Morning Digest: Seth Moulton is challenging Ed Markey in the primary, but will he make the ballot?

An unusual rule in Massachusetts presents an unusual hurdle for the congressman

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (D), at right (credit: Seth Moulton Facebook)

Leading Off

MA-Sen

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton is hoping to unseat Sen. Ed Markey in September’s Democratic primary, but first he must win enough support at the party’s May convention to make the ballot this fall—a potentially difficult task, as the Boston Globe’s Kelly Garrity explains.

To ensure he earns the votes of at least 15% of attendees as required under Democratic Party rules, the more moderate Moulton has been urging independent voters to participate in the delegate selection process currently underway in local party caucuses. To become delegates, though, these voters must re-register as Democrats and actually attend the convention in person.

A failure by Moulton to move on from the convention would, as Garrity says, be “stunning,” but some Massachusetts Democrats aren’t ruling out the possibility.

“It’s a fair question,” said Jim Smith, a Markey supporter and member of the state Democratic Party’s governing committee, told the Globe. “But the guy is a sitting congressman. If he can’t get the 15 percent, the rule is flawed.”

There’s also little recent precedent to rely on. The last time Markey faced a primary challenge—from Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III in 2020—Democrats had to cancel their convention due to the COVID pandemic. The party formally endorsed Markey but agreed that Kennedy would be treated as having met the 15% threshold. Markey ultimately won the primary 55-45.

The only recent survey of this year’s race, conducted last month by the University of New Hampshire, showed Markey with a 34-25 lead on Moulton, while a sizable 35% of voters were still undecided.

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Senate

OK-Sen

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt said on Thursday that he would not announce a replacement for Sen. Markwayne Mullin until after he’s confirmed as Donald Trump’s new Homeland Security secretary.

The Senate will hold a hearing on Mullin’s nomination on Wednesday, with a vote before the full chamber possible by the end of the month. Given the GOP’s majority, Mullin’s confirmation is all but certain.

Much speculation has swirled around whom the governor might pick, but as is our practice at The Downballot, we’ve eschewed covering it because the choice amounts to an election with exactly one voter: Stitt.

What we do know, though, is that Stitt is very likely to pick a placeholder, due to an Oklahoma law that requires anyone who accepts such an appointment to sign a pledge not to run for the post in the next election.

While this law is likely unenforceable—the Supreme Court has repeatedly held that states cannot impose eligibility requirements on federal candidates beyond those in the Constitution—it would put anyone interested in seeking a full term in an awkward position.

One Republican has already launched just such a bid, Rep. Kevin Hern. Notably, his name has not come up as a possible appointee.

House

AZ-04

Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton has drawn a primary challenge from activist Kai Newkirk, who co-chairs the Arizona Democratic Party’s Progressive Council.

“People have been coming out in the streets and organizing and standing up in a climate of a lot of fear for more than a year now to push back on Trump’s drive to seize power,” Newkirk told KJZZ. “And we’ve seen a number of our other representatives in state government and in the federal government and Congress that have been out there with us, and Greg hasn’t shown up once.”

Stanton, whom Newkirk called a “good man,” rejected that characterization in a statement to the station.

“In the East Valley, I’m continuing to deliver results — protecting our water, strengthening public safety, and driving real action to lower costs,” he said. “With Trump making life harder and more expensive for working families and sending ICE to target our communities, I’m not backing down. When it comes to building trust and earning the confidence of Arizonans, I won’t be out worked.”

Stanton was first elected to represent the 9th District, which includes the Mesa and Tempe areas, when then-Rep. Kyrsten Sinema ran for Senate in 2018. (It was later renumbered the 4th.)

Last year, he was tapped to lead the campaign arm of the centrist New Democrat Coalition.

“In the most competitive seats around the country, it is almost always New Democrat candidates, moderate Democrats, more pro-business Democrats, that can win in these most competitive seats,” he told The Arizona Republic at the time. “Our candidates are not as famous ... but what we do is we win.”

The 4th District and its predecessors have at times hosted competitive elections, but Democrats have always come out on top. That includes 2024, which saw Stanton defeat his Republican opponent 53-46—a narrowing from his 56-44 win two years earlier.

The presidential race also tightened. Kamala Harris carried the district 53-46, compared to a 54-44 margin for Joe Biden in 2020.

AZ-05

Former Republican state Rep. Travis Grantham, who had been running for Arizona’s conservative 5th District, announced this week that he could not continue his campaign because he had “been called into active-duty service for the Air Force.”

Grantham did not specifically cite the war with Iran but said, “What I do know is that victory is the only acceptable outcome, so I will gladly do whatever is asked of me for however long it is needed.”

Grantham faced a difficult path in the primary against former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement. A series of polls taken last year showed Lamb with dominant leads for the GOP nod in the race to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs, who is running for governor—also with Trump’s blessing.

LA-05

A former girlfriend of state Sen. Blake Miguez, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement in the race for Louisiana’s open 5th District, accused him of rape in a 2007 police report, The Atlantic’s Michael Scherer reported on Thursday.

According to the magazine, the woman also accused Miguez of “locking her in bedrooms, taking away her keys, and holding her down.” She also said that he attempted to follow her after she fled following the alleged rape.

Scherer wrote that Miguez’s campaign “denies the claims,” but it does not appear to have provided a more specific statement.

Despite Trump’s intervention, several other notable Republicans are running for the conservative 5th District, which Rep. Julia Letlow is giving up to run for Senate. They include state Rep. Michael Echols, state Board of Regents chair Misti Cordell, and state Sen. Rick Edmonds.

NV-02

Retiring Rep. Mark Amodei will host a fundraiser for former state Senate Minority Leader James Settelmeyer, even though the Nevada Independent’s Mimi Racker says the congressman previously told her he was not planning to get involved in the race to succeed him until after the GOP primary.

Amodei sought to explain the apparent inconsistency by saying (in Racker’s words) that “he would be open to doing the same for other candidates on a case-by-case basis.”

That claim prompted the Independent’s Jon Ralston to wryly question whether Amodei would consider a similar event for Air Force veteran David Flippo, who recently switched over from running for the 4th District after Amodei announced his retirement.

It’s not clear whether the two have any history of being at odds, but one group backing Flippo’s new campaign, Turning Point USA, tweeted that he would be “a HUGE upgrade from Mark Amodei.”

NY-12

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is preparing to spend as much as $5 million to boost Assemblyman Micah Lasher’s bid for the Democratic nod in New York’s open 12th Congressional District, the New York Times reported on Thursday.

That same day, Bloomberg endorsed Lasher, who had served as his director of state legislative affairs during his mayoralty, a position that made Lasher the city’s chief lobbyist in the state capital.

Bloomberg did not mention any planned financial support for Lasher but instead praised him as “a key part of our team in City Hall, where he helped secure the city’s fair share from Albany and advanced the cause of gun safety.”

SC-06

Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn announced on Thursday that he would seek an 18th term representing South Carolina’s 6th District and did not rule out the possibility of serving beyond the next Congress.

“This could very well be my last term and it could very well not be,” the 85-year-old congressman said at a press conference. “We’ll just see how things go.”

Clyburn, a Palmetto State institution, faces no opposition in the June primary and is all but assured of winning reelection in the safely blue 6th District.

VA-07

Democratic Del. Elizabeth Guzman, who was tested in a recent poll, has confirmed she’s looking at a bid for Virginia’s proposed 7th District.

Separately, the newest entrant into the primary, attorney Dorothy McAuliffe, just earned an endorsement from Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi.

WY-AL, WY-Gov

Wyoming Senate President Bo Biteman, who’d been considering bids both for the House and for governor, chose door No. 1 on Thursday, the day after the legislature wrapped up its work for the year.

Biteman joins a GOP primary that includes Secretary of State Chuck Gray, former state schools chief Jillian Balow, and billionaire businessman Reid Rasner. They’re all vying for the seat held by Rep. Harriet Hageman, who is running for Senate.

Biteman had considered a bid for Congress in 2021 and even reportedly sat down with Donald Trump, who was eager to back a primary challenger to then-Rep. Liz Cheney. Trump’s rose, however, went to Hageman, who easily defeated Cheney and is now seeking the seat held by retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis.

But Trump still seemed to retain some fondness for Biteman, telling conservative radio host Jeff Wallack in a 2023 interview, “I would like to see him run for governor. Press him to run. I would have endorsed him last time.”

Whether or not Biteman was aware of that offer at a point in time when it still would have been useful is not clear. Had he run, he would have taken on Gov. Mark Gordon, who wound up winning the Republican primary with a relatively soft 62% of the vote.

It’s also not clear whether Trump might still feel the same way today, as he has yet to weigh in on this year’s race for Wyoming’s lone seat in the House.

Ballot Measures

OR Ballot

A referendum that could partially repeal a transportation funding package can appear on the ballot in May, an Oregon judge ruled this week, and does not have to take place in November, as supporters had wanted.

Late last year, conservative opponents of the transportation funding measure, which had been championed by Democrats, collected enough signatures to put select pieces of it before voters.

Rather than risk a partial repeal, which could have jeopardized transportation funding further, Democrats initially sought to repeal the entire piece of legislation. However, they soon concluded that doing so would not block the referendum.

Instead, they opted to schedule the vote to coincide with the state’s May 19 primaries. Earlier this month, Oregon Public Broadcasting wrote that “virtually no one expects” the referendum to fail regardless of when it’s held, but conservatives have argued that Democrats preferred not to share a ballot with the referendum in November, when many of them will be seeking reelection.

Referendum supporters then sued, saying that the state constitution barred lawmakers from scheduling an earlier election. However, a state judge disagreed, ruling in a brief three-page opinion that the legislature had the authority to change the date of the election. Backers of the referendum indicated that they would appeal.

Poll Pile

• LA-Sen (R): Public Opinion Strategies for Bill Cassidy:

  • Bill Cassidy (inc): 35, Julia Letlow: 24, John Fleming: 21, Mark Spencer: 2

• LA-Sen (R runoff): POS for Bill Cassidy:

  • Cassidy 45, Letlow 43.

• MI-Sen (D): Upswing Research for Public First Action PAC:

  • Haley Stevens: 27, Mallory McMorrow: 25, Abdul El-Sayed: 23.

  • Public First Action, which is funded by the AI company Anthropic, does not appear to have endorsed or opposed any candidates.

• ME-Sen: OnMessage for the Insurance Watchdog Coalition:

  • Graham Platner (D): 44, Susan Collins (R-inc): 42.

  • Janet Mills (D) 42, Collins: 42.

  • The Insurance Watchdog Coalition describes itself as an advocacy group focused on exposing “the dangers posed by Big Insurance.” It does not appear to have endorsed or opposed any candidates this year (see OH-Sen below).

• OH-Sen: EMC Research for the Ohio Environmental Council:

  • Sherrod Brown (D): 51, Jon Husted (R-inc): 47.

  • The Ohio Environmental Council does not appear to have endorsed or opposed any candidates (see OH-Gov below), but its campaign arm endorsed Brown in 2018.

• OH-Sen: OnMessage for the Insurance Watchdog Coalition:

  • Sherrod Brown (D): 47, Jon Husted (R-inc): 45.

• OK-Sen (R): Pulse Decision Science for the Club for Growth:

  • Kevin Hern: 52, Kevin Stitt: 40.

  • Hern: 49, Stephanie Bice: 37.

  • The Club for Growth has not endorsed or opposed any candidates, but the pollster’s memo emphasizes Hern’s leads.

• TX-Sen (R runoff): Public Policy Polling for the Texas Justice Fund:

  • Ken Paxton: 45, John Cornyn (inc.): 42.

  • The Texas Justice Fund is an affiliate of the Lone Star Project, a pro-Democratic group.

• CA-Gov: Emerson College for Inside California Politics:

  • Eric Swalwell (D): 17, Steve Hilton (R): 13, Chad Bianco (R): 11, Tom Steyer (D): 11, Katie Porter (D): 8, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 3, Xavier Becerra (D): 3, Matt Mahan (D): 3, Betty Yee (D): 2, Tony Thurmond (D): 1.

• CA-Gov: UC Berkeley for Politico:

  • Steve Hilton (R): 19, Tom Steyer (D): 13, Eric Swallwell (D): 11, Katie Porter (D): 11, Chad Bianco (R): 11, Xavier Becerra (D): 5, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 4, Matt Mahan (D): 3, Betty Yee (D): 2, Tony Thurmond (D): 1.

• OH-Gov: EMC Research for the Ohio Environmental Council:

  • Amy Acton (D): 53, Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 43.

• SD-Gov (R): Emerson College for Nexstar:

  • Dusty Johnson: 28, Toby Doeden: 18, Larry Rhoden (inc.): 17, Jon Hansen: 14.

• FL-20 (D): Listener Group for Political Matrix News:

  • Elijah Manley: 35, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (inc.): 31, Dale Holness: 13, Luther Campbell: 1, Rudy Moise: 1.

• FL-27: Blueprint Polling:

  • Maria Elvira Salazar (R-inc): 46, Elliott Rodriguez (D): 43.

  • Salazar: 47, Robin Peguero (D): 40.

  • Blueprint is a Democratic pollster, but it’s not clear whether this poll was taken for a client.

• MA-08 (D): Workbench Strategies for Patrick Roath:

  • Stephen Lynch (inc): 62, Patrick Roath: 36.

• ME-02 (D): Tulchin Research for Matt Dunlap:

  • Matt Dunlap: 36, Joe Baldacci: 29, Jordan Wood: 11, Paige Loud: 3.

• SD-AL (R): Emerson College for Nexstar:

  • Marty Jackley: 51, James Bialota: 7.

• TN-09 (D): Data for Progress for the Justice Democrats:

  • Steve Cohen (inc.): 45, Justin Pearson: 44.

  • The Justice Democrats have endorsed Pearson.

• TX-23: Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC:

  • Brandon Herrera (R): 42, Katy Padilla Stout (D): 40.

• WI-03 (D): Impact Research for Rebecca Cooke:

  • Rebecca Cooke: 65, Emily Berge: 22, Rodney Rave: 1.