DC Council could have such huge turnover out of its 13 members.
Those up in 2026:
-Phil Mendelson (chair, at-large) could be challenged by Christina Henderson (at-large)
-Kenyan McDuffie (at-large) as mentioned running for mayor in the Democratic primary and will resign early to need to be replaced by a non-Democrat.
-Anita Bonds (at-large) challenged by Oye Owolewa (shadow representative)
-Brianne Nadeau (ward 1) retiring. Numerous major candidates: Aparna Raj (DSA), Jackie Reyes-Yanes (former director of the Mayor's Office of Community Affairs) and three ANCs (Rashida Brown, Miguel Trindade Deramo and Brian Footer)
-Matt Frumin (ward 3) unopposed in primary.
-Zachary Parker (ward 5) unopposed in primary.
-Charles Allen (ward 6) some token primary challengers.
The rest technically not up until 2028:
-Janeese Lewis George (ward 4) also running in the Dem primary for mayor and would need to leave two years early if she wins the general.
-Robert White (at-large) or Brooke Pinto (ward 2) will almost certainly win the primary for DC delegate over Eleanor Norton. Whichever of them wins will have to leave two years early.
-Christina Henderson (at-large) as mentioned may challenge Mendelson directly in the general as the other independent. Bowser recently spread a rumor in a radio interview that Henderson could also run for mayor and/or that either potential campaign (mayor/chair) could be in the Dem primary, which would require her to leave the council early. I agree with the radio host who dismissed that out of hand as unlikely, but it's a possibility.
-Trayon White (ward 8) was expelled after winning reelection in 2024 and then re-won the special in 2025, but he could be expelled again or just outright sent to prison and open this seat up again.
-Wendell Felder (ward 7) barely won the Dem primary for his first term in 2024, but he should be fine until 2028.
Thread on McDuffie's special election process. DC Council will vote to appoint a successor ad interim in mid-January, with Mendelson indicating his preference for someone with city government experience before the spring budget season. Elissa Silverman (the progressive who McDuffie edged out in an upset in 2022 when he moved from his ward seat to at-large after his AG campaign was found ineligible) has apparently told Mendelson that she's interested in the interim appointment, but unsure if she'd run in the subsequent special election (likely at the same time as the regular primary on 6/16) or the regular general in November. Lisa Rice, who was a major sponsor of the ranked choice and open primaries referendum, may also be interested in at least the interim appointment.
Bots and GOP trolls on Xitter continue to downplay special elections going very blue, hitting the copium hard with comments like "What was the turnout for this? Nothing close to a presidential election" and "You're seriously comparing 42,000 voters to 5,000...at Christmas time..."
2026 is not going to go the way they want -- at all.
LOL, their claims about turnout aren't even true. Of the cities in California that I have data for, more than half saw Yes receive more than 80% of the votes that Harris got. 17 cities (most of which are heavily Hispanic) saw Yes receive more than 90% of Harris's votes. And one city, Bell (population 34,000, 94% Hispanic), saw Yes actually receive more votes than Harris.
I know that. The statewide elections in California and elsewhere last month are much more representative of what 2026 is going to be like than someone random state legislative special election, and the argument of the "bots and GOP trolls on Xitter" are emphatically untrue regarding turnout in those statewide elections.
In fact, it almost seems like there's an actual constituency in support of Democratic gerrymandering. There are eight cities in California that voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024, and Brian Dahle in 2022, but voted Yes this year: California City, Glendora, Fountain Valley, Westminster (Yes outperformed even Biden substantially among the Vietnamese), Barstow, Twentynine Palms, El Cajon, and Porterville.
Sounds like the same argument that Dems on here and swing state project were making about special elections in 2009/2010. That and “all politics is local”, which is almost never the case in this polarized era. In special election underperformance after special election underperformance.
I would really love a 2010 sized shellacking next year, especially here in North Carolina. Republicans can ignore and use all the copium they want, but voters are PISSED off. And Rs are going to lose some seats they thought were safely red when some of their voters stay home or vote for Democrats out of spite.
Democrats in the blue states have got to wake up and realize they can promote saving tax money and boost voter turnout as well as increase the number of women and minorities elected to local offices if they pass combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections. In the states where citizens can put measures on the ballot by petition, Democrats and progressive independents should be putting that issue on the ballot.
"Promote saving tax money…" Would you please spell out what you mean by this? Do you simply mean the modest savings that can be achieved by combining elections?
Dan Newhouse of Wa-4, one of the last two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump left in the House, will retire. This isn’t particularly surprising given the heavy speculation he might retire last cycle.
Last night, the worse Democrat, Jaha Howard, beat the experienced progressive, Roger Bruce. Anyone have insights into why did Roger Bruce lost? Did he fail to campaign. Not make an impression on voters? Fail to attack his opponent, Jaha Howard, for his past extremist utterances?
(By the way, anyone have the turnout figure for this election?)
NEW and BREAKING: Harvard officials are secretly investigating two students over their roles in drawing scrutiny to the relationship between Jeffrey Epstein and the school’s former president, Larry Summers, according to three people briefed on the matter."
Regarding turnout, I had a Georgia-related question. The two Democrats running in the PSC elections won HD-121 (the district with the recent special election that the Dem won) by big margins - 16 to 18 percent. Of course, those elections had very low turnout. But in that HD-121 special election, the Democrat won by only a 1.7% margin.
So I'm wondering - how did the turnout compare between those elections? Were there Democrats who voted in the November statewide elections but not in the HD-121 special? Or did the Republican base in the district at least partly wake up for the HD-121 special (though not enough to actually win it)?
It’s not perfect because it doesn’t show turnout by precinct and only shows whole counties, but the Georgia Secretary of State has turnout reports. Oconee County turnout was higher in the election last week compared to November. Athens turnout was about the same in both, around 27%. I don’t think this explains all the difference, but part of it. The Republican last week was still much better funded than Eric Gisler. UGA was in the midst of finals week.
The latter three probably are motivated in no small part by the election results last month in their districts. They are probably cooked next year anyhow.
Pennsylvania Republicans are terrified. I think the margins by which Neuman and Tsai won last month were a lot bigger than they expected.
And frankly, Bresnahan and Mackenzie are going to lose next year regardless of this petition. I strongly suspect Perry loses too. And if the wave is big enough, even Fitzpatrick might lose.
I'm curious if the rust belt (PA, WI, MI, MN) will regain Democratic legislative trifectas next year because of Trump. That would be an electoral shock to Republicans alone, along with losing the House.
Mackenzie and Bresnahan will lose, Perry will lose easily considering he's an underperformer, and Fitzpatrick will win but have a fight to keep his seat
I have Fitzpatrick as an underdog. Every Bucks incumbent Republican just lost reelection by double digits except the DA, and she still lost by over 8 points. I can’t imagine turnout will be much better for Republicans next year with Shapiro driving the top of the ticket.
Cross-posting from The Downballot's Bluesky account. Rep. Bennie Thompson has a left primary challenger -- former Schumer/Warren counsel and attorney Evan Turnage. (Don't be fooled by the mention of Schumer -- a big part of his background is his work with Warren, and his platform is quite left.)
Now, I have no idea if this will even be relevant if/when SCOTUS murders the VRA, unless they do that after the filing deadline. Which, knowing this court, wouldn't surprise me. Still, worth noting for now at least.
Cross-posting once again from The Downballot's Bluesky (which I highly recommend those who are on Bluesky follow, there's news there that sometimes appears before the Morning Digests get posted.)
Matt Ortega, the digital communications director for Hillary 2016, is in. Not sure how I feel about this given my criticisms of how that campaign was run -- so I think I'll pass. (Hopefully Aisha Wahab will enter the race at some point.)
Is there any legislative body in the United States other than the D.C. City Council that mandates a position for someone not belonging to the majority party?
In both Hartford, CT and Allegheny County, PA, Democrats have gotten around that by running progressive candidates either under third parties (like the Working Families Party) or as independents. Just this year, "independent" Alex Rose, a Democrat, won a seat on the Allegheny County Council that is set aside for a minority party. He defeated a Republican incumbent.
DC Council could have such huge turnover out of its 13 members.
Those up in 2026:
-Phil Mendelson (chair, at-large) could be challenged by Christina Henderson (at-large)
-Kenyan McDuffie (at-large) as mentioned running for mayor in the Democratic primary and will resign early to need to be replaced by a non-Democrat.
-Anita Bonds (at-large) challenged by Oye Owolewa (shadow representative)
-Brianne Nadeau (ward 1) retiring. Numerous major candidates: Aparna Raj (DSA), Jackie Reyes-Yanes (former director of the Mayor's Office of Community Affairs) and three ANCs (Rashida Brown, Miguel Trindade Deramo and Brian Footer)
-Matt Frumin (ward 3) unopposed in primary.
-Zachary Parker (ward 5) unopposed in primary.
-Charles Allen (ward 6) some token primary challengers.
The rest technically not up until 2028:
-Janeese Lewis George (ward 4) also running in the Dem primary for mayor and would need to leave two years early if she wins the general.
-Robert White (at-large) or Brooke Pinto (ward 2) will almost certainly win the primary for DC delegate over Eleanor Norton. Whichever of them wins will have to leave two years early.
-Christina Henderson (at-large) as mentioned may challenge Mendelson directly in the general as the other independent. Bowser recently spread a rumor in a radio interview that Henderson could also run for mayor and/or that either potential campaign (mayor/chair) could be in the Dem primary, which would require her to leave the council early. I agree with the radio host who dismissed that out of hand as unlikely, but it's a possibility.
-Trayon White (ward 8) was expelled after winning reelection in 2024 and then re-won the special in 2025, but he could be expelled again or just outright sent to prison and open this seat up again.
-Wendell Felder (ward 7) barely won the Dem primary for his first term in 2024, but he should be fine until 2028.
Thread on McDuffie's special election process. DC Council will vote to appoint a successor ad interim in mid-January, with Mendelson indicating his preference for someone with city government experience before the spring budget season. Elissa Silverman (the progressive who McDuffie edged out in an upset in 2022 when he moved from his ward seat to at-large after his AG campaign was found ineligible) has apparently told Mendelson that she's interested in the interim appointment, but unsure if she'd run in the subsequent special election (likely at the same time as the regular primary on 6/16) or the regular general in November. Lisa Rice, who was a major sponsor of the ranked choice and open primaries referendum, may also be interested in at least the interim appointment.
https://x.com/maustermuhle/status/2000958982396239886
https://x.com/AlexKomaDC/status/2000971683373453780
Anita Bonds is retiring
https://wjla.com/news/local/dc-council-anita-bonds-not-seeking-reelection-2026-oye-owolewa-retires-dc-at-large-race-after-bowser-announcement-drops-out-housing-committee-update-muriel-bowser
Oh wow!
Bots and GOP trolls on Xitter continue to downplay special elections going very blue, hitting the copium hard with comments like "What was the turnout for this? Nothing close to a presidential election" and "You're seriously comparing 42,000 voters to 5,000...at Christmas time..."
2026 is not going to go the way they want -- at all.
LOL, their claims about turnout aren't even true. Of the cities in California that I have data for, more than half saw Yes receive more than 80% of the votes that Harris got. 17 cities (most of which are heavily Hispanic) saw Yes receive more than 90% of Harris's votes. And one city, Bell (population 34,000, 94% Hispanic), saw Yes actually receive more votes than Harris.
The comments I was referring to was yesterday's special legislative election in Kentucky.
I know that. The statewide elections in California and elsewhere last month are much more representative of what 2026 is going to be like than someone random state legislative special election, and the argument of the "bots and GOP trolls on Xitter" are emphatically untrue regarding turnout in those statewide elections.
I think we're in agreement here.
In fact, it almost seems like there's an actual constituency in support of Democratic gerrymandering. There are eight cities in California that voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024, and Brian Dahle in 2022, but voted Yes this year: California City, Glendora, Fountain Valley, Westminster (Yes outperformed even Biden substantially among the Vietnamese), Barstow, Twentynine Palms, El Cajon, and Porterville.
Sounds like the same argument that Dems on here and swing state project were making about special elections in 2009/2010. That and “all politics is local”, which is almost never the case in this polarized era. In special election underperformance after special election underperformance.
I would really love a 2010 sized shellacking next year, especially here in North Carolina. Republicans can ignore and use all the copium they want, but voters are PISSED off. And Rs are going to lose some seats they thought were safely red when some of their voters stay home or vote for Democrats out of spite.
Democrats in the blue states have got to wake up and realize they can promote saving tax money and boost voter turnout as well as increase the number of women and minorities elected to local offices if they pass combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections. In the states where citizens can put measures on the ballot by petition, Democrats and progressive independents should be putting that issue on the ballot.
"Promote saving tax money…" Would you please spell out what you mean by this? Do you simply mean the modest savings that can be achieved by combining elections?
Consolidating elections saves money, I assume is the point.
Dan Newhouse of Wa-4, one of the last two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump left in the House, will retire. This isn’t particularly surprising given the heavy speculation he might retire last cycle.
https://x.com/RepNewhouse/status/2001291310146158666
The bench here for Rs is deep but not tooooo Trumpy (somehow) so we can probably got somebody better then Sessler or Smiley in an all-R runoff
Please don't let Jared Sessler be his successor
Last night, the worse Democrat, Jaha Howard, beat the experienced progressive, Roger Bruce. Anyone have insights into why did Roger Bruce lost? Did he fail to campaign. Not make an impression on voters? Fail to attack his opponent, Jaha Howard, for his past extremist utterances?
(By the way, anyone have the turnout figure for this election?)
"Howard "characterized himself as an anti-establishment candidate who wants to shake up business as usual" per
@CapitalBNews."
https://x.com/ZacharyDonnini/status/2001116673789596006?s=20
"Michael S. Schmidt
@nytmike
NEW and BREAKING: Harvard officials are secretly investigating two students over their roles in drawing scrutiny to the relationship between Jeffrey Epstein and the school’s former president, Larry Summers, according to three people briefed on the matter."
https://x.com/nytmike/status/2001247945937838121?s=20
I don't really understand what kompromat, Larry Summers has on the elites. One of the worst Democrats of all time.
Ah. So any good will that Harvard had for not caving to Trump earlier this year - they're flushing it down the drain.
Regarding turnout, I had a Georgia-related question. The two Democrats running in the PSC elections won HD-121 (the district with the recent special election that the Dem won) by big margins - 16 to 18 percent. Of course, those elections had very low turnout. But in that HD-121 special election, the Democrat won by only a 1.7% margin.
So I'm wondering - how did the turnout compare between those elections? Were there Democrats who voted in the November statewide elections but not in the HD-121 special? Or did the Republican base in the district at least partly wake up for the HD-121 special (though not enough to actually win it)?
It’s not perfect because it doesn’t show turnout by precinct and only shows whole counties, but the Georgia Secretary of State has turnout reports. Oconee County turnout was higher in the election last week compared to November. Athens turnout was about the same in both, around 27%. I don’t think this explains all the difference, but part of it. The Republican last week was still much better funded than Eric Gisler. UGA was in the midst of finals week.
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
Ryan Mackenzie just signed onto the Dem discharge petition for a 3 year clean extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies.
It now has 218 and is locked. Four republicans joined with all the Dems to force a vote on the measure:
Lawler
Fitz
Bresnahan
Mackenzie
They have forced a vote
Well, it is dubious in the Senate, but passing one chamber will help.
If it gets north of, say, 240 votes in the House, it may have a chance in the Senate.
60% of the current House is what, 258-9?
Two thirds would be 289-ish?
The latter three probably are motivated in no small part by the election results last month in their districts. They are probably cooked next year anyhow.
I don’t know about Fitzpatrick
After all the Bucks County R incumbents got destroyed with minimal ticket-splitting, I’d throw him in there too.
Pennsylvania Republicans are terrified. I think the margins by which Neuman and Tsai won last month were a lot bigger than they expected.
And frankly, Bresnahan and Mackenzie are going to lose next year regardless of this petition. I strongly suspect Perry loses too. And if the wave is big enough, even Fitzpatrick might lose.
I'm curious if the rust belt (PA, WI, MI, MN) will regain Democratic legislative trifectas next year because of Trump. That would be an electoral shock to Republicans alone, along with losing the House.
Mackenzie and Bresnahan will lose, Perry will lose easily considering he's an underperformer, and Fitzpatrick will win but have a fight to keep his seat
I have Fitzpatrick as an underdog. Every Bucks incumbent Republican just lost reelection by double digits except the DA, and she still lost by over 8 points. I can’t imagine turnout will be much better for Republicans next year with Shapiro driving the top of the ticket.
This shows how shitty of a House Speaker Johnson is.
Utah's Eva Lopez Chavez is trying to use identity politics to obscure the fact that she donated to Republicans, including recently.
Unlikely to win
Agreed, although my main concern is that her running to the left may divide the left vote with Nate Blouin and allow Ben McAdams to win.
I'd rather have a pro life Democrat than a Republican donor
Wasn't Ben McAdams anti-abortion though?
My mistake
MS-2:
https://bsky.app/profile/the-downballot.com/post/3ma6qqq7cxc2h
Cross-posting from The Downballot's Bluesky account. Rep. Bennie Thompson has a left primary challenger -- former Schumer/Warren counsel and attorney Evan Turnage. (Don't be fooled by the mention of Schumer -- a big part of his background is his work with Warren, and his platform is quite left.)
Now, I have no idea if this will even be relevant if/when SCOTUS murders the VRA, unless they do that after the filing deadline. Which, knowing this court, wouldn't surprise me. Still, worth noting for now at least.
Bennie Thompson is a decently left person. I don't see why this would hurt him.
He's 77.
If he's capable of doing his job that isn't an issue, though I do think his tenure has been too long
CA-14:
bsky.app/profile/the-downballot.com/post/3ma6qqq7cxc2h
Cross-posting once again from The Downballot's Bluesky (which I highly recommend those who are on Bluesky follow, there's news there that sometimes appears before the Morning Digests get posted.)
Matt Ortega, the digital communications director for Hillary 2016, is in. Not sure how I feel about this given my criticisms of how that campaign was run -- so I think I'll pass. (Hopefully Aisha Wahab will enter the race at some point.)
It's strange how that race hasn't really attracted a lot of big names. Is it because many are expecting Wahab to run?
Is there any legislative body in the United States other than the D.C. City Council that mandates a position for someone not belonging to the majority party?
Plenty of city or county councils do that.
In both Hartford, CT and Allegheny County, PA, Democrats have gotten around that by running progressive candidates either under third parties (like the Working Families Party) or as independents. Just this year, "independent" Alex Rose, a Democrat, won a seat on the Allegheny County Council that is set aside for a minority party. He defeated a Republican incumbent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Rose_(politician)
Texas Democratic Party has fielded a candidate for EVERY downballot seat up for (re) election next year for the first time ever.
https://www.texastribune.org/2025/12/17/texas-democrats-down-ballot-2026/
FBI "deputy director"/conspiracy theorist Dan Bongino is leaving early next year, according to MSNOW.