It’s truly spectacular. I was talking with a buddy about this earlier this week, and we couldn’t think of much else that Republicans could be doing to create a Democratic tsunami.
1. They skyrocketed prices with tariffs.
2. They pissed away their sudden gains with minorities from 2024 by racially profiling and harassing brown citizens.
3. They are executing law-abiding, gun-carrying American citizens in the street with impunity.
4. They pardoned domestic terrorists en masse.
5. They started another pointless war in the Middle East, causing a gas spike and the senseless loss of American troops’ lives, along with civilians across the region.
6. General incompetence surrounding Trump’s administration on so many other things, from Hegseth to RFK.
It’s almost like they are trying to gift Democrats the Senate despite the map.
See, to me, the adage “do popular things and don’t do unpopular things” seems self-evident, but the current admin is a mix of A) high on its own supply and B) allergic to being told that certain ideas are in fact bad and react violently to such critique
It's also a stark example of how the US system has no real guardrails to protect against flagrantly unpopular things being done by lame duck incumbents who are unconcerned with the consequences of being unpopular.
There has yet to be a prolonged 2 or 3 week downturn in the markets... once that happens and some real haircuts start getting taken, they are cooked. Markets being relatively flat, near all time highs is the only thing propping up trump at this point
This is competitive, and we should certainly run as strong a campaign as possible, but Trump only got 53% of the vote here in 2024, I’m not sure if falling to 46% would be enough to drag down a strong incumbent like Turner. Trump might need to fall more (which of course could absolutely happen).
I would like to start seeing some topline numbers in seats like this to measure the gubernatorial and senate races. That should give us an idea of the ticket splitting in certain races.
In 2022 margin was hanging between 63-37 (DeWine) and 58-42 (Sprague, the Treasurer) for all statewide Republicans BESIDES Vance, who squeaked out a 53-47 in this district. Turner 62-38.
Turner is definitely a strong incumbent, though, and might be sufficiently far from Trump that his approval ratings don't really drag Turner down that much. If someone like Mayor Shenise Turner-Sloss or Commissioner Darryl Fairchild (both seen as "outside the Democratic Party" democrats) ran, this could maybe be swingy, but I would think in Ohio the focus should be defending Landsman/Kaptur/Sykes and flipping Miller/Carey, with this race maybe next to Joyce in priority
If she had run, I imagine her being half-Iranian would have come up at some point, and she wouldn't want to have to explain what that meant to MAGA primary voters outside her district or deal with low key racism.
Seth is anti trans. Better candidate Alex rickleen. I will not vote for anyone anti trans. Market should pass the baton but we cannot support someone who agrees with Nancy Mace and MAGA.
Most Dems do not support biological men playing women's sports. Moulton co-sponsored the Trans Bill of Rights. Appears to support trans folks in every way except sports.
I would like to recommend against using terms like "biological men" when referring to trans girls and women, these are terms favored by the anti-trans right.
I'm sorry, doing shit like this is why Dems are so underwater on this issue. Just because the right wing is using or misusing certain terms doesn't mean it should be banned from mentioning amidst those left of center.
I don't accept that correlation (I'm going to avoid that debate here) but I'll just say I think it's a loser both politically and logically if, amidst a respectful debate, we can't acknowledge that biological sex is a real thing. I think conflating sex and gender was/is a very dumb move and ceding unnecessary ground to the reactionary right.
Are you implying that being trans is not real? When you say things like “biological sex is a real thing”, specifically in this context, I get the impression you are denying trans people are actually trans.
If this is a misinterpretation of your position I apologize. I just want to make sure we’re not engaging in disinformation here.
I doubt this will persuade you, but trans people themselves really hate the terms "biological males" and "biological females", and that alone is reason to enlighten ourselves and adjust our language and how we frame this discussion. Trans people themselves are a biological occurrence. How else would they come to exist? Intersex people also do not fit neatly into your tidy categories. It may be a political loser, but only because the majority of the population is ignorant. The same has been true of gay marriage, climate change, and every other forward-moving issue. There is no way to avoid the discussion and terminology except by pretending they don't exist, as so many centrists in the Democratic Party would like. Erasure.
Can we presume a little good faith that not all Democrats (or the average person) are 100% educated on the nuances of the trans community? Moulton is not my first choice but he is not Nancy Mace bigoted or a demagogue, he pointed out truthfully that the trans issue was an anvil on the Harris campaign. I know at least one woman in my family who otherwise voted Democratic their whole lives but this specific issue made them (idiotically) vote Trump 2024. For many woman the sports issue has true resonance and it feels like yet another circumstance where they must STFU and just accept what feels inherently unfair. We as democrats should be able to have these conversations in our party without being tarred as anti-trans or else how can we change hearts and minds outside the party? Finally, please bring to my attention the best resources you believe can help me educate myself better on this issue…I ask in total good faith.
I don't think Moulton deserves a presumption of good faith. He didn't articulate it as something like "We need to discuss this issue better, or convince people it's so rare it doesn't matter" type of deal. He leaned directly into right-wing talking points. Then when he was called out on it he played the woe is me victim card. Moulton is an asshole.
Exactly - he didn't do media appearances about signing the trans bill of rights, he did them from the frame of the right's talking points. I don't know why it is so hard for some people on the left to expect a robust defense of values around civil rights instead of "Well, the people who keep calling me a groomer actually have some points."
I don't think this is an accurate assessment of Moulton's position.
As a simple example, he has twice co‑sponsored House Democrats’ Transgender Bill of Rights and has received perfect scores from the Human Rights Campaign. As far as I can tell, the only "negative" thing he's said about Trans rights was this quote: “I have two little girls, I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete, but as a Democrat I’m supposed to be afraid to say that.” While probably overly aggressively put, this is not an indefensible position. Long story short, I think characterizing him as "anti-trans" is pretty inaccurate.
Talarico has the perfect framing of this debate that’s literally a handful of people across the country. Pronouns vs. Prices: Which matters to you more? Stop falling into the BS Right Wing talking points.
This, this, a thousand times this. If polling is any indication, voters don’t particularly care about culture war issues when being able to afford basic necessities is approaching impossibility. (And the needless Iran war is about to make that significantly harder, even!)
Politics is priorities. We should always be asking people the question “What matters to you the most?”. If someone really does reply with trans women in sports, then, ok, I don’t think we’re going to be winning them over. But make them say it.
This comment really sucked. Yes, there is such a thing as sex that is distinct from gender. But referring to trans women and trans girls as "biological men" is not acceptable. It's not how trans women/girls refer to themselves, and you don't get to choose a different term for them.
It would be funny if Rickleen got 15% at the convention and Moulton didn't. His politics are a better fit for the sentiment of the moment, even if he really is the proverbial "some dude".
I fear Clyburn will face the same fate that his fellow House Democratic members did at running for reelection at 80+ years old.
Lee and Connolly died of cancer in office while another died of natural causes shortly after winning Lee's seat. Please, House Rep. Clyburn, retire and actually enjoy your final years so that GOP governors can't delay a special election to replace you.
Seth Moulton? The Congressman who tried to stop Nancy Pelosi from being re-elected as Speaker, without bothering even to find anyone willing to run against her? That idiot??
Methinks the voters of the 6th Congressional District – and all the rest of Massachusetts – would be well served by Seth Moulton taking a long walk on the shortest fishing pier in Gloucester!
The details on the Public Policy Polling memo are interesting. When asked who did you vote for in 2024 it’s 51-39 with 10 who didn’t vote or wouldn’t say. That’s 3% less of a margin than Trump would have won the district according to the Texas Tribune.
Talarico is up. Hinojosa is tied. Padilla is down, but 61% of the sample don’t know who she is. Of those who do know her, her favorability rating is positive. Herrera’s is negative.
It’s just one poll, but hints of a big shift on that south Texas district.
I think it supports the idea that Acton is likelier of her and Brown to win. Multiple polls have now borne that out. I think Acton ultimately wins if I had to guess. Lean no on Brown, but here’s to hoping I’m wrong.
Yes, but I would take any win we can get in that state at this point. I can’t decide whether I want to win the governorship or the Senate race more, if I had to choose. Seeing Ramaswamy lose would be one of the best morale boosts we could claim as a party in November. However, the Senate race could flip the entire Senate depending on how other races go, even if Brown would have to run again in 2028. It’s tough.
Flipping the Senate would be huge! I would love to see the Democratic Caucus to 51 or preferably 52 (counting our two Independents, Angus King and Bernie Sanders, and the alarmingly-unreliable Fetterman). There is so much we would have the power to do – e.g. stopping Trump’s court appointments and other nominations for starters.
I'm starting to become a bit of an optimist on OH. While it has zoomed to the right in recent years, Obama did win it twice and Brown won re-election multiple times. If the current political environment holds, it's not nuts to think we could win both OH-Gov and OH-Sen.
Wow!
"Democrats are contesting 182 seats vs the GOP's 144."
How many seats are Democrats and Republicans, respectively, *failing* to contest? Do you have those two numbers as well?
It’s truly spectacular. I was talking with a buddy about this earlier this week, and we couldn’t think of much else that Republicans could be doing to create a Democratic tsunami.
1. They skyrocketed prices with tariffs.
2. They pissed away their sudden gains with minorities from 2024 by racially profiling and harassing brown citizens.
3. They are executing law-abiding, gun-carrying American citizens in the street with impunity.
4. They pardoned domestic terrorists en masse.
5. They started another pointless war in the Middle East, causing a gas spike and the senseless loss of American troops’ lives, along with civilians across the region.
6. General incompetence surrounding Trump’s administration on so many other things, from Hegseth to RFK.
It’s almost like they are trying to gift Democrats the Senate despite the map.
See, to me, the adage “do popular things and don’t do unpopular things” seems self-evident, but the current admin is a mix of A) high on its own supply and B) allergic to being told that certain ideas are in fact bad and react violently to such critique
It's also a stark example of how the US system has no real guardrails to protect against flagrantly unpopular things being done by lame duck incumbents who are unconcerned with the consequences of being unpopular.
7. Encourage the spread of measles by discrediting vaccines
There has yet to be a prolonged 2 or 3 week downturn in the markets... once that happens and some real haircuts start getting taken, they are cooked. Markets being relatively flat, near all time highs is the only thing propping up trump at this point
Why is she running as an independent now?
Cry more, cons
They have no one but themselves to blame for this mess.
Cons is right.
I hope Max Frost survives this. I really like him.
Amazing!
This is competitive, and we should certainly run as strong a campaign as possible, but Trump only got 53% of the vote here in 2024, I’m not sure if falling to 46% would be enough to drag down a strong incumbent like Turner. Trump might need to fall more (which of course could absolutely happen).
I would like to start seeing some topline numbers in seats like this to measure the gubernatorial and senate races. That should give us an idea of the ticket splitting in certain races.
2024: Moreno 49-48. Turner 58-39.
In 2022 margin was hanging between 63-37 (DeWine) and 58-42 (Sprague, the Treasurer) for all statewide Republicans BESIDES Vance, who squeaked out a 53-47 in this district. Turner 62-38.
Turner is definitely a strong incumbent, though, and might be sufficiently far from Trump that his approval ratings don't really drag Turner down that much. If someone like Mayor Shenise Turner-Sloss or Commissioner Darryl Fairchild (both seen as "outside the Democratic Party" democrats) ran, this could maybe be swingy, but I would think in Ohio the focus should be defending Landsman/Kaptur/Sykes and flipping Miller/Carey, with this race maybe next to Joyce in priority
Hopefully many state delegations flip blue too
Maybe Hern will still get a primary.
If she had run, I imagine her being half-Iranian would have come up at some point, and she wouldn't want to have to explain what that meant to MAGA primary voters outside her district or deal with low key racism.
Seth is anti trans. Better candidate Alex rickleen. I will not vote for anyone anti trans. Market should pass the baton but we cannot support someone who agrees with Nancy Mace and MAGA.
Most Dems do not support biological men playing women's sports. Moulton co-sponsored the Trans Bill of Rights. Appears to support trans folks in every way except sports.
What an asshole
I would like to recommend against using terms like "biological men" when referring to trans girls and women, these are terms favored by the anti-trans right.
The term also implies being trans is not real, which is both horseshit and appalling.
I'm sorry, doing shit like this is why Dems are so underwater on this issue. Just because the right wing is using or misusing certain terms doesn't mean it should be banned from mentioning amidst those left of center.
Calling trans women "biological men" is like calling gay people "biological straights". Would you think that's a productive term to use?
I don't accept that correlation (I'm going to avoid that debate here) but I'll just say I think it's a loser both politically and logically if, amidst a respectful debate, we can't acknowledge that biological sex is a real thing. I think conflating sex and gender was/is a very dumb move and ceding unnecessary ground to the reactionary right.
Are you implying that being trans is not real? When you say things like “biological sex is a real thing”, specifically in this context, I get the impression you are denying trans people are actually trans.
If this is a misinterpretation of your position I apologize. I just want to make sure we’re not engaging in disinformation here.
This is quite a strawman, I don't know of anyone on the pro-trans rights side that says that sex assigned at birth isn't a "real thing"
I doubt this will persuade you, but trans people themselves really hate the terms "biological males" and "biological females", and that alone is reason to enlighten ourselves and adjust our language and how we frame this discussion. Trans people themselves are a biological occurrence. How else would they come to exist? Intersex people also do not fit neatly into your tidy categories. It may be a political loser, but only because the majority of the population is ignorant. The same has been true of gay marriage, climate change, and every other forward-moving issue. There is no way to avoid the discussion and terminology except by pretending they don't exist, as so many centrists in the Democratic Party would like. Erasure.
Can we presume a little good faith that not all Democrats (or the average person) are 100% educated on the nuances of the trans community? Moulton is not my first choice but he is not Nancy Mace bigoted or a demagogue, he pointed out truthfully that the trans issue was an anvil on the Harris campaign. I know at least one woman in my family who otherwise voted Democratic their whole lives but this specific issue made them (idiotically) vote Trump 2024. For many woman the sports issue has true resonance and it feels like yet another circumstance where they must STFU and just accept what feels inherently unfair. We as democrats should be able to have these conversations in our party without being tarred as anti-trans or else how can we change hearts and minds outside the party? Finally, please bring to my attention the best resources you believe can help me educate myself better on this issue…I ask in total good faith.
I struggle to see how using the language "I would like to recommend against using [x term]" indicates I wasn't operating in good faith.
I don't think Moulton deserves a presumption of good faith. He didn't articulate it as something like "We need to discuss this issue better, or convince people it's so rare it doesn't matter" type of deal. He leaned directly into right-wing talking points. Then when he was called out on it he played the woe is me victim card. Moulton is an asshole.
Exactly - he didn't do media appearances about signing the trans bill of rights, he did them from the frame of the right's talking points. I don't know why it is so hard for some people on the left to expect a robust defense of values around civil rights instead of "Well, the people who keep calling me a groomer actually have some points."
If only your namesake would be so compassionate and sensible!
I don't think this is an accurate assessment of Moulton's position.
As a simple example, he has twice co‑sponsored House Democrats’ Transgender Bill of Rights and has received perfect scores from the Human Rights Campaign. As far as I can tell, the only "negative" thing he's said about Trans rights was this quote: “I have two little girls, I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete, but as a Democrat I’m supposed to be afraid to say that.” While probably overly aggressively put, this is not an indefensible position. Long story short, I think characterizing him as "anti-trans" is pretty inaccurate.
"Biological men" fuck off with the right-wing talking points
Talarico has the perfect framing of this debate that’s literally a handful of people across the country. Pronouns vs. Prices: Which matters to you more? Stop falling into the BS Right Wing talking points.
This, this, a thousand times this. If polling is any indication, voters don’t particularly care about culture war issues when being able to afford basic necessities is approaching impossibility. (And the needless Iran war is about to make that significantly harder, even!)
Politics is priorities. We should always be asking people the question “What matters to you the most?”. If someone really does reply with trans women in sports, then, ok, I don’t think we’re going to be winning them over. But make them say it.
Sports are organized by leagues. From youth sports to the Olympics to professional sports.
What is wrong with letting each league make the rules? Why does this require the government to get involved?
This comment really sucked. Yes, there is such a thing as sex that is distinct from gender. But referring to trans women and trans girls as "biological men" is not acceptable. It's not how trans women/girls refer to themselves, and you don't get to choose a different term for them.
It would be funny if Rickleen got 15% at the convention and Moulton didn't. His politics are a better fit for the sentiment of the moment, even if he really is the proverbial "some dude".
No to Seth. He is anti trans.
I fear Clyburn will face the same fate that his fellow House Democratic members did at running for reelection at 80+ years old.
Lee and Connolly died of cancer in office while another died of natural causes shortly after winning Lee's seat. Please, House Rep. Clyburn, retire and actually enjoy your final years so that GOP governors can't delay a special election to replace you.
Seth Moulton? The Congressman who tried to stop Nancy Pelosi from being re-elected as Speaker, without bothering even to find anyone willing to run against her? That idiot??
Methinks the voters of the 6th Congressional District – and all the rest of Massachusetts – would be well served by Seth Moulton taking a long walk on the shortest fishing pier in Gloucester!
This. I don't love his stances and comments on trans issues, but his record as a politician before that is being an outright doofus.
I really wish Markey had retired and endorsed Ayanna Pressley.
Markey is a fine Senator.
One of the best, in fact.
Yeah, the only knock I've heard about Markey is that hes old. I don't think being in his late 70s is justification for the hate he gets.
And Biden was a great President who helped the country move on from Trump...until he wasn't.
Moulton was actually a more reliable House Democrat on the issues but he has a habit of making an ass out of himself.
Hopefully a landslide of Moulton lava goes against Seth Moulton’s Senate primary campaign so he loses badly.
Moulton is awful.
The details on the Public Policy Polling memo are interesting. When asked who did you vote for in 2024 it’s 51-39 with 10 who didn’t vote or wouldn’t say. That’s 3% less of a margin than Trump would have won the district according to the Texas Tribune.
Talarico is up. Hinojosa is tied. Padilla is down, but 61% of the sample don’t know who she is. Of those who do know her, her favorability rating is positive. Herrera’s is negative.
It’s just one poll, but hints of a big shift on that south Texas district.
Can any Ohioans speak to the very optimistic polling here? Is Vivek losing by 10 realistic? I mean, I love to see it.
Not an Ohioan, but the polling seems to follow the trajectory shown by Emerson polling last December, which had Acton at 46% and Vivek at 45%.
https://tiffinohio.net/posts/poll-amy-acton-leads-vivek-ramaswamy-by-10-in-ohio-governor-s-race/
I think it supports the idea that Acton is likelier of her and Brown to win. Multiple polls have now borne that out. I think Acton ultimately wins if I had to guess. Lean no on Brown, but here’s to hoping I’m wrong.
I would love to see that GOP majority on the Ohio Supreme Court go from 6-1 to 5-2 after November.
Yes, but I would take any win we can get in that state at this point. I can’t decide whether I want to win the governorship or the Senate race more, if I had to choose. Seeing Ramaswamy lose would be one of the best morale boosts we could claim as a party in November. However, the Senate race could flip the entire Senate depending on how other races go, even if Brown would have to run again in 2028. It’s tough.
The U.S. Senate has more impact on the country than the Governor of Ohio. Easy choice for me as a non-Buckeye.
Flipping the Senate would be huge! I would love to see the Democratic Caucus to 51 or preferably 52 (counting our two Independents, Angus King and Bernie Sanders, and the alarmingly-unreliable Fetterman). There is so much we would have the power to do – e.g. stopping Trump’s court appointments and other nominations for starters.
I'm starting to become a bit of an optimist on OH. While it has zoomed to the right in recent years, Obama did win it twice and Brown won re-election multiple times. If the current political environment holds, it's not nuts to think we could win both OH-Gov and OH-Sen.