DC Council could have such huge turnover out of its 13 members.
Those up in 2026:
-Phil Mendelson (chair, at-large) could be challenged by Christina Henderson (at-large)
-Kenyan McDuffie (at-large) as mentioned running for mayor in the Democratic primary and will resign early to need to be replaced by a non-Democrat.
-Anita Bonds (at-large) challenged by Oye Owolewa (shadow representative)
-Brianne Nadeau (ward 1) retiring. Numerous major candidates: Aparna Raj (DSA), Jackie Reyes-Yanes (former director of the Mayor's Office of Community Affairs) and three ANCs (Rashida Brown, Miguel Trindade Deramo and Brian Footer)
-Matt Frumin (ward 3) unopposed in primary.
-Zachary Parker (ward 5) unopposed in primary.
-Charles Allen (ward 6) some token primary challengers.
The rest technically not up until 2028:
-Janeese Lewis George (ward 4) also running in the Dem primary for mayor and would need to leave two years early if she wins the general.
-Robert White (at-large) or Brooke Pinto (ward 2) will almost certainly win the primary for DC delegate over Eleanor Norton. Whichever of them wins will have to leave two years early.
-Christina Henderson (at-large) as mentioned may challenge Mendelson directly in the general as the other independent. Bowser recently spread a rumor in a radio interview that Henderson could also run for mayor and/or that either potential campaign (mayor/chair) could be in the Dem primary, which would require her to leave the council early. I agree with the radio host who dismissed that out of hand as unlikely, but it's a possibility.
-Trayon White (ward 8) was expelled after winning reelection in 2024 and then re-won the special in 2025, but he could be expelled again or just outright sent to prison and open this seat up again.
-Wendell Felder (ward 7) barely won the Dem primary for his first term in 2024, but he should be fine until 2028.
Thread on McDuffie's special election process. DC Council will vote to appoint a successor ad interim in mid-January, with Mendelson indicating his preference for someone with city government experience before the spring budget season. Elissa Silverman (the progressive who McDuffie edged out in an upset in 2022 when he moved from his ward seat to at-large after his AG campaign was found ineligible) has apparently told Mendelson that she's interested in the interim appointment, but unsure if she'd run in the subsequent special election (likely at the same time as the regular primary on 6/16) or the regular general in November. Lisa Rice, who was a major sponsor of the ranked choice and open primaries referendum, may also be interested in at least the interim appointment.
Washington DC doesn't even have as much population as San Francisco yet it has two more members on the city council than San Francisco does in the Board of Supervisors.
Bots and GOP trolls on Xitter continue to downplay special elections going very blue, hitting the copium hard with comments like "What was the turnout for this? Nothing close to a presidential election" and "You're seriously comparing 42,000 voters to 5,000...at Christmas time..."
2026 is not going to go the way they want -- at all.
LOL, their claims about turnout aren't even true. Of the cities in California that I have data for, more than half saw Yes receive more than 80% of the votes that Harris got. 17 cities (most of which are heavily Hispanic) saw Yes receive more than 90% of Harris's votes. And one city, Bell (population 34,000, 94% Hispanic), saw Yes actually receive more votes than Harris.
I know that. The statewide elections in California and elsewhere last month are much more representative of what 2026 is going to be like than someone random state legislative special election, and the argument of the "bots and GOP trolls on Xitter" are emphatically untrue regarding turnout in those statewide elections.
In fact, it almost seems like there's an actual constituency in support of Democratic gerrymandering. There are eight cities in California that voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024, and Brian Dahle in 2022, but voted Yes this year: California City, Glendora, Fountain Valley, Westminster (Yes outperformed even Biden substantially among the Vietnamese), Barstow, Twentynine Palms, El Cajon, and Porterville.
Yes outperforming Biden in largely Vietnamese areas should have Republicans shaking. The 2016 Clinton Hispanic/Asian baseline might be coming back, except we also got Biden's numbers in the suburbs too now.
Sounds like the same argument that Dems on here and swing state project were making about special elections in 2009/2010. That and “all politics is local”, which is almost never the case in this polarized era. In special election underperformance after special election underperformance.
I would really love a 2010 sized shellacking next year, especially here in North Carolina. Republicans can ignore and use all the copium they want, but voters are PISSED off. And Rs are going to lose some seats they thought were safely red when some of their voters stay home or vote for Democrats out of spite.
Democrats in the blue states have got to wake up and realize they can promote saving tax money and boost voter turnout as well as increase the number of women and minorities elected to local offices if they pass combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections. In the states where citizens can put measures on the ballot by petition, Democrats and progressive independents should be putting that issue on the ballot.
"Promote saving tax money…" Would you please spell out what you mean by this? Do you simply mean the modest savings that can be achieved by combining elections?
Dan Newhouse of Wa-4, one of the last two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump left in the House, will retire. This isn’t particularly surprising given the heavy speculation he might retire last cycle.
Tiffany Smiley? I remember when some pundits were declaring her Senator in waiting in 2022 due to some close polls and the Great Red Wave that was soon to drown many Democrats even in blue states.
Then the actual votes were counted and she lost to Patty Murray by nearly 15 points.
I can be too optimistic at times but felt that way about Bennett and his "moderate" opponent that the media loved to talk up who lost by 14. Ended up being too pessimistic on the house races that year with Caraveo winning the 8th and Bobert hanging on by 537 votes.
Last night, the worse Democrat, Jaha Howard, beat the experienced progressive, Roger Bruce. Anyone have insights into why did Roger Bruce lost? Did he fail to campaign. Not make an impression on voters? Fail to attack his opponent, Jaha Howard, for his past extremist utterances?
(By the way, anyone have the turnout figure for this election?)
That seems to be what I see looking it up. Seems like there's a real anti-establishment bent among Dems in general lately. Could make next year's primaries interesting.
NEW and BREAKING: Harvard officials are secretly investigating two students over their roles in drawing scrutiny to the relationship between Jeffrey Epstein and the school’s former president, Larry Summers, according to three people briefed on the matter."
Any university that experiences this kind of growth in endowment, wealth and capacity, but does not expand the freshman class, keeping it the same, is not a place of higher learning. It is a hedge fund that offers classes.
Harvard and the over-endowed elite schools should either expand freshman enrollment to match their resources, or they should lose their tax free status.
I dislike a lot of the way elite higher ed operates (as someone who went to an Ivy plus undergrad and an ivy league grad school) but I think the populist critiques of them largely miss the mark. These are first and foremost research institutions, and research is extraordinarily expensive and basically infinitely scalable. Harvard, for its faults, conducts lifesaving research in a variety of fields and that's in large part because of the size of its endowment. Taxing these institutions like hedge funds both underestimates the amount of good they do for society writ large and the lack of any societal value that hedge funds provide. Blurring the lines between imperfect but directionally beneficial institutions and those that exist solely to enrich their employees, often to the detriment of everyone else, is fundamentally anti-progressive imo. Plus, the wealthy leaders of the universities do get taxed like hedge fund managers.
I think we should use the (very substantial) influence that progressive politics has over these institutions to push them in certain ways. They should drop legacy admissions and I think it makes sense to have them take a look at administrative bloat and costs of attendance. But the endowment itself isn't a bad thing anymore than the other large numbers that float around other powerful institutions.
not the state schools, or community colleges, or those actually helping the masses achieve education.
Harvard has become a networking playground for the children of the wealthy and well connected. and they could use that endowment to serve so, so many more poor people than they admit now, by expanding access to Harvard, eliminating or reducing legacies, etc. They choose not to.
On top of their recent cowardice re: Trump admin, there is plenty of reason and room to criticize Harvard, specifically.
Regarding turnout, I had a Georgia-related question. The two Democrats running in the PSC elections won HD-121 (the district with the recent special election that the Dem won) by big margins - 16 to 18 percent. Of course, those elections had very low turnout. But in that HD-121 special election, the Democrat won by only a 1.7% margin.
So I'm wondering - how did the turnout compare between those elections? Were there Democrats who voted in the November statewide elections but not in the HD-121 special? Or did the Republican base in the district at least partly wake up for the HD-121 special (though not enough to actually win it)?
It’s not perfect because it doesn’t show turnout by precinct and only shows whole counties, but the Georgia Secretary of State has turnout reports. Oconee County turnout was higher in the election last week compared to November. Athens turnout was about the same in both, around 27%. I don’t think this explains all the difference, but part of it. The Republican last week was still much better funded than Eric Gisler. UGA was in the midst of finals week.
I was trying to tell folks do NOT use the PSC elections as bellweathers for anything in GA, especially in the red districts where there was basically zero campaign or incentive for folks to show up solely for the GOP incumbents.
Also a lot of reliable R voters voted D as a one off to protest soaring electric rates. It really was a case of "we'll do something about your bills" vs "my opponent is woke". The Rs had ample funding but a worthless message.
Yep. 433 total right now, with MTG going early next year. So 3/5ths is 260 regardless and 2/3rds is 288-289 depending on if the vote is after/before she leaves.
The latter three probably are motivated in no small part by the election results last month in their districts. They are probably cooked next year anyhow.
That was largely because Delay gerrymandered his district so that it was mostly new to Stenholm and ended his advantage of people knowing him and how conservative he was.
I’ve shifted my thinking from a slight win for Fitzpatrick to a slight loss as time and damage from Trump’s administration piles up. Partisanship catches up to every single elected official representing an area at the same time they support the opposite party for president. It came for the conservative Democrats in 2010 and it’ll happen to Fitzpatrick too at some point. I think that will be this year and I really can’t believe that I believe it will happen given that he won his seat by 10 last year against a decently strong Democratic nominee.
It’s basic math for me, add a few points for a stronger candidate. Repeat a blue wave midterm (5-8 points). Make sure Democrats turn out in force against Trump and the king’s party to overwhelm any of the swing/mod voters who crossover “only for the incumbent Fitzpatrick”. It seems a fairly reasonable bet unless the economy magically teleports back to 2019.
Random side note in the opposite direction: If Golden had run again, I thought he’d lose in the midterms regardless of how Democrats did elsewhere. He only won last year by .6% and faced LePage the former Governor who won ME-02 by a lot. It’s in the same vein as above and I think those seats are both flipping to the opposite party. We’ll see what happens though in 2026.
I think it's likely that Fitzpatrick will lose in a Democratic wave, but there are usually exceptions, and he might be the one (or one of a few) this time.
Pennsylvania Republicans are terrified. I think the margins by which Neuman and Tsai won last month were a lot bigger than they expected.
And frankly, Bresnahan and Mackenzie are going to lose next year regardless of this petition. I strongly suspect Perry loses too. And if the wave is big enough, even Fitzpatrick might lose.
I'm curious if the rust belt (PA, WI, MI, MN) will regain Democratic legislative trifectas next year because of Trump. That would be an electoral shock to Republicans alone, along with losing the House.
Mackenzie and Bresnahan will lose, Perry will lose easily considering he's an underperformer, and Fitzpatrick will win but have a fight to keep his seat
I have Fitzpatrick as an underdog. Every Bucks incumbent Republican just lost reelection by double digits except the DA, and she still lost by over 8 points. I can’t imagine turnout will be much better for Republicans next year with Shapiro driving the top of the ticket.
I've decided to just accept the fact that Fitzpatrick and Valadao are going to be reelected, no matter how big the blue wave is, so the only surprises here on Election Day will be good ones.
The beginning of an unsolicited email from Graham Platner:
"Nothing pisses me off more than getting a fundraising text from Democrats talking about how they’re fighting fascism… Because it’s such B.S. We’re not idiots. Everyone knows most of them aren’t doing jack right now to fight back."
What Republicans has she donated to? At the city level? Or statewide?
This likely happened before the new UT-01 was formed. Many Democrats and Republicans in Utah work together and have a very cordial relationship, as former Congressman of the previous UT-04 Ben McAdams had when he was Mayor of Salt Lake County. McAdams by the way had Chavez as an endorsement but appears to have been forced to take it down as she is now running in the race.
I mean, it's really difficult to elect a Democrat into office statewide in Utah.
My main concern is not the donations but if Chavez truly has real firmly-held convictions in running in the UT-01 House race. If she has ulterior motives, that would be a problem. Right now, I'd like to see how her candidacy unfolds.
Cross-posting from The Downballot's Bluesky account. Rep. Bennie Thompson has a left primary challenger -- former Schumer/Warren counsel and attorney Evan Turnage. (Don't be fooled by the mention of Schumer -- a big part of his background is his work with Warren, and his platform is quite left.)
Now, I have no idea if this will even be relevant if/when SCOTUS murders the VRA, unless they do that after the filing deadline. Which, knowing this court, wouldn't surprise me. Still, worth noting for now at least.
Cross-posting once again from The Downballot's Bluesky (which I highly recommend those who are on Bluesky follow, there's news there that sometimes appears before the Morning Digests get posted.)
Matt Ortega, the digital communications director for Hillary 2016, is in. Not sure how I feel about this given my criticisms of how that campaign was run -- so I think I'll pass. (Hopefully Aisha Wahab will enter the race at some point.)
Anything to get Wahab to stop running the Housing Committee in the CA state senate. She's one of the most ardent NIMBYs there, so I'd be happy to see her in a position where she won't actively make the housing crisis worse.
I'd heard that about her. I brought it up on a separate Downballot thread, and I was told she'd evolved on the issue. I don't know how true that is, so I won't take sides.
Is there any legislative body in the United States other than the D.C. City Council that mandates a position for someone not belonging to the majority party?
In both Hartford, CT and Allegheny County, PA, Democrats have gotten around that by running progressive candidates either under third parties (like the Working Families Party) or as independents. Just this year, "independent" Alex Rose, a Democrat, won a seat on the Allegheny County Council that is set aside for a minority party. He defeated a Republican incumbent.
The Philadelphia City Council's charter ensures that two at large members are not in the majority party. Both of those are currently Working Families Party members. There's one Republican from a district (considered the "Leader of the Third Party") and everyone else is a Democrat.
ah I didn't know that. But the point generally that it looks like we're starting to hear talks about quite a few cabinet-level figures looking towards the exit is b/c of the difficulty of getting lackeys confirmed in 27.
Downballot news: Leftist WV delegate John Williams will run against Republican Sen. Mike Oliverio, in districts close to my home. Oliverio is a longtime lawmaker and former Democrat that unseated Rep. Mollohan in the 2010 primary but lost the general to Republican David McKinley.
Morgantown is split in 2 districts. This one is a swing seat (Oliverio was held to about 100 votes against Del. Barb Fleischauer in 2022) while I'm in the other one represented by Democrat Joey Garcia, which is safely blue.
I should clarify- the two districts are under the same map but the elections are in different years. WV has a weird system where 17/34 are up one cycle, then the other half the next. However, I consider Garcia my senator more than Oliverio because Garcia was also my delegate at one point
It stretches into Marion, which includes Fairmont, also pretty blue. Oliverio is from Morgantown, Garcia is from Fairmont. The reason the district is competitive is because most of Mon and Marion are rural, while Morgantown and Fairmont are urban dots.
She left elected office after her loss to Oliverio in 2022, which is ironically when he made his comeback campaign. She was succeeded by Republican Debbie Warner, wife of former statewide official Mac Warner, who was then succeeded by Republican David McCormick (no relation to the U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania), who holds the seat now.
I think Oliverio was on the county commission when I lived there. Seemed like a reasonable guy then. The scandals related to Mollohans kid getting a gift degree from WVU (iirc) seem to have contributed to a slow decline of the Univ furthered by Gordon Gee's delusional spending. Some sort of butterfly effect....
The former president of West Virginia University, who axed several key teaching departments (the entirety of foreign language...seriously, as well as a number of math positions) in order to spend money to create new executive positions (mostly to strengthen his own power as president).
As described in the story, to win a majority of the 120 member lower chamber in 2026, Dems will need to win all of their 47 safe, likely, and lean-Dem districts, all of the 7 toss-up districts, and 7 of 15 lean R districts.
I should add that the partisan lean of a district is that district's 2024 vote in statewide races compared to the statewide races as a whole (LG, AG, SoS, etc.) but the Gov race was not included. Civitas rated a seat "lean-R" when the seat was between R+2 and R+4. Thus, if we even do four points better in 2026 than in 2024, we have a solid shot.
Chances are VERY good almost every R in a D-leaning district (like Cotham, Pare, Lee, Barnes, Schiezelt, Zenger and Lambeth) loses in a D+6-10 environment -- losing the R supermajority in both houses for sure.
DC Council could have such huge turnover out of its 13 members.
Those up in 2026:
-Phil Mendelson (chair, at-large) could be challenged by Christina Henderson (at-large)
-Kenyan McDuffie (at-large) as mentioned running for mayor in the Democratic primary and will resign early to need to be replaced by a non-Democrat.
-Anita Bonds (at-large) challenged by Oye Owolewa (shadow representative)
-Brianne Nadeau (ward 1) retiring. Numerous major candidates: Aparna Raj (DSA), Jackie Reyes-Yanes (former director of the Mayor's Office of Community Affairs) and three ANCs (Rashida Brown, Miguel Trindade Deramo and Brian Footer)
-Matt Frumin (ward 3) unopposed in primary.
-Zachary Parker (ward 5) unopposed in primary.
-Charles Allen (ward 6) some token primary challengers.
The rest technically not up until 2028:
-Janeese Lewis George (ward 4) also running in the Dem primary for mayor and would need to leave two years early if she wins the general.
-Robert White (at-large) or Brooke Pinto (ward 2) will almost certainly win the primary for DC delegate over Eleanor Norton. Whichever of them wins will have to leave two years early.
-Christina Henderson (at-large) as mentioned may challenge Mendelson directly in the general as the other independent. Bowser recently spread a rumor in a radio interview that Henderson could also run for mayor and/or that either potential campaign (mayor/chair) could be in the Dem primary, which would require her to leave the council early. I agree with the radio host who dismissed that out of hand as unlikely, but it's a possibility.
-Trayon White (ward 8) was expelled after winning reelection in 2024 and then re-won the special in 2025, but he could be expelled again or just outright sent to prison and open this seat up again.
-Wendell Felder (ward 7) barely won the Dem primary for his first term in 2024, but he should be fine until 2028.
Thread on McDuffie's special election process. DC Council will vote to appoint a successor ad interim in mid-January, with Mendelson indicating his preference for someone with city government experience before the spring budget season. Elissa Silverman (the progressive who McDuffie edged out in an upset in 2022 when he moved from his ward seat to at-large after his AG campaign was found ineligible) has apparently told Mendelson that she's interested in the interim appointment, but unsure if she'd run in the subsequent special election (likely at the same time as the regular primary on 6/16) or the regular general in November. Lisa Rice, who was a major sponsor of the ranked choice and open primaries referendum, may also be interested in at least the interim appointment.
https://x.com/maustermuhle/status/2000958982396239886
https://x.com/AlexKomaDC/status/2000971683373453780
Anita Bonds is retiring
https://wjla.com/news/local/dc-council-anita-bonds-not-seeking-reelection-2026-oye-owolewa-retires-dc-at-large-race-after-bowser-announcement-drops-out-housing-committee-update-muriel-bowser
Oh wow!
Washington DC doesn't even have as much population as San Francisco yet it has two more members on the city council than San Francisco does in the Board of Supervisors.
I find this fascinating.
It’s about the same ratio of council members to residents that Chicago has for its aldermen.
Bots and GOP trolls on Xitter continue to downplay special elections going very blue, hitting the copium hard with comments like "What was the turnout for this? Nothing close to a presidential election" and "You're seriously comparing 42,000 voters to 5,000...at Christmas time..."
2026 is not going to go the way they want -- at all.
LOL, their claims about turnout aren't even true. Of the cities in California that I have data for, more than half saw Yes receive more than 80% of the votes that Harris got. 17 cities (most of which are heavily Hispanic) saw Yes receive more than 90% of Harris's votes. And one city, Bell (population 34,000, 94% Hispanic), saw Yes actually receive more votes than Harris.
The comments I was referring to was yesterday's special legislative election in Kentucky.
I know that. The statewide elections in California and elsewhere last month are much more representative of what 2026 is going to be like than someone random state legislative special election, and the argument of the "bots and GOP trolls on Xitter" are emphatically untrue regarding turnout in those statewide elections.
I think we're in agreement here.
In fact, it almost seems like there's an actual constituency in support of Democratic gerrymandering. There are eight cities in California that voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024, and Brian Dahle in 2022, but voted Yes this year: California City, Glendora, Fountain Valley, Westminster (Yes outperformed even Biden substantially among the Vietnamese), Barstow, Twentynine Palms, El Cajon, and Porterville.
Yes outperforming Biden in largely Vietnamese areas should have Republicans shaking. The 2016 Clinton Hispanic/Asian baseline might be coming back, except we also got Biden's numbers in the suburbs too now.
Sounds like the same argument that Dems on here and swing state project were making about special elections in 2009/2010. That and “all politics is local”, which is almost never the case in this polarized era. In special election underperformance after special election underperformance.
I would really love a 2010 sized shellacking next year, especially here in North Carolina. Republicans can ignore and use all the copium they want, but voters are PISSED off. And Rs are going to lose some seats they thought were safely red when some of their voters stay home or vote for Democrats out of spite.
Well, they live their life on X. Nuff said.
Democrats in the blue states have got to wake up and realize they can promote saving tax money and boost voter turnout as well as increase the number of women and minorities elected to local offices if they pass combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections. In the states where citizens can put measures on the ballot by petition, Democrats and progressive independents should be putting that issue on the ballot.
"Promote saving tax money…" Would you please spell out what you mean by this? Do you simply mean the modest savings that can be achieved by combining elections?
Consolidating elections saves money, I assume is the point.
Dan Newhouse of Wa-4, one of the last two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump left in the House, will retire. This isn’t particularly surprising given the heavy speculation he might retire last cycle.
https://x.com/RepNewhouse/status/2001291310146158666
The bench here for Rs is deep but not tooooo Trumpy (somehow) so we can probably got somebody better then Sessler or Smiley in an all-R runoff
Tiffany Smiley? I remember when some pundits were declaring her Senator in waiting in 2022 due to some close polls and the Great Red Wave that was soon to drown many Democrats even in blue states.
Then the actual votes were counted and she lost to Patty Murray by nearly 15 points.
I can be too optimistic at times but felt that way about Bennett and his "moderate" opponent that the media loved to talk up who lost by 14. Ended up being too pessimistic on the house races that year with Caraveo winning the 8th and Bobert hanging on by 537 votes.
Please don't let Jared Sessler be his successor
Already his X feed is being flooded with negative comments, the first one which is attacking him for voting to impeach Trump.
John Duresky is the one current Democratic candidate. Combat Veteran who did a tour in Iraq.
https://johnduresky4congress.com/
He endorsed Trump in 2024, so he can rot with the rest of them.
Last night, the worse Democrat, Jaha Howard, beat the experienced progressive, Roger Bruce. Anyone have insights into why did Roger Bruce lost? Did he fail to campaign. Not make an impression on voters? Fail to attack his opponent, Jaha Howard, for his past extremist utterances?
(By the way, anyone have the turnout figure for this election?)
"Howard "characterized himself as an anti-establishment candidate who wants to shake up business as usual" per
@CapitalBNews."
https://x.com/ZacharyDonnini/status/2001116673789596006?s=20
That seems to be what I see looking it up. Seems like there's a real anti-establishment bent among Dems in general lately. Could make next year's primaries interesting.
"Michael S. Schmidt
@nytmike
NEW and BREAKING: Harvard officials are secretly investigating two students over their roles in drawing scrutiny to the relationship between Jeffrey Epstein and the school’s former president, Larry Summers, according to three people briefed on the matter."
https://x.com/nytmike/status/2001247945937838121?s=20
I don't really understand what kompromat, Larry Summers has on the elites. One of the worst Democrats of all time.
Ah. So any good will that Harvard had for not caving to Trump earlier this year - they're flushing it down the drain.
Any university that experiences this kind of growth in endowment, wealth and capacity, but does not expand the freshman class, keeping it the same, is not a place of higher learning. It is a hedge fund that offers classes.
Harvard and the over-endowed elite schools should either expand freshman enrollment to match their resources, or they should lose their tax free status.
I dislike a lot of the way elite higher ed operates (as someone who went to an Ivy plus undergrad and an ivy league grad school) but I think the populist critiques of them largely miss the mark. These are first and foremost research institutions, and research is extraordinarily expensive and basically infinitely scalable. Harvard, for its faults, conducts lifesaving research in a variety of fields and that's in large part because of the size of its endowment. Taxing these institutions like hedge funds both underestimates the amount of good they do for society writ large and the lack of any societal value that hedge funds provide. Blurring the lines between imperfect but directionally beneficial institutions and those that exist solely to enrich their employees, often to the detriment of everyone else, is fundamentally anti-progressive imo. Plus, the wealthy leaders of the universities do get taxed like hedge fund managers.
I wish I could like this comment a thousand times. Attacking higher education is not a great look for Democrats...
I think we should use the (very substantial) influence that progressive politics has over these institutions to push them in certain ways. They should drop legacy admissions and I think it makes sense to have them take a look at administrative bloat and costs of attendance. But the endowment itself isn't a bad thing anymore than the other large numbers that float around other powerful institutions.
Tell MGP that, with her "we've been listening too much to the faculty lounge" b.s.
not the state schools, or community colleges, or those actually helping the masses achieve education.
Harvard has become a networking playground for the children of the wealthy and well connected. and they could use that endowment to serve so, so many more poor people than they admit now, by expanding access to Harvard, eliminating or reducing legacies, etc. They choose not to.
On top of their recent cowardice re: Trump admin, there is plenty of reason and room to criticize Harvard, specifically.
There's lots of room to criticize it, but where we part company is "they should lose their tax free status."
Regarding turnout, I had a Georgia-related question. The two Democrats running in the PSC elections won HD-121 (the district with the recent special election that the Dem won) by big margins - 16 to 18 percent. Of course, those elections had very low turnout. But in that HD-121 special election, the Democrat won by only a 1.7% margin.
So I'm wondering - how did the turnout compare between those elections? Were there Democrats who voted in the November statewide elections but not in the HD-121 special? Or did the Republican base in the district at least partly wake up for the HD-121 special (though not enough to actually win it)?
It’s not perfect because it doesn’t show turnout by precinct and only shows whole counties, but the Georgia Secretary of State has turnout reports. Oconee County turnout was higher in the election last week compared to November. Athens turnout was about the same in both, around 27%. I don’t think this explains all the difference, but part of it. The Republican last week was still much better funded than Eric Gisler. UGA was in the midst of finals week.
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
There could've also been some Ind/GOP voters angry about energy costs but otherwise down-the-line voters on lege issues.
I was trying to tell folks do NOT use the PSC elections as bellweathers for anything in GA, especially in the red districts where there was basically zero campaign or incentive for folks to show up solely for the GOP incumbents.
Also a lot of reliable R voters voted D as a one off to protest soaring electric rates. It really was a case of "we'll do something about your bills" vs "my opponent is woke". The Rs had ample funding but a worthless message.
Ryan Mackenzie just signed onto the Dem discharge petition for a 3 year clean extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies.
It now has 218 and is locked. Four republicans joined with all the Dems to force a vote on the measure:
Lawler
Fitz
Bresnahan
Mackenzie
They have forced a vote
Well, it is dubious in the Senate, but passing one chamber will help.
If it gets north of, say, 240 votes in the House, it may have a chance in the Senate.
60% of the current House is what, 258-9?
Two thirds would be 289-ish?
Yep. 433 total right now, with MTG going early next year. So 3/5ths is 260 regardless and 2/3rds is 288-289 depending on if the vote is after/before she leaves.
The latter three probably are motivated in no small part by the election results last month in their districts. They are probably cooked next year anyhow.
I don’t know about Fitzpatrick
After all the Bucks County R incumbents got destroyed with minimal ticket-splitting, I’d throw him in there too.
Yeah, he somehow seems to keep surviving. Maybe next year partisanship will prove to be too strong but I have my doubts...he's pretty entrenched
We don't know, but remember Stenholm in Texas, who just kept winning until the final time, when he lost big?
That was largely because Delay gerrymandered his district so that it was mostly new to Stenholm and ended his advantage of people knowing him and how conservative he was.
Partly true, but had he not beaten a gerrymander before?
No prior to the Delaymander he had a district where almost all the voters had been familiar with him and voting for him for over 20 years.
No, 91 was a Democratic gerrymander. 2002 the legislature deadlocked and it was ran on a incumbent protection judicial map.
Stenholm’s district was like 70% Republican at the top of
the ticket by the time he lost. PA-01 only voted for Harris by like a point.
I’ve shifted my thinking from a slight win for Fitzpatrick to a slight loss as time and damage from Trump’s administration piles up. Partisanship catches up to every single elected official representing an area at the same time they support the opposite party for president. It came for the conservative Democrats in 2010 and it’ll happen to Fitzpatrick too at some point. I think that will be this year and I really can’t believe that I believe it will happen given that he won his seat by 10 last year against a decently strong Democratic nominee.
It’s basic math for me, add a few points for a stronger candidate. Repeat a blue wave midterm (5-8 points). Make sure Democrats turn out in force against Trump and the king’s party to overwhelm any of the swing/mod voters who crossover “only for the incumbent Fitzpatrick”. It seems a fairly reasonable bet unless the economy magically teleports back to 2019.
Random side note in the opposite direction: If Golden had run again, I thought he’d lose in the midterms regardless of how Democrats did elsewhere. He only won last year by .6% and faced LePage the former Governor who won ME-02 by a lot. It’s in the same vein as above and I think those seats are both flipping to the opposite party. We’ll see what happens though in 2026.
I think it's likely that Fitzpatrick will lose in a Democratic wave, but there are usually exceptions, and he might be the one (or one of a few) this time.
Pennsylvania Republicans are terrified. I think the margins by which Neuman and Tsai won last month were a lot bigger than they expected.
And frankly, Bresnahan and Mackenzie are going to lose next year regardless of this petition. I strongly suspect Perry loses too. And if the wave is big enough, even Fitzpatrick might lose.
I'm curious if the rust belt (PA, WI, MI, MN) will regain Democratic legislative trifectas next year because of Trump. That would be an electoral shock to Republicans alone, along with losing the House.
Mackenzie and Bresnahan will lose, Perry will lose easily considering he's an underperformer, and Fitzpatrick will win but have a fight to keep his seat
I have Fitzpatrick as an underdog. Every Bucks incumbent Republican just lost reelection by double digits except the DA, and she still lost by over 8 points. I can’t imagine turnout will be much better for Republicans next year with Shapiro driving the top of the ticket.
I've decided to just accept the fact that Fitzpatrick and Valadao are going to be reelected, no matter how big the blue wave is, so the only surprises here on Election Day will be good ones.
I mean, Valadao lost in 2018 to a genuinely dire opponent in a less blue (in 2016 and 2020) district, I doubt he wins this time.
Yeah I'm actually surprised, because going off the lessons of past wave elections they are doomed regardless.
This shows how shitty of a House Speaker Johnson is.
The beginning of an unsolicited email from Graham Platner:
"Nothing pisses me off more than getting a fundraising text from Democrats talking about how they’re fighting fascism… Because it’s such B.S. We’re not idiots. Everyone knows most of them aren’t doing jack right now to fight back."
He annoys me so much.
That post wasn't supposed to be a reply.
I'm glad you posted it! Maybe repeat it on Thursday as It's not time-dependent.
Utah's Eva Lopez Chavez is trying to use identity politics to obscure the fact that she donated to Republicans, including recently.
Unlikely to win
Agreed, although my main concern is that her running to the left may divide the left vote with Nate Blouin and allow Ben McAdams to win.
I'd rather have a pro life Democrat than a Republican donor
Wasn't Ben McAdams anti-abortion though?
My mistake
What Republicans has she donated to? At the city level? Or statewide?
This likely happened before the new UT-01 was formed. Many Democrats and Republicans in Utah work together and have a very cordial relationship, as former Congressman of the previous UT-04 Ben McAdams had when he was Mayor of Salt Lake County. McAdams by the way had Chavez as an endorsement but appears to have been forced to take it down as she is now running in the race.
I mean, it's really difficult to elect a Democrat into office statewide in Utah.
My main concern is not the donations but if Chavez truly has real firmly-held convictions in running in the UT-01 House race. If she has ulterior motives, that would be a problem. Right now, I'd like to see how her candidacy unfolds.
https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2025/12/15/eva-lopez-chavez-announces-run/
MS-2:
https://bsky.app/profile/the-downballot.com/post/3ma6qqq7cxc2h
Cross-posting from The Downballot's Bluesky account. Rep. Bennie Thompson has a left primary challenger -- former Schumer/Warren counsel and attorney Evan Turnage. (Don't be fooled by the mention of Schumer -- a big part of his background is his work with Warren, and his platform is quite left.)
Now, I have no idea if this will even be relevant if/when SCOTUS murders the VRA, unless they do that after the filing deadline. Which, knowing this court, wouldn't surprise me. Still, worth noting for now at least.
Bennie Thompson is a decently left person. I don't see why this would hurt him.
He's 77.
If he's capable of doing his job that isn't an issue, though I do think his tenure has been too long
CA-14:
bsky.app/profile/the-downballot.com/post/3ma6qqq7cxc2h
Cross-posting once again from The Downballot's Bluesky (which I highly recommend those who are on Bluesky follow, there's news there that sometimes appears before the Morning Digests get posted.)
Matt Ortega, the digital communications director for Hillary 2016, is in. Not sure how I feel about this given my criticisms of how that campaign was run -- so I think I'll pass. (Hopefully Aisha Wahab will enter the race at some point.)
It's strange how that race hasn't really attracted a lot of big names. Is it because many are expecting Wahab to run?
If I never have to hear from Mook and Co. again, ill be ecstatic.
Anything to get Wahab to stop running the Housing Committee in the CA state senate. She's one of the most ardent NIMBYs there, so I'd be happy to see her in a position where she won't actively make the housing crisis worse.
I'd heard that about her. I brought it up on a separate Downballot thread, and I was told she'd evolved on the issue. I don't know how true that is, so I won't take sides.
Is there any legislative body in the United States other than the D.C. City Council that mandates a position for someone not belonging to the majority party?
Plenty of city or county councils do that.
In both Hartford, CT and Allegheny County, PA, Democrats have gotten around that by running progressive candidates either under third parties (like the Working Families Party) or as independents. Just this year, "independent" Alex Rose, a Democrat, won a seat on the Allegheny County Council that is set aside for a minority party. He defeated a Republican incumbent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Rose_(politician)
The Philadelphia City Council's charter ensures that two at large members are not in the majority party. Both of those are currently Working Families Party members. There's one Republican from a district (considered the "Leader of the Third Party") and everyone else is a Democrat.
That's a good use for the Working Families Party!
Texas Democratic Party has fielded a candidate for EVERY downballot seat up for (re) election next year for the first time ever.
https://www.texastribune.org/2025/12/17/texas-democrats-down-ballot-2026/
FBI "deputy director"/conspiracy theorist Dan Bongino is leaving early next year, according to MSNOW.
Patel is likely not far behind, which is likely a deck-clearing exercise to let Andrew Bailey just run the whole thing
Both of them are idiots and incompetent at their respective jobs.
They should have never been nominated in the first place.
They almost certainly want to get new people in before the midterms, when it's possible Murkowski is the deciding vote on nominations.
Deputy Director is a direct staff appointment by the Director, so the Senate's unfortunately not involved.
ah I didn't know that. But the point generally that it looks like we're starting to hear talks about quite a few cabinet-level figures looking towards the exit is b/c of the difficulty of getting lackeys confirmed in 27.
Downballot news: Leftist WV delegate John Williams will run against Republican Sen. Mike Oliverio, in districts close to my home. Oliverio is a longtime lawmaker and former Democrat that unseated Rep. Mollohan in the 2010 primary but lost the general to Republican David McKinley.
There are leftists in West Virginia?!?
This district includes Morgantown IIRC, so if there's any place in WV where a clearly progressive approach will win that's probably it.
Morgantown is split in 2 districts. This one is a swing seat (Oliverio was held to about 100 votes against Del. Barb Fleischauer in 2022) while I'm in the other one represented by Democrat Joey Garcia, which is safely blue.
I should clarify- the two districts are under the same map but the elections are in different years. WV has a weird system where 17/34 are up one cycle, then the other half the next. However, I consider Garcia my senator more than Oliverio because Garcia was also my delegate at one point
The county though is Monongalia County, right?
I recall this county was narrowly won by Trump back in 2020. This could account as to why Morgantown isn't completely blue.
It stretches into Marion, which includes Fairmont, also pretty blue. Oliverio is from Morgantown, Garcia is from Fairmont. The reason the district is competitive is because most of Mon and Marion are rural, while Morgantown and Fairmont are urban dots.
Fleischauer is still around too? WV seriously needs some new blood
She left elected office after her loss to Oliverio in 2022, which is ironically when he made his comeback campaign. She was succeeded by Republican Debbie Warner, wife of former statewide official Mac Warner, who was then succeeded by Republican David McCormick (no relation to the U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania), who holds the seat now.
I'm one of them
And we love you for that.
But as the old joke goes...The leftist society of WV meets in an old phone booth because
1. There's plenty of room
2. It's never in use
;)
I think Oliverio was on the county commission when I lived there. Seemed like a reasonable guy then. The scandals related to Mollohans kid getting a gift degree from WVU (iirc) seem to have contributed to a slow decline of the Univ furthered by Gordon Gee's delusional spending. Some sort of butterfly effect....
It's time for control to change over. A longtime Republican incumbent won't help that. I respect him but I respect Williams more.
For sure
Who is Gordon Gee and what was he spending on?
The former president of West Virginia University, who axed several key teaching departments (the entirety of foreign language...seriously, as well as a number of math positions) in order to spend money to create new executive positions (mostly to strengthen his own power as president).
That's positively Trumpian in its corruption and sabotage of education.
He happens to be a Republican donor and is friends with Sen. Jon Husted
ICYMI, the 2026 Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) of the NC state house and state senate districts was recently released. A link to the files can be found here: https://www.johnlocke.org/introducing-the-2026-civitas-partisan-index/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
As described in the story, to win a majority of the 120 member lower chamber in 2026, Dems will need to win all of their 47 safe, likely, and lean-Dem districts, all of the 7 toss-up districts, and 7 of 15 lean R districts.
It's doable, for sure.
I should add that the partisan lean of a district is that district's 2024 vote in statewide races compared to the statewide races as a whole (LG, AG, SoS, etc.) but the Gov race was not included. Civitas rated a seat "lean-R" when the seat was between R+2 and R+4. Thus, if we even do four points better in 2026 than in 2024, we have a solid shot.
Chances are VERY good almost every R in a D-leaning district (like Cotham, Pare, Lee, Barnes, Schiezelt, Zenger and Lambeth) loses in a D+6-10 environment -- losing the R supermajority in both houses for sure.