Morning Digest: It was a huge year at the ballot box. Help us keep going.

As the stakes get even higher in 2026, we'll keep covering every important election, every day

Leading Off

Wow—what a difference a year makes!

After Donald Trump managed to win a second term last year, the despair, disgust, anger, and fear that ricocheted around the nation were palpable. Those emotions were also entirely understandable. At various points, I’ve felt them all myself.

But the day after the election, I wrote a piece that I remain proud of. I noted that the concept of “free and fair elections” is not a binary one, that “even deeply flawed elections still have the power to bring about change.” And I emphasized that American democracy could not be killed overnight, “because the way we conduct our elections is too decentralized for even the most fervent authoritarian to subvert in its entirety.”

As 2025 proved in emphatic fashion, these observations were spot-on.

Almost immediately after Trump was sworn in—even before his unpopularity sank to new depths—supporters of democracy began winning elections. And I’m not just talking about the huge overperformances Democrats have racked up. I mean actually wresting power from the MAGA movement.

It began just the week after Trump’s inauguration, when an Iowa educator named Mike Zimmer shocked the political world by flipping a deep-red district the GOP had no business losing, and it’s never stopped. Just a week ago, Georgia Democrat Eric Gisler did the same thing. In between, it’s been almost non-stop success for the forces of democracy.

I don’t mean to gloss over the immense damage and sheer terror Trump has inflicted on this country. It’s grave, and it will be difficult—in some cases impossible—to repair. Fixing it will be the work of many years.

But at The Downballot, we’ve remained singularly focused on the one area that’s been our calling card for decades: the thousands of elections below the presidency. Those are the races that have been instrumental in bringing the fight to Trump, in halting our slide toward autocracy, and in giving hope to people everywhere.

Our goal has always been to lift up these elections, which seldom get the attention they deserve, and to educate folks about what’s actually going on. It’s why we devote long hours to sifting through countless sources of information so that we can elevate the most important stories and explain them to our readers.

Those negative emotions I mentioned above? They seem to be surfacing less frequently these days, and it’s not just because Trump is losing but because people are hearing about him losing. I know we’ve played a critical role in that simply because so few publications cover what we do!

At the end of last year, I said that downballot elections would be our most important battlefield during Trump 2.0, and boy has that ever been true. They’re going to be even more important next year, when control of Congress will be in play and the stakes grow much, much higher.

To continue the unique work that we do, The Downballot needs your continued support. We’ve made great strides toward financial sustainability since launching last year thanks to your generosity, but we still have a ways to go before we know we’ll be set for the long term.

To that end, we’d be extremely grateful if you’d consider donating to us on our ActBlue page:

This is an ask we make just once a year, and I want to assure you that we put every dollar to the best possible use. We have just two staff, myself and managing editor Jeff Singer, and we keep our overhead extremely low. If you want the best bang for your buck when making a donation to a worthy cause, you’ll get just that when you give to The Downballot.

I also want to reiterate an argument I’ve made all year long. With the First Amendment under unprecedented attack, and with major news outlets bending the knee to Trump, supporting a robust network of independent media sites—including ours—is mission-critical when it comes to saving American democracy.

The coming year will be another difficult one, but I hope, as I have, that you’ve taken heart from everything we’ve seen at the ballot box this past year. We will keep informing you about every important election, every weekday, at 8 AM ET sharp. Stick with us, because the battle is just beginning.

Thank you for being part of the most supportive and generous community we could ever have dreamed of.

Wishing you a joyous holiday season,

David Nir, Publisher

P.S. This is the final Morning Digest of 2025. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Jan. 5! And as always, if you’d like to support us by upgrading to a paid subscription, you can do so by clicking here.

Presenting the Third Annual Downballot Awards!

Election Night

Special Elections

Two legislative special elections in two very different districts will round out a year marked by consistently strong Democratic performances across the board.

On Tuesday, right before Christmas, voters in South Carolina’s conservative 88th House District will choose between Army veteran Chuck Hightower, the Democratic nominee, and pastor John Lastinger, the Republican candidate.

The district, which is just outside the state capital of Columbia, became vacant after Republican state Rep. RJ May was arrested earlier this year on charges of distributing child sexual abuse material. He pleaded guilty to five counts in September and is scheduled to be sentenced next month.

According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried the district by a 67-32 margin last year. That makes Republicans the heavy favorites to hold the seat, though some have expressed concern that the shadow of May’s scandal could harm Lastinger.

While an upset remains unlikely, South Carolina hosted one previous special election this year, which resulted in a victory—and a 36-point overperformance—for Democrat Keishan Scott. Hightower is also just the second Democrat to contest this seat going back more than 30 years.

A week later, just ahead of New Year’s Eve, Iowa will host a race to fill its solidly blue 16th Senate District in West Des Moines, which became vacant when Democratic state Sen. Claire Celsi died in October.

Democrats have nominated West Des Moines City Council Member Renee Hardman, while Republicans have put forward Luke Loftin, who works at an environmental services company and is also a homeschooling advocate. Kamala Harris won the district 58-41 in 2024.

Keep tabs on every special election across the country by bookmarking The Downballot’s continually updated Big Board.

Senate

MN-Sen

Former state GOP chair David Hann said Thursday that he would enter the race for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, an announcement that came just over a year after he was ousted from his post as party leader.

Hann, 73, has had a long career in state politics, including a turn as minority leader of the state Senate. He had hoped to run the chamber following the 2016 elections, but instead, he narrowly lost reelection even as the GOP won enough seats to reclaim the majority.

In 2021, Hann bounced back by winning the race to lead the state GOP, but he spent his tenure at odds with MAGA activists. He argued after the 2024 elections that he deserved credit for reviving the cash-strapped party’s finances and helping the GOP force a tie in what had been a Democratic-run state House, but his detractors were in no mood to listen.

Hann’s entry into the Senate race comes at a time when Republicans in Minnesota and in Washington are watching to see whether former sportscaster Michele Tafoya will run to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Tina Smith. Tafoya’s deliberations have attracted considerably more interest than Hann’s: One unnamed Republican recently told the Star Tribune, “If she doesn’t [run,] we’re screwed.”

NC-Sen

Conspiracy theorist Michele Morrow, who unseated a GOP incumbent in a primary last year only to lose the general election, has launched a last-minute bid for North Carolina’s open Senate seat just ahead of Friday’s candidate filing deadline.

Republicans long ago rallied around former RNC chair Michael Whatley in their quest to hold the seat held by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, and Morrow—who first floated a bid back in April—now has just two-and-a-half months to derail his bid for the Republican nomination.

But in 2024, she did just that to Catherine Truitt, the state’s superintendent of public instruction, defeating her in a 52-48 upset. Morrow, who was at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, had denounced public schools as “indoctrination centers,” called for Donald Trump to use the military to remain in power, and once made a “joke” about executing Barack Obama—a record that rightly gave Republicans cause to worry they might lose the general election.

That’s precisely what happened, as Morrow showed no interest in appeasing skeptics after her primary win and instead engaged in homophobic rhetoric. Democrat Mo Green went on to narrowly beat her 51-49 despite the fact that Trump carried the state 51-48.

Barring a last-minute filing surprise, Democrats have a clear primary for former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has led Whatley in every public poll of the race. The state will post final candidate lists on the website of the Board of Elections.

Governors

RI-Gov

State House Speaker Joe Shekarchi, who first teased a possible bid for governor in January and has repeatedly danced around the topic, now tells the Boston Globe that he has to “make a decision in the next 90 days.”

Shekarchi added that he would “probably” enter the Democratic primary if Gov. Dan McKee reverses course and opts to retire, though as the paper puts it, the speaker says he’s “thinking about running no matter what McKee does.”

Two candidates are already challenging McKee for the Democratic nod, former CVS executive Helena Foulkes and businessman Greg Stevens.

WY-Gov, WY-AL

Far-right Republican Rep. Harriet Hageman, who first said she was considering a bid for governor back in February, tells NOTUS that she’s already “made a decision” and will make an announcement “soon.”

A major question still looms over the race, though: Will Wyoming’s current governor, Republican Mark Gordon, challenge a state law that imposes a limit of two consecutive terms?

That law, approved by voters via a 1992 ballot initiative, has since been partially struck down twice for violating the state constitution, first in regard to state legislators and later with respect to downballot statewide offices. It has yet to be challenged for the office of governor, though it would very likely fail such a challenge.

The possibility of a lawsuit was floated during the second terms of both of Gordon’s immediate predecessors, Democrat Dave Freudenthal and Republican Matt Mead, but neither took action. Earlier this year, Gordon responded to a question from Cowboy State Daily about his political future by saying “never say never,” but he has yet to file a suit.

House

AZ-05

The hardline Club for Growth has endorsed former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs, a fellow Republican who is giving up the conservative 5th District to run for governor of Arizona.

While Lamb decisively lost last year’s primary for the U.S. Senate, he appears to be in strong shape going into the Aug. 4 nomination contest. Donald Trump endorsed the ex-sheriff last month, and Lamb has publicized a series of polls showing him crushing his intraparty rivals. No one has released any contrary numbers.

CA-13

Donald Trump has endorsed former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln’s campaign against Democratic Rep. Adam Gray in California’s revamped 13th District.

Lincoln, who lost a close race last year to Democratic Rep. Josh Harder in the neighboring 9th, was already the favorite to advance out of the June 2 top-two primary along with Gray. The new version of the 13th in California’s Central Valley would have backed Kamala Harris by a tight 49-48 spread, a shift to the left from Donald Trump’s 51-46 win there under the previous lines.

CT-01

Former Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry said Tuesday that he was ending his campaign against longtime Rep. John Larson, a fellow Democrat. But Larson, 77, still faces three considerably younger opponents in the Aug. 11 primary in Connecticut’s reliably blue 1st District.

Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin raised far more money than Larson, Perry, or the other two remaining candidates—Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune and state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest—during the third quarter of the year, and he finished September with slightly more cash on hand than the incumbent. Updated numbers for the final quarter of 2025 are due on Jan. 31.

FL-23

Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer announced Thursday that he’d seek the Republican nomination to oppose Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz in Florida’s 23rd District, a longtime Democratic bastion in South Florida that shifted hard to the right last year and that Republicans are threatening to gerrymander.

The current version of the constituency that Singer (no relation to The Downballot’s Jeff Singer) is seeking backed Kamala Harris by a slim 51-49 margin four years after Joe Biden took it by a far wider 56-43 spread. Singer, who will leave office in March due to term limits, joins former state Rep. George Moraitis and Joe Kaufman, a perennial candidate whom Moskowitz turned aside by a narrow 52-48 margin last year, in the Aug. 18 GOP primary.

Moskowitz, for his part, predicted in September that he was “absolutely going to get targeted” by GOP mapmakers. He told former Meet the Press host Chuck Todd that if “Republicans decide to do all the gerrymandering and decide to set me free from my district,” he might respond by challenging Republican Sen. Ashley Moody.

The GOP-dominated state government, however, has yet to reach any sort of consensus on how—or even when—they’ll pursue redistricting.

While Gov. Ron DeSantis said earlier this month that he’d call a special session sometime “next Spring” to pass a new congressional gerrymander, state House Speaker Daniel Perez has been adamant that his chamber will instead take up the matter in the regular session that begins on Jan. 13.

“I think it’s inconsiderate of our members to say that in May, when hopefully we’re home, you’re going to have to come back to Tallahassee and take a week off or whatever you have going on with your family because certain parties didn’t want to address an issue that was before us right now in the immediate moment,” Perez told Politico last week. “I think that’s irresponsible. And so the House isn’t going to take that.”

GA-14

Former Paulding County Commissioner Brian Stover and Dalton City Councilmember Nicky Lama have both announced that they’ll compete in the upcoming special election to replace Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a fellow Republican whose resignation from the 14th Congressional District is set to take effect on Jan. 5.

Stover, who lost a 2024 primary for chair of the county commission, runs a waste management company and tells Fox News he’ll self-fund his campaign. Lama is a real estate developer.

The newcomers join far-right state Sen. Colton Moore and Jim Tully, who has served as both an aide to Greene and as chair of the 14th District Republican Party, as well as some lesser-known Republican and Democratic candidates. All contenders will face off on one ballot next year rather than in separate party primaries, though the special election cannot be scheduled until Greene’s resignation takes effect.

In the likely event that no one wins a majority, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to a runoff that would take place 28 days after the first round. Trump carried this constituency, which is based in the northwestern part of the state, 68-31 last year, so there’s a good chance two Republicans will move forward.

IN-01

The Indiana State Ethics Commission voted Thursday to approve a settlement with former state cabinet member Jennifer-Ruth Green that resulted in her agreeing to pay a $10,000 fine. State prosecutors, however, still have an open criminal investigation into Green, who is seeking the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan.

Green, who lost a competitive race to Mrvan in 2022, resigned as public safety secretary in September as she was preparing her campaign for a rematch. The Indiana Capitol Chronicle soon reported that Green was the subject of an internal investigation for, among other things, allegedly using state resources and staff for personal and political tasks and engaging in the “uninvited touching of employees.”

Green told the site at the time she was the victim of “baseless allegations.” Her campaign responded to her agreement this week by proclaiming it a “major legal victory” against an inspector general’s office that “completely caved for a settlement to save face with the ethics commission.”

The inspector general’s office, however, said Thursday that state prosecutors were still probing Green for what the Capitol Chronicle says are allegations concerning “ghost employment, retaliation and official misconduct.”

Green is competing against Porter County Commissioner Barb Regnitz in the May 5 Republican primary for the 1st Congressional District, a constituency in the northwestern corner of the state that Donald Trump and his allies badly wanted GOP legislators to redraw. But while their months-long bullying failed to move the state Senate, Mrvan could still face a tough race next year.

Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: Indiana Republicans kill Trump's gerrymandering push

Kamala Harris won the 1st District just 49.4 to 49.0, according to calculations by The Downballot—a sizable drop from Joe Biden’s 53-45 showing in 2020. Mrvan, however, won reelection last year by a considerably stronger 53-45 margin in a seat that last elected a Republican in 1928.

IN-05

NOTUS contacted more than 120 House Republicans to ask if they’ll seek reelection, and as usual, Rep. Victoria Spartz is hedging about whatever she’ll do next.

“We’ll announce in January, or whatever, when we file,” she said. “A few weeks to decide.” Indiana’s candidate filing deadline is on Feb. 6.

The congresswoman’s team told the Indianapolis Star in July that she “is fully geared up for when she formally announces her filing for re-election,” a statement that would be definitive if it were about anyone other than Victoria Spartz.

It was just last cycle, though, that the notoriously erratic Hoosier talked about running for the Senate, announced her retirement from Congress, threatened to resign her seat, and then ultimately ran for reelection.

Most of her colleagues would probably be just fine if Spartz, who has spent her third term making grand pledges to oppose GOP priorities only to repeatedly back down, actually handed over the safely red 5th District to someone more dependable. However, while there was chatter earlier this year that former state Rep. Chuck Goodrich, who lost last year’s primary to Spartz 39-33, could oppose her again, neither he nor any other serious contenders have made a move yet.

NOTUS’ roundup is worth checking out in full because the outlet’s reporters have collected comments from many other Republicans, including more than a few others who are undecided about their reelection plans.

ME-02

Donald Trump has endorsed Paul LePage, the former Maine governor who once called himself “Trump before Trump,” in the June 9 Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District.

LePage, who at 77 would be one of the oldest House freshmen in history, scared off any serious intraparty opposition even before Democratic Rep. Jared Golden unexpectedly announced his retirement last month. Trump prevailed 54-44 last year in the 2nd District, but Democrats are still hoping that LePage is beatable.

NC-03

Former state Rep. Raymond Smith and former nonprofit head Allison Jaslow both announced this week that they would seek the Democratic nomination to oppose Rep. Greg Murphy in North Carolina’s 3rd District, a longtime Republican bastion that GOP mapmakers made less conservative to push the neighboring 1st District to the right.

Smith, an Army veteran whom Punchbowl News says saw combat during the Gulf War, went on to win two terms in the state House in 2018 and 2020.

Smith then unsuccessfully challenged state Sen. Milton Fitch in the Democratic primary in 2022, though Fitch went on to lose reelection to Republican Buck Newton. Smith himself ran against Newton last year, but the incumbent held him off 55-45.

Jaslow, according to her LinkedIn profile, served with the Army in Iraq from 2006 to 2008. She went on to work in Democratic politics in both campaigns and government, including as executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2019.

Jaslow later became CEO of The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, a position she left earlier this year. The nonprofit praised her for having “made history in 2023 as the first woman and first openly gay veteran to lead a major veterans service organization.”

The 3rd District, which has long included many of the state’s coastal communities, has been in GOP hands since Walter Jones flipped it during the 1994 wave that put Republicans in control of the House. Murphy, who was elected in 2019 following Jones’ death, has never had trouble winning reelection, and he didn’t even face a Democratic opponent last year as Donald Trump carried his constituency 60-39.

GOP legislators, though, made Murphy’s life more complicated in October when they passed a new map that shrunk Trump’s margin of victory to 56-43 to make Democratic Rep. Don Davis’ swingy 1st District much tougher for Davis to defend. The 3rd, while still quite conservative, is now largely based inland, and Murphy didn’t hide how unhappy he was with the alterations.

“I was really disappointed,” Murphy told the local radio program Talk of the Town. “The way the Senate drew the map in Raleigh basically took the 3rd District and split it in half. This has always been a coastal district.”

Murphy publicly mulled running for the 1st instead, but Trump’s team had other ideas. An unnamed White House official told Punchbowl, “We expect him to run in his current district, which is the district we will back him to run in.” Murphy assented in late October, and Trump quickly blessed him with an endorsement.

Smith and Jaslow, though, are hoping that the GOP’s greed will give them an opening. The primary will take place on March 3.

TX-23, TX-34, TX-10

Donald Trump issued a batch of endorsements to Texas Republicans on Thursday evening, including one to Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales, who faces another challenge from “gunfluencer” Brandon Herrera in the conservative 23rd District after barely hanging on in a runoff last year.

Trump also gave his support to Army veteran Eric Flores, who is seeking to take on Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th District, which Republicans pushed several points to the right in their latest gerrymander. The move also represents a rejection of former GOP Rep. Mayra Flores, who is waging a second comeback bid after losing an incumbent vs. incumbent matchup against Gonzalez in 2022 and then a rematch last year.

Finally, Trump bestowed his blessing on attorney Chris Gober, one of several Republicans vying to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Michael McCaul in the deep-red 10th District.

As the Texas Tribune’s Gabby Birenbaum points out, just two Texas Republicans in Congress now lack Trump’s backing: 2nd District Rep. Dan Crenshaw and Sen. John Cornyn, both of whom face primary challenges.

WA-04

State Sen. Matt Boehnke said Wednesday that he’s considering running to succeed retiring Rep. Dan Newhouse, a fellow Republican, in Washington’s conservative 4th District.

Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney also said in a statement that she’s interested in entering the Aug. 4 top-two primary and “look[s] forward to sharing news with you all in the coming days.” Punchbowl News, however, previously reported that McKinney has already decided to run and has a well-funded super PAC backing her.

The Washington State Standard adds that there had been speculation that motivational speaker Tiffany Smiley, who unsuccessfully challenged Newhouse last year, was interested in a rematch. But Smiley, who also tried to unseat Democratic Sen. Patty Murray in 2022, doesn’t appear to have said anything publicly about a possible future run for office either before or since Newhouse decided to call it a career.

Mayors & County Leaders

Washington, D.C. Mayor

DC Councilmember Janeese Lewis George has received endorsements from five labor groups that the Washington Post writes have “a strong local organizing presence and network.”

Lewis George is currently the only serious candidate running to succeed Mayor Muriel Bowser, a fellow Democrat who is not seeking a fourth term leading the nation’s capital city. However, she’s likely to soon be joined in the June 16 Democratic primary by Kenyan McDuffie, who has said he’ll step down from the Council on Jan. 5.

Morning Digest: A major election year is unfolding in D.C. as the city is besieged by Trump

Obituaries

Jim Hunt

Former North Carolina Gov. Jim Hunt, a Democrat whose nonconsecutive stints from 1977 to 1985 and from 1993 to 2001 made him the longest-serving chief executive in state history, died Thursday at the age of 88.

Hunt, who also lost a close Senate race to Republican incumbent Jesse Helms in 1984, remained an influential presence in state politics long after he left office for the final time. Hunt’s endorsement was a valuable commodity, and his daughter, Rachel Hunt, was elected lieutenant governor last year.

NC Newsline has more about the long career of Hunt, who was nicknamed the “education governor,” in its obituary.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Gov: NextGen Polling (R): Katie Hobbs (D-inc): 51, Andy Biggs (R): 32; Hobbs (D-inc): 51, Karrin Taylor Robson (R): 30. The release did not include numbers testing David Schweikert, who is also running as a Republican.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): FM3 (D) for California Issues Forum: Steve Hilton (R): 18, Chad Bianco (R): 17, Eric Swalwell (D): 17, Katie Porter (D): 13, Tom Steyer (D): 6, Xavier Becerra (D): 3, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 3, undecided: 20, other candidates 1% or less. The poll did not include Republican Jon Slavet, who entered the race while the survey was in the field.

• OH-Gov: Data Targeting (R) for T. Roosevelt Action: Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 45, Amy Acton (D): 43. The release largely focuses on support for a proposed constitutional amendment that would “establish a constitutional right to hunt and fish.”

• MD-06 (D): Hart Research (D) for April McClain Delaney: April McClain Delaney (inc): 50, David Trone: 33.