Yeah. I'll take these on balance given that Siena has been a couple points right of the averages since late 2023 (possibly overcompensation but of course we don't know). Even if they're exactly on, we're at 270.
Trump +6 in Ohio is consistent with Harris +4 in Pennsylvania which their other poll found. For whatever reason NYT seems to be getting results comparable to other polls in the northern states but better for Trump nationally and in the sunbelt states.
If the poll is right, Mr. Moreno will need more than undecided Trump voters to break his way. Mr. Brown would still lead by two points, 50-48, if voters who are currently undecided in the Senate race chose the candidate who aligns with
the party of their presidential vote choice. Instead, Mr. Brown leads because he has the support of 10 percent of Mr. Trump's backers. To win, Mr. Moreno will need to pull some of that support back.
Undecided Trump voters going their way to Moreno would have to do so for a good reason.
It's not crystal clear what exactly Moreno has to offer for them. Sure, JD Vance could campaign for him, but it might not make a difference for the undecided voters.
Those Ohio numbers are really good.
Yeah. I'll take these on balance given that Siena has been a couple points right of the averages since late 2023 (possibly overcompensation but of course we don't know). Even if they're exactly on, we're at 270.
They seem like outliers in comparison to Siena's numbers for other states this time.
Trump +6 in Ohio is consistent with Harris +4 in Pennsylvania which their other poll found. For whatever reason NYT seems to be getting results comparable to other polls in the northern states but better for Trump nationally and in the sunbelt states.
From the article:
If the poll is right, Mr. Moreno will need more than undecided Trump voters to break his way. Mr. Brown would still lead by two points, 50-48, if voters who are currently undecided in the Senate race chose the candidate who aligns with
the party of their presidential vote choice. Instead, Mr. Brown leads because he has the support of 10 percent of Mr. Trump's backers. To win, Mr. Moreno will need to pull some of that support back.
Undecided Trump voters going their way to Moreno would have to do so for a good reason.
It's not crystal clear what exactly Moreno has to offer for them. Sure, JD Vance could campaign for him, but it might not make a difference for the undecided voters.
The good reason being that they're bigoted and support Republican extremists. That's really easy to imagine!
Yes but if Trump is on the ballot, such voters are likely to vote in higher numbers for him vs. Moreno.
Undervoting is common, regardless of party.
True.
Nice calculation and it gets Brown to 50.
I don't want to sound like I'm jumping the gun here but is it possible Harris may outperform Biden's numbers in OH this time around?
I think itтАЩs possible. Losing by 6 or 7 instead of 8.
That would be good!