I think the Jewish space lasers and chem trails woman to her disadvantage will definitely try to use antisemitic tropes like his 2020 senate opponent did.
Unless there is a total economic meltdown, and Trump successfully blames it on "Jewish bankers" and "the globalist Jewish cabal", I think MTG’s antisemitic tropes are going to boomerang right back at her.
Anyone interested in how Australian Labor achieved its overwhelming election victory? Here is a terrific article on the strategist and strategy behind Anthony Albanese and Labor’s wildly successful campaign.
I read on another forum too that the Coalition fired their longtime pollster because he told them Dutton going scorched earth on the Voice Referendum was unhelpful (in part since it was already going to lose, and lose badly) and then agreed to do polling for the Yes campaign afterwards. Their new pollster mostly just told Dutton what he wanted to hear and wouldn’t poll marginal districts (including Dutton’s!) for fear of “revealing” that the Coalition suspected they were in play
Sore loser Jefferson Griffin finally conceded his election challenge against incumbent NC Supreme Court justice Allison Riggs, following Myers’ ruling. He won’t be appealing the ruling further.
Unfortunately, in NC all the justices in our state system are elected. The only time a governor can appoint justices is if they resign, retire or die.
Not only have Republicans made judicial races openly partisan, but they also recently overrode outgoing Governor Cooper's veto on a law forcing the governor to appoint replacement justices of the same party as outgoing justices (like a day or two before their supermajority went sayonara). Meaning that if one of the GOP justices on the SCONC were to die or retire, Gov Stein can't replace fill the vacancy with one of his choosing. He has to choose from three candidates picked by the NC GOP.
If the control of SCONC flips back to Dem control in 2028, redraws the maps and Dems recapture the state legislature -- there needs to be MASSIVE overhaul during that trifecta. I hope Phil Berger is still around to get demoted to minority leader and see everything he and Tim Moore forced through get gutted and undone.
Riggs and Earls have said outright that if the court switches back after 2028, they will revisit the gerrymandered state and Congressional maps.
And the only way to get an independent redistricting commission here in NC if it's a law passed by lawmakers or legislatively referred constitutional amendment (which has to pass by 60% in both houses before going to voters). Since Rs have that gerrymandered majority, they won't do it. They'll have to be forced by court order to redraw the maps.
That just sounds like chaos to me. At least in my experience, judicial races in NY are extremely boring and I never really hear about Republican judges making insane rulings, in part because everyone knows the Governor's race is really where statewide judicial politics is litigated.
To put it another way, judicial elections shouldn't be about making policy, which is what these high court elections in various states seem to be now.
NC GOP is power hungry as can be and chaos is what they do and LOVE. They do EVERYTHING possible to entrench their power. They got rid of straight party voting because it benefits Democrats, they got rid of a three-day grace period for absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day to be counted.
And what's really egregious is that they took away the governor's power to appoint members of the NCSBE and gave it to the state auditor (a Republican). And that was after being rejected by federal judges AND voters over years of court battles. That auditor has now appointed three Republicans (with Phil Berger's approval), kept two Democrats and got rid of election director Karen Brinson Bell -- a holdover from Cooper/Stein.
The Court of Appeals did make some bad rulings, but no, nothing insane. Cuomo was essentially a moderate Republican, and even Pataki was not an extremist, so there would be little reason for the New York Court of Appeals to make an insane ruling.
I don't think it really makes sense to elect any judges. They should ideally be nominated by a panel of experts and confirmed or rejected by a vote of the Legislature.
I know Alaskans love Alaska but saving the nation, the Supreme Court and the Senate is more important ATM. I really really hope that former Rep. Peltola runs for Senate. If we win Maine, North Carolina, Texas and Alaska, it would be enough to stop Alito and Thomas from retiring. I bet they won't bow down to the pressure from Nov 2026 to Jan 2027.
If Republicans badly lose only the House but not the Senate in the midterms, I am confident that they'll put a lot of pressure on Alito and Thomas to retire.
Better yet, divine intervention in the form of old age and ill health may well retire Alito and Thomas. I would love to see Trump unable to fill these two SCOTUS seats, shifting the balance of the court for his last two years – and then have the next Democratic President name their replacements!
Dems would have to not only win the Senate but also find the courage to play hardball and defy the Constitution in order to fight fire with fire. However, since McConnell set the precedent and went first, which Dems would never have done themselves, I'm fairly confident even traditionalist Dems will refuse to fill Supreme Court seats with nominees from Republican presidents.
Schumer could give him a list of Biden nominees and refuse any Federalist Society picks from the WH. Play hardball and say "you can pick these judges or we won't confirm ANYONE."
Pick one of these judges or – true to the tradition established by Mitch McConnell – we won’t even give your nominee a hearing. (Except, perhaps, to eviscerate them and highlight how they’re unqualified, before rejecting them.)
I agree on what dems should do in that scenario. I am far less confident in Schumer's actually committing to it. Refusing to commit to long fights that go against political tradition is a habit he's making...
There's nothing in the constitution that requires the Senate to approve any nominees, and on the contrary, the Founding Fathers expected each branch of government to jealously guard its power, which Congress hasn't been doing under a trifecta.
Jon Ossoff's statement that: "I don't think that she's got the guts to do it" was not expressing doubt about Marjorie Taylor Greene's intention to run against him. He was taunting her into doing it. Ossoff knows that Greene would surely get Trump's endorsement, and the result would be even more disastrous for the GOP than the Herschel Walker debacle.
He's clearly baiting her. She would take the R Gubernatorial nominee, other statewide nominees and the legislature down with her just like the "Black Nazi" from North Carolina.
I think Ossoff is loosening up after Brian Kemp declining to run in the Senate election and realizing he has more flexibility in his re-election campaign than he did when he was a candidate back in 2020.
So who do y'all think is the favorite in Illinois senate? Krishnamoorthi, Kelly and Stratton are in and i guess we're waiting on Underwood? Priztker and Duckworth are behind Stratton but i'm not sure how much pull they have nor how well known she is.
I think Stratton is currently the favorite because of those two endorsements and the fact that Pritzker said he'll help fund her campaign. I'd put Krishnamoorthi second for his own impressive fundraising ability and his Obama creds. This kinda puts Kelly as third, which is no shade, I think she's wonderful, but the two above are definitely gonna put up a fight. Though Kelly's arguably overcome even more daunting odds, so I wouldn't be surprised if she surges to a top spot.
For what it's worth, Robin Kelly will be 70 years old when the next Congress is sworn in. Stratton will be 60, and Krisnamoorthi will be 52. 70 seems a bit old to start a Senate career, especially with age becoming more of a focus after all the recent deaths and health issues among older Democratic members. Dem voters are eager for generational change, and I'm not sure replacing an 80-year-old with a 70-year-old achieves that.
Minnesota secretary of state Steve Simon is running in Minnesota senate. It's good to see competition and not just coronations. I feel like lately races are just one candidate clearing out the field, let's give voters a choice.
There is no coronation happening in MN, with or without Simon. We have the Lt. Governor (Flanagan), a prominent House member (Craig), and a former leader of the Senate Dems (Franzen) already running, any of which could win the primary.
Chris Pappas is, however, being coronated in New Hampshire, but that's not because of anything other than (a) he's the strongest candidate and everyone knows it, and (b) the bench is thin in NH these days. Knowing who your nominee is going to be early in the process (i.e. by coronation) isn't always bad, as it allows the candidate to focus on the general election. That's especially helpful in NH, with it's really late primaries.
NH also really likes our incumbents. If Sununu had narrowly lost in 2016 instead of narrowly won, I'd expect the governor right now would be a democrat of some kind. Once someone becomes an incumbent here they're likely to survive even wave years.
Lynch won in 2010 by 7 points. Hassan won in 2014 by 5 points. Sununu won in 2018 by 7 points. NH governors (generally) quickly become popular and hard to unseat, even with waves. The rest of the state basically follows the legislative gerrymanders that the 2010 (veto proof republican majority that year) and 2020 elections gave republicans the ability to create.
Frankly, I think Sununu declining to run for the Senate, like Kemp in GA, was a smart move. If you're looking to remain relevant in the GOP, running for federal office in a state like NH might not be the best option right now in light of Trump and his administration.
Senators like Chuck Grassley are being hounded at town halls by constituents over DOGE and what's going on in the Trump administration. Sununu wouldn't be able to handle the heat like this as a Senate candidate.
Yeah but being that the GOP hasn't won a NH at the presidential level since 2000, whatever the NH GOP has at the state level doesn't translate at the federal level.
And there, we've already got at least three credible candidates (Flanagan, Craig, and ex-State Sen. Minority Leader Melissa Franzen), with possibly more to follow.
Again, I don't see a coronation in MN when there are multiple competitive candidates running against each other. Flanagan and Craig especially will probably have to fight each other hard for the nomination. You might have a point if Craig had stayed out and Flanagan was the only major nominee...
You definitely implied it would be a coronation without Simon running, which he is not. Presumably you meant Flanagan was being coronated, even though Craig and Franzen are also running? Then you said your "point still stands," which I took to mean you still think your point about MN is valid. Maybe your "point still stands" was about coronations in general, because I don't see a point still standing about MN.
After the new GOP majority on the NCSBE was sworn in this morning, they promptly fired elections director Karen Brinson Bell. Now they're spouting veiled election integrity BS, even though Brinson and the formerly Dem majority on the NCSBE unanimously certified Trump's wins in 2020 and 2024.
I hope this backfires on the NC GOP in the following years. And Boliek is going to be a top target in 2028 -- and if he loses, Dems gain back the majority on NCSBE.
Tillis won by the skin of his teeth in 2014 and 2020 in R-favorable years. With the right Dem candidate and political winds, Tillis can kiss his seat goodbye next year.
He is not invincible. And if NC voters are fed up enough, Tillis won't lose by a small amount of votes (and try to pull a Jefferson Griffin). It'll be by a number big enough that Boliek and the GOP-majority NCSBE can't contest either.
Yeah. NC GOP made Bell a punching bag for years -- all for doing her freaking job WELL. She requested to make a short speech at the NCSBE today, but they refused and promptly ended the meeting.
The way they treated her is appalling. And so, Democrats need to do the same with Francis De Luca.
In the same article about John Bel Edwards, it says
Mr. Schumer has told associates that he sees an intriguing opportunity in Mississippi, which has the largest percentage of Black residents of any state. One possible candidate there is Scott Colom, a district attorney who was appointed by President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to a federal judgeship — only to be blocked by Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, whom Mr. Colom would be running against in 2026. The state is also appealing for Democrats because it is small and relatively cheap to compete in.
Let's see the maths: (from Wikipedia)
White Americans: 55.4
Black Americans: 36.4
Latinos: 3.6
Asians: 1.1
Native: 0.5
Around 16% of the African American voting age population is disenfranchised, let's assume that in contrast 8 percent of the rest of the population is disenfranchised (and the Mississippi delta suffers from systemic poverty).
So assuming 90 percent of Black people vote for Democrats and taking into account the disenfranchisement, you get ≈ 30 percent of the vote.
Would we be able to get another 20 percent of the vote that too in Mississippi? Maybe it's a loser's game or maybe running a pro life candidate with the midterm electorate differences may make it possible.
We win 30% of the white vote in Georgia.
Note: The largest shifts in Trump's approval have been seen in non-white voters.
It's worth a half court shot because if Cassidy manages to win a bloody primary, there're potential for a lot of R voter drop-off. I don't think it'd be enough, but if it's a blue tsunami environment, it's worth a go for at least money diversion purposes.
Running as a Independent in the South makes you lose Black voters who may be very socially conservative but are extremely loyal to Democrats according to a Split ticket Analysis. So that's out of the equation.
Good post. If 2 candidates have a tied vote for 2nd place, they really have a 3-person runoff instead of doing some kind of coin flip or something? Same if there are 2 candidates tied for 1st?
I see that Raffensperger did poorly in one opinion poll, but now that Governor Kemp has stated he won't run for the Senate, I'd have to believe that Raffensperger, with his record of resistance to Trump while otherwise supporting him, would be the strongest candidate if he were to run and win a Republican primary. Do any of you disagree?
Like Kemp, It's almost impossible for Raffensberger to win a Primary ( indeed, I think part of the reason Kemp didn't run was because he had internal polling showing that he would lose in the Republican Primary).
I don't think so, media reports said that Kemp simply didn't want to serve in the Senate and didn't see any allure in it. He's going to remain involved in the 2026 state elections and maybe try a run in 2028. He is a very popular Georgia Republican.
I’m curious, is Gabriel Sterling a credible Republican candidate, if not for Senate then perhaps for some state-level office? I know little about his politics, but he does seem very personable. And to his credit, he ran perhaps the best official state election cycle in the country.
Raffensperger barely avoided a runoff in 2022 on the back of Democrats crossing over to vote for him since both Warnock and Abrams were uncontested. He won’t get that luxury in 2026 because the gubernatorial primary will be wide open.
Also I think most Democrats knew the GOP would hold the SOS seat in 2022. It’s a very different ballgame when there’s an incumbent Democrat to defend.
It is under settings in your profile.
If you knew that off the top of your head, then I'm picking you for my next Trivial Pursuit partner
Please, oh please! I would gladly donate $5 to MTG’s campaign if she promises to run.
The only reason to do that would be to ensure her victory in the Republican primary.
I will send $1.49
I will check with my accountant to see if I can afford it!
I think the Jewish space lasers and chem trails woman to her disadvantage will definitely try to use antisemitic tropes like his 2020 senate opponent did.
Unless there is a total economic meltdown, and Trump successfully blames it on "Jewish bankers" and "the globalist Jewish cabal", I think MTG’s antisemitic tropes are going to boomerang right back at her.
Anyone interested in how Australian Labor achieved its overwhelming election victory? Here is a terrific article on the strategist and strategy behind Anthony Albanese and Labor’s wildly successful campaign.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/06/paul-erickson-labor-party-strategist-profile
I read on another forum too that the Coalition fired their longtime pollster because he told them Dutton going scorched earth on the Voice Referendum was unhelpful (in part since it was already going to lose, and lose badly) and then agreed to do polling for the Yes campaign afterwards. Their new pollster mostly just told Dutton what he wanted to hear and wouldn’t poll marginal districts (including Dutton’s!) for fear of “revealing” that the Coalition suspected they were in play
Sore loser Jefferson Griffin finally conceded his election challenge against incumbent NC Supreme Court justice Allison Riggs, following Myers’ ruling. He won’t be appealing the ruling further.
https://www.wral.com/story/republican-concedes-long-unsettled-north-carolina-court-election-to-democratic-incumbent/21996287/
In NY the highest court is appointed, the "district" courts are elected. Which makes a lot more sense to me.
Unfortunately, in NC all the justices in our state system are elected. The only time a governor can appoint justices is if they resign, retire or die.
Not only have Republicans made judicial races openly partisan, but they also recently overrode outgoing Governor Cooper's veto on a law forcing the governor to appoint replacement justices of the same party as outgoing justices (like a day or two before their supermajority went sayonara). Meaning that if one of the GOP justices on the SCONC were to die or retire, Gov Stein can't replace fill the vacancy with one of his choosing. He has to choose from three candidates picked by the NC GOP.
If the control of SCONC flips back to Dem control in 2028, redraws the maps and Dems recapture the state legislature -- there needs to be MASSIVE overhaul during that trifecta. I hope Phil Berger is still around to get demoted to minority leader and see everything he and Tim Moore forced through get gutted and undone.
The overhaul should include independent redistricting for sure. We can’t have another 2010-2011 situation.
Riggs and Earls have said outright that if the court switches back after 2028, they will revisit the gerrymandered state and Congressional maps.
And the only way to get an independent redistricting commission here in NC if it's a law passed by lawmakers or legislatively referred constitutional amendment (which has to pass by 60% in both houses before going to voters). Since Rs have that gerrymandered majority, they won't do it. They'll have to be forced by court order to redraw the maps.
That just sounds like chaos to me. At least in my experience, judicial races in NY are extremely boring and I never really hear about Republican judges making insane rulings, in part because everyone knows the Governor's race is really where statewide judicial politics is litigated.
To put it another way, judicial elections shouldn't be about making policy, which is what these high court elections in various states seem to be now.
NC GOP is power hungry as can be and chaos is what they do and LOVE. They do EVERYTHING possible to entrench their power. They got rid of straight party voting because it benefits Democrats, they got rid of a three-day grace period for absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day to be counted.
And what's really egregious is that they took away the governor's power to appoint members of the NCSBE and gave it to the state auditor (a Republican). And that was after being rejected by federal judges AND voters over years of court battles. That auditor has now appointed three Republicans (with Phil Berger's approval), kept two Democrats and got rid of election director Karen Brinson Bell -- a holdover from Cooper/Stein.
Because I assume not everyone will know what the NCSBE is, as I didn't: https://www.ncsbe.gov/ North Carolina State Board of Elections.
The Court of Appeals did make some bad rulings, but no, nothing insane. Cuomo was essentially a moderate Republican, and even Pataki was not an extremist, so there would be little reason for the New York Court of Appeals to make an insane ruling.
I don't think it really makes sense to elect any judges. They should ideally be nominated by a panel of experts and confirmed or rejected by a vote of the Legislature.
I know Alaskans love Alaska but saving the nation, the Supreme Court and the Senate is more important ATM. I really really hope that former Rep. Peltola runs for Senate. If we win Maine, North Carolina, Texas and Alaska, it would be enough to stop Alito and Thomas from retiring. I bet they won't bow down to the pressure from Nov 2026 to Jan 2027.
I think Alito and Thomas enjoy the perks and power far too much to ever retire, even if it means risking handing their seats to liberals.
If Republicans badly lose only the House but not the Senate in the midterms, I am confident that they'll put a lot of pressure on Alito and Thomas to retire.
Better yet, divine intervention in the form of old age and ill health may well retire Alito and Thomas. I would love to see Trump unable to fill these two SCOTUS seats, shifting the balance of the court for his last two years – and then have the next Democratic President name their replacements!
Dems would have to not only win the Senate but also find the courage to play hardball and defy the Constitution in order to fight fire with fire. However, since McConnell set the precedent and went first, which Dems would never have done themselves, I'm fairly confident even traditionalist Dems will refuse to fill Supreme Court seats with nominees from Republican presidents.
Schumer could give him a list of Biden nominees and refuse any Federalist Society picks from the WH. Play hardball and say "you can pick these judges or we won't confirm ANYONE."
Pick one of these judges or – true to the tradition established by Mitch McConnell – we won’t even give your nominee a hearing. (Except, perhaps, to eviscerate them and highlight how they’re unqualified, before rejecting them.)
I agree on what dems should do in that scenario. I am far less confident in Schumer's actually committing to it. Refusing to commit to long fights that go against political tradition is a habit he's making...
There's nothing in the constitution that requires the Senate to approve any nominees, and on the contrary, the Founding Fathers expected each branch of government to jealously guard its power, which Congress hasn't been doing under a trifecta.
Peltola's preference for the governorship over the Senate is understandable. Commuting between D.C. and Anchorage is utterly exhausting.
I suspect that it is also an easier race to win and it would keep her politically relevant for a future senate race.
Have we got any good candidates in Alaska for whatever race Peltola does not run in?
What a great post!
Griffin gives up Riggs wins Its finally over https://x.com/Taniel/status/1920130317358125388
Jon Ossoff's statement that: "I don't think that she's got the guts to do it" was not expressing doubt about Marjorie Taylor Greene's intention to run against him. He was taunting her into doing it. Ossoff knows that Greene would surely get Trump's endorsement, and the result would be even more disastrous for the GOP than the Herschel Walker debacle.
He's clearly baiting her. She would take the R Gubernatorial nominee, other statewide nominees and the legislature down with her just like the "Black Nazi" from North Carolina.
That would be a HOOT. MTG running for governor would almost certainly flip the governor's seat blue and possibly the state legislature.
Not to mention the down ballot statewide offices.
"Almost certainly" seems a bit strong, but yeah it would definitely boost our chances across the board...
I think Ossoff is loosening up after Brian Kemp declining to run in the Senate election and realizing he has more flexibility in his re-election campaign than he did when he was a candidate back in 2020.
So who do y'all think is the favorite in Illinois senate? Krishnamoorthi, Kelly and Stratton are in and i guess we're waiting on Underwood? Priztker and Duckworth are behind Stratton but i'm not sure how much pull they have nor how well known she is.
I think Stratton is currently the favorite because of those two endorsements and the fact that Pritzker said he'll help fund her campaign. I'd put Krishnamoorthi second for his own impressive fundraising ability and his Obama creds. This kinda puts Kelly as third, which is no shade, I think she's wonderful, but the two above are definitely gonna put up a fight. Though Kelly's arguably overcome even more daunting odds, so I wouldn't be surprised if she surges to a top spot.
Krishnamoorthi must have some mighty expensive bills already. I live in IL and received four fundraising texts from his campaign today alone.
For what it's worth, Robin Kelly will be 70 years old when the next Congress is sworn in. Stratton will be 60, and Krisnamoorthi will be 52. 70 seems a bit old to start a Senate career, especially with age becoming more of a focus after all the recent deaths and health issues among older Democratic members. Dem voters are eager for generational change, and I'm not sure replacing an 80-year-old with a 70-year-old achieves that.
I'm solidly behind Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, she reminds me of Carol Moseley-Braun and she's solid!! 💙🇺🇲
I didn't mean in a bad way; she's obviously a huge upgrade. 💙🇺🇲
Minnesota secretary of state Steve Simon is running in Minnesota senate. It's good to see competition and not just coronations. I feel like lately races are just one candidate clearing out the field, let's give voters a choice.
There is no coronation happening in MN, with or without Simon. We have the Lt. Governor (Flanagan), a prominent House member (Craig), and a former leader of the Senate Dems (Franzen) already running, any of which could win the primary.
Chris Pappas is, however, being coronated in New Hampshire, but that's not because of anything other than (a) he's the strongest candidate and everyone knows it, and (b) the bench is thin in NH these days. Knowing who your nominee is going to be early in the process (i.e. by coronation) isn't always bad, as it allows the candidate to focus on the general election. That's especially helpful in NH, with it's really late primaries.
I suppose it's hard to avoid in smaller states when THE congressman runs. It helped that Kuster wasn't interested.
Pappas is the best you can get from New Hampshire which is basically a red state at the state level.
NH also really likes our incumbents. If Sununu had narrowly lost in 2016 instead of narrowly won, I'd expect the governor right now would be a democrat of some kind. Once someone becomes an incumbent here they're likely to survive even wave years.
Lynch won in 2010 by 7 points. Hassan won in 2014 by 5 points. Sununu won in 2018 by 7 points. NH governors (generally) quickly become popular and hard to unseat, even with waves. The rest of the state basically follows the legislative gerrymanders that the 2010 (veto proof republican majority that year) and 2020 elections gave republicans the ability to create.
Frankly, I think Sununu declining to run for the Senate, like Kemp in GA, was a smart move. If you're looking to remain relevant in the GOP, running for federal office in a state like NH might not be the best option right now in light of Trump and his administration.
Senators like Chuck Grassley are being hounded at town halls by constituents over DOGE and what's going on in the Trump administration. Sununu wouldn't be able to handle the heat like this as a Senate candidate.
Yeah but being that the GOP hasn't won a NH at the presidential level since 2000, whatever the NH GOP has at the state level doesn't translate at the federal level.
I highly doubt Franzen is in serious contention to win.
??
Simon is NOT running.
https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-secretary-of-state-steve-simon-wont-run-for-us-senate/601345152
Ok my bad, thought it said he was running. Regardless, point still stands.
And there, we've already got at least three credible candidates (Flanagan, Craig, and ex-State Sen. Minority Leader Melissa Franzen), with possibly more to follow.
Again, I don't see a coronation in MN when there are multiple competitive candidates running against each other. Flanagan and Craig especially will probably have to fight each other hard for the nomination. You might have a point if Craig had stayed out and Flanagan was the only major nominee...
I didn't say there was a coronation, i said it's good there's no coronation. Who are you arguing with?
You definitely implied it would be a coronation without Simon running, which he is not. Presumably you meant Flanagan was being coronated, even though Craig and Franzen are also running? Then you said your "point still stands," which I took to mean you still think your point about MN is valid. Maybe your "point still stands" was about coronations in general, because I don't see a point still standing about MN.
After the new GOP majority on the NCSBE was sworn in this morning, they promptly fired elections director Karen Brinson Bell. Now they're spouting veiled election integrity BS, even though Brinson and the formerly Dem majority on the NCSBE unanimously certified Trump's wins in 2020 and 2024.
https://www.wral.com/story/nc-elections-director-fired-as-new-gop-majority-takes-control-calling-for-trust-in-the-election-system/21996284/
I hope this backfires on the NC GOP in the following years. And Boliek is going to be a top target in 2028 -- and if he loses, Dems gain back the majority on NCSBE.
Maybe we can finally breakthrough in North Carolina and win a senate seat.
Tillis won by the skin of his teeth in 2014 and 2020 in R-favorable years. With the right Dem candidate and political winds, Tillis can kiss his seat goodbye next year.
He is not invincible. And if NC voters are fed up enough, Tillis won't lose by a small amount of votes (and try to pull a Jefferson Griffin). It'll be by a number big enough that Boliek and the GOP-majority NCSBE can't contest either.
I fear these kinds of things will be too inside baseball for most voters to even hear about them.
Yeah. NC GOP made Bell a punching bag for years -- all for doing her freaking job WELL. She requested to make a short speech at the NCSBE today, but they refused and promptly ended the meeting.
The way they treated her is appalling. And so, Democrats need to do the same with Francis De Luca.
In the same article about John Bel Edwards, it says
Mr. Schumer has told associates that he sees an intriguing opportunity in Mississippi, which has the largest percentage of Black residents of any state. One possible candidate there is Scott Colom, a district attorney who was appointed by President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to a federal judgeship — only to be blocked by Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, whom Mr. Colom would be running against in 2026. The state is also appealing for Democrats because it is small and relatively cheap to compete in.
Let's see the maths: (from Wikipedia)
White Americans: 55.4
Black Americans: 36.4
Latinos: 3.6
Asians: 1.1
Native: 0.5
Around 16% of the African American voting age population is disenfranchised, let's assume that in contrast 8 percent of the rest of the population is disenfranchised (and the Mississippi delta suffers from systemic poverty).
So assuming 90 percent of Black people vote for Democrats and taking into account the disenfranchisement, you get ≈ 30 percent of the vote.
Would we be able to get another 20 percent of the vote that too in Mississippi? Maybe it's a loser's game or maybe running a pro life candidate with the midterm electorate differences may make it possible.
We win 30% of the white vote in Georgia.
Note: The largest shifts in Trump's approval have been seen in non-white voters.
Would Cassidy get more swing voters, though?
Agree.
It's worth a half court shot because if Cassidy manages to win a bloody primary, there're potential for a lot of R voter drop-off. I don't think it'd be enough, but if it's a blue tsunami environment, it's worth a go for at least money diversion purposes.
Personally, I'd rather he run for governor again in 2027. (Governors in Louisiana are limited to two consecutive terms, but not two lifetime terms.)
I'd be shocked if he broke 42%
Running as a Independent in the South makes you lose Black voters who may be very socially conservative but are extremely loyal to Democrats according to a Split ticket Analysis. So that's out of the equation.
https://split-ticket.org/2025/03/26/where-should-democrats-run-independents/
Good analysis but how do we explain Dan Osborn’s underperformance with Black voters compared to Kamala?
Good post. If 2 candidates have a tied vote for 2nd place, they really have a 3-person runoff instead of doing some kind of coin flip or something? Same if there are 2 candidates tied for 1st?
Wild! Probably fairer than a coin flip, though.
Odd last sentence. No, it didn't look like you were being racist. Good post, too.
The Georgia white vote is not the Mississippi white vote. Not many northern transplants or metropolitan areas like Atlanta.
Yeah I know that, I emphasized "that too in Mississippi".
Mike Espy should run again.
3rd time's the charm?
Real shot, in this environment!!
💙🇺🇲
Where are you getting these "disenfranchisement" numbers?
Presumably how many were convicted of a felony at some point.
I see that Raffensperger did poorly in one opinion poll, but now that Governor Kemp has stated he won't run for the Senate, I'd have to believe that Raffensperger, with his record of resistance to Trump while otherwise supporting him, would be the strongest candidate if he were to run and win a Republican primary. Do any of you disagree?
Would Trump hold his nose and endorse him? Otherwise, the cult won't let him win.
Well, would he have endorsed Kemp? It seemed possible.
Like Kemp, It's almost impossible for Raffensberger to win a Primary ( indeed, I think part of the reason Kemp didn't run was because he had internal polling showing that he would lose in the Republican Primary).
That's very plausible.
I don't think so, media reports said that Kemp simply didn't want to serve in the Senate and didn't see any allure in it. He's going to remain involved in the 2026 state elections and maybe try a run in 2028. He is a very popular Georgia Republican.
I think Kemp is saving his powder for a Presidential run in 28.
I’m curious, is Gabriel Sterling a credible Republican candidate, if not for Senate then perhaps for some state-level office? I know little about his politics, but he does seem very personable. And to his credit, he ran perhaps the best official state election cycle in the country.
I think he's more of a technocrat type.
But since he fails the election-denialism test, he'd probably be toast in pretty much any GOP primary.
You’re probably right.
Raffensperger barely avoided a runoff in 2022 on the back of Democrats crossing over to vote for him since both Warnock and Abrams were uncontested. He won’t get that luxury in 2026 because the gubernatorial primary will be wide open.
Also I think most Democrats knew the GOP would hold the SOS seat in 2022. It’s a very different ballgame when there’s an incumbent Democrat to defend.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna205358
Jefferson Griffen has conceded defeat in the last unresolved race in the country.
Flattering MAGA by demonizing Haitians didn't really work out for Yost, did it?
MS Senate map approved by court https://x.com/RedistrictNet/status/1920179695384985883
Is this a bad gerrymander?