Yeah. I'll take these on balance given that Siena has been a couple points right of the averages since late 2023 (possibly overcompensation but of course we don't know). Even if they're exactly on, we're at 270.
Trump +6 in Ohio is consistent with Harris +4 in Pennsylvania which their other poll found. For whatever reason NYT seems to be getting results comparable to other polls in the northern states but better for Trump nationally and in the sunbelt states.
If the poll is right, Mr. Moreno will need more than undecided Trump voters to break his way. Mr. Brown would still lead by two points, 50-48, if voters who are currently undecided in the Senate race chose the candidate who aligns with
the party of their presidential vote choice. Instead, Mr. Brown leads because he has the support of 10 percent of Mr. Trump's backers. To win, Mr. Moreno will need to pull some of that support back.
Undecided Trump voters going their way to Moreno would have to do so for a good reason.
It's not crystal clear what exactly Moreno has to offer for them. Sure, JD Vance could campaign for him, but it might not make a difference for the undecided voters.
I'm seeing a consistent pattern of Harris doing worse than our senate candidates across multiple polls. It's hard to imagine we'll see this level of consistent senate overperformance across the board will carry through to election day.
Either Harris will improve, senate dems will do worse, or a bit of both as they meet closer to the middle. Although they're only stating the senate margins in this specific poll, so it could come down to greater undecideds in one election but not the other.
Lake explains Gallego. She's toxic af and a proven lover. Rosen is an incumbent, and has been in Congress for 8 years. While not a multi term incumbent, she is definitely an incumbent with incumbent's advantage.
But again, is Lake more toxic than Trump? How does one reconcile being okay with Trump but finding Lake to be a bridge too far? In less polarizing times, I'd be more convinced by Rosen's apparent firm grasp on Nevada as sometimes first-term Senators are given an unusual amount of bipartisan grace when running for their second term, but why is her standing so much stronger than Catherine Cortez Masto's standing was two years ago when her political resume was so similar?
I think a lot of it may just be that people reject Lake because she sounds unhinged, but are willing to ignore when Trump acts just as bad because they've already voted for him at least once and don't want to admit to themselves that they were wrong about him or (worse) got played by him.
This. These are right-leaning swing voters who internalized being part of the tribe of Trump voters, and having held their nose to do it are defiantly standing by their choice. Lake is just another crazy Republican, they aren't invested.
IтАЩve said this before, but the fact sheтАЩs a woman I think creates an added electoral penalty to already being тАЬcrazy, extremeтАЭ etc.
Also, Adam Laxalt was a former statewide elected Republican in Nevada, so we shouldnтАЩt have been surprised he put up such a tough challenge. He was mostly considered a тАЬnormalтАЭ Republican, which we all know swing voters LOVE to vote for. Sam Brown is a much weaker opponent, heтАЩs never won a race before.
Pretty much every тАЬTrump, but not TrumpтАЭ candidate has crashed and burned and Trump himself has only won 1 election with 46% of the vote, so heтАЩs not exactly an electoral powerhouse either. So Lake flaming out trying to do that isnтАЩt surprising.
TLDR: NV-Sen 2024 is not the same race as NV-Sen 2022. ThatтАЩs why thereтАЩs a difference.
No. I haven't understood this dynamic either. Laxalt is not just every bit, even more, right wing than Brown, but he's an utterly toxic asshole widely reviled by entire swaths of his own state's Republican party apparatus and activists. Cortez Masto had won twice, easily as Attorney General and won the race to succeed Reid by outrunning Hillary to boot. She was a very well-established politician, more so than Rosen, and politically there is little difference between the two. Why did she have the race of her life that winning by less than 1% was considered upset win and Rosen is running away with hers?
The difference is that the GOP agenda and Project 25 have unfolded to be more right wing than even back in 2022.
The 2022 midterms were just a few months from the Dobbs decision. It certainly impacted that election but itтАЩs become an even bigger liability to the GOP these days than it used to be.
Rosen is also not considered a vulnerable Senator.
Worse overall election climate. Lingering pandemic fallout. We LOST 3 statewide races in NV in 2022. Laxalt was a recent statewide elected, Brown has never held office. Brown lost the primary to Laxalt 56-34 in 2022.
Brown is more vocal whereas Laxalt was more reserved in the NV-SEN race back in 2022 in his approach regarding abortion.
Also, polling was closer in that race than it is now. As far as I recall, Catherine Cortez-Masto was considered a more vulnerable Democratic Senator.
I think Democrats since 2022 have become better at messaging than they used to be regarding the abortion issue. It also helps that Harris, a woman POTUS candidate, is running, as it can empower more women to turnout in high numbers.
ItтАЩs an interesting dichotomy. I think most would agree here that the only way to hold the Senate is with over performance on the Senate level in at least two of OH, MT, TX, FL (and with latest data, maybe even NE and MO). But at the same time too much of an over performance by Sen candidates would give Trump the presidency. Does anyone really see a Republican president with a Dem Senate and House? I certainly donтАЩt but based on some of the polling numbers it seems possible.
The NYT/Siena poll is credible enough that I am not going to dismiss the idea that they have done a better job of ascertaining what the electorate will look like than everyone else. And if the electorate that they think will show up does, Trump probably wins. That said, they are very consistently producing more Trump-friendly numbers than other pollsters. I think their recent Sun Belt numbers were better for Trump than Trafalgar's most recent numbers in those states.
NEW Siena/NYT Poll: Michigan: Harris 48: Trump 47; Slotkin by 5 over Rogers;
Wisconsin: Harris 49: Trump 47; Baldwin by 7 over Hovde;
Ohio: Trump 50: Harris 44; Brown by 4 over Moreno
Nebraska 02: Harris 52: Trump 43
https://scri.siena.edu
Those Ohio numbers are really good.
Yeah. I'll take these on balance given that Siena has been a couple points right of the averages since late 2023 (possibly overcompensation but of course we don't know). Even if they're exactly on, we're at 270.
They seem like outliers in comparison to Siena's numbers for other states this time.
Trump +6 in Ohio is consistent with Harris +4 in Pennsylvania which their other poll found. For whatever reason NYT seems to be getting results comparable to other polls in the northern states but better for Trump nationally and in the sunbelt states.
From the article:
If the poll is right, Mr. Moreno will need more than undecided Trump voters to break his way. Mr. Brown would still lead by two points, 50-48, if voters who are currently undecided in the Senate race chose the candidate who aligns with
the party of their presidential vote choice. Instead, Mr. Brown leads because he has the support of 10 percent of Mr. Trump's backers. To win, Mr. Moreno will need to pull some of that support back.
Undecided Trump voters going their way to Moreno would have to do so for a good reason.
It's not crystal clear what exactly Moreno has to offer for them. Sure, JD Vance could campaign for him, but it might not make a difference for the undecided voters.
The good reason being that they're bigoted and support Republican extremists. That's really easy to imagine!
Yes but if Trump is on the ballot, such voters are likely to vote in higher numbers for him vs. Moreno.
Undervoting is common, regardless of party.
True.
Nice calculation and it gets Brown to 50.
I don't want to sound like I'm jumping the gun here but is it possible Harris may outperform Biden's numbers in OH this time around?
I think itтАЩs possible. Losing by 6 or 7 instead of 8.
That would be good!
I'm seeing a consistent pattern of Harris doing worse than our senate candidates across multiple polls. It's hard to imagine we'll see this level of consistent senate overperformance across the board will carry through to election day.
Either Harris will improve, senate dems will do worse, or a bit of both as they meet closer to the middle. Although they're only stating the senate margins in this specific poll, so it could come down to greater undecideds in one election but not the other.
Long term incumbents have long overperformed other candidates, especially for president.
Doesn't explain Gallego or Rosen though.
Lake explains Gallego. She's toxic af and a proven lover. Rosen is an incumbent, and has been in Congress for 8 years. While not a multi term incumbent, she is definitely an incumbent with incumbent's advantage.
But again, is Lake more toxic than Trump? How does one reconcile being okay with Trump but finding Lake to be a bridge too far? In less polarizing times, I'd be more convinced by Rosen's apparent firm grasp on Nevada as sometimes first-term Senators are given an unusual amount of bipartisan grace when running for their second term, but why is her standing so much stronger than Catherine Cortez Masto's standing was two years ago when her political resume was so similar?
I think a lot of it may just be that people reject Lake because she sounds unhinged, but are willing to ignore when Trump acts just as bad because they've already voted for him at least once and don't want to admit to themselves that they were wrong about him or (worse) got played by him.
This. These are right-leaning swing voters who internalized being part of the tribe of Trump voters, and having held their nose to do it are defiantly standing by their choice. Lake is just another crazy Republican, they aren't invested.
IтАЩve said this before, but the fact sheтАЩs a woman I think creates an added electoral penalty to already being тАЬcrazy, extremeтАЭ etc.
Also, Adam Laxalt was a former statewide elected Republican in Nevada, so we shouldnтАЩt have been surprised he put up such a tough challenge. He was mostly considered a тАЬnormalтАЭ Republican, which we all know swing voters LOVE to vote for. Sam Brown is a much weaker opponent, heтАЩs never won a race before.
Pretty much every тАЬTrump, but not TrumpтАЭ candidate has crashed and burned and Trump himself has only won 1 election with 46% of the vote, so heтАЩs not exactly an electoral powerhouse either. So Lake flaming out trying to do that isnтАЩt surprising.
TLDR: NV-Sen 2024 is not the same race as NV-Sen 2022. ThatтАЩs why thereтАЩs a difference.
And Sam Brown is also a Senate candidate who is too right wing for NV because of his anti-choice views. It isn't just Rosen.
Is Brown further right than Adam Laxalt two years ago? Who kept the race so close?
No. I haven't understood this dynamic either. Laxalt is not just every bit, even more, right wing than Brown, but he's an utterly toxic asshole widely reviled by entire swaths of his own state's Republican party apparatus and activists. Cortez Masto had won twice, easily as Attorney General and won the race to succeed Reid by outrunning Hillary to boot. She was a very well-established politician, more so than Rosen, and politically there is little difference between the two. Why did she have the race of her life that winning by less than 1% was considered upset win and Rosen is running away with hers?
The difference is that the GOP agenda and Project 25 have unfolded to be more right wing than even back in 2022.
The 2022 midterms were just a few months from the Dobbs decision. It certainly impacted that election but itтАЩs become an even bigger liability to the GOP these days than it used to be.
Rosen is also not considered a vulnerable Senator.
Worse overall election climate. Lingering pandemic fallout. We LOST 3 statewide races in NV in 2022. Laxalt was a recent statewide elected, Brown has never held office. Brown lost the primary to Laxalt 56-34 in 2022.
Brown is more vocal whereas Laxalt was more reserved in the NV-SEN race back in 2022 in his approach regarding abortion.
Also, polling was closer in that race than it is now. As far as I recall, Catherine Cortez-Masto was considered a more vulnerable Democratic Senator.
I think Democrats since 2022 have become better at messaging than they used to be regarding the abortion issue. It also helps that Harris, a woman POTUS candidate, is running, as it can empower more women to turnout in high numbers.
ItтАЩs an interesting dichotomy. I think most would agree here that the only way to hold the Senate is with over performance on the Senate level in at least two of OH, MT, TX, FL (and with latest data, maybe even NE and MO). But at the same time too much of an over performance by Sen candidates would give Trump the presidency. Does anyone really see a Republican president with a Dem Senate and House? I certainly donтАЩt but based on some of the polling numbers it seems possible.
"Does anyone really see a Republican president with a Dem Senate and House?" No, I sure don't.
The same was true for Biden.
The incimbency thing explains some of it, an especially bad candidate (Lake) explains AZ.
And Trump will likely outperform a generic MAGA.
One interesting comment in the NYT live feed from Jonathan Swan is that these numbers track with Trump's internals.
Also second poll this week to have Vargas ahead in NE 2
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/house/general/2024/nebraska/district-02/bacon-vs-vargas
The NYT/Siena poll is credible enough that I am not going to dismiss the idea that they have done a better job of ascertaining what the electorate will look like than everyone else. And if the electorate that they think will show up does, Trump probably wins. That said, they are very consistently producing more Trump-friendly numbers than other pollsters. I think their recent Sun Belt numbers were better for Trump than Trafalgar's most recent numbers in those states.