Caveat that I don’t live in Alaska, so maybe I’m way off base, but I think State Senator Scott Kawasaki would be Democrats strongest option for either the Senate or the House. He currently holds a Trump/Sullivan district in the State Senate.
He first rose to power in the legislature during the 2018 wave. In 2014 the district he won (Senate district A) voted 60-39 for Republican Pete Kelly. He unseated the then State Senate president by 51-49 (you’ll become very familiar with this margin as I explain further below), a flip to the Democrats. Redistricting changed the district to Senate district P and massively changed the boundaries from including the coastline to mostly downtown Fairbanks.
Still, the new district voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024. Meanwhile for 2022 the rules of elections in Alaska changed and instead a 1 v 1 race, it was a nonpartisan primary then general/runoff. This is where he pulled off 2 even more impressive feats than taking down the Senate President. In the 2022 primary he was down 51-49 R-D in the primary to the 2 Republicans running. He won 51-42-6 D-R-R (or 51-48 combined R vote) in the general election.
In 2024 he pulled off an even more astounding victory, suggesting a strong personal brand separating him from Democrats overall in Alaska. He was once again down in the primary 51-49, but this time to a single GOP opponent. In the general election though he beat his opponent by (you probably have already guessed it by now) 51-48.
I don’t think there’s a stronger Democrat able to consistently win extremely close and hard fought campaigns in red territory, earning crucial Trump crossover voters save for maybe Mary Peltola who is no longer in office, while Scott Kawasaki is still a State Senator. Who’s actually the stronger candidate can be debated obviously, but there’s no doubt regarding Kawasaki’s electoral strength imo: he’s in the same league as her.
A Kawasaki/Peltola federal ticket is probably the dream scenario for Democrats regardless of who runs for Senate or House. If I’m a Democratic recruiter I’m blowing up his phone to get Kawasaki to run for Senate, because the House district isn’t needed for a Democratic majority, but the Senate seat likely would be.
I suspect that it is also an easier race to win and it would keep her politically relevant for a future senate race.
Have we got any good candidates in Alaska for whatever race Peltola does not run in?
Caveat that I don’t live in Alaska, so maybe I’m way off base, but I think State Senator Scott Kawasaki would be Democrats strongest option for either the Senate or the House. He currently holds a Trump/Sullivan district in the State Senate.
He first rose to power in the legislature during the 2018 wave. In 2014 the district he won (Senate district A) voted 60-39 for Republican Pete Kelly. He unseated the then State Senate president by 51-49 (you’ll become very familiar with this margin as I explain further below), a flip to the Democrats. Redistricting changed the district to Senate district P and massively changed the boundaries from including the coastline to mostly downtown Fairbanks.
Still, the new district voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024. Meanwhile for 2022 the rules of elections in Alaska changed and instead a 1 v 1 race, it was a nonpartisan primary then general/runoff. This is where he pulled off 2 even more impressive feats than taking down the Senate President. In the 2022 primary he was down 51-49 R-D in the primary to the 2 Republicans running. He won 51-42-6 D-R-R (or 51-48 combined R vote) in the general election.
In 2024 he pulled off an even more astounding victory, suggesting a strong personal brand separating him from Democrats overall in Alaska. He was once again down in the primary 51-49, but this time to a single GOP opponent. In the general election though he beat his opponent by (you probably have already guessed it by now) 51-48.
I don’t think there’s a stronger Democrat able to consistently win extremely close and hard fought campaigns in red territory, earning crucial Trump crossover voters save for maybe Mary Peltola who is no longer in office, while Scott Kawasaki is still a State Senator. Who’s actually the stronger candidate can be debated obviously, but there’s no doubt regarding Kawasaki’s electoral strength imo: he’s in the same league as her.
A Kawasaki/Peltola federal ticket is probably the dream scenario for Democrats regardless of who runs for Senate or House. If I’m a Democratic recruiter I’m blowing up his phone to get Kawasaki to run for Senate, because the House district isn’t needed for a Democratic majority, but the Senate seat likely would be.
What a great post!