Morning Digest: Jared Golden, a vocal centrist, announces retirement from the House
Democrats will now need to defend an open seat that's backed Trump three times
Leading Off
ME-02
Maine Rep. Jared Golden, who holds the reddest congressional district among House Democrats anywhere in the nation, unexpectedly announced his retirement on Wednesday.
“I have never loved politics,” Golden wrote in an op-ed for the Bangor Daily News. “But I find purpose and meaning in service, and the Marine in me has been able to slog along through the many aspects of politics I dislike by focusing on the good work that Congress is capable of producing with patience and determination.”
“But after 11 years as a legislator, I have grown tired of the increasing incivility and plain nastiness that are now common from some elements of our American community — behavior that, too often, our political leaders exhibit themselves,” he added.
Though he’d recently drawn a primary challenge from state Auditor Matt Dunlap and faced a showdown in the general election with former Gov. Paul LePage, Golden insisted that the prospect of another bruising election cycle had not spurred him to quit.
“I know that if I were to continue my campaign, I would prevail,” he said. “I don’t fear losing. What has become apparent to me is that I now dread the prospect of winning.”
Golden was one of the most moderate members of the Democratic caucus, but even among fellow travelers, he often stood out for his frequent attacks on his own party.
The congressman has been one of the few prominent Democrats who have advocated for Trump’s massive tariffs. He told Axios in April, “My biggest worry is that they’re going to do this and lose faith and political will and back away.”
In September, Golden was the lone House Democrat to vote for the GOP’s government funding bill, and he’s spent the shutdown loudly griping about his party. Last month, he told the Wall Street Journal, “I’m just uncomfortable lying about the strategy to win and shutting down the government. We’ve never been the party that does that.”
At the same time, he was regularly held up by centrist think tanks as a model for Democrats hoping to win difficult terrain—something he first did during the 2018 blue wave, when he narrowly unseated Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin to capture northern Maine’s conservative-leaning 2nd District.
Golden’s moderate image initially proved to be an asset in his quest to hold onto such challenging turf.
As the incumbent, he convincingly secured reelection in 2020 even as Donald Trump was carrying his district again. That race also proved to be his only congressional campaign in which ranked choice tabulations weren’t required to determine the winner. In 2022, Golden thwarted Poliquin’s attempts at a comeback, and he just barely held on last year as Trump was taking the 2nd District by a decisive 54-44 margin.
To the relief of Democratic leaders in the House—and the disappointment of those who wanted him to challenge Sen. Susan Collins—Golden announced in May that he’d run again. However, it soon became clear he was in for his toughest campaign yet.
While LePage, a far-right figure whose own gubernatorial comeback campaign ended in a stinging defeat in 2022, initially seemed like he might prove to be a has-been, several polls showed him defeating Golden. The congressman’s prospects got even dicier in October when Dunlap launched a primary campaign against Golden, whom he said was enabling Trump.
Dunlap, who also argued that Democrats didn’t need Golden to hold the 2nd District, responded to the incumbent’s departure by once again pitching himself as an electable alternative.
“As I said when I announced, the voters deserve a representative who will fight for a people’s agenda – affordable health care, affordable housing, and living wages,” he tweeted. “They also deserve a candidate who will show up. … And they definitely deserve better than Paul LePage.”
Dunlap, though, may not be the only Democrat who wants to take on LePage.
Both Inside Elections and the Bangor Daily News speculate that former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who was the target of malicious attacks from LePage more than a decade ago, could end his campaign for governor and run here instead. Jackson, who lost the primary for the 2nd in 2014, did not respond to the paper’s request for comment.
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Holy crap, what an election!
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Election Recaps
Minneapolis, MN Mayor
Mayor Jacob Frey secured a third term on Wednesday morning after election officials performed ranked choice tabulations for the previous day’s nonpartisan general election.
Frey finished with a 53-47 lead over state Sen. Omar Fateh, a fellow Democrat who was challenging the incumbent from the left. While that was narrower than Frey’s 42-32 advantage among first-choice preferences, Fateh, who formed a “rank all three” alliance with two other challengers, didn’t pick up enough support to come out on top in the second and final round.
Senate
MA-Sen
Democratic Rep. Ayanna Pressley, who’s been the subject of much speculation about a possible Senate bid, is “seriously considering” the possibility, according to unnamed sources who spoke with Politico.
In a statement, a Pressley spokesperson did rule out a bid, saying the congresswoman “remains focused on ending Republicans’ government shutdown, serving her district, and effectively fighting back against the White House’s attacks.”
Should she run, it could set up a three-way primary battle with Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton, who launched a challenge to the incumbent last month. A poll from UMass Amherst released earlier this week found Markey leading in such a race with 35% of the vote, while Moulton took 25% and Pressley 21%.
Should Pressley stay out, a new survey from Data for Progress shows Markey with a sizable 53-34 advantage over Moulton. That’s similar to the 51-28 Markey lead UMass Amherst gave him in a one-on-one matchup.
House
CA-01
State Senate Pro Tem Mike McGuire’s team confirmed Wednesday that he’s considering challenging Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa now that voters have approved a new congressional map that dramatically revamps LaMalfa’s 1st Congressional District.
McGuire, though, is not the only Democrat who wants to take on the seven-term Republican. Audrey Denney, an agriculture consultant who challenged LaMalfa in 2018 and 2020, said back in August that she’d run if Proposition 50 passed.
While Denney faced long odds in the previous incarnation of the 1st, which largely resembles the northeastern California constituency LaMalfa represents today, things are very different now.
The new version, which now includes McGuire’s base in the North Coast region, would have favored Kamala Harris 54-42, a colossal 37-point shift to the left from Donald Trump’s 61-36 showing in the existing district.
CA-03, CA-05, CA-06
Democratic Rep. Ami Bera announced Tuesday night that he’d run for California’s new 3rd District rather than campaign for the 6th District, which shares a number with the Sacramento-area constituency he currently represents.
But while Bera predicted last month a “clash of the titans” would take place between himself and Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, whose 3rd District just became considerably bluer, Kiley is keeping everyone guessing about his own plans.
The Republican responded to the passage of Proposition 50 by saying he was “committed to earning the support of voters for another term in the U.S. House of Representatives next year,” but he didn’t announce which set of voters he’d try to win over.
Politico speculates he could instead seek the safely red 5th District, but such a move would bring him into conflict with fellow GOP Rep. Tom McClintock. The publication also notes that Kiley could instead defend the 3rd or try to replace Bera in the 6th, though either race would be difficult. The new 3rd would have favored Kamala Harris 55-44, while the 6th would have backed her by a similar 54-45 margin.
When reporters asked Kiley on Wednesday if he’d take on McClintock, he did not rule out seeking either the 5th District or another constituency. He instead said, “What I can say with some confidence is that, wherever I run, it will be one of the six districts that includes part of my current district, because I want to at least be able to keep some of the same constituents.”
Former Democratic state Sen. Richard Pan, meanwhile, responded to Bera’s announcement by saying that he would run for the 6th. Last month, when Pan launched a campaign against Kiley in the 3rd, his campaign told The Downballot he would keep running there regardless of the outcome of the vote on Proposition 50.
Several other Democrats in the Sacramento area have reportedly been considering running for whichever seat Bera decided not to seek.
Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall, meanwhile, launched her campaign against Kiley in April, which was well before California even began contemplating a redraw, but she ended September with just under $140,000 on hand. Hall responded to the passage of Proposition 50 by tweeting, “California’s 3rd congressional district has changed, but my campaign has not.”
CA-40, CA-48
Republican Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim both announced on Wednesday that they would campaign for the new 40th District, which sets off what will be a closely watched and expansive battle for this conservative constituency in Southern California—and one that might continue all the way until November of next year.
What’s more, a third member of California’s nine-member GOP delegation could join them. Republican Rep. Darrell Issa responded to the passage of Proposition 50, which transformed his reliably red 48th District into a light blue seat, with a defiant statement saying, “I’m not going anywhere. I’ll continue to represent the people of California—regardless of their party or where they live.”
But Politico, the Los Angeles Times, and the Cook Political Report all speculate that Issa, who retired ahead of the 2018 blue wave only to wage a comeback two years later in a much redder district, could try a similar maneuver in 2026—only without the retirement part. Issa, though, has yet to publicly indicate if he’s interested in seeking the 40th District.
Politico adds that GOP observers are watching to see if former state Sen. Melissa Melendez, who came close to challenging Calvert in 2022 following the last round of redistricting, runs this time.
The battle between Calvert and Kim will be plenty interesting regardless of who else gets in.
Calvert, who was first elected to Congress in 1992, begins with a geographical edge, since the revised 40th includes about half of Calvert’s current 41st District. (The new 41st District does include any of the turf he currently serves.) Kim, a three-term congresswoman who represents the existing 40th, represents about a third of the redrawn constituency.
Kim, though, has far more cash available. She finished September with a gigantic $4.8 million war chest, while Calvert had a still formidable $2.9 million at his disposal. (Issa, likewise, had $2.5 million, though he’s personally very wealthy.)
Kim is already making use of her money: She announced Wednesday that she was booking over $3 million in ads that will begin in April and last through the June 2 top-two primary.
Complicating things further is that two notable Democrats who were already challenging Kim, art gallery owner Esther Kim Varet and immigration attorney Lisa Ramirez, both say they’ll keep running for the 40th.
The new version of this constituency, which Democrats drew to be reliably red to make other seats in Orange and Riverside counties more winnable, would have favored Donald Trump 55-42, so it will be difficult for either Democrat to flip this seat. It’s still possible, however, that a Democrat could advance out of the top-two primary and deny either Calvert or Kim a spot in the general election.
If two Republicans do win enough support to forge on to November, though, then voters will be in for five more months of intra-GOP warfare.
ME-01
State Rep. Tiffany Roberts announced on Wednesday that she would challenge Rep. Chellie Pingree in the Democratic primary for Maine’s liberal 1st Congressional District.
Roberts, a self-described centrist in her mid-40s, did not offer specific criticisms of the 70-year-old incumbent but instead told the Bangor Daily News that her campaign is “about building the bridges to pipelines of younger generations that want to serve as well.”
NJ-11
Democratic Rep. Mike Sherrill’s victory in Tuesday’s race for governor means that New Jersey will soon hold a special election to replace her in Congress, and the race is already heating up.
Some Democrats had already announced bids for the 11th District even before Sherrill’s win, including Morris Township Deputy Mayor Jeff Grayzel, Maplewood Township Committeeman Dean Dafis, and Cammie Croft, a former White House aide during the Obama administration.
Others had expressed interest, including former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who filed paperwork with the FEC on Monday night, and Chatham Borough Councilman Justin Strickland, who did the same thing nearly a year ago.
The day after Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli, one new candidate also joined the primary, Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett.
Additional possibilities include Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, whom Politico said in September “is considered all but certain to run if Sherrill becomes governor.” The New Jersey Globe also mentioned South Orange Mayor Sheena Collum, former Biden administration official Jack Miller, and Assemblywoman Rosy Bagolie as potential candidates last month.
Democrats will be favored to hold Sherrill’s seat. Kamala Harris carried it by a 53-45 margin last year, and it’s all but certain that Sherrill herself turned in a stronger performance in her home district on Tuesday night.
VA-02
In what would be a major recruiting coup for Democrats, Brandon Jarvis of Virginia Scope reports that former Rep. Elaine Luria is “planning to announce soon” that she’ll seek a rematch with Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans.
Luria, a Navy veteran, unseated Republican Scott Taylor in Virginia’s swingy 2nd District during the 2018 blue wave by a 51-49 margin, then defeated him again by a wider 52-46 spread two years later. But in 2022, she narrowly lost to Kiggans, then a state senator, 52-48.
Kiggans prevailed last year over Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal in another close race, winning 51-47 and ensuring she’d remain a Democratic target. Several candidates were already running against her, including Navy Reserve veteran James Osyf, Marine veteran Michael Williamson, and physician Nila Devanath, though Luria’s name recognition and network would make her the heavy favorite in a primary.
The eventual nominee could also get a boost if Democrats in the state legislature succeed with a plan to amend the state constitution that would allow them to redraw Virginia’s congressional map.
Utah
Former Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams has informed supporters that he plans to launch a comeback bid for Congress on Nov. 13, reports the Salt Lake Tribune. A state court judge will soon decide which congressional map Utah will use next year.
Mayors & County Leaders
Albuquerque, NM Mayor
A poll for allies of Democratic Mayor Tim Keller shows him with a 45-38 lead over Republican Darren White, a former Bernalillo County sheriff, ahead of their Dec. 9 runoff.
Local reporter Joe Monahan writes that GBAO went into the field in mid-October, before it was even clear whether there would be a runoff—or if White would be Keller’s opponent.
Keller, though, secured just 36% of the vote in Tuesday’s nonpartisan primary, which was well short of the majority he needed to win outright. White outpaced former U.S. Attorney Alexander Uballez, a Democrat who was running to Keller’s left, 31-19 for second place, while three other candidates were stuck in the single digits.
Uballez, whose voters will be key to a Keller win, did not endorse the mayor on election night, but he implored his backers to oppose White next month.
“We cannot allow the keys to Albuquerque to be handed over to Darren White, who would roll over for Donald Trump,” he said.
Poll Pile
GA-Gov (D): University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Keisha Lance Bottoms: 40, Michael Thurmond: 11, Geoff Duncan: 5, Jason Esteves: 3, Derrick Jackson: 1, Ruwa Romman: 1.
GA-Gov (R): UGA: Burt Jones: 22, Brad Raffensperger: 15, Chris Carr: 7, Clark Dean: 1.
MI-07: Public Policy Polling (D): Matt Maasdam (D): 43, Tom Barrett (R-inc): 39; Bridget Brink (D): 45, Barrett (R-inc): 41 (no client identified).
Editor’s Note: This newsletter incorrectly said that Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall does not appear to have said what congressional district she will run in following the passage of Proposition 50. Hall responded to Proposition 50’s win by writing, “California’s 3rd congressional district has changed, but my campaign has not.”
Would be great if Troy Jackson moves from the Governor's race to ME 2.
Pelosi is retiring