Morning Digest: Why we should talk about 'fair elections' differently

Even when the playing field is tilted, the forces of democracy can still win

(credit: Ernie Journeys on Unsplash)

Leading Off

One common—and very understandable—reaction to Donald Trump's victory on Tuesday night has been to say, "Yes, it may be possible to defeat his movement at the ballot box—if we still have fair elections."

But the concept of "fair elections" is not a binary one. Like so many things in politics, fairness runs along a spectrum, but even deeply flawed elections still have the power to bring about change.

And we know this because, even before Trump came along, American elections were already imperfect. There were and are many ways they fall far short of our ideals.

Gerrymandered maps undermine the ability of voters to make their will felt. Restrictions on who may vote, where, and when disenfranchise thousands. Elections relegated to odd days and odd years deliberately limit the electorate. Officials throw up roadblocks to ballot measures they oppose. And pliant judges sign off on much of this.

Nevertheless, despite these many obstacles, Americans have rejected those in power time and again. We did it in 2018, and we did it in 2020. And we can do it again.

It will be harder. Trump and his adherents will continue their assault on democracy. They will work hard to make our elections less fair still. They will weaponize the federal government. They will shred what's left of the Voting Rights Act. They will do things we have not yet imagined.

But I do not believe that, in two years' time or in four, they can rig our elections such that the outcomes, like in Putin's Russia, become pre-ordained. And I say that not out of any naive hope but because the way we conduct our elections is too decentralized for even the most fervent authoritarian to subvert in its entirety.

That decentralization—the fact that our elections are carried out by 50 states and thousands of counties—is often a great weakness, because it presents so many potential points of failure. But right now, it's a great strength.

I will be the first to acknowledge that this is glass-quarter-full at best. But it's not nothing. I have always told myself and anyone willing to listen that I will keep fighting as long as there is a battle worth fighting. There still is.

The Downballot Podcast

How Democrats can still win the House

It may seem hard to believe after Tuesday night, but Democrats still have a shot at winning a majority in the House. With many races uncalled and many votes still to be counted, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard analyze the Democrats’ path to 218 seats on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. Hang on tight, though, since it could be a while before final results are known.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript.

Election Results

Senate

Republicans took control of the Senate by flipping at least three seats, which assures them control of at least 52 of the chamber's 100 seats in the 119th Congress.

• Montana: Republican Tim Sheehy beat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester 53-45.

• Ohio: Republican Bernie Moreno unseated Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown 50-46.

• West Virginia: Republican Jim Justice easily defeated Democrat Glenn Elliott 69-28 in the contest to succeed the retiring incumbent, Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin.

Several other battlegrounds remain uncalled. All estimates of the percentage of votes already tabulated come from the Associated Press.

• Arizona: Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 50-48 with 69% in.

• Maine: With 92% counted, independent Sen. Angus King leads Republican Demi Kouzounas 52-34 as Democrat David Costello takes 11%. If King, who caucuses with the Democrats, fails to win a majority, the state would use ranked-choice tabulations to determine the winner.

• Nevada: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen holds a 48-47 edge over Republican Sam Brown with 90% in. Rosen was behind on election night and through Wednesday, but she pulled ahead in the early hours of Thursday after more ballots were tabulated.

• Pennsylvania: Republican Dave McCormick leads Democratic Sen. Bob Casey 48.9-48.5 with 98% reporting.

Democrats, though, learned Wednesday that they'd held two Senate seats in Rust Belt states that Donald Trump carried. Democrat Elissa Slotkin edged out Republican Mike Rogers 48.6-48.3 in Michigan, while Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin fended off Republican Eric Hovde 49.4-48.5 in Wisconsin.

Governors

None of the 11 state governorships on Tuesday's ballot ended up flipping in either direction. The only contest that appeared to be competitive going into Election Day, the race to succeed retiring GOP Gov. Chris Sununu in New Hampshire, ended in a decisive 53-44 victory for Republican Kelly Ayotte over Democrat Joyce Craig.

House

The battle for the House remains unresolved, with many races uncalled due in large part to mail ballots in western states that have yet to be counted. Democrats, however, would have to come from behind in several races to win a majority of 218 seats.

Flips

• AL-02: Democrat Shomari Figures defeated Republican Caroleene Dobson 55-45 for Alabama's 2nd District, a constituency that was redrawn this cycle by a federal court. Figures will be the first African American to represent Mobile in Congress since the 1870s.

• MI-07: Republican Tom Barrett beat Democrat Curtis Hertel 50-47 for Michigan's 7th District in the Lansing area.

• NC-06, NC-13, NC-14: Republicans Addison McDowell, Brad Knott, and Tim Moore had no trouble flipping a trio of House seats that North Carolina Republicans gerrymandered to be unwinnable for Democrats.

• NY-19: Democrat Josh Riley unseated Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro 50.5-49.5 in their rematch for New York's 19th District, a Hudson Valley seat where Molinaro prevailed two years before.

• NY-22: Democrat John Mannion ousted Republican Rep. Brandon Williams 54-46 in New York's 22nd District in the Syracuse area.

• PA-07: Republican Ryan Mackenzie defeated Democratic Rep. Susan Wild 51-49 in Pennsylvania's 7th District in the Lehigh Valley.

• PA-08: Republican Robert Bresnahan unseated Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright 51-49 in Pennsylvania's 8th District around Scranton.

Uncalled Races

• AK-AL: Republican Nick Begich leads Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola 49.5-45.4 with 76% in for Alaska's at-large House seat, with the balance going to a pair of minor candidates. This race was conducted using ranked-choice voting, so instant-runoff tabulations will be needed if no one secures a majority of the vote.

• AZ-01: Republican Rep. David Schweikert is currently outpacing Democrat Amish Shah 51-49 with 69% tabulated in Arizona's 1st District in the Phoenix area.

• AZ-06: Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is edging out Democrat Kirsten Engel 49.1-48.6 with 67% reporting in the 6th District, which is based in southern Arizona.

• CA-09: Democratic Rep. Josh Harder leads Republican Kevin Lincoln 51-49 with 56% counted in California’s 9th District around Stockton.

• CA-12: BART board member Lateefah Simon holds a 63-37 lead over her fellow Democrat, California State University East Bay professor Jennifer Tran, with only 28% counted in the 12th District in the Easy Bay.

• CA-13: Republican Rep. John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray 51-49 with 52% counted in the 13th District in the Central Valley.

• CA-21: Democratic Rep. Jim Costa holds a 50.4-49.6 advantage over Republican Michael Maher with 57% tabulated in the 21st District. While Costa won a shockingly tight race in 2014 in a previous incarnation of this Fresno-area seat, his race had not looked competitive this year.

• CA-22: Republican Rep. David Valadao has a 55-45 lead over Democrat Rudy Salas with 56% counted in the 22nd, another seat located in the Central Valley.

• CA-27: Republican Rep. Mike Garcia leads Democrat George Whitesides 51-49 with 69% reporting in the 27th District in Northern Los Angeles County.

• CA-41: Republican Rep. Ken Calvert is outpacing Democrat Will Rollins 51-49 with 76% reporting in the 41st District in the Palm Springs area.

• CA-45: Republican Rep. Michelle Steel leads Democrat Derek Tran 52-48 with 70% counted in the 45th District in western Orange County.

• CA-47: Republican Scott Baugh is ahead of Democrat Dave Min 50.2-49.8 with 73% in for the open 47th District along the Orange County coast.

• CA-49: Democratic Rep. Mike Levin leads Republican Matt Gunderson 51-49 with 71% tabulated in the 49th District north of San Diego.

• CO-08: Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo leads Republican Gabe Evans 49-48 with 81% tabulated in the 8th District in the Denver suburbs.

• IA-01: Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks holds a tiny 50.1-49.9 advantage over Democrat Christina Bohannan with 99% tallied in the 1st District in southeastern Iowa.

• MD-06: Democrat April McClain Delaney holds a 50.05-49.95 edge over Republican Neil Parrott with 84% tabulated in Maryland's 6th District, which includes the northern part of the state and several suburbs of Washington, D.C.

• ME-02: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden leads Republican Austin Theriault 50.2-49.5 with 93% reporting in northern Maine's 2nd District. While there are no other candidates officially on the ballot, ranked-choice tabulations would be employed if write-in votes prevent either Golden or Theriault from securing a majority.

• NE-02: Republican Rep. Don Bacon leads Democrat Tony Vargas 51-49 with 95% reporting in Nebraska's 2nd District around Omaha.

• NV-03: Democratic Rep. Susie Lee leads Republican Drew Johnson 51-49 with 92% reporting in Nevada's 3rd District, a seat in the southern Las Vegas suburbs that national Republicans had largely given up on.

• NY-04: Democrat Laura Gillen leads Republican Rep. Anthony D'Esposito 51-49 with 98% reporting in New York's 4th District in southern Nassau County.

• OH-09: Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur holds a 48.1-47.8 lead over Republican Derek Merrin with 99% reporting in Ohio's 9th District in the Toledo area.

• OR-05: Democrat Janelle Bynum is outpacing Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer 48-45 with 75% reporting in Oregon's 5th District in the southern Portland suburbs and central Oregon.

• PA-10: GOP Rep. Scott Perry holds a 51-49 edge over Democrat Janelle Stelson with 99% reporting in Pennsylvania’s 10th District based around Harrisburg.

• WA-03: Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads Republican Joe Kent 52-48 with 82% reporting in southern Washington's 3rd District.

• WA-04: Rep. Dan Newhouse holds a 51-49 lead over his fellow Republican, businessman Jerrod Sessler, with 67% tabulated in the 4th District in central Washington.

Late Calls

The outcomes of these races were not known when The Downballot signed off on Tuesday night but have since been called by a reputable outlet.

• AZ-08: Republican Abraham Hamadeh beat Democrat Gregory Whitten 56-44 with 69% tabulated in the 8th District west of Phoenix.

• CA-16: Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo defeated his fellow Democrat, Assemblyman Evan Low, 60-40 with 54% tabulated for California’s 16th District in Silicon Valley.

• CA-31: Democrat Gil Cisneros beat Republican Daniel Martinez 57-43 with 60% counted for the 31st District in the eastern San Gabriel Valley.

• CA-34: Rep. Jimmy Gomez won his all-Democratic general election by outpacing former prosecutor David Kim 56-44 with 54% tabulated in the 34th District in downtown Los Angeles.

• CO-03: Republican Jeff Hurd edged out Democrat Adam Frisch 50-47 with 88% counted in western Colorado's open 3rd District.

• MI-08: Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet has held Michigan's open 8th District in the Flint area, beating Republican Paul Junge 51-45.

• MI-10: Republican Rep. John James turned back Democrat Carl Marlinga 51-45 in Michigan's 10th District in the Detroit suburbs, a rematch of their race from two years ago.

• MT-01: In yet another rematch of a 2022 race, Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke defeated Democrat Monica Tranel 53-44 in western Montana's 2nd District.

• NC-01: Democratic Rep. Don Davis edged out Republican Laurie Buckhout 49-48 in North Carolina's 1st District in the inland northeastern part of the state.

• NJ-09: Democrat Nellie Pou, who was tapped by local party leaders to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell on the ballot in August, survived with a surprisingly close 51-46 win over Republican Billy Prempeh in a race the AP did not call until Wednesday afternoon. Pascrell beat Prempeh 55-43 two years ago in what proved to be his final campaign for North Jersey's 9th District.

• NM-02: Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez has hung on in southern New Mexico's 2nd District, fending off Republican Yvette Herrell 52-48 in a rematch of their race two years ago.

• NY-17: Republican Rep. Mike Lawler won a 52-46 victory over Democrat Mondaire Jones, who was seeking a comeback for his old 17th District in the lower Hudson Valley after an unsuccessful bid for a Brooklyn-based seat two years ago. Anthony Frascone, who managed to win the Working Families Party line over Jones (and whom Democrats accused of being a GOP plant) took just 2%.

• OH-13: Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes defeated Republican Kevin Coughlin 51-49 to win a second term representing Ohio's 13th District in the Akron and Canton areas.

• TX-34: Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzales narrowly won a rematch over Republican Mayra Flores, prevailing 51-49 in Texas' 34th District in the eastern Rio Grande Valley.

• VA-07: Democrat Eugene Vindman defeated Republican Derrick Anderson 51-49 to hold Northern Virginia's open 7th District.

• WA-08: Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier beat Republican Carmen Goers 54-46 with 80% tabulated in Washington’s 8th District in the Seattle suburbs.

• WI-03: Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden held off Democrat Rebecca Cooke 51-49 to win southwestern Wisconsin's 3rd District.

Attorneys General

Republican Dave Sunday flipped the Pennsylvania attorney general's office after 12 years of Democratic control, while Democrat Jeff Jackson preserved his party's 124-year winning streak for that office in North Carolina.

Sunday, who serves as York County district attorney, beat former state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale 51-49. Sunday will succeed Democrat Michelle Henry, whom Democrat Josh Shapiro picked to replace him as attorney general after he was elected governor in 2022.

Two other members of the GOP's statewide ticket, Auditor General Timothy DeFoor and Treasurer Stacy Garrity, respectively won reelection 51-46 and 52-46.

Jackson, however, outpaced his fellow congressman, far-right Rep. Dan Bishop, 51-49 even as Donald Trump was carrying North Carolina. Jackson will replace Democrat Josh Stein, whose 55-40 victory over Republican Mark Robinson made him the third attorney general in a row to be elected governor.

Tar Heel Republicans haven't won a race for attorney general since 1896, though the party briefly held the post in 1974 when GOP Gov. James Holshouser appointed James Carson to fill a vacancy. Carson, though, lost the ensuing special election a few months later to Democrat Rufus Edmisten, and Democrats have held the office ever since.

Republicans, however, took five of the eight remaining offices in the state's executive branch, which is known as the Council of State. One high-profile Democratic win, though, was Mo Green's 51-49 showing over his Republican opponent, conspiracy theorist Michele Morrow, for state superintendent of public instruction. Morrow, who defeated incumbent Catherine Truitt in the March primary, previously denounced public schools as "indoctrination centers" and made a "joke" about executing Barack Obama.

Ballot Measures

Abortion

Ballot measures to restore and protect abortion rights largely prevailed on Tuesday night, though a trio in red states failed to pass.

The most significant victory for reproductive rights came in Missouri, where voters approved an amendment that reverses the state's near-total abortion ban by a 52-48 margin and ensures access to the procedure through fetal viability. Voters in Arizona, which had a 15-week ban, passed a similar amendment 62-38.

In Montana, where abortion is broadly protected thanks to state Supreme Court precedent, voters enshrined that right in the state constitution in a 57-43 vote. Nevadans likewise greenlit an abortion rights amendment 63-37, further safeguarding access that was previously guaranteed through an unusual "statute affirmation" referendum in 1990.

And in Colorado, voters approved an amendment 61-39 that not only protects the right to an abortion but also overturns a ban on state funding for the procedure. That will allow the state's Medicaid program, as well as an insurance plan for state employees, to cover abortions.

In all of these states, these amendments were placed on the ballot by advocates through the initiative process. In three others, however, such initiatives did not fare as well. A wide 57-43 majority of voters in Florida, where abortion is banned after six weeks, backed a measure to restore access to the procedure, but it failed because the state requires amendments to win a 60% supermajority.

In South Dakota, meanwhile, a narrower amendment that would have restored abortion through the first trimester lost 59-41. And in Nebraska, voters narrowly rejected an abortion rights amendment 51-49 while approving a different amendment to ban it after the first trimester 55-45. That latter measure still leaves open the door for the state's Republican-dominated legislature to pass restrictions beyond the 12-week ban they enacted last year.

In two blue states, abortion-related amendments that were placed on the ballot by state lawmakers also succeeded. Marylanders passed their state's proposal 74-26, while New Yorkers approved a measure dubbed the Equal Rights Amendment 62-38. The New York measure doesn't explicitly address abortion but rather bars discrimination on a whole host of bases, including "pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy."

Jeff Singer contributed many of these entries.