Morning Digest: Al Green will run again, setting up clash with much younger opponent
The winner of a special election next year will immediately face off against the longtime congressman
Leading Off
TX-18
Veteran Rep. Al Green announced Friday that he would seek reelection in Texas’ redrawn 18th District, a decision that will almost certainly set off a contest against another incumbent in the March Democratic primary.
But Green, who is 78, won’t learn the identity of his colleague-turned-rival until the special election currently underway in the old version of the 18th concludes early next year.
Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who are respectively 37 and 43, last week advanced out of the first round of the special election to succeed Rep. Sylvester Turner, a fellow Democrat who died in March.
Prior to this summer, Menefee and Edwards had had no reason to prepare for a confrontation with Green, who has represented the neighboring 9th District since 2005. Green, for his part, attracted national prominence in March when he was escorted out of Donald Trump’s speech to Congress—and soon censured—for shouting that Trump had “no mandate to cut Medicaid.”
While that episode did nothing to endanger Green in his safely Democratic constituency, his reelection prospects got dicier after Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott successfully pushed for a new gerrymander that turned the 9th into a heavily Republican district that has little in common with Green’s longtime turf beyond sharing a number.
Green soon began signaling that he might run for the new 18th District, which remains a reliably blue constituency in the Houston area and now includes about two-thirds of the congressman’s current constituents as well as his home. Just over a quarter of the revamped 18th, by contrast, overlaps with the district that Menefee and Edwards are running for.
Last week, Menefee outpaced Edwards 29-26 in a special election that featured 14 other candidates from various parties on the ballot (Texas does not hold separate party primaries in special elections)—a huge roster that made it all but impossible for anyone to earn the majority needed to win outright. While Abbott has not yet announced when the runoff will be, it will likely take place sometime in January or February.
The state’s Dec. 8 deadline to run for a full term in Congress, however, will pass well before then. Menefee, though, says he will file to run in the March 3 primary even though he doesn’t yet know if he’ll go into that race as an incumbent.
Edwards has not yet announced if she’ll do the same, but it would be a surprise if she didn’t try to join the next Congress. The former city councilwoman campaigned to succeed veteran Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee last cycle when the congresswoman ran for mayor of Houston, and she remained in the race after Jackson Lee responded to her defeat by seeking reelection. Jackson Lee won 60-37 before dying a few months later, and party leaders picked Turner over Edwards as their new nominee in a close vote.
In the race for a full term, if no one earns a majority of the vote in the primary on March 3, a runoff would take place on May 26. The winner will be the heavy favorite in the November general election.
Green, unlike his two younger rivals, hasn’t experienced a tough campaign since 2004, when, following the infamous Delaymander, he successfully challenged freshman Rep. Chris Bell for renomination. Green has also rarely raised much money, though he did receive an influx of cash after interrupting Trump and ended September with $573,000 in the bank.
Green and his allies on Friday urged voters to send him back to Congress because of his seniority and because of his history of opposing Trump, whose impeachment he’s repeatedly called for.
“When I go back to Congress, I promise you, I will file additional articles of impeachment to remove Donald Trump,” the congressman told the audience at his Friday kickoff.
The congressman also argued that his age was anything but a liability.
“There is some question about age, and I want you to know that I will not make an issue about anybody’s youthfulness,” he said in a paraphrase of Ronald Reagan’s famous 1984 presidential debate quip against Democratic challenger Walter Mondale. “I think that people who are of age can run, so I want them to run.”
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Election Recaps
NH State House
A recount in a competitive New Hampshire special election narrowed the margin between the candidates but confirmed Republican Marc Tremblay as the winner over Democrat Corrinne Cascadden by just five votes. However, Democrats responded by saying they’d appeal to the state’s Ballot Law Commission, which adjudicates questions about disputed ballots.
Last week, initial results put Tremblay up 878 to 865 in the race for Coös County’s vacant 5th House District, a swingy seat narrowly won by Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump last year. Following a recount, Cascadden added nine votes while Tremblay gained none, leaving the Republican with an 878-873 edge.
Seattle, WA Mayor
Progressive activist Katie Wilson took a 91-vote lead over Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell, a fellow Democrat, after more ballots were tabulated on Monday.
Wilson, who trailed 54-46 on election night, now holds a 49.83 to 49.79 edge, with write-in votes accounting for the balance. Election officials say that there are about 6,400 ballots left to be tabulated.
The secretary of state will certify the results on Nov. 25, but the winner will almost certainly not be finalized by then.
Catharine Smith of KUOW says that an automatic recount would take place if the margin between the candidates is fewer than 2,000 votes and the spread between the candidates is within 0.5%. Smith writes that Wilson would need to win about 65% of the untabulated ballots to hold a lead outside this window, which is unlikely.
Senate
MI-Sen
Former Michigan GOP co-chair Bernadette Smith, who stepped down from her post just days ago, is reportedly “poised to run” for the state’s open Senate seat—setting up a clash with a favored recruit of national Republicans.
Smith’s potential bid was reported by the Michigan Advance, which described widespread “rumors” and “speculation” that she could join former Rep. Mike Rogers in next year’s GOP primary.
Rogers, who narrowly lost the general election last year for Michigan’s other Senate seat, has so far avoided any notable opposition, thanks in part to efforts by Donald Trump and GOP power-brokers to clear the field for him.
Democrats, by contrast, have a three-way primary between Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. El-Sayed just earned a pair of high-profile endorsements from Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Horace Sheffield, a prominent pastor who is the father of Detroit Mayor-elect Mary Sheffield.
TX-Sen
Sen. John Cornyn’s allies are attacking Rep. Wesley Hunt on TV for the first time as Hunt’s side showcases two new polls that show him in a tight third place in the March Republican primary.
Texans for a Conservative Majority, which has already spent over $7 million—until now, promoting Cornyn and attacking Attorney General Ken Paxton—uses its first anti-Hunt commercial to accuse the congressman of frequently missing votes.
“When President Trump and Texas needed him, Wesley was looking out for himself,” says the narrator. “Now, Mr. No Show wants a promotion, but can’t even do the job he has now.”
The group is also airing a second new spot that once again highlights some of Paxton’s many scandals. The ad accuses Paxton’s ethical transgressions of costing the state millions, even as he became personally wealthy. FEC filings show Texans for a Conservative Majority spending at least $1.1 million on this latest ad campaign.
Everyone agrees that Paxton and Cornyn are ahead in the race to secure spots in the likely May primary runoff, though Hunt and his supporters argue that may not remain the case for much longer.
Stratus Intelligence, polling on behalf of an unnamed pro-Hunt group, shows Paxton ahead with 34% as Cornyn edges out Hunt just 27-26. An earlier Stratus survey from September that was conducted a few weeks before Hunt announced had Paxton at 38%, with Cornyn beating the congressman 28-23.
Meanwhile, a Hunt internal from Harper Polling finds things even closer. Cornyn takes first with just 26% as Paxton holds a tiny 25-24 advantage over Hunt. Previous polls showed Hunt further behind, though they were all fielded before he launched his campaign last month.
Governors
AL-Gov
Former Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, who teased a political comeback earlier this year, told attendees at a town hall over the weekend to “[s]tay tuned” when asked if he would run for Alabama’s open governorship.
Such a bid would likely set up a rematch with the man who ousted him from the Senate five years ago, Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is currently on a glide path to the GOP nomination. Jones did not offer a timeline for making a decision, though Alabama’s filing deadline is at the end of January.
House
CA-11
Democratic strategist Christine Pelosi said Monday that she would run for the state Senate rather than campaign to replace her mother, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, in Congress.
The seat that the younger Pelosi is seeking is held by state Sen. Scott Wiener, who is campaigning to represent San Francisco in the U.S. House. Wiener’s seat is not scheduled to be on the ballot until 2028, though a special election would take place earlier if he earns a promotion.
Former San Francisco Mayor London Breed, meanwhile, told multiple media outlets on Friday that she’s also interested in campaigning to succeed Nancy Pelosi in California’s safely blue 11th District. Breed badly lost reelection last year to Daniel Lurie, a fellow Democrat.
CA-13
Former Rep. John Duarte on Monday endorsed former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln’s bid against freshman Rep. Adam Gray, the Democrat who narrowly unseated Duarte last year.
Duarte previously announced in March that he would support a different candidate, Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez, against Gray. Lopez is still running even after voters approved a new map that makes this still-competitive constituency more Democratic, but he’s struggled to raise money so far.
CA-40
Former Chino Valley school board member Christina Gagnier said Friday that she would end her campaign for California’s 40th District now that the state’s new congressional map has made it considerably more conservative.
But another Democrat, retired firefighter Joe Kerr, said last week that he would continue to run against GOP Rep. Young Kim, who decisively beat him last year. Kim was the favorite to win again under the old map, but her reelection prospects got a lot more complicated after fellow Republican incumbent Ken Calvert also decided to run for the revamped 40th.
Two other Democrats who launched campaigns against Kim before the remap, art gallery owner Esther Kim Varet and immigration attorney Lisa Ramirez, previously said they’d keep running. A fifth notable Democrat, labor organizer Perry Meade, does not appear to have revealed his plans.
The new incarnation of the 40th would have backed Donald Trump 55-42, so it will be difficult for any Democrat to flip this seat. A large field of challengers, though, could make it easier for both Calvert and Kim to advance out of the June top-two primary and into an all-Republican general election.
MN-05
Latonya Reeves, a labor leader and member of the Democratic National Committee, announced Sunday that she would challenge Rep. Ilhan Omar in the Aug. 11 Democratic primary for Minnesota’s safely blue 5th District.
“We may not all agree, but we need to work together to fix our problems, because we can’t have another two years of people being divisive,” Reeves told KSTP at her launch. “They can’t sit in the same room, they can’t have a conversation, ‘cause who loses out is CD-5. And we can’t have that any longer.”
Omar, who is one of the most outspoken progressives in Congress, first won this Minneapolis-based seat in 2018, and she’s faced multiple tough primaries to keep it.
While Omar decisively turned back a well-funded opponent in 2020, two years later, she hung on by a surprisingly tight 50-48 spread against former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels. Omar won a rematch against Samuels last year by a stronger 56-43 margin, but that result wasn’t enough to quiet chatter that she could be vulnerable again in 2026.
NE-01
Former State Department official Chris Backemeyer has announced that he would seek the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Rep. Mike Flood in Nebraska’s 1st District, a conservative constituency that includes Lincoln and nearby rural areas.
Donald Trump prevailed here 56-43, but Democrats hope that it could be winnable if a blue wave reaches the Great Plains.
Flood attracted national attention in August after his constituents loudly booed him during a town hall event in Lincoln, an event at which the congressman argued that there was “a lot of misinformation out there” about the GOP’s budget bill. One of those attendees was Backemeyer, who asked Flood, “Who do you work for?”
Backemeyer joins businessman Eric Moyer, who announced his own campaign in August, in the May 12 Democratic primary. Moyer had not reported raising any money through the end of September.
NJ-12
Democratic Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, who had said earlier this year that she’d seek reelection, reversed course on Monday and announced that she would instead retire after six terms representing New Jersey’s safely blue 12th Congressional District.
“I made a commitment years ago to always lead the charge on behalf of those I represent, and I believe I have fulfilled that commitment to the very best of my abilities,” said Watson Coleman, 80. The congresswoman, whose 2014 win made her the first Black woman to represent the Garden State in Congress, added, “I also believe now is the time to pass the torch to the next leader who will continue leading this charge.”
The 12th District, which includes the state capital of Trenton and western Central Jersey, favored Kamala Harris 61-37, according to calculations by The Downballot. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, and a competitive race is already underway.
East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen and Somerset County Commissioner Shanel Robinson both quickly announced campaigns following Watson Coleman’s announcement.
The New Jersey Globe also mentions many other possible contenders, including Senate aide Sue Altman, who ran a competitive race against Republican Rep. Tom Kean in the 7th District last year, and state Sen. Andrew Zwicker, who lost to Watson Coleman in the 2014 Democratic primary that took place a year before he was elected to the legislature.
Trenton Mayor Reed Gusciora, however, told the Globe he was “just focused” on his current job. While that’s not quite a no, the site anticipates Gusciorato will seek reelection next year.
This will be the first open-seat race in the 12th District since the courts compelled New Jersey to abolish its notorious “county-line” system, which gave certain candidates favorable placement while relegating others to less visible spots known as “ballot Siberia.”
But this system, which was finally done away with this year, was still fully in force in 2014 when Watson Coleman, who was a member of the state Assembly and a former state party chair, ran to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Rush Holt.
In that race, Watson Coleman faced two fellow legislators, state Sen. Linda Greenstein and Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula, as well as Zwicker, a physicist—like Holt—who had not yet won office.
Greenstein had the county line in Middlesex, the most populous community in the 12th, while Watson Coleman enjoyed the line in heavily Democratic Mercer and Middlesex. Chivukula, for his part, only had small Somerset County in his corner, while Zwicker lacked major establishment support.
Local observers and the limited available polling forecast a tight race between Watson Coleman and Greenstein, but Watson Coleman prevailed by a decisive 43-28 spread. The Democratic nominee easily won the general election, and she never had trouble holding her seat during the ensuing decade.
NY-12
Writer Jack Schlossberg, who is the only grandson of John F. Kennedy, will reportedly enter the Democratic primary for New York’s open 12th Congressional District this week, according to Politico.
Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassell also reports that former Gov. Andrew Cuomo “is now exploring a campaign” for this safely blue seat held by retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. A Cuomo spokesperson questioned Kassell’s reporting but did not directly shoot it down, saying, “I don’t know where any of that came from, but everyone should put down the mojitos.”
NY-21
Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik’s decision to run for governor sets off an open-seat race to succeed her in the 21st District in upstate New York, which includes the rural North Country and part of the Albany area.
Donald Trump carried this constituency by a wide 60-39 spread, though even Republicans have fretted that it may not be secure for the GOP. Trump pulled Stefanik’s nomination to become ambassador to the United Nations in March amid escalating Republican worries about their ability to win special elections in red districts.
The potential candidate lineup includes several Republicans who jockeyed earlier this year for the party nomination for the special that never happened. But while local GOP leaders would have chosen a nominee had Stefanik received Senate approval, primary voters will make the decision next June.
Assemblyman Chris Tague tells Spectrum News he’ll decide by early next month whether he’ll run, while fellow Assemblyman Robert Smullen similarly says he’ll make up his mind within the next few weeks. Businessman Josh Parker, who pitched his maple syrup company on a 2016 episode of “Shark Tank,” also confirms that he’s interested in running.
Unfortunately for GOP leaders and their allies, wealthy sticker magnate Anthony Constantino said Friday he will “make my plans known within the next two weeks.”
Constantino, who said in January that Republican county chairs had better nominate him for the special or else he was “just going to come back and get it in 2026,” attracted attention again in June when he claimed the leader of the state Conservative Party “called me to say ‘we intend to kill you.’”
“Was it hyperbole? I don’t know,” Constantino said. “My aide’s brake lines were subsequently cut.” Conservative Party head Gerard Kassar, whose group often backs GOP candidates, subsequently filed a defamation lawsuit against Constantino.
State Sens. Dan Stec and Mark Walczyk, meanwhile, say they won’t run next year. Liz Joy, a conservative activist who appeared to be a frontrunner to receive the GOP nod for the would-be special, is also a no.
Two notable Democrats were already running before Stefanik confirmed her long-awaited run for governor last week.
Dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, whom Democratic leaders designated as their nominee for the ill-fated special, finished September with over $2 million banked for what’s now a campaign for a full term. Former White House trade official Dylan Hewitt, who began running earlier that same month, finished the third quarter with almost $140,000 available.
TX-09
Manvel City Council Member Crystal DeLeon-Sarmiento said Monday that she’d enter the Republican primary for the revamped 9th District. The new congressional map, though, places DeLeon-Sarmiento’s community in GOP Rep. Randy Weber’s 14th District.
TX-19
Rep. Jodey Arrington, a five-term Republican who chairs the powerful Budget Committee, unexpectedly announced Tuesday morning that he will not seek reelection next year.
Arrington, 53, will be giving up Texas’ 19th District, a dark red constituency based in Lubbock and rural West Texas that was untouched by the GOP’s new gerrymander. Donald Trump prevailed 75-24 here, and numerous local Republicans are sure to take a look at running.
TX-28
Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina is advertising a “special evening” on Dec. 1 that may be the launch of his long-awaited campaign against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar. Tijerina, a Democrat-turned-Republican who has spent the better part of the year publicly flirting with a campaign, has until Dec. 8 to place his name on the ballot.
Ballot Measures
AK Ballot
Conservatives waging their second campaign to repeal Alaska’s unique top-four election system announced Thursday that they’d submitted 48,000 signatures to get their plan on next year’s ballot. Last year, voters rejected their attempt by an extremely narrow 50.1 to 49.9, a difference of just 664 votes statewide.
The campaign says election officials have 60 days to verify they turned in at least 34,000 valid signatures, which represents 10% of the votes cast in the last general election, and also hit targets in 30 of the 40 legislative districts. The current system, though, will still be used for next year’s elections, including the packed open-seat race for governor.
UT-Redistricting: Late last night, Judge Dianna Gibson overruled Utah Republicans' map that created two single-digit Trump districts and instead selected a map offered by the plaintiffs that has an entirely Salt Lake County district, which is Harris +24.
https://www.abc4.com/news/politics/inside-utah-politics/redistricting-ruling-judge-rules-against-utah-legislature-and-picks-plaintiffs-map-1-for-utahs-2026-midterms/
While it would have been hilarious for Republicans to potentially lose two moderately Republican districts instead of one Safe D seat, I believe this is unquestionably the kind of map that was intended by the initiative.
A damning article from Jennifer Rubin on the eight Senate Democrats who voted with Republicans. Furious, the former Washing Post columnist accuses those eight of "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory".
https://contrarian.substack.com/p/words-and-phrases-we-could-do-without-d03
My thought (one of many) on this: Senator Dick Durbin is one of those eight. As Minority Whip, his job is to keep the caucus united under its leadership. Not that we have seen much of that from Senator Durbin! But for the Whip to break with the majority, instead of preventing that, Durbin instead chose to cast his vote with the Thune and the Republicans.
Shame!