Lake explains Gallego. She's toxic af and a proven lover. Rosen is an incumbent, and has been in Congress for 8 years. While not a multi term incumbent, she is definitely an incumbent with incumbent's advantage.
But again, is Lake more toxic than Trump? How does one reconcile being okay with Trump but finding Lake to be a bridge too far? In less polarizing times, I'd be more convinced by Rosen's apparent firm grasp on Nevada as sometimes first-term Senators are given an unusual amount of bipartisan grace when running for their second term, but why is her standing so much stronger than Catherine Cortez Masto's standing was two years ago when her political resume was so similar?
I think a lot of it may just be that people reject Lake because she sounds unhinged, but are willing to ignore when Trump acts just as bad because they've already voted for him at least once and don't want to admit to themselves that they were wrong about him or (worse) got played by him.
This. These are right-leaning swing voters who internalized being part of the tribe of Trump voters, and having held their nose to do it are defiantly standing by their choice. Lake is just another crazy Republican, they aren't invested.
IтАЩve said this before, but the fact sheтАЩs a woman I think creates an added electoral penalty to already being тАЬcrazy, extremeтАЭ etc.
Also, Adam Laxalt was a former statewide elected Republican in Nevada, so we shouldnтАЩt have been surprised he put up such a tough challenge. He was mostly considered a тАЬnormalтАЭ Republican, which we all know swing voters LOVE to vote for. Sam Brown is a much weaker opponent, heтАЩs never won a race before.
Pretty much every тАЬTrump, but not TrumpтАЭ candidate has crashed and burned and Trump himself has only won 1 election with 46% of the vote, so heтАЩs not exactly an electoral powerhouse either. So Lake flaming out trying to do that isnтАЩt surprising.
TLDR: NV-Sen 2024 is not the same race as NV-Sen 2022. ThatтАЩs why thereтАЩs a difference.
No. I haven't understood this dynamic either. Laxalt is not just every bit, even more, right wing than Brown, but he's an utterly toxic asshole widely reviled by entire swaths of his own state's Republican party apparatus and activists. Cortez Masto had won twice, easily as Attorney General and won the race to succeed Reid by outrunning Hillary to boot. She was a very well-established politician, more so than Rosen, and politically there is little difference between the two. Why did she have the race of her life that winning by less than 1% was considered upset win and Rosen is running away with hers?
The difference is that the GOP agenda and Project 25 have unfolded to be more right wing than even back in 2022.
The 2022 midterms were just a few months from the Dobbs decision. It certainly impacted that election but itтАЩs become an even bigger liability to the GOP these days than it used to be.
Rosen is also not considered a vulnerable Senator.
Worse overall election climate. Lingering pandemic fallout. We LOST 3 statewide races in NV in 2022. Laxalt was a recent statewide elected, Brown has never held office. Brown lost the primary to Laxalt 56-34 in 2022.
Brown is more vocal whereas Laxalt was more reserved in the NV-SEN race back in 2022 in his approach regarding abortion.
Also, polling was closer in that race than it is now. As far as I recall, Catherine Cortez-Masto was considered a more vulnerable Democratic Senator.
I think Democrats since 2022 have become better at messaging than they used to be regarding the abortion issue. It also helps that Harris, a woman POTUS candidate, is running, as it can empower more women to turnout in high numbers.
Doesn't explain Gallego or Rosen though.
Lake explains Gallego. She's toxic af and a proven lover. Rosen is an incumbent, and has been in Congress for 8 years. While not a multi term incumbent, she is definitely an incumbent with incumbent's advantage.
But again, is Lake more toxic than Trump? How does one reconcile being okay with Trump but finding Lake to be a bridge too far? In less polarizing times, I'd be more convinced by Rosen's apparent firm grasp on Nevada as sometimes first-term Senators are given an unusual amount of bipartisan grace when running for their second term, but why is her standing so much stronger than Catherine Cortez Masto's standing was two years ago when her political resume was so similar?
I think a lot of it may just be that people reject Lake because she sounds unhinged, but are willing to ignore when Trump acts just as bad because they've already voted for him at least once and don't want to admit to themselves that they were wrong about him or (worse) got played by him.
This. These are right-leaning swing voters who internalized being part of the tribe of Trump voters, and having held their nose to do it are defiantly standing by their choice. Lake is just another crazy Republican, they aren't invested.
IтАЩve said this before, but the fact sheтАЩs a woman I think creates an added electoral penalty to already being тАЬcrazy, extremeтАЭ etc.
Also, Adam Laxalt was a former statewide elected Republican in Nevada, so we shouldnтАЩt have been surprised he put up such a tough challenge. He was mostly considered a тАЬnormalтАЭ Republican, which we all know swing voters LOVE to vote for. Sam Brown is a much weaker opponent, heтАЩs never won a race before.
Pretty much every тАЬTrump, but not TrumpтАЭ candidate has crashed and burned and Trump himself has only won 1 election with 46% of the vote, so heтАЩs not exactly an electoral powerhouse either. So Lake flaming out trying to do that isnтАЩt surprising.
TLDR: NV-Sen 2024 is not the same race as NV-Sen 2022. ThatтАЩs why thereтАЩs a difference.
And Sam Brown is also a Senate candidate who is too right wing for NV because of his anti-choice views. It isn't just Rosen.
Is Brown further right than Adam Laxalt two years ago? Who kept the race so close?
No. I haven't understood this dynamic either. Laxalt is not just every bit, even more, right wing than Brown, but he's an utterly toxic asshole widely reviled by entire swaths of his own state's Republican party apparatus and activists. Cortez Masto had won twice, easily as Attorney General and won the race to succeed Reid by outrunning Hillary to boot. She was a very well-established politician, more so than Rosen, and politically there is little difference between the two. Why did she have the race of her life that winning by less than 1% was considered upset win and Rosen is running away with hers?
The difference is that the GOP agenda and Project 25 have unfolded to be more right wing than even back in 2022.
The 2022 midterms were just a few months from the Dobbs decision. It certainly impacted that election but itтАЩs become an even bigger liability to the GOP these days than it used to be.
Rosen is also not considered a vulnerable Senator.
Worse overall election climate. Lingering pandemic fallout. We LOST 3 statewide races in NV in 2022. Laxalt was a recent statewide elected, Brown has never held office. Brown lost the primary to Laxalt 56-34 in 2022.
Brown is more vocal whereas Laxalt was more reserved in the NV-SEN race back in 2022 in his approach regarding abortion.
Also, polling was closer in that race than it is now. As far as I recall, Catherine Cortez-Masto was considered a more vulnerable Democratic Senator.
I think Democrats since 2022 have become better at messaging than they used to be regarding the abortion issue. It also helps that Harris, a woman POTUS candidate, is running, as it can empower more women to turnout in high numbers.