
Morning Digest: We've got new fundraising data—and answers to our top questions
Our charts tell you everything you need to know about the second quarter numbers

Leading Off
After the end of the second fundraising quarter—but before campaigns were obligated to file disclosures with the FEC—we posed five key questions about the 2026 midterms that the new numbers would help us answer.
Now that we have data for every noteworthy congressional candidate assembled into our must-have charts, we can explore each of these questions in detail and shed new light on next year's elections.
1) Are senior House Democrats signaling they might head for the exits?
So far this year, only two senior Democrats in the House have announced retirements, but a slowdown in fundraising suggests more might follow suit.
Because we've been carefully tracking fundraising data for many years, we can compare incumbents' recent fundraising totals with their hauls from the same period in the last election cycle. Many of those who are 70 or older are falling short.
Among the 180 House Democrats who were in office two years ago, fully half of the 70-plus club raised less in the second quarter of 2025 than during the same timeframe in 2023, while only 41% of the rest of the caucus is lagging.
The situation is even worse in terms of cash on hand: 46% of the oldest Democrats have less money available than they did two years ago. The same is true for just 27% of those under 70.
Georgia Rep. David Scott was responsible for one of the biggest declines: He raised just $64,000, versus $156,000 a cycle ago. His war chest also plummeted more than half a million dollars to just $212,000, despite facing several opponents in next year's primary.
Connecticut Rep. John Larson likewise saw a notable dropoff, sinking from $189,000 to $106,000; he, too, has primary opposition. And the oldest voting member of the caucus, California Rep. Maxine Waters, had the smallest haul, at just $29,000.
2) Is the conventional wisdom on when to launch a campaign dead?
Probably not just yet. Thanks to the dominance of online fundraising, candidates can now raise major sums very quickly—and a few hopefuls have shown just how quickly.
Despite announcing with less than two weeks to go in the quarter, Iowa's Christina Bohannan and Michigan's Bridget Brink proved to be two of the Democrats' best fundraisers on the House front, taking in $773,000 and $482,000, respectively. Georgia Republican Jim Kingston also launched his bid late but raised $870,000.
The plethora of new kickoffs we've seen since the start of July, however, shows that most candidates still prefer to have as much of the quarter as possible to put together a strong-looking fundraising report.
Some contenders, though, seem determined to do things backwards: Republican Scott Brown announced his campaign for Senate in New Hampshire a week before the end of the quarter but didn't actually file a fundraising report.
3) Will John Cornyn's fundraising look as grim as his polls?
In a word, yes. Despite running in the second-biggest state in the nation, Cornyn took in just $768,000 for his Senate campaign in the second quarter—a sum that, these days, you might expect to see a strong House candidate pull in. In fact, 55 House candidates raised more than that from April through June.
Cornyn tried to puff up his numbers by including money raised by a related joint fundraising committee, but a large portion of that will go to the five other entities that also form the committee, including the NRSC.
Meanwhile, Cornyn's bête noire, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, raised $2.9 million—all for his own campaign.
4) Which Democrat has the inside track in Michigan's open Senate race?
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow was the first Democrat in the contest to share her fundraising numbers for the second quarter, and, it turns out, with good reason: Her $2.1 million take beat the field.
Rep. Haley Stevens, on paper, appeared to put up a bigger number. However, her ostensible $2.8 million haul included $1.5 million she'd previously raised for her House account, meaning that around $1.3 million constituted new money. That put her behind the third hopeful, health official Abdul El-Sayed, who brought in $1.8 million. (Former state House Speaker Joe Tate was an afterthought, with less than $200,000 raised.)
The top three Democrats, though, all solidly walloped the lone Republican in the race, former Rep. Mike Rogers, who also tried to inflate his showing, just like John Cornyn. In a press release, Rogers said he'd raised $1.5 million, but half of that went to a joint committee—again with the NRSC as one of the beneficiaries.
When the sleight-of-hand was pointed out, Rogers' campaign flipped out, saying, "The Left will do anything to distract from the fact that Mike Rogers outraised their leading candidate, Haley Stevens."
But not only did Rogers come in behind two different Democrats, he also fell short of a potential GOP rival, Rep. Bill Huizenga, who raised $747,000—just ahead of the $742,000 Rogers actually convinced donors to give to his campaign. Huizenga didn't comment on Rogers' meltdown, but as the Michigan Advance noted, the door is "now wider than ever" for him to run.
5) Can Republican House challengers catch up to Democrats?
Republicans seeking to flip Democratic-held House seats continue to lag their counterparts in more ways than one.
For starters, there are far fewer of them. Through the end of the second quarter, when looking at notable candidates, just 26 Republicans had launched campaigns for Democratic seats, while 67 Democrats had kicked off bids to win GOP districts.
They're also raising much less money. On average, Republican challengers raised $130,000 in the second quarter, compared to $250,000 for Democrats.
Among the heaviest hitters, the difference is even starker: 23 Democrats took in at least $300,000 while only five Republicans could say the same. The top Democrat, Wisconsin's Rebecca Cooke, pulled in an eye-popping $936,000, while the best-performing Republican, former Maine Gov. Paul LePage, raised $553,000.
These trends are a continuation of what we saw during the first quarter of the year: There's simply more enthusiasm among both Democratic candidates and donors than on the Republican side.
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Governors
GA-Gov, GA-06
Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath tells 11 Alive she has "no plans at this point" to run for governor of Georgia next year, adding that "there's a lot to be done here in Washington."
While that's still not quite a no, that response, along with her decision to refund $80,000 to donors that she raised while she was exploring a gubernatorial bid, is still likely to quiet whatever remaining chatter there was about McBath running statewide.
The congresswoman, who suspended her exploratory effort in March due to health challenges faced by her husband, should, however, have no trouble winning reelection to the safely blue 6th District.
Former state Rep. Stacey Abrams, by contrast, is showing a little more interest in running to replace termed-out Gov. Brian Kemp, the Republican who beat her in 2018 and 2022, though she still sounds reluctant to wage a third campaign.
"I'm not taking running for office off the table, but it's not right now top of mind," Abrams told NPR. "I truly have not made any decisions and that is in part because there's an urgency to 2025 that we cannot ignore. My focus right now is on how do we ensure that we have free and fair elections in 2026?"
State Sen. Jason Esteves and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms are currently the frontrunners in the Democratic primary. A third Democrat, state Rep. Derrick Jackson, is also in, but he's raised very little money.
MN-Gov
Former Republican state Sen. Scott Jensen announced Thursday that he would seek a rematch against Democratic Gov. Scott Walz, who defeated him 52-45 in 2022.
Jensen joins businessman Kendall Qualls, whom he defeated for the GOP nomination last time. Walz has not yet announced if he'll seek a third term, though he sounds likely to run again.
Jensen, a physician, was elected to the state Senate in 2016 and initially behaved like a moderate. He also seemed destined for a short tenure in politics: He announced in 2019 that he wouldn't seek reelection the next year, saying of the legislature, "This is a really bizarre place."
But Jensen embraced the bizarre during his final year in office. He abandoned his centrist image in 2020 by spreading misinformation about COVID and later entertained lies about Donald Trump's loss to Joe Biden.
Jensen decided to run for governor in 2022 and effectively secured the GOP nomination that spring by defeating Qualls and other opponents at the state party convention. But though Jensen had no serious opposition in the primary—no one of any stature decided to run after his convention victory—he continued to run as a hardliner rather than try to resurrect his moderate image.
As the GOP's nominee, he made national news during the final weeks of the race by circulating a debunked conspiracy theory that there were "litter boxes in some of the school districts so kids can pee in them, because they identify as a furry." He also struggled to compete financially against Walz and his allies, who focused on his hostility to abortion rights.
Jensen responded to his decisive loss by declaring in a June 2023 op-ed for the Minnesota Star Tribune that he was "done with rigid proclamations insisting on banning abortions." That piece ran a few months before a conference featuring anti-vaccine conspiracy theorists announced that Jensen would be part of their lineup.
WI-Gov
Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany will decide "after July" if he'll run for governor, the congressman tells the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Tiffany is one of several Wisconsin Republicans considering whether to challenge Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who has yet to announce if he'll seek a third term.
House
CA-22
Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains has publicized endorsements from Rep. Adam Gray, who represents the neighboring 13th District, as well as six other members of California's 43-person Democratic House delegation.
Bains also earned the support of SEIU California, which Politico characterizes as a "labor powerhouse," for her campaign to unseat GOP Rep. David Valadao in the 22nd District. Bains previously appeared in ads funded by the labor group exhorting Valadao to oppose the GOP's plans for massive cuts to Medicaid—a call he did not heed.
CO-08
Marine veteran Evan Munsing announced Thursday that he was joining the busy Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado's 8th District, a swing seat that includes the northern Denver suburbs and Greeley area.
Munsing, who works for an investment firm, is waging his first run for office. He pitched himself as an outsider, telling the Colorado Sun, "If the people who are in office could fix this, they already would have."
FL Redistricting
Florida's conservative-dominated Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the state's congressional map on Thursday, ruling that Republicans were permitted to dismantle the predominantly Black 5th District as part of a gerrymander advocated by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Plaintiffs had argued that the district was protected under amendments to the state constitution that prohibit map-makers from drawing lines that "diminish" the ability of members of racial and language minorities to "elect representatives of their choice." In its prior iteration, the 5th District had always elected Al Lawson, a Black Democrat; after it was revamped, it flipped to the GOP.
The justices ruled, however, that the district—which had been imposed by the state Supreme Court in 2015—constituted an illegal racial gerrymander in violation of the Equal Protection Clause of the federal Constitution. In the intervening decade, however, the once-liberal court veered sharply to the right thanks to appointments by DeSantis and his predecessor, Rick Scott.
IN-04
Indiana Rep. Jim Baird, who turned 80 last month, is again the subject of retirement speculation, but he could face serious opposition in next year's Republican primary if he instead decides to claim a fifth term in the dark-red 4th District.
Howey Politics writes that state Rep. Craig Haggard "is on record saying he will challenge" Baird, though there's no direct quote from Haggard announcing such a campaign. The legislator's Facebook page, titled "Craig Haggard Exploratory Committee 4th Congressional District," is noncommittal about his future plans.
Haggard, though, may have to face a different Baird if he wants to represent west-central Indiana. Inside Elections wrote last month that "GOP insiders don't expect" the incumbent to run again, adding that "his son, state Rep. Beau Baird, is getting around the district like a potential congressional candidate."
The elder Baird, however, ran again last cycle despite earlier chatter that he was about to step aside. An unnamed source confidently predicted to Howey in 2023 that Baird was "definitely not going to end up running," while Haggard said he was raising money to run whenever the congressman stepped aside.
Howey also wrote two years ago that there was talk that Baird could announce his retirement just before the filing deadline so his son could succeed him without having to deal with a primary. There was even speculation that the congressman would stay in the race just long enough to win the primary and then drop out so that party leaders could select his son as the new nominee.
The actual race for the 4th wasn't so dramatic. Baird turned back an underfunded opponent 65-27, and the deadline for him to drop out came and went without any action. Both Haggard and Beau Baird also sought and won reelection to the legislature without any trouble.
New fundraising reports don't offer any obvious clues about the congressman's plans. While he raised just $46,000 during the second quarter of 2025, that's almost identical to what he brought in two years ago before his reelection campaign. Howey also notes that Baird, who has $140,000 in the bank, is wealthy and can inject more money into his effort if he does run again.
Haggard, for his part, is continuing to raise cash for an eventual campaign, though not very much. The state representative brought in $25,000 during the just-completed quarter, and he finished June with $84,000 in the bank.
IN-05
Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz's team tells the Indianapolis Star that she "is fully geared up for when she formally announces her filing for re-election," a statement that would be definitive if it were about anyone other than Victoria Spartz.
The notoriously erratic Hoosier, though, has spent her three terms in office frustrating her party's leaders—and amusing political writers—by making grand pledges to oppose GOP priorities only to back down.
She hasn't been any more reliable when it comes to assessing her future. It was just last cycle that Spartz talked about running for the Senate, announced her retirement from Congress, threatened to resign her seat, and then ultimately ran for reelection.
The incumbent ended up pulling off an underwhelming 39-33 primary victory over Chuck Goodrich, a wealthy state representative who was one of eight challengers running for what they'd previously thought would be an open seat. Spartz went on to win the general election for Indiana's 5th District 57-38 as Donald Trump, according to calculations by the Downballot, prevailed by a similar 57-41 spread.
But while the aggressive gerrymander the GOP passed after the last census means that Democrats are unlikely to give her any trouble in this suburban Indianapolis seat, her next primary could be more interesting.
Goodrich has yet to say anything publicly about his plans for next year, though Politico's Adam Wren flagged in March that he sponsored a local Chamber of Commerce event under the logo "Goodrich for Congress."
Republicans who want a more dependable vote remain interested in what Goodrich does next. Howey Politics writes that "[a]ll eyes" are on the former legislator as Spartz's detractors hope to consolidate behind one strong challenger to avoid a repeat of 2024.
KY-06
Former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, who spent the last few years as health commissioner for Tennessee, announced Thursday that he was returning to Kentucky to seek the Republican nomination for the open 6th District, which GOP Rep. Andy Barr is giving up to run for the Senate.
Alvarado's kickoff came the same day that former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo joined the Democratic primary for a central Kentucky constituency that his party hopes to flip. Calculations by The Downballot show that while the 6th backed Donald Trump 57-42 last year, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear carried it in a 60-40 landslide in 2023.
Alvarado, as we wrote last week, became the first Latino to win state office in Kentucky in 2014, and he later served as then-Gov. Matt Bevin's running mate during his failed 2019 reelection campaign against Beshear.
Alvarado left the legislature in early 2023 to run the health department in neighboring Tennessee, and he stepped down last week as he prepared to head home to run for Congress. His primary opponents, though, aren't thrilled to see him back in the Bluegrass State.
State Rep. Ryan Dotson told the Lexington Herald-Leader that it was a "slap in the face" that Alvarado, whom he called a friend, didn't inform him about his interest in running for Congress before telling the world.
"I've stood with him and he's stood with me," Dotson said as he explained why he felt betrayed. He also unsubtly highlighted his rival's departure from the state: "He has to drive by my house everyday to get to his house—when he's in Kentucky."
State Rep. Deanna Gordon, likewise, responded to Alvarado's entry with a mass text saying, "We don't need someone parachuting in. We need someone who's been in the fight."
Things are much calmer on the Democratic side, where Dembo is likewise the third notable candidate in the race. Dembo, who had not previously sought elected office, will compete against former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson and David Kloiber, a former member of Lexington's governing body.
MA-06
Software engineer Bethany Andres-Beck on Thursday announced a primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, who has a history of antagonizing progressives, in Massachusetts' 6th District.
Andres-Beck, who would be the first member of Congress to use they/them pronouns, highlighted Moulton's comments last year about transgender people—a community that Andres-Beck is a member of.
The congressman responded to Donald Trump's win last year by arguing that his party suffered because it had devoted "way too much time trying not to offend anyone rather than being brutally honest about the challenges many Americans face."
"I have two little girls, I don't want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete," Moulton told the New York Times, "but as a Democrat I'm supposed to be afraid to say that." The congressman responded to the subsequent outrage by insisting, "The backlash proves my point."
But Andres-Beck, who is the first Democrat to challenge Moulton, believes the incumbent is "exactly wrong on the strategy piece."
"The problem people have with Democrats isn't that we have trans people in our coalition," the challenger told the Boston Globe. "It's that the Democrats in Washington are disconnected from ordinary Americans." They added, "It feels like a lot of national Democrats want our vote, but they don't actually want to talk to us."
Moulton, though, has plenty of money available to defend himself in the primary, which is set for September of next year. After raising $350,000 during the most recent fundraising quarter, he ended June with $2.2 million on hand.
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination for the 6th District, which is based in the region north of Boston known as the North Shore, should have little trouble in the fall. Kamala Harris carried this constituency 59-39, according to calculations by The Downballot.
ME-02
Rep. Jared Golden has released a survey arguing that, while he can beat former GOP Gov. Paul LePage, his potential primary opponent could cost Democrats their hold on Maine's 2nd District.
The month-old survey from the Mellman Group, which was first publicized by NOTUS' Alex Roarty, shows Golden edging out LePage 44-43. A recent poll from the University of New Hampshire, by contrast, placed LePage ahead 50-47, while an April survey for a conservative super PAC gave the Republican a 48-43 advantage.
Mellman, though, provides us with our first look at a hypothetical general election between LePage and Democratic Auditor Matt Dunlap, which shows LePage ahead 47-37. The release did not, however, include numbers testing Golden in a hypothetical primary against Dunlap.
Dunlap highlighted that omission to Roarty, arguing, "The fact the Golden campaign is waving this bloody shirt around tells you they're pretty nervous about a primary challenge." The auditor, though, has yet to commit to such an endeavor, and Roarty characterizes his likelihood of running "at 50/50."
We may be waiting for a while longer, though: Dunlap says he might decide after Labor Day, but added that he doesn't have a firm timeline.
NY-02
Democrat Patrick Halpin, who served as Suffolk County executive more than three decades ago, announced this week that he would challenge Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino in New York's 2nd District.
In 2024, Donald Trump scored a 56-43 victory in this constituency—which includes western Suffolk County's South Shore and a small slice of neighboring Nassau County— four years after he carried it by a small 51-48 spread. Garbarino won his third term last year by an even wider 60-40 margin.
Halpin, though, is hoping the congressman's recent votes for massive budget cuts—as well as the votes he wasn't awake to make—will weaken him. The challenger launched his campaign by faulting Garbarino for being asleep in May when the House passed a preliminary version of Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill."
"He's been caught snoozing while voting to gut hospitals, slash food assistance, and hand billionaires more tax breaks—all while Long Island families can't keep up with rent, childcare, or medical bills," Halpin said.
The Democrat, for his part, is making his first bid for office since he lost reelection as county executive in 1991. But Halpin, 72, has remained active in local politics since then, including as chair of the Suffolk County Water Authority Board from 2018 to 2023.
PA-10
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro on Thursday endorsed Janelle Stelson, a former local TV anchor who is waging a second bid against far-right Rep. Scott Perry.
Stelson, who launched her rematch campaign on Monday, currently doesn't face any serious opposition for the Democratic nomination. Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas, however, has expressed interest in joining her in next year's primary for the 10th District.
TX-15
Emergency physician Ada Cuellar announced Thursday that she would oppose Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas' 15th District, a Rio Grande Valley constituency that swung hard to the right last year.
Cuellar, whom the Texas Tribune's Gabby Birenbaum says is not related to Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of the neighboring 28th District, is the first notable candidate to oppose De La Cruz.
She may not be the last, though: Politico reported in January that Tejano music star Bobby Pulido was being "heavily recruited" by Democrats, and Birenbaum writes there's still talk about him running half a year later.
Pulido, who previously said he'd seek an unspecified office in 2026, is currently on a farewell tour that's set to conclude on Dec. 13—five days after candidate filing closes in Texas.
The political map may look quite different by then, though, as the GOP is determined to pass a new gerrymander. Cuellar lives outside the current boundaries of the 15th in Harlingen, which Birenbaum notes is in Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's 34th District.
The existing version of the 15th District, which is home to a large Latino electorate, favored Donald Trump 59-41 four years after it supported him by a smaller 51-48 spread.
Attorneys General
TX-AG
Former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski said Thursday that he'd enter the Democratic primary for attorney general of Texas, a nomination he unsuccessfully sought three years ago.
Jaworski launched his campaign days after state Sen. Nathan Johnson became the first notable Democrat to run. The GOP also has a contested primary for the powerful post that Republican incumbent Ken Paxton is giving up to run for the Senate.
Jaworski, who is the grandson of the late Watergate special prosecutor Leon Jaworski, wanted to face Paxton in 2022, but he lost the nomination 63-37 to former ACLU attorney Rochelle Garza in a runoff. Paxton went on to beat Garza 53-44, prompting Jaworski to say he was "sad to see her lose to the most reprehensible attorney general in America."
Jaworski, though, predicted to the Texas Tribune's Eleanor Klibanoff that things will be different for him and his party next year. The candidate argued that the eventual GOP nominee "will be parroting Trump's talking points," saying that a backlash against the administration will make them "very vulnerable."
The Cook Report has changed its rating of the Texas Senate race from "Solid Republican" to "likely Republican" thanks to the inter-party primary fight between incumbent John Cornyn and MAGA attorney general Ken Paxton.
Mamdani Wins Backing of Major Health Care Union That Had Endorsed Cuomo.
Local 1199, which represents 200,000 health care workers in New York City, rescinded its support of Andrew Cuomo and is now endorsing Zohran Mamdani for mayor.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/18/nyregion/mamdani-union-1199-endorsement-nyc-mayor.html