
Morning Digest: Our top five questions we wait on second-quarter fundraising reports
We're wondering about elderly Dems, GOP challengers, a Texas senator, and more

The second fundraising quarter of the year just came to an end, and candidates eager to tout their financial windfalls are already sharing some early numbers.
However, we won't get a complete picture until July 15, when every contender for the House and Senate must file disclosures with the Federal Elections Commission.
This data will offer insight into who's running a credible campaign so far, and who still has something to prove.
As we wait for those reports—which, as always, we'll round up in chart form—we're contemplating five big questions that we'll be able to answer next week.
Money matters to campaigns—and, not gonna lie, to us as well. We don’t need much, but we do need the resources to support our operations as a small independent news site.
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1) Are senior House Democrats signaling they might head for the exits?
After the deaths of three elderly House Democrats in a span of two-and-a-half months earlier this year, many Democrats are eager to see the party embrace a new generation of leaders.
Much of the old guard, however, is not quite ready to go. Most of the caucus' oldest members have said they plan to run again, including some facing serious questions about their health and ability to perform their jobs. Others say they're undecided. So far, only two—Jan Schakowsky of Illinois and Dwight Evans of Pennsylvania—have announced retirements.
There are many names to watch, including 83-year-old Illinois Rep. Danny Davis and Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, the second-oldest voting member of the caucus at 86, both of whom have yet to divulge their plans. But even some Democrats who've previously indicated they'll seek reelection, like Connecticut's John Larson and Georgia's David Scott, could change course—which is exactly what Evans did.
How much these senior Democrats raise this quarter will help shed light on their intentions. Those who choose to stick around, though, could face primary challenges and will need financial resources to convince voters to return them to office.
2) Is the conventional wisdom on when to launch a campaign dead?
Traditionally, candidates from both parties always wanted to wait until the start of a new quarter before kicking off a campaign.
The rationale was straightforward: Get started in, say, early July and you have a full three months before you have to divulge your first fundraising haul. The more time you have, the bigger the number you can put up. The bigger your number, the more impressed future donors will be, allowing you to bring in more money and more support—a virtuous circle.
Nowadays, though, we regularly see launches throughout the quarter, and even at the very end. Some notable candidates with late kickoffs in the second quarter include Democrats like JD Scholten in Iowa and Terry Virts in Texas, as well as Republican Scott Brown in New Hampshire, all of whom are running for the Senate.
All of these hopefuls jumped in under a month before the books closed on their initial fundraising reports. They're likely betting that modern grassroots fundraising—which, in contrast to dialing for dollars from big donors, takes far less time—will yield the robust windfalls that major institutional players always want to see.
Democrat Bridge Brink, running in Michigan's 7th District, is one example. She announced with just 13 days left in the quarter yet already says she raised a hefty $500,000 in that short span.
3) Will John Cornyn's fundraising look as grim as his polls?
Texas Sen. John Cornyn has trailed his challenge in next year's GOP primary, state Attorney General John Paxton, in every single public poll of the race, often by wide margins. He's even flirted with the idea of dropping out altogether.
So if Cornyn—who now insists he "will be on that primary ballot no matter what"—is to survive, he'll need to hammer Paxton relentlessly on the airwaves. And in jumbo-sized Texas, that means he'll need a ton of cash.
The beleaguered senator could get bailed out to some extent by super PACs and perhaps even the NRSC, but unless and until the Supreme Court rules otherwise, candidates are still entitled to much better advertising rates than third-party groups. Will Cornyn's longtime donors, though, still think he's worth the investment when his prospects are so dim?
4) Which Democrat has the inside track in Michigan's open Senate race?
Following Sen. Gary Peters' surprise retirement announcement earlier this year, four big-name Michigan Democrats have piled into the race to succeed him—all of them after the second quarter began. That means we'll be getting our first insight into how the field is shaking out financially.
The frontrunner so far is state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who divulged her topline haul first and said she raised $2.1 million over the last three months. One of her rivals, Rep. Haley Stevens, followed suit and announced she'd brought in $1.3 million while also transferring $1.2 million from her House account.
Stevens further revealed that she has $2 million in her campaign coffers, while McMorrow did not say how much cash she still has on hand. The other two main contenders, state Rep. Joe Tate and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, have yet to tip their hands.
On the Republican side, the only declared candidate is former Rep. Mike Rogers. However, he may face opposition in next year's primary from Rep. Bill Huizenga. Huizenga hasn't formally kicked off a bid yet, but like all members of the House, he'll have to file a second-quarter fundraising report—and, just as Stevens did, he can transfer whatever he raises to a Senate account.
5) Can Republican House challengers catch up to Democrats?
In the first quarter of the year, more Democratic candidates launched campaigns to flip vulnerable GOP-held seats in the House than vice versa, and they raised far more on average.
Thirteen Democrats in 10 different districts raised six figures in the first three months, with nine bringing in more than $300,000. By contrast, just two Republicans notched six-figure hauls.
Democratic recruitment has continued to far outpace GOP efforts: 53 notable Democrats kicked off bids in potentially winnable Republican seats in the second, while just 21 Republican hopefuls did the same in at-risk Democratic districts. The question then is whether Republican candidates can bring up their average fundraising totals, or will Democrats continue to leave them in the dust?
Correction: Steny Hoyer is the second-oldest voting member of the House Democratic caucus, not the oldest.
Donald Trump of course opposes Elon Musk's intention to form a new political party. However, demonstrating once again his embarrassing ignorance of American history, Trump wrote: "He even wants to start a Third Political Party, despite the fact that they have never succeeded in the United States.”
In fact, the Republican Party began as a third-party alternative to the Democrats and Whigs. It seems somewhat successful.
And the Reform Party was successful enough to elect a governor of Minnesota, Jesse Ventura. It was also successful enough to attract an opportunist named Donald Trump to attempt to secure its nomination for president in 2000.
Political news dump, recent stories.
NE-2:
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2025/07/07/former-state-sen-brett-lindstrom-running-for-congress-in-nebraskas-2nd-district/
Ex-State Sen. Brett Lindstrom is running for the Republican nomination for NE-2, which Don Bacon is vacating. He's running as a "pragmatist" -- a virtually meaningless word in the modern GOP.
PA-10:
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2025/07/after-15-years-in-dauphin-county-post-official-weighs-run-for-congress.html
Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas, a Democrat, is contemplating a bid against incumbent GOP Rep. Scott Perry. I don't know a whole lot about him but I welcome any Democrat willing to possibly unseat Perry -- particularly given how close elections have been in this seat in recent years.
CA-41. CA-LG:
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article309969345.html
Tim Myers, bassist of the band OneRepublic, is dropping out of the Democratic primary for Ken Calvert's seat and entering the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor instead. Myers says he is doing so because he believes he can better oppose Trump in that position.
NC-SEN:
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/07/07/congress/don-davis-senate-00441092
Rep. Don Davis, of NC-1, is considering running for the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Thom Tillis. No word on if Roy Cooper running will affect Davis's moves, but honestly, given how swingy his seat is, I'd prefer he stay in Congress.
IA-4:
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2025/07/07/matt-windschitl-iowa-republican-house-majority-leader-congress-4th-district-campaign/83821151007/
This article is paywalled (and I can't access it), but apparently Matt Windschitl, the Iowa State House Majority Leader, is running for the GOP nomination for the seat being vacated by Rep. Randy Feenstra. The seat is very red so whoever wins the GOP nomination likely wins the seat.
Several NY state legislative races:
https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/07/these-state-lawmakers-just-won-new-york-city-primaries-who-could-replace-them-albany/406468/
Assuming they all win the general election, NY State Senators Brad Hoylman-Segal and Sean Ryan and State Assemblymembers Zohran Mamdani and Harvey Epstein will all be leaving the NY State Legislature for other positions (respectively, Manhattan Borough President, Buffalo Mayor, NYC Mayor, and NYC Council.) A number of candidates are thus being floated for the open seats. More details in the link, but Mamdani's seat interests me -- as noted by the article, the DSA and progressives in general are quite powerful in that district (it's sometimes jokingly nicknamed "the People's Republic of Astoria", including by those who agree with their politics), and the Queens Democratic leadership despises them. I personally think it is very likely the special election will see them try to pick a non-DSA candidate who then gets into a primary with a prospective DSA candidate later. We'll see. (Also Anthony Weiner may try again for Epstein's seat. Hopefully not.)
Make all of this what you will.