-thirds majority is necessary for election, so if nearly all of the Francis Cardinals stick together for a progressive candidate, it should be okay, unless they stick to the 120 maximum and lop off 15 Francis Cardinals. Only 5 JPII Cardinals left, which is good. My uneducated guess is Parolin (familiarity among the College) or de Rocha (continuity).

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MPC's avatar

So we won't know who the new Pope is until early May once the nine days of mourning for Francis is complete.

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Harrison Konigstein's avatar

I'm guessing where the Cardinal is from will be more relevant than their views-another non-European Cardinal will be the favorite.

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David Nir's avatar

Apparently the "120" limit is ... less than clear: https://www.pillarcatholic.com/p/is-there-really-a-limit-on-the-number

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Marcus Graly's avatar

Based on that article it sounds like the appropriate meme would be Captain Barbossa saying that the 120 voting Cardinals is more of a guideline than an actual rule.

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David Nir's avatar

😂

"Don't say 'conclave'!"

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Henrik's avatar

Parolin or Zuppi seem to be the best guesses. Then again, he who enters the conclave a Pope leaves a Cardinal. Bergoglio was a super unlikely choice in 2013

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Kildere53's avatar

The most interesting fact I've found about this so far is that in the 2013 conclave, 52% of the participating cardinals were from Europe. This time, of the 135 eligible cardinals, only 39% are from Europe.

Maybe this could increase the chances of another non-European pope?

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Henrik's avatar

I think a non European has a good chance. Ironically, that may make for a more conservative Pope, especially if they’re an African

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Burt Kloner's avatar

what is the problem with a European Pope? Not Catholic and not really up on the politics of the Vatican except I know there have been some pretty extreme Popes in the past

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Henrik's avatar

No problems at all. There’s just speculation that since the Church’s growth and the balance of faithful bring in the developing world that the Church may find purchase in going outside of Europe yet again in acknowledgement of that

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Paleo's avatar

Not if it’s Tagle from the Philippines. He’s the most likely to carry on Francis’s legacy.

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Henrik's avatar

Tagle I think would have a harder time in a conclave now than a few years ago with some allegations of helping cover up sexual abuse out there. You can check the same boxes with Besungu it you want somebody outside of Europe with a similar reformist profile

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