The NYT/Siena poll is credible enough that I am not going to dismiss the idea that they have done a better job of ascertaining what the electorate will look like than everyone else. And if the electorate that they think will show up does, Trump probably wins. That said, they are very consistently producing more Trump-friendly numbers tha…
The NYT/Siena poll is credible enough that I am not going to dismiss the idea that they have done a better job of ascertaining what the electorate will look like than everyone else. And if the electorate that they think will show up does, Trump probably wins. That said, they are very consistently producing more Trump-friendly numbers than other pollsters. I think their recent Sun Belt numbers were better for Trump than Trafalgar's most recent numbers in those states.
The NYT/Siena poll is credible enough that I am not going to dismiss the idea that they have done a better job of ascertaining what the electorate will look like than everyone else. And if the electorate that they think will show up does, Trump probably wins. That said, they are very consistently producing more Trump-friendly numbers than other pollsters. I think their recent Sun Belt numbers were better for Trump than Trafalgar's most recent numbers in those states.