Morning Digest: With their top Georgia recruit out, the GOP's afraid MTG will run for Senate
But does she have the "guts" to go for it?
Leading Off
GA-Sen, GA-Gov
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's decision not to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has completely reset the Republican primary in this swing state and intensified chatter that far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene could run instead.
Many Peach State Republicans had signaled they would defer to Kemp, including Greene, who said in February that the governor "would be a very solid candidate." But now that Kemp is officially a no, Republicans are nervous that the congresswoman could win the nomination and cost them their chance to unseat Ossoff.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune may well be one of them. When reporters asked him Tuesday if Greene could beat Ossoff, the South Dakota senator avoided the question and instead said he had "no idea who the Republican nominee will be at this point" while insisting he was "encouraged by the fact there's a lot of interest."
Ossoff himself doesn't seem to think Greene will go for it, telling CNN in late March, "I don't think that she's got the guts to do it."
But even if Greene does sit out the Senate race, she could still make trouble for her party in another crucial contest. The MAGA firebrand told NewsNation on Monday evening that she'd seen polls that showed she could win either the primary for Senate or the GOP nod to succeed Kemp, who cannot seek a third term as governor.
Greene, who also said she might seek reelection to her safely red 14th Congressional District, added, "That's a choice that I can make. And I'll give it some thought."
Several other members of Georgia's House delegation—who likely would not give Thune quite as much heartburn—are also taking a new look at challenging Ossoff now that they know Kemp won't take up the task.
Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins, and Rich McCormick all said earlier this year they would consider running if the governor passed on the Senate race, and they each reiterated their interest on Monday.
Collins, though, indicated he wouldn't run if Donald Trump were to express a preference for someone else. He told Punchbowl News' Semafor's Kadia Goba, "What impacts my decision is the fact that whoever the president decides that we need to get behind and help push, then we're going to be pushing as hard as we can."
Rep. Rick Allen, meanwhile, publicly expressed interest in running for the Senate for the first time Monday. Framing his potential candidacy in terms similar to those Collins used, Allen said, "If the president wants me to run, I'll do it."
The party's supreme leader, however, may have his sights on yet another member of the House Politico's Jordain Carney writes that "Trump is interested" in having freshman Rep. Brian Jack in the race. Jack, a former Trump aide, has not publicly expressed interest in seeking a promotion, though he was just the subject of an extended profile in The Hill touting him as a rising star.
Rep. Austin Scott, finally, declined to rule out the race entirely, telling Punchbowl he had "no intentions at this time" of running for the Senate.
A trio of statewide elected officials has also been eyeing the Senate race. Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and Insurance Commissioner John King both talked about running months ago, while Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger didn't rule out the idea at the end of April. Raffensperger, who said he was also considering seeking the governorship, added he would make up his mind "in a few months."
Whoever eventually emerges with the GOP nomination, though, will need to work hard to fill the void that Kemp has left. An AJC poll from the University of Georgia conducted late last month showed the governor edging out Ossoff 49-46, but no other Republicans coming close. Ossoff led Raffensperger and King 48-39 and 51-38, respectively, while he towered over Greene by a 54-37 margin.
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Senate
IL-Sen, IL-08
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi became the second House Democrat in as many days to announce a bid for Illinois' open Senate seat on Wednesday, joining an increasingly crowded primary in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin.
In his launch video, Krishnamoorthi signaled that he agrees with Americans who've demanded Democrats strike a more defiant posture toward Donald Trump. Blasting Trump for "acting like a dictator" and "claiming he's a king," the congressman says, "People want to know: At this moment, in this time, where is the power to fight back? What does it look like?"
His answer: "It looks like you, and you, and you. All of us ready to stand up and fight back."
Calling himself "a first-generation kid," Krishnamoorthi reminds viewers that he "worked on a friend's campaign"—which happened to be Barack Obama's successful bid for the Senate in 2004. That experience, he says, taught him that "that Illinois will give you a shot, even if you have a funny name." (Taking note of his long surname, he asks the audience to "just call me Raja.")
After that famous race, Krishnamoorthi worked in various roles in Illinois politics before running for office himself, narrowly losing the 2010 primary for state comptroller. His next effort two years later resulted in another primary defeat, one that saw him fall by a 66-34 margin to Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth in the 8th Congressional District.
But when Duckworth ran for the Senate in 2016, Krishnamoorthi, who had emerged as a powerhouse fundraiser, easily won the primary in the race to replace her and racked up a double-digit victory in the general election.
He's never faced a serious challenge since, allowing him to stockpile a massive war chest over the years that stood at more than $19 million at the end of March—far more than any rivals had at their disposal.
But Krishnamoorthi will be going up against at least two seasoned politicians in next year's primary—Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and fellow Rep. Robin Kelly—and money alone is unlikely to determine the outcome.
Krishnamoorthi does, however, begin the race with a narrow edge according to the first poll we've seen since Durbin called it quits. The congressman narrowly outpaces Rep. Lauren Underwood (who has yet to join the contest) by a 20-16 margin, with Stratton at 13% and Kelly taking 8%. However, a 42% plurality are undecided with nearly 10 months to go before the election.
The survey, which was conducted by Public Policy Polling, was commissioned by the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association. The DLGA previously endorsed Stratton and has promised to spend "a robust seven figures" to boost her. The pollster's memo argues that she'll pull ahead once voters learn more about her.
LA-Sen
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is reportedly trying to recruit former Gov. John Bel Edwards to run for the Senate in Louisiana, and the state's most prominent Democrat isn't saying no. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher writes that Edwards instead "has signaled to party leaders to circle back to him closer to August."
Schumer's pitch comes at a time when Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 riot, faces a tough battle in next year's GOP primary.
But even a matchup between Edwards, who was elected governor in 2015 and 2019, and a far-right Republican nominee would still be tough for the Democrat to win: Trump carried Louisiana 60-38 last year, and Democrats haven't won a Senate race in the state since Mary Landrieu secured her final term back in 2008.
Governors
AK-Gov, AK-Sen, AK-AL
Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and former state Sen. Click Bishop on Monday became the first two major candidates to file paperwork to run to replace Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a fellow Republican who is termed out next year.
Both contenders soon confirmed to Alaska Public Media's Eric Stone that they were in fact running, though neither held much of a campaign rollout in person or online. Dahlstrom's website even still touts her as a 2024 candidate for the U.S. House as of Tuesday afternoon, complete with a video of Donald Trump endorsing her unsuccessful venture. (Trump has not weighed in on her current campaign.)
Dahlstrom challenged Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola last year for Alaska's only U.S. House seat, but Trump's support wasn't enough to save her from a disappointing third place in Alaska's unique top-four primary. Rather than forge onward to the general election, Dahlstrom dropped out and watched from the sidelines as fellow Republican Nick Begich ultimately unseated Peltola by a 51-49 margin.
Bishop, by contrast, doesn't even appear to have a site at all, and he may not put one up for a while. The candidate, who owns what the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks describes as a "small gold mine," told Brooks he still has work to do at his job site.
"We're going to mine this summer, but we've got strategic events—listening sessions—over the course of the summer, but they will ramp up after freezeup," Bishop explained.
Bishop, who did not seek reelection last year after 12 years in the Senate, used his interview with Brooks to tout himself as a moderate. The candidate likened himself to U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, saying, "If somebody's wanting an incendiary bomb-thrower, I'm not that person."
Dahlstrom and Bishop could face more intra-party opposition before long. The conservative site Must Read Alaska says that Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum and Attorney General Treg Taylor, who are both members of Dunleavy's cabinet, are considering, though we haven't seen anything directly from either of them.
Most of the focus on the Democratic side has been on Peltola, especially after the Cook Political Report said in February she was "likely" to run for governor. The former congresswoman hasn't announced anything yet, though, and there's still chatter she could challenge Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan or try to reclaim her old House seat from Begich.
Anton McParland, who is Peltola's former chief of staff, recently told the New York Times' Shane Goldmacher that he believes the former congresswoman will take several more months to deliberate. McParland, though, indicated Peltola remained likely to run for governor, saying, "No Alaskan really wants to be in D.C."
Dunleavy is set to become the first governor to be termed out of office since 2002, when the last Democrat to hold the post, Tony Knowles, completed his second term. More Alaska politicians are sure to take advantage of this rare opportunity—so much so that Bishop speculated that "you might see a dozen" run.
The state requires all candidates to run on a single primary ballot, with the top four contenders, regardless of party, advancing to a ranked-choice general election. Conservative activists narrowly failed to repeal this system at the ballot box last year, though they're collecting signatures to try again in 2026.
KS-Gov
Conservative podcaster Doug Billings said this week that he would enter the race to succeed Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, though he sounded anything but excited about his new campaign to replace the termed-out Democrat.
"The truth is, honest to God, I don't want to run," he told the Kansas Reflector's Tim Carpenter. He added, "We need a strong conservative governor in that office. We need a politician who's going to tell the truth."
The Republican primary field already includes Secretary of State Scott Schwab and former Johnson County Commissioner Charlotte O'Hara, who actually seem to want to run.
Several other Republicans could also get in the race: Carpenter mentions Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt and former Gov. Jeff Colyer as possible contenders. Democrats, meanwhile, are still awaiting their first prominent candidate.
OH-Gov
Things have gotten so dire for Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost's campaign for governor that he tried to get a job in the Trump administration that would give him an excuse to drop out of the Republican primary, NOTUS' Reese Gorman reports.
But while Yost wanted a post that, in Gorman's words, "would allow him to save face," he wasn't happy when he was offered the ambassadorship to Cyprus, a Mediterranean island nation with a population comparable to New Hampshire's.
Yost, who trails businessman Vivek Ramaswamy by gigantic margins in the polls, turned down the offer and remains a candidate. One source told Gorman, "​​For the White House to come through with an offer like this both shows their respect for him, and how much they value him, and then to turn that down is unbelievable."
Yost responded by taking to social media and calling the story a "distraction[]" put forth by Ramaswamy, though he didn't dispute its accuracy. The attorney general, for whatever reason, also shared this unflattering piece with his followers.
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House
FL-07
Attorney Noah Widmann announced Tuesday that he'd seek the Democratic nomination to face Republican Rep. Cory Mills, who is at the center of a series of scandals.
"When he's not getting investigated by the police for assault or for making millions selling weapons to foreign nations, he's busy cutting our Social Security and Medicare," Widmann said of the incumbent.
The Democrat also used his announcement video to talk about his biography, saying, "As an EMT, I saw firsthand how broken our health care system is—people with life-threatening injuries more worried about the cost of their care than getting the care that they needed."
Widmann is the first notable Democrat to launch a campaign for a Central Florida seat that Republicans gerrymandered in 2022. Donald Trump last year carried Florida's 7th District 56-43, according to calculations by The Downballot, which was considerably wider than his 52-47 showing in 2020.
IL-09
State Sen. Laura Fine announced Tuesday she would run for Illinois' safely blue 9th District, a move that came one day after longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky said she'd retire.
Fine launched her congressional bid by explaining that her husband's struggles dealing with insurance companies following his near-fatal 2010 car accident put her on a "mission to reform the system." Fine, who was first elected to the legislature in 2012, passed a bill last year to ban "junk" insurance healthcare plans.
She joins political commentator Kat Abughazaleh, who began running before Schakowsky announced her retirement, in what could be a busy primary.
One likely candidate is Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, whom Politico says is "expected" to run. Biss, a former state senator, gave up his seat in 2018 to run for governor, and Fine was elected to replace him. Biss bounced back from his primary loss to JB Pritzker by winning his current office in 2021.
Skokie School Board member Bushra Amiwala, meanwhile, said late last month she would consider running if Schakowsky didn't. The Chicago Sun-Times writes that state Rep. Hoan Huynh is interested in seeking the 9th District, while the Jewish Insider says the same about local prosecutor Danny Goldberg.
State Rep. Daniel Didech, however, ended speculation about his future by saying he'd remain in the legislature.
ME-02
Republican state Rep. Mike Soboleski did not rule out waging a second bid for Maine's 2nd District on Monday after former Gov. Paul LePage entered the race to take on Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. Soboleski instead told the Bangor Daily News' Billy Kobin that he wasn't sure if LePage is "the right fit for Maine right now."
Soboleski lost last year's GOP primary to fellow state Rep. Austin Theriault in a 67-33 landslide after Donald Trump and other prominent Republicans consolidated behind Theriault. Soboleski, though, was able to seek reelection to his seat in the state House after the original nominee dropped out, then won a second term in the legislature as Theriault was narrowly losing to Golden.
MN-02
State Sen. Matt Klein announced Tuesday that he would run to replace Rep. Angie Craig, a fellow Minnesota Democrat who is leaving the light blue 2nd District to run for the Senate. Klein, a physician at the Mayo Clinic, has served in the legislature since 2017 and characterizes himself as a moderate.
Klein also tells the Minnesota Star Tribune's Sydney Kashiwagi he plans to seek the local party endorsement at next year's convention but will keep running through the primary even if he doesn't get it.
Minnesota candidates often pledge to, in local parlance, "abide" by the convention endorsement and end their campaigns if someone else wins. Winning the endorsement, though, is not the same thing as winning the nomination, and primary voters regularly back candidates whom delegates have passed over.
VA-11
Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw on Tuesday became the first prominent Democrat to enter the race to succeed retiring Rep. Gerry Connolly, who quickly endorsed the new candidate. Walkinshaw is Connolly's former chief of staff, and the incumbent pointed to his experience to argue, "This is not a moment for on-the-job training."
Several other Democrats are eyeing the race to replace Connolly, who announced last week that he wouldn't run again as he battles esophageal cancer. Virginia's 11th District, which is based in Fairfax County, favored Kamala Harris 66-31 last year.
Mayors & County Leaders
New York, NY Mayor
Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Tuesday that he was forming a new party so that he can appear on the November ballot, whether or not he wins the June 24 Democratic primary for mayor of New York City.
In New York state and local elections, a candidate appears on the general election ballot under the column of each and every party that's nominated them, or, in local parlance, gives them their ballot line. As a result, contenders are often listed multiple times. (You can see an example here.) The candidates' votes under each line are then "fused" together to determine the winner.
Cuomo said he was creating the "Fight and Deliver" ballot line to allow him "to build the largest possible coalition and secure the biggest possible mandate," though his intraparty rivals have a different take. Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani argued that, despite the ex-governor's large lead in the polls, "Andrew Cuomo is scared."
Mayor Eric Adams, likewise, reacted to the news Tuesday by saying, "All he's doing is looking at Eric Adams' playbook." Adams dropped out of the Democratic primary last month and said he'd run for reelection as an independent; he later announced he was collecting signatures for not one but two new lines: "EndAntiSemitism" and "Safe&Affordable" (both apparently written just like that).
While next month's primary will be conducted using ranked choice rules, it only takes a simple plurality to win the general election.
Sore loser Jefferson Griffin finally conceded his election challenge against incumbent NC Supreme Court justice Allison Riggs, following Myers’ ruling. He won’t be appealing the ruling further.
https://www.wral.com/story/republican-concedes-long-unsettled-north-carolina-court-election-to-democratic-incumbent/21996287/
Jon Ossoff's statement that: "I don't think that she's got the guts to do it" was not expressing doubt about Marjorie Taylor Greene's intention to run against him. He was taunting her into doing it. Ossoff knows that Greene would surely get Trump's endorsement, and the result would be even more disastrous for the GOP than the Herschel Walker debacle.