I'm pretty bitter about these polls right now, because the voters didn't vote the only intelligent, responsible way when they had the chance, but do you have an opinion about the rough number of House seats that would flip with a 3-point lead in the GCB? That sure wouldn't flip the Senate.
In 2024 in the house we fell three seats short while losing the house popular vote by a bit over two points. Going from there to winning by three would represent a five point shift in our favor.
I expect that would easily be enough to flip the house with some seats to spare.
The senate can't flip without a huge wave due to the map. We need to pick up four seats to win it now due to the VP breaking ties. That kind of win might be enough to net us the two most plausible pickups (NC and ME). After that the challenge goes up substantially. The next-best targets are IA, TX, OH, and AK. All of which are stretches even in a 2018 style wave.
NY Times/Siena poll:
Trump approval 42/54
GCB D 47 R 44
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/04/25/us/elections/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html
I'm pretty bitter about these polls right now, because the voters didn't vote the only intelligent, responsible way when they had the chance, but do you have an opinion about the rough number of House seats that would flip with a 3-point lead in the GCB? That sure wouldn't flip the Senate.
Can’t judge the senate by the generic. They’re individual races. A three point win would probably be around a 15 seat gain in the House.
In 2024 in the house we fell three seats short while losing the house popular vote by a bit over two points. Going from there to winning by three would represent a five point shift in our favor.
I expect that would easily be enough to flip the house with some seats to spare.
The senate can't flip without a huge wave due to the map. We need to pick up four seats to win it now due to the VP breaking ties. That kind of win might be enough to net us the two most plausible pickups (NC and ME). After that the challenge goes up substantially. The next-best targets are IA, TX, OH, and AK. All of which are stretches even in a 2018 style wave.