I too think that’s the most likely outcome. However, I do think there’s a path to victory (although very narrow) only if Cassidy after a brutal primary and JBE make it to the runoff. Republicans despise Cassidy in the way many of them hated Tate Reeves in MS or Roy Moore in AL (not for the same reasons obviously, but the intensity of the…
I too think that’s the most likely outcome. However, I do think there’s a path to victory (although very narrow) only if Cassidy after a brutal primary and JBE make it to the runoff. Republicans despise Cassidy in the way many of them hated Tate Reeves in MS or Roy Moore in AL (not for the same reasons obviously, but the intensity of the dislike) causing those Republicans to massively underperform the GOP baseline. If it’s anyone, but Cassidy, JBE’s toast.
You could easily imagine part of them sitting out though if he’s in the runoff, lowering the threshold for JBE to be victorious. With Trump in the White House turbocharging D turnout, that might just barely be enough for a conservative Democrat to pull off a remarkable major upset with 48-51% of the vote (I say less than 50% is possible for him to still win because of blank ballots or write-in protest votes).
It depends on if JBE runs or not, but theoretically in a Cassidy vs JBE runoff, it’s definitely possible!
Whether the tradeoff of any potential gain among swing voters is worth losing the number of MAGA GOP who already turnout at lower rates than the rest of the electorate when Trump is not on the ballot is not at all clear and imo given how few swing voters there are (especially in MS), I’d be far more worried if less Trump voters showed up if I was the GOP than any potential gains among swing voters for having Cassidy make the runoff.
Any other R no matter how controversial is a slam dunk win. Cassidy is the bigger risk for the GOP imo. It’s basic math, there’s more Trump voters than there are swing voters, so more of a base turnout problem is a bigger concern than say a non-Cassidy Republican turning off swing voters.
Especially facing a Democratic candidate Louisiana voters voted for not once, but twice into the Governorship. It could be arguable Cassidy could theoretically face two simultaneous serious, if not catastrophic electoral problems in the runoff, which could lead to a major upset: low GOP turnout and high crossover/swing voters going for JBE.
One caveat: If there’s a runoff in Louisiana and control of the Senate is up for grabs, Cassidy will still win fairly easily as partisanship takes hold (and I still think that’s the most plausible outcome in a JBE vs Cassidy runoff).
But if there’s a bloody primary, if Cassidy advances damaged and broke, if JBE runs a great campaign and advances to the runoff with a large amount of cash and if Senate control is already settled whether by D’s or R’s, then there’s a narrow path along the lines of AL 2017 to squeak a 6 year term. Lot of ifs obviously, so the path in LA is very small, but probably larger than MS and maybe even FL.
I too think that’s the most likely outcome. However, I do think there’s a path to victory (although very narrow) only if Cassidy after a brutal primary and JBE make it to the runoff. Republicans despise Cassidy in the way many of them hated Tate Reeves in MS or Roy Moore in AL (not for the same reasons obviously, but the intensity of the dislike) causing those Republicans to massively underperform the GOP baseline. If it’s anyone, but Cassidy, JBE’s toast.
You could easily imagine part of them sitting out though if he’s in the runoff, lowering the threshold for JBE to be victorious. With Trump in the White House turbocharging D turnout, that might just barely be enough for a conservative Democrat to pull off a remarkable major upset with 48-51% of the vote (I say less than 50% is possible for him to still win because of blank ballots or write-in protest votes).
Would Cassidy get more swing voters, though?
It depends on if JBE runs or not, but theoretically in a Cassidy vs JBE runoff, it’s definitely possible!
Whether the tradeoff of any potential gain among swing voters is worth losing the number of MAGA GOP who already turnout at lower rates than the rest of the electorate when Trump is not on the ballot is not at all clear and imo given how few swing voters there are (especially in MS), I’d be far more worried if less Trump voters showed up if I was the GOP than any potential gains among swing voters for having Cassidy make the runoff.
Any other R no matter how controversial is a slam dunk win. Cassidy is the bigger risk for the GOP imo. It’s basic math, there’s more Trump voters than there are swing voters, so more of a base turnout problem is a bigger concern than say a non-Cassidy Republican turning off swing voters.
Especially facing a Democratic candidate Louisiana voters voted for not once, but twice into the Governorship. It could be arguable Cassidy could theoretically face two simultaneous serious, if not catastrophic electoral problems in the runoff, which could lead to a major upset: low GOP turnout and high crossover/swing voters going for JBE.
One caveat: If there’s a runoff in Louisiana and control of the Senate is up for grabs, Cassidy will still win fairly easily as partisanship takes hold (and I still think that’s the most plausible outcome in a JBE vs Cassidy runoff).
But if there’s a bloody primary, if Cassidy advances damaged and broke, if JBE runs a great campaign and advances to the runoff with a large amount of cash and if Senate control is already settled whether by D’s or R’s, then there’s a narrow path along the lines of AL 2017 to squeak a 6 year term. Lot of ifs obviously, so the path in LA is very small, but probably larger than MS and maybe even FL.