There is no coronation happening in MN, with or without Simon. We have the Lt. Governor (Flanagan), a prominent House member (Craig), and a former leader of the Senate Dems (Franzen) already running, any of which could win the primary.
There is no coronation happening in MN, with or without Simon. We have the Lt. Governor (Flanagan), a prominent House member (Craig), and a former leader of the Senate Dems (Franzen) already running, any of which could win the primary.
Chris Pappas is, however, being coronated in New Hampshire, but that's not because of anything other than (a) he's the strongest candidate and everyone knows it, and (b) the bench is thin in NH these days. Knowing who your nominee is going to be early in the process (i.e. by coronation) isn't always bad, as it allows the candidate to focus on the general election. That's especially helpful in NH, with it's really late primaries.
Yeah. At-Large states with a young enough Rep to run is almost always a coronation if they go for it. Why bother running against them when you could just run for their seat.
A two congressional state seat is going to function as close as any other state could. And, NH is cute where both Reps are young enough and both Senators are old enough. Papas has the seniority out of the two reps so the other can wait for Hassan to retire.
NH also really likes our incumbents. If Sununu had narrowly lost in 2016 instead of narrowly won, I'd expect the governor right now would be a democrat of some kind. Once someone becomes an incumbent here they're likely to survive even wave years.
Lynch won in 2010 by 7 points. Hassan won in 2014 by 5 points. Sununu won in 2018 by 7 points. NH governors (generally) quickly become popular and hard to unseat, even with waves. The rest of the state basically follows the legislative gerrymanders that the 2010 (veto proof republican majority that year) and 2020 elections gave republicans the ability to create.
Frankly, I think Sununu declining to run for the Senate, like Kemp in GA, was a smart move. If you're looking to remain relevant in the GOP, running for federal office in a state like NH might not be the best option right now in light of Trump and his administration.
Senators like Chuck Grassley are being hounded at town halls by constituents over DOGE and what's going on in the Trump administration. Sununu wouldn't be able to handle the heat like this as a Senate candidate.
Yeah but being that the GOP hasn't won a NH at the presidential level since 2000, whatever the NH GOP has at the state level doesn't translate at the federal level.
There is no coronation happening in MN, with or without Simon. We have the Lt. Governor (Flanagan), a prominent House member (Craig), and a former leader of the Senate Dems (Franzen) already running, any of which could win the primary.
Chris Pappas is, however, being coronated in New Hampshire, but that's not because of anything other than (a) he's the strongest candidate and everyone knows it, and (b) the bench is thin in NH these days. Knowing who your nominee is going to be early in the process (i.e. by coronation) isn't always bad, as it allows the candidate to focus on the general election. That's especially helpful in NH, with it's really late primaries.
I suppose it's hard to avoid in smaller states when THE congressman runs. It helped that Kuster wasn't interested.
Yeah. At-Large states with a young enough Rep to run is almost always a coronation if they go for it. Why bother running against them when you could just run for their seat.
A two congressional state seat is going to function as close as any other state could. And, NH is cute where both Reps are young enough and both Senators are old enough. Papas has the seniority out of the two reps so the other can wait for Hassan to retire.
Pappas is the best you can get from New Hampshire which is basically a red state at the state level.
NH also really likes our incumbents. If Sununu had narrowly lost in 2016 instead of narrowly won, I'd expect the governor right now would be a democrat of some kind. Once someone becomes an incumbent here they're likely to survive even wave years.
Lynch won in 2010 by 7 points. Hassan won in 2014 by 5 points. Sununu won in 2018 by 7 points. NH governors (generally) quickly become popular and hard to unseat, even with waves. The rest of the state basically follows the legislative gerrymanders that the 2010 (veto proof republican majority that year) and 2020 elections gave republicans the ability to create.
Frankly, I think Sununu declining to run for the Senate, like Kemp in GA, was a smart move. If you're looking to remain relevant in the GOP, running for federal office in a state like NH might not be the best option right now in light of Trump and his administration.
Senators like Chuck Grassley are being hounded at town halls by constituents over DOGE and what's going on in the Trump administration. Sununu wouldn't be able to handle the heat like this as a Senate candidate.
Yeah but being that the GOP hasn't won a NH at the presidential level since 2000, whatever the NH GOP has at the state level doesn't translate at the federal level.
I highly doubt Franzen is in serious contention to win.