Morning Digest: Sherrod Brown will reportedly seek a comeback

Democrats would gain a top Senate recruit—and expand the map into red Ohio

Former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (at center), with supporters (credit: Sherrod Brown Facebook)

Leading Off

OH-Sen

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown has reportedly decided to challenge Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio, a major development that would give Democrats a long-coveted recruit in a tough state.

The news, which was first reported by the Plain Dealer's Jeremy Pelzer, has major implications for Democrats well outside the Buckeye State. Win or lose, Brown's entry widens a narrow map for Senate Democrats, increasing the number of ways they could net the four seats they need to retake the majority next year.

Brown, who lost reelection last year to Bernie Moreno for the state's other Senate seat, has yet to confirm he'll take on Husted, but Axios reports he'll announce his campaign "in the next two weeks."

Brown has the chance to return to the Senate so soon after his defeat because JD Vance's election as vice president set off a special election for the final years of the Senate term he won in 2022.

Brown and Husted, whom GOP Gov. Mike DeWine appointed in January, would face off in November of next year, and the winner would be up for a full six-year term in 2028.

Morning Digest: How the pick to replace Vance in the Senate upends Ohio's race for governor

Brown began talking about competing in the special election just a week after losing to Moreno, but it was far from certain that he'd go for it. Over the next nine months, Brown kept everyone guessing whether he'd wage a comeback, run to replace the term-limited DeWine as governor, or decide to retire after five decades in politics.

Senate Democrats, though, had few viable backup options if Brown decided not to oppose Husted. Other prominent would-be candidates like Reps. Emilia Sykes and Greg Landsman, as well as former Rep. Tim Ryan, had all said they wouldn't run.

State Sen. Casey Weinstein was the only notable Democrat who'd expressed interest in running if Brown didn't, though he said in June he'd defer to the former senator.

Democrats, by contrast, have more options in the race for governor. Amy Acton, who served as state health director during the opening months of the COVID pandemic, announced her campaign in January.

Ryan's team, meanwhile, said Tuesday that Brown's decision to run for the Senate has "renewed and heightened" the former congressman's interest in the governorship.

Brown, who is 72, began his electoral career in 1974 when he first won a spot in the state House at the age of 21, a victory that made him the youngest person ever elected to the legislature at the time. (That record was later broken in 2000 by Derrick Seaver, who won office immediately after graduating high school at age 18.)

Brown, who went on to serve both as secretary of state and as a congressman, won his Senate seat during the 2006 blue wave by unseating DeWine by double digits. The senator held off Republican Josh Mandel in 2012 as Barack Obama was carrying this longtime battleground state, but almost no one knew that Ohio was about to experience a massive—and enduring—swing to the right.

When Brown sought his third term in 2018, two years after Donald Trump easily won the state, he was able to overcome the huge political shifts that had taken out other Buckeye State Democrats. Brown's image as a progressive populist, as well as a weak effort by Republican Rep. Jim Renacci, helped him prevail 53-47.

That, however, was the sole victory Ohio Democrats enjoyed in a partisan election that year, which also saw DeWine claim the governor's office and lead the rest of the GOP ticket to victory. (Democrats won officially nonpartisan races for the state Supreme Court, though Republicans later changed the rules to also make these races partisan affairs.)

Brown ran once again last year, but he faced an even more challenging battle. Trump, who had decisively won Ohio again in 2020, was on track to once again easily claim the state's electoral votes, and Brown needed to win a significant number of crossover voters to fend off Moreno.

He did indeed run well ahead of Kamala Harris, who lost the state 55-44, but not by enough to secure a fourth term. Moreno prevailed 50-46, but Brown's considerable overperformance left Democrats hoping he'd run again.

Brown is now doing just that by opposing Husted, who was serving as lieutenant governor when DeWine elevated him to the Senate in January. Husted, who has Trump's endorsement, faces no serious primary opposition, so he and Brown will both be able to concentrate on their looming showdown.

Husted begins the general election as the favorite in a state where Democrats haven't had much to celebrate since Brown's last win in 2018. An April poll from YouGov for Bowling Green University found Husted leading Brown 49-46 in what was still a hypothetical matchup, though we haven't seen any more recent numbers yet.

But while Brown faces an uphill battle to return to the Senate, he's still the rare Democrat who can put this seat in play. His entry into the race will almost certainly force Republicans to spend crucial resources in a race they'd hoped would be an afterthought, and an upset would dramatically strengthen Democrats' prospects of flipping the chamber.

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Redistricting Roundup

IN Redistricting

A trio of notable Indiana Republicans have come out against the possibility of further gerrymandering the state's congressional map to target Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in the 1st District, reports Politico's Adam Wren.

Two represent potentially competitive legislative districts in the Indianapolis suburbs. First-term state Rep. Danny Lopez, whom Wren describes as "[r]espected," says that he's "a hard 'no' on potential efforts to redraw electoral maps in Indiana mid-decade." Meanwhile, state Rep. Becky Cash, who won reelection by just 66 votes last year, offered a similar sentiment.

It's not just vulnerable suburban Republicans who are opposed, though. State Rep. Jim Lucas, who serves a dark-red district in southern Indiana, also says he's a "HARD NO." Wren calls Lucas "among the hardest of hard right characters" and notes that he "drove to Springfield, Ohio, last year to search for cat eaters."

Top Hoosier Republicans had previously sounded lukewarm about the idea, despite JD Vance's in-person visit to press them on a remap, though Gov. Mike Braun did not entirely rule out the idea.

LA Redistricting

The Supreme Court has set additional oral arguments in a Louisiana redistricting case that could see the end of the Voting Rights Act for Oct. 15, a move that election law expert Rick Hasen says could allow the court to demolish the VRA in time to affect the 2026 elections.

If the court's far-right supermajority shreds Section 2, the last remaining pillar of the act, lawmakers everywhere would be able to dismantle districts drawn to allow members of racial and language minorities the ability to elect their preferred candidates.

Instead, they'd be able to divide up such voters between districts, diluting their political power. Such a ruling would affect election maps at every level, from congressional to legislative to further down the ballot.

Hasen says he had originally anticipated that the court "would move slowly in the upcoming term so as not to mess with potential districts being used in the 2026 elections," and it's still possible the justices will hold any ruling until later in the term. Notably, though, October marks the start of the court's first session following its three-month summer vacation.

TX Redistricting

A local TV station reported on Tuesday that Texas House Democrats would end their walkout, but CNN—and lawmakers themselves—said that no such decision had been made.

Late on Tuesday night, we published a detailed special news alert unraveling these apparently competing stories:

Texas Democrats say they have not yet decided to return home

Click through to get up to speed on all of the latest developments, both in Texas and out of state.

Senate

AL-Sen

Republican Rep. Barry Moore, an election conspiracy theorist and member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, announced Tuesday that he would enter the competitive primary for Alabama's open Senate seat.

Moore's campaign to replace GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is giving up his seat to run for governor next year, comes after a turbulent career in state and national politics that almost came crashing to a halt more than once.

Moore, who was elected to the state House in 2010, was indicted by state authorities in 2014 for allegedly committing perjury in connection with a corruption investigation targeting Speaker Mike Hubbard. Moore won renomination later that year by a relatively close 55-45 margin, though, and a jury went on to acquit him.

In 2018, Moore set his sights on unseating Rep. Martha Roby, who had a shaky relationship with conservative voters. Though he fell well short, Roby retired the following cycle, opening the door for Moore to claim the conservative 2nd District in 2020.

The new congressman joined most of the GOP caucus in voting against recognizing Joe Biden's win in the hours after the Jan. 6 riot, but he quickly went even further than most dared go at that time in promoting extremism.

"I understand it was a black police officer that shot the white female veteran," Moore tweeted that very weekend about rioter Ashli Babbitt, who was fatally shot attempting to breach a hallway adjacent to the House chamber. "You know that doesn't fit the narrative."

Moore, who also claimed that "we have more arrests for stealing a podium on Jan. 6th than we do for stealing an election on November 3rd," said he deleted his Twitter account after the site suspended him, though his exile didn't last.

Moore faced another tough test in 2024 when a federal court imposed a new congressional map after ruling that the Voting Rights Act required the creation of a second seat where Black voters could elect their preferred candidates.

As a result, Moore's 2nd District became Democratic-leaning, leading him to converge with fellow GOP Rep. Jerry Carl on the revamped and safely red 1st in the southern part of the state. Carl, who was closer to the House leadership, served considerably more of the redrawn constituency than Moore, but Moore came out on top 52-48.

Moore once again faces a competitive primary as he runs statewide. Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson and Attorney General Steve Marshall were already running to succeed Tuberville, who is on a glide path in the race for governor.

Alabama, like many Southern states, requires candidates to win a majority of the vote in next May's primary to avert a runoff the next month. The eventual GOP nominee should, however, have little trouble in the general election to represent one of the most conservative states in the nation.

IA-Sen

State Rep. Josh Turek became the latest Iowa Democrat to enter the unexpectedly crowded primary to face Republican Sen. Joni Ernst with an announcement on Tuesday.

Turek, who won two gold medals and a bronze as a wheelchair basketball player at the Paralympics, was elected to represent part of western Iowa in 2022 when he defended an open seat by six votes.

After winning reelection by a much more comfortable 52-47 margin last year, Turek launched his new campaign by telling the Des Moines Register, "I am a common sense, moderate Democrat that is willing to work across the aisle in a bipartisan way."

"I'm going to go out there and I'm going to go into every single nook and cranny and corner in these rural communities that Democrats have ignored in a lot of their races and talk about exactly why I am the best candidate, the most electable, and I'm going to talk about the kitchen table issues," he added.

Turek joins a Democratic field that includes fellow state Rep. J.D. Scholten and three other candidates: Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris, military veteran Nathan Sage, and state Sen. Zach Wahls.

With such a busy lineup, it's possible that Democratic primary voters won't have the final say about who becomes their Senate nominee.

That's because Iowa has a unique law that requires candidates for many offices to win at least 35% of the vote to secure their party's nomination at the ballot box. If no one hits that threshold, the task of picking a nominee falls to delegates at a party convention.

The last time this provision came into play in a federal race was in Iowa's swingy 3rd Congressional District in 2014, when none of the GOP's six candidates won so much as a quarter of the vote. Delegates opted for David Young, who had taken fifth place with 16%, and he went on to prevail in the general election.

Ernst, for her part, has yet to announce whether she'll seek a third term.

IL-Sen

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi's allies have publicized an internal poll showing him with a big lead in the March Democratic primary for Illinois' open Senate seat. Z to A Research's survey for a pro-Krishnamoorthi group called the Impact Fund finds him beating Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 51-28, with Rep. Robin Kelly at 13%. Just 8% said they were undecided.

The poll, which was first shared by Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin, was released two months after a survey for Krishnamoorthi's campaign gave him a 32-19 advantage over Stratton, with Kelly at 14%. We have not seen any other polls of this race.

Governors

AK-Gov

Former state Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum on Monday became the sixth notable Republican to enter next year's race for Alaska's open governorship. His kickoff came just days after resigning from term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy's cabinet.

Crum has not previously held elected office. However, the Anchorage Daily News notes that he did face off against one of his many gubernatorial rivals in a different race almost a decade ago when he challenged state Sen. Shelley Hughes in the GOP primary in 2016 but lost 48-41.

Alaskans voted in 2020 to replace the state's traditional party primaries with the current top-four primary system, which will be used in next year's race for governor. In addition to Crum and Hughes, the Republican field also includes former state Sen. Click Bishop, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, and podiatrist Matt Heilala.

Democrats, meanwhile, are waiting to learn whether former Rep. Mary Peltola will run.

Morning Digest: A new poll shows Mary Peltola cruising if she runs for governor

CA-Gov

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa earned an endorsement this week from former Sen. Barbara Boxer, a fellow Democrat who served from 1993 until 2017, in the busy top-two primary for governor of California.

Boxer had previously been supporting Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, who announced last week that she was ending her campaign for governor and would run for treasurer instead.

FL-Gov, FL-LG

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Tuesday that he was appointing state Sen. Jay Collins to the vacant post of lieutenant governor, a decision that heightened speculation that Collins would run to succeed his new boss next year.

Such a launch might be just a few months away. Peter Schorsch of the local news site Florida Politics tweeted that Collins had previously informed supporters that he'd announce on Oct. 1, though Schorsch added that it's possible his timetable has changed because the news of his appointment was "dragged out."

Collins, a Green Beret veteran who lost a leg from injuries he incurred in Afghanistan, has been one of the term-limited governor's few remaining allies in the legislature at a time when DeSantis' influence in GOP politics has waned badly.

Indeed, the frontrunner to replace DeSantis is Rep. Byron Donalds, a former supporter who fell out with the governor during DeSantis' failed presidential campaign. Donalds, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, remains the only notable Republican in the race.

There's been chatter for months that DeSantis would try to boost a preferred alternative candidate by appointing them to replace Jeanette Nunez, who resigned as lieutenant governor in February to lead Florida International University.

However, Florida political watchers are still waiting to see whether former TV anchor Casey DeSantis—who is probably the one potential candidate the governor couldn't appoint to replace Nunez—will run to succeed her husband. The first lady's prospects took a hit this spring due to a scandal surrounding her charity, but she has yet to publicly rule out running.

GA-Gov

Donald Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones on Monday to become governor of Georgia, a move that makes Jones the instant favorite to beat Attorney General Chris Carr in next year's GOP primary. The Republican field, though, could still grow, and a progressive legislator could join the Democratic side as well.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told WTOC earlier on Monday that he remains interested in seeking the Republican nomination for either governor or Senate. Raffensperger, like Carr and termed-out Gov. Brian Kemp, won renomination in 2022 after Trump tried to punish them for opposing his efforts to steal Georgia's electoral votes from Joe Biden.

Trump, though, backed Jones that year in his successful bid for lieutenant governor, and he rewarded him again on Monday. Jones was one of 16 Republicans who claimed to be one of the state's electors in 2020 and signed documents falsely attesting that Trump had carried the state.

The already busy Democratic primary may also expand, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that there's "growing chatter" that state Rep. Ruwa Romman could run. Romman, who the paper identifies as "firmly rooted in the party's left flank," has yet to say anything publicly, and she didn't comment when the AJC inquired about her interest.

NY-Gov

A new poll shows New York Gov. Kathy Hochul leading in both the Democratic primary and general election next year, though with a significant proportion of respondents undecided in each matchup.

Siena University finds Hochul winning renomination 50-15 against Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, with 31% uncommitted and the remaining 4% backing an unnamed "other" option. This is the first survey we've seen since Rep. Ritchie Torres said last month he was "unlikely" to oppose Hochul.

The school also shows Hochul defeating GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik 45-31 in a likely general election face-off, with 20% unsure. The governor enjoyed a larger 47-24 advantage in Siena's June poll, though most of the shift comes from Stefanik winning support from what had been an even larger pool of undecided respondents rather than a decline for Hochul.

Stefanik says she'll decide whether she'll run for governor sometime after New York's local elections in November, though she appears all but certain to challenge Hochul.

PA-Gov

Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity all but announced she would challenge Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro on Monday evening when she debuted a web ad accusing the incumbent of caring more about his presidential ambitions than doing his job in Pennsylvania.

"Stay tuned," the treasurer said in an accompanying tweet, though her team isn't doing anything to conceal her plans. A Garrity advisor told Politico, "I can tell you on the record that this may be both the first ad of 2026 and 2028."

House

TX-18

Former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards has released an internal poll from Brilliant Corners showing her leading in the Nov. 4 all-party special election, while there's a tight race to be her opponent in the all-but-certain December runoff.

• Former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D): 18

• Realtor Carmen Montiel (R): 12

• State Rep. Jolanda Jones (D): 11

• Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D): 10

• Teacher George Foreman IV (I): 6

• Aerospace consultant Isaiah Martin (D): 3

• Undecided: 36

The only other poll we've seen came from the University of Houston last month, which found Edwards and Menefee tied at 19% apiece as Jones and Montiel each took 14%.

Texas' 18th District, which has been vacant since Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner died in March, is safely blue turf.

WA-03

State Senate Minority Leader John Braun kicked off a campaign against sophomore Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez on Tuesday, making him the first notable Republican to enter the race for southwestern Washington's 3rd District.

The establishment-flavored Braun cuts a very different profile from the far-right extremist Gluesenkamp Perez defeated in her first two races, Joe Kent, who was just confirmed as director of the National Counterterrorism Center. However, as the Washington State Standard notes, Braun has antagonized the MAGA base through his choice of endorsements in legislative races.

And he could be joined in next year's top-two primary by another Republican lawmaker, state Rep. Jim Walsh, who also chairs the state GOP and has been eyeing the race.

The two were on opposing sides last year when Braun's caucus spent heavily to support state Rep. Greg Cheney in a primary for an open Senate seat. The state party, meanwhile, supported a more conservative candidate, Brad Benton, who outpaced Cheney in the primary but narrowly lost the general election to Democrat Adrian Cortes.

Walsh downplayed any disunity after he won a second term as chair earlier this year, telling the Standard that the "so-called division kind of melted away" when Braun attended the party meeting at which Walsh was reelected. He also suggested last month that he might defer to Braun.

Braun, for his part, begins the race with an endorsement from Rep. Michael Baumgartner of the 5th District, who is one of just two Republicans in Washington's 10-member House delegation. (The other is Rep. Dan Newhouse, who represents the 4th District.)

No matter who she faces, though, Gluesenkamp Perez will be in for a tough campaign, as she's one of just 13 House Democrats who sit in a district that Donald Trump won last year. The district did, however, was the rare constituency that moved to the left in 2024, albeit only slightly, while the congresswoman ran ahead of the ticket by beating Kent 52-48.

WI-01

Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse who worked at a Veterans Affairs hospital for a decade, has joined the race for southeastern Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District.

Berman's entry makes him the second notable Democrat seeking to take on Republican Rep. Bryan Steil after iron worker Randy Bryce, who lost to Steil in 2018 and announced he'd seek a rematch in May.

In an introductory video, Berman attacked Steil for not "looking out for families like mine."

"He spent his career shipping jobs overseas and serving his billionaire donors," says the new candidate. "I've spent mine helping people."

Donald Trump carried the 1st District by a 52-47 margin last year, while Steil won a fourth term by a wider 54-44 spread.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

A new poll from Siena University finds Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani easily defeating his many rivals in the November election for mayor of New York City.

Mamdani holds a 44-25 lead on Andrew Cuomo, the rival he vanquished in the Democratic primary, while Republican Curtis Sliwa sits at 12% and Mayor Eric Adams is a distant fourth with just 7% of the vote. Mamdani is also the only candidate among the four with a positive favorability rating, at 46-34, while the rest are all underwater by double digits.

In our last Digest, we incorrectly said that Philadelphia last elected a Republican district attorney in 1985 when Ron Castille won his only term. Castille won his first term in 1985 and won reelection in 1989.