Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek championed the transportation funding plan that Republicans are trying to repeal large parts of (credit: Tina Kotek Facebook)
Leading Off
OR Ballot
A campaign to repeal major parts of a transportation funding plan championed by Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek announced Friday that it turned in almost 200,000 signatures to place a referendum on next year’s ballot.
This submission from No Tax Oregon means that the targeted parts of House Bill 3991, which includes tax increases to provide what the Kotek administration says is vital revenue for the Oregon Department of Transportation, will be paused rather than go into effect next month as intended.
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“If the incoming revenue from [the law] is paused, ODOT would face a significant funding gap, which could lead to cuts to operations and service levels across the transportation system,” a department spokesperson told the Oregon Capital Chronicle earlier this month.
Kotek herself cautioned her constituents “to think about signing on to a referendum that will take away our basic ability as Oregonians to keep our roads operating,” but many voters were not receptive.
Dirk VanderHart of Oregon Public Broadcasting instead reports that “few doubt” that No Tax Oregon has succeeded in collecting 78,116 valid signatures, a number that represents 4% of the votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. Election officials have until Jan. 29 to verify the group’s submission.
Barring a major surprise, the repeal measure, which requires a simple majority to pass, will appear on the same ballot as Kotek, who is seeking reelection in November.
VanderHart writes that leaders in the Democratic-led legislature could derail the referendum by repealing the law, known as HB 3991, when lawmakers reconvene in February. Republicans, though, oppose the idea because, while they’re trying to scrap large parts of the bill at the ballot box, they want to protect other sections of the legislation.
“That would be a really bad move,” said Republican state Rep. Ed Diehl, who is one of No Tax Oregon’s leaders. Diehl told VanderHart that he and his allies favor a provision of HB 3991 that removes an existing requirement for tolls around Portland, saying, “There’s all the language the truckers have fought for. That’s a tough move for them politically to backtrack on everything.”
Diehl is not the only prominent Republican legislator who hopes to put Democrats in a bind over the bill. State Sen. Christine Drazan, who is running for governor once again—three years after narrowly losing to Kotek—has argued that the higher taxes associated with the transportation funding plan are a key reason why voters should eject the incumbent.
“Government should live within its means,” Drazan, who is the frontrunner in the May 19 GOP primary, told KTVZ News last week. “Families across Oregon have had to make hard choices about what they can afford. Government should do the same.”
Kotek, though, has responded by blaming Drazan and her allies for the transportation cutbacks they’re predicting.
“The emergency funding that the Legislature provided to keep Oregon’s roads, bridges, and transit systems safe and working will be suspended immediately,” the governor’s office said in a statement after learning that key parts of HB 3991 would be paused.
“The Governor is committed to working with lawmakers of both parties, ODOT leadership, stakeholders, and local leaders to find a path forward,” the release continued. “The Governor’s guiding principle is to avoid, as much as possible, immediate service cuts that will impact Oregonians.”
It’s almost impossible to trust large media outlets owned by major corporations anymore. We’ve seen just how happily they’ve prostrated themselves before Trump, all to pad their bottom lines. The only answer is independent media—like The Downballot. The only thing you’ll ever get from us is the unvarnished truth about overlooked elections that are critical to righting our ship of state. Upgrade your subscription to support our unique work.
Clemons’ win also represented a massive overperformance compared to the top of the ticket. Last year, Kamala Harris carried the Louisville-based 37th District by a 52-47 spread, down from Joe Biden’s 54-44 win in 2020. But Clemons, an Army veteran and union leader, ran 42 points ahead of the presidential results—the fourth-best showing by a Democrat in a special election during Donald Trump’s second term.
Following Tuesday’s contest, Kentucky Republicans will hold a 32-6 advantage in the state Senate. However, in 65 special elections this year, Democrats are, on average, outperforming the presidential numbers by an average of 13.7 points, according to The Downballot’s continually updated tracker.
Senate
FL-Sen
Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, who suggested over the summer that she might run for a variety of different higher offices, now says she’s “strongly considering” a bid for Senate, the Florida Phoenix reports. Nixon, however, remains undecided and also told the Phoenix that she could seek a seat on the City Council in Jacksonville in 2027.
The only notable Democrat vying to take on Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is former Brevard County school board member Jennifer Jenkins, though former National Security Council advisor Alexander Vindman said he was looking at the race in May. However, Vindman, the twin brother of Virginia Rep. Eugene Vindman, does not appear to have commented since then.
MN-Sen
Former state GOP chair David Hann told the Minnesota Star Tribune this week that he’s considering a bid for the state’s open Senate seat and will decide “relatively soon.”
Republicans still lack a credible contender in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, though former sportscaster Michele Tafoya remains the subject of much attention—and perhaps the GOP’s only hope.
“If she doesn’t [run,] we’re screwed,” one unnamed Republican told the Star Tribune.
Indeed, there may not be many other options out there. Unnamed sources tell the paper that two Republicans who had been talked about as possible candidates, real estate agent Kathleen Fowke and state Rep. Jim Nash, have both decided not to run, though neither would-be candidate has said anything publicly.
Governors
CA-Gov
Billionaire investor Tom Steyer has already spent or reserved close to $16 million in ad time since launching his bid for California’s open governorship less than a month ago, AdImpact reports.
Steyer, who spent $250 million of his own money on an unsuccessful bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, is waging his expensive campaign with almost six months left to go before the busy top-two primary on June 2.
OH-Gov
Far-right social media personality Casey Putsch, who calls himself “Casey the Car Guy” on his YouTube channel, made a late entry into the Republican primary for Ohio’s open governorship on Tuesday.
Putsch has offered ceaseless vitriol for the GOP frontrunner, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, calling him (among other things) “total trash garbage” and an “Indian anchor baby” who “got his scholarship paid for by Soros money.”
On the front page of his campaign website, he also attacks the likely Democratic nominee, former state health director Amy Acton, as “Israel-first” (Acton is Jewish). Putsch has been happy to elevate antisemitic conspiracy theories more broadly, even aiming them at Donald Trump.
“I hate both political parties in the United States with the fiery burning passion of a thousand suns,” he said in one YouTube video. “I think Donald Trump is a big Israeli pussy. The Mossad and CIA are basically one, and the evil shadow governments that are controlling the world.”
House
CA-11
Former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim, whose name had come up as a potential candidate in the race to replace Nancy Pelosi, instead tells Politico that she’s “strongly considering” a bid for state insurance commissioner and has filed paperwork for a possible campaign.
CA-48
SEIU California, which Politico describes as the largest labor group in the state, has endorsed San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert as she seeks to oust Republican Rep. Darrell Issa. Von Wilpert is part of a large field of Democrats running in the newly competitive 48th District, which was a solidly Republican constituency until Proposition 50 redrew the lines.
NJ-07
Former Summit Councilman Greg Vartan on Tuesday dropped out of the race to take on Republican Rep. Tom Kean, though the Democratic primary remains packed. Vartan also sought to run against Kean last cycle, but he similarly ended that campaign before candidate filing closed.
Vartan’s departure still leaves eight Democrats in the hunt for New Jersey’s 7th District, a swingy district that, according to calculations by The Downballot, narrowly favored Donald Trump 50-48 last year. According to the New Jersey Globe, however, Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill carried the 7th by a 51-49 margin last month.
The June 2 primary roster consists of criminal justice professor Beth Adubato; Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett; attorney Vale Mendoza; former Department of Agriculture official Megan O’Rourke; businessman Michael Roth; physician Tina Shah; Somerset County Commissioner Sara Sooy; and businessman Brian Varela.
TX-18
Former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, one of two Democrats in the Jan. 31 special election runoff for Texas’ vacant 18th Congressional District, has earned the endorsement of state Rep. Jolanda Jones, who finished third in the first round of voting last month.
Edwards faces Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee for the seat previously held by the late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner. In November, Menefee won 29% of the vote while Edwards took 26% and Jones 19%, with the balance going to more than a dozen other candidates.
UT-01
Salt Lake City Council member Eva Lopez Chavez announced Monday that she was joining the busy June 23 Democratic primary for Utah’s revamped 1st Congressional District, which will become reliably blue under the state’s new congressional map.
Chavez served as a liaison for Mayor Erin Mendenhall’s administration and as chair of the Salt Lake Democratic Party before she was elected to the City Council in 2023 at the age of 27. That victory made Chavez the body’s youngest member, though that’s not the only way she’s stood out among her colleagues.
“I’m a Mexican lesbian shaping downtown, and queerness is a superpower,” she told the local publication Slug Mag this spring. “It gives you a lens on the world that most people only find through deep meditation or insight.”
Chavez is the fifth major Democrat to enter the race for what will be Utah’s first reliably Democratic House seat in modern times. The field includes former state Sen. Derek Kitchen, who, like Chavez, would be the state’s first LGBTQ member of Congress; former Rep. Ben McAdams, who received Mendenhall’s endorsement last month, and a pair of state senators, Nate Blouin and Kathleen Riebe.
Mayors & County Leaders
Washington, D.C. Mayor
Kenyan McDuffie, an independent member of the DC Council, announced on Tuesday that he would resign his post effective Jan. 5, a move that paves the way for him to run for mayor as a Democrat next year.
McDuffie has been weighing a bid to replace retiring Mayor Muriel Bowser, but his position on the Council is one of two that are, in effect, reserved for members who do not belong to the majority party, which has long been the Democratic Party. To join the all-important Democratic primary for mayor, therefore, McDuffie will need to re-register with the party, something he cannot do while serving on the Council in his current capacity.
In the likely event that McDuffie enters the race to succeed Bowser, he’ll face a fellow member of the Council, Janeese Lewis George, for the Democratic nod. Lewis George is a self-described democratic socialist and a vocal critic of Bowser’s, while the mayor recently said, “If you like me, you’re going to love Kenyan.”
Poll Pile
FL-Gov (R): Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Florida Fighters (pro-Jay Collins): Byron Donalds: 40, Jay Collins: 13, others: 8, undecided: 38. Collins is not currently running.
FL-Gov (R): The Tyson Group (R) for The American Promise: Donalds: 38, Collins: 9, James Fishback: 2, Paul Renner: 1, undecided: 49. (Nov.: Donalds: 43, Renner: 2, Collins: 1, Fishback: 1.
NY-Gov (D): Siena: Hochul (inc): 56, Antonio Delgado: 13. (Nov.: 56-16 Hochul.) The Republican primary portion sampled fewer than 300 respondents, which is the minimum required for inclusion in the Digest.
SC-01: Public Policy Polling (D) for Mac Deford: Mark Smith (R): 39, Mac Deford (D): 36. The release did not include numbers testing any other candidates.
Bots and GOP trolls on Xitter continue to downplay special elections going very blue, hitting the copium hard with comments like "What was the turnout for this? Nothing close to a presidential election" and "You're seriously comparing 42,000 voters to 5,000...at Christmas time..."
2026 is not going to go the way they want -- at all.
Bots and GOP trolls on Xitter continue to downplay special elections going very blue, hitting the copium hard with comments like "What was the turnout for this? Nothing close to a presidential election" and "You're seriously comparing 42,000 voters to 5,000...at Christmas time..."
2026 is not going to go the way they want -- at all.
Ryan Mackenzie just signed onto the Dem discharge petition for a 3 year clean extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies.
It now has 218 and is locked. Four republicans joined with all the Dems to force a vote on the measure:
Lawler
Fitz
Bresnahan
Mackenzie
They have forced a vote