Morning Digest: First major Democrat launches Illinois Senate bid, attacking Washington's 'old playbook'

Other big names are eyeing the race, though, and likely to jump in soon

Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (center) campaigning in 2022 with Gov. JB Pritzker (right) (credit: Juliana Stratton campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

IL-Sen

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's Thursday morning announcement made her the first prominent candidate to enter the race to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin, a fellow Illinois Democrat who said he wouldn't run again less than 24 hours earlier, though she won't have the primary to herself for long.

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Stratton rose to prominence in 2016 when she challenged state Rep. Kenneth Dunkin, a veteran Chicago legislator who had repeatedly made life difficult for his party. Stratton had the support of the state's powerful party establishment, and she also got an unusual assist from the Windy City's most famous politico.

"The people of Chicago deserve leaders who follow through," President Barack Obama said in a TV ad for her campaign. "Juliana Stratton has spent her career serving our community."

Allies of Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner tried to save Dunkin, but Stratton ousted the incumbent in a 68-32 landslide before easily prevailing in the general election.

She didn't remain in the legislature long, though, because billionaire venture capitalist JB Pritzker soon chose her to be his running mate in his 2018 contest against Rauner. Their ticket decisively unseated Rauner and Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti, making Stratton the first Black woman to hold the post of lieutenant governor in Illinois.

Stratton, who won again with Pritzker in 2022, is reportedly counting on the well-heeled governor to aid her new effort. Politico reported last month that Stratton was telling supporters that she anticipated that Pritzker would be "heavily involved financially" in backing her planned Senate campaign.

Stratton launched that campaign Thursday with a video in which, after decrying Donald Trump and Elon Musk, she tells the audience, "In Washington, they're still doing the same old things they've always done, and that old playbook isn't working." That line is accompanied by footage of an unseen member of Congress holding up a small paddle reading "FALSE" during Trump's address last month, a tactic critics loudly mocked.

Stratton's unsubtle critique of congressional Democrats comes at a time when three members of the House are preparing to oppose her in the primary.

Rep. Robin Kelly said Thursday she would "be making an announcement next week about my plans." WBEZ further anticipates that Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Lauren Underwood will both "launch bids within hours and days" of Durbin's retirement decision.

But even in the event of a busy primary, Democrats would be favored to hold all three of the House seats currently represented by these potential candidates.

Calculations from The Downballot show that Underwood's 14th Congressional District favored Kamala Harris 52-47 last year, which makes this constituency in Chicago's western exurbs the most competitive. It would still be difficult, though, for Republicans to flip the seat with Trump threatening to drag down his party next year.

Krishnamoorthi's 8th District, which includes Chicago's western outer suburbs, backed Harris by a slightly larger 53-46 spread. Kelly's 2nd District, which is also in the Chicago suburbs but includes part of the city itself, went for Harris 66-33.

Notably, Stratton, Kelly, and Underwood could each be the second Black woman to represent Illinois in the Senate. The first was Carol Moseley Braun, whose 1992 victory made her both the first Black woman and first Black Democrat to ever serve in the upper chamber.

Krishnamoorthi, meanwhile, would be the nation's second Indian American senator. The first—and to date only—was Harris when she represented California. She was also the second Black woman in the Senate after Moseley Braun.

Few other prominent Democrats in the Land of Lincoln have talked about running for Senate, but one statewide figure wants his name in the conversation. Treasurer Michael Frerichs told the Chicago Tribune's Rick Pearson on Wednesday that he's considering running for Durbin's seat.

State Sen. Robert Peters, however, has set his sights on a different office. While Politico reported he was considering campaigning for the U.S. Senate last week, reporter Shia Kapos wrote Thursday that he's now thinking about running to replace Kelly in the House.

There's considerably less excitement on the Republican side, though Rep. Darin LaHood informed Pearson that he's interested. The congressman, however, acknowledged to NOTUS back in January that he'd have been better off if Trump had lost last year and left him with "a good atmosphere" in which to run.

LaHood would also need to win over a statewide electorate that's far more liberal than his constituency in the rural northern part of the state. While Trump carried LaHood's 16th District 61-38, Harris won Illinois 54-43.

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Senate

MA-Sen, RI-Sen

Sens. Ed Markey of Massachusetts and Jack Reed of Rhode Island are the oldest Democratic senators seeking reelection now that Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin has announced his retirement, and both septuagenarians want another term. Neither New Englander currently faces serious intraparty opposition, but two prominent House members have not ruled out challenging the 78-year-old Massachusetts senator.

Rep. Ayanna Pressley, one of the most prominent progressives in Congress, was asked about her interest in opposing Markey last month at a Boston Globe event. Pressley, 51, responded by saying she was concentrating on "the fights in front of us," and that she'd leave it to the person who submitted the question to "do the work of conjecture and punditry." Reporter Joshua Miller noted this answer was "definitely was not 'no.'"

Rep. Jake Auchincloss, who has embraced a much more moderate profile than either Markey or Pressley, likewise didn't rule anything out in January, and he's keeping his name in contention. Auchincloss, 37, didn't directly answer when Axios recently asked him about running against Markey. The congressman instead said, "My political focus is taking back the House," adding that his PAC was "again going to be supporting battleground Democrats."

Major Rhode Island Democrats, by contrast, aren't showing any obvious interest in taking on the 75-year-old Reed. The senator's only opponent so far is Connor Burbridge, an elder care worker who launched his campaign this week. Burbridge, 30, told WPRI he was taking on Reed to "rebuild the Democratic Party with fresh ideas and new energy."

MI-Sen

Rep. Haley Stevens publicized an endorsement from fellow Rep. Hillary Scholten on Thursday for next year's Democratic Senate primary. Scholten initially considered waging her own campaign for the upper chamber, but she instead announced last month that she'd seek a third term in the House.

NH-Sen

Retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen endorsed Rep. Chris Pappas on Thursday in the Democratic primary for her seat. Pappas has been on a glide path to the Democratic nomination ever since fellow Rep. Maggie Goodlander announced last week that she'd back him rather than run herself.

OR-Sen

Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley hasn't indicated that he might retire, but his team would not say whether he'd seek a fourth term when the Willamette Week inquired last week. Instead, Merkley's staff said the Oregon senator and his wife "will make a formal campaign announcement regarding 2026 sometime this quarter."

Merkley, who is 68, first won his seat in 2008 in a close race against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith, but he had no trouble keeping it in 2014 or 2020. Kamala Harris carried the state 55-41, so Democrats will be favored no matter what Merkley decides.

TX-Sen

Retired NASA astronaut Terry Virts plans to seek the Democratic nomination to run against Republican Sen. John Cornyn next year, reports the site GZero. Virts, whose two flights into space included half a year aboard the International Space Station, did not respond to the publication's requests for comments.

Governors

AL-Gov, AL-Sen

Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who's been considering a bid for Alabama's open governorship next year, has reportedly been telling donors that he intends to run, according to the conservative Yellowhammer News. The site says that a kickoff "is imminent in the coming weeks."

Tuberville is up for reelection to his current job next year, so a campaign for governor would set off an open-seat race to replace him in the Senate.

FL-Gov

Two prominent Florida pols who'd been eyeing next year's race for governor have switched their party affiliations, with one independent becoming a Democrat … and one Democrat becoming an independent.

Former Rep. David Jolly, who served in Congress as a Republican until 2017 but left the GOP next year, just re-registered as a Democrat, ensuring he can run in the party's primary next year. Politico reports that Jolly has also created a political committee that will allow him to begin raising funds ahead of a possible bid.

At the same time, though, Senate Minority Leader Jason Pizzo announced he was leaving the Democratic Party and would instead register with no party affiliation. It's not clear whether Pizzo still has thoughts about running for governor as an independent, but he had harsh words for his former party, telling fellow senators, "The Democratic Party in Florida is dead."

The Senate Democratic caucus, which now stands at 10 members in the 40-seat chamber, will now pick a new leader.

NM-Gov

Democratic Lt. Gov. Howie Morales will "decide by June whether I'm running for governor," he informed columnist Milan Simonich at the Santa Fe New Mexican on Tuesday. Morales would join former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman in the primary to succeed termed-out Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a fellow Democrat.

But the Democratic field may expand before Morales decides, as former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima sounds likely to run. Miyagishima, who formed an exploratory committee in February, recently told Source NM's Danielle Prokop, "I'm technically exploring, but ever so close." He added that he would "probably be lending myself a good chunk" of money, though he didn't indicate how much.

SD-Gov, SD-Sen

State House Speaker Jon Hansen announced his campaign for governor of South Dakota on Thursday, making him the first prominent Republican to enter the race to lead this red state. The post, however, is held by Republican Larry Rhoden, who was elevated from the lieutenant governorship in January and has yet to announce if he'll seek a full term next year.

Several other Republicans are talking about running, but Sen. Mike Rounds told KELOLAND News earlier this week that he will not be one of them. Rounds, 70, didn't reveal whether he'd seek a third term in the Senate next year, though, saying, "I'll wait a little bit before I make a formal announcement."

Attorney General Marty Jackley, for his part, told KELOLAND that he'd say more about his interest in the race on Friday. The Dakota Scout's Joe Sneve wrote earlier this month that Rhoden and Jackley, who both hail from the GOP's old establishment wing, are unlikely to run against one another.

Hansen, by contrast, is an ardent hardliner who co-chaired last year's successful campaign to defeat a constitutional amendment that would have ended the state's near-total abortion ban. The speaker has also made a name for himself by opposing an underground carbon sequestration pipeline, a stance that helped like-minded Republicans unseat several state lawmakers in last year's primaries.

In kicking off his bid, Hansen took advantage of a new state law to announce that his candidate for lieutenant governor would be Speaker Pro Tempore Karla Lems, a fellow pipeline foe. Until this cycle, primary voters were tasked with choosing nominees for governor, while delegates to party conventions would select their running mate.

That changed in March, though, when Rhoden signed a law requiring gubernatorial nominees to choose their own ticket-mates. While no one can officially name a running mate until after the primary, there's nothing preventing candidates like Hansen from saying who their No. 2 would be should they win. Delegates remain tasked with nominating candidates for attorney general, secretary of state, and several other offices.

House

Kentucky

Republican Rep. Brett Guthrie's team did not respond to multiple inquiries from the Lexington Herald-Leader's Austin Horn about whether he'd seek reelection even as four of the other five members of Kentucky's House delegation said they planned to run again. The final representative is Republican Andy Barr, who announced his campaign for Senate earlier this week.

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Guthrie, 61, became chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee in January, though he'd lose that powerful perch if Democrats regain the majority. The nine-term congressman, though, has little to worry about at home in his 2nd District: Donald Trump carried this constituency in the west-central part of the state 70-29, and Guthrie has never faced serious primary opposition.

GOP Rep. Thomas Massie, by contrast, informed Horn he was "absolutely" seeking reelection to his safely red 4th District, which means he won't be joining Barr in the Senate race despite teasing the idea. Trump last month demanded that Massie, whom he called an "automatic 'NO' vote on just about everything," be primaried, but no notable northern Kentucky Republicans have stepped up yet.

Republican Rep. Hal Rogers, meanwhile, also said he has "every intention of running" for a 24th term in the rural eastern part of the state. Rogers, who at 87 is the oldest voting member of the House, has been on the retirement watchlist for the last decade, but he's continued to defy skeptics and remain in office.

Rogers' 5th District backed Trump 81-17, which, as The Downballot's numbers show, made it the second-reddest House seat in the nation last year. (Trump's top district was Alabama's 4th, which is held by Rep. Robert Aderholt.) Rogers also claims the title of dean of the House thanks to his long service and a lucky coincidence: While New Jersey Republican Chris Smith was sworn in on the same day in 1981, Rogers has the advantage in seniority because he's listed first in alphabetical order.

Kentucky's other two representatives, unsurprisingly, also confirmed to Horn they'd run again. Republican Rep. James Comer will defend his safely red 1st district in western Kentucky next year even as he muses that he might run for governor in 2027.

Rep. Morgan McGarvey, who is the only Democrat in the delegation, will also seek a third term in the 3rd District, a Louisville-based constituency that backed Kamala Harris 59-40.

OH-09

Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem launched a campaign for Ohio's 9th Congressional District on Thursday, making her the first notable Republican to challenge longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Kaptur will be a top GOP target next year, and the state's upcoming round of mid-decade redistricting will give Republican map makers the chance to make her district even redder.

Republicans heavily gerrymandered Kaptur's Toledo-based district, which was once solidly Democratic, the last time they drew the maps. Under the lines in place since 2022, Donald Trump carried the district by a 53-46 margin, according to new calculations from The Downballot.

Despite Trump's performance, Kaptur secured a 22nd term by a 48.3 to 47.6 margin over former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who's been mentioned for a possible rematch. At least two other Republican office-holders are also in the mix, state Rep. Josh Williams and state Senate President Rob McColley. The 78-year-old Kaptur, meanwhile, has indicated she plans to run again.

Attorneys General

GA-AG

Republican state Sen. Bill Cowsert, who is the brother-in-law of Gov. Brian Kemp, on Wednesday became the first prominent candidate from either party to announce a campaign for attorney general of Georgia.

Cowsert is seeking to replace Republican Chris Carr, who is running to succeed Kemp rather than campaigning for a third full term. (While Kemp cannot seek reelection, there are no term limits on Carr's office.)

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Cowsert, however, isn't the only Republican who wants to be attorney general. Fellow state Sen. Brian Strickland filed paperwork earlier this month to raise money as he "formally explore[s] the campaign," though he maintained that he was still deciding what to do. The Associated Press described Strickland as a "relative moderate."

No Democrats have publicly expressed interest in running yet, though that's sure to change. The party last won this office back in 2006, but a good political climate could give Democrats an opening in this swing state.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is launching a new ad attacking former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, making him the first candidate running to be New York's next mayor to go on the airwaves ahead of the June 24 Democratic primary.

Mamdani narrates his new spot, arguing that "corrupt politicians like Eric Adams and Andrew Cuomo have sold us out to billionaires and corporations rigging the economy against us." Cuomo, he charges, is "running for Adams' second term," while Mamdani promises "to make housing, child care, and public transit affordable" and "to take on bad landlords and greedy corporations."

Cuomo, however, has gotten heavy air support from an outside group called Fix the City, which AdImpact says has spent or reserved $5.8 million so far. The New York Times reports that Mamdani is spending $100,000 to run his ad over the next week.