That seems hard to believe, but if Hochul is really the Democratic candidate, it's not impossible. I'd have to think, though, that he'd have a better shot as an incumbent.
Even if he does win that uphill battle, he'll almost certainly be in the House minority. What's the fun in that? Hochul is a weak incumbent and if she loses a primary to someone from her left Lawler is perfectly positioned to take advantage of that. He just beat an incumbent liberal Democrat in a highly competitive congressional race that was broadcast all over the NYC media market last year.
I think there's a possibility (albeit small) that she loses a primary. In this environment, there's no way she loses the general. I think slothlax's scenario is remotely (very remotely) possible - that she loses the primary to a DSA-type Dem and Lawler beats that person in the general. Unlikely, but possible...
She may or may not be a strong candidate, but there's no way she loses the general in this electoral environment. I'd say that pretty much any D, short of someone like Jamal Bowman, is a virtual certainty to win the general election and even he would likely be at least favored in the general.
The current environment is part of my thinking. State politics are more favorable to Republicans in the upcoming cycle than federal politics in New York. I'm just saying that from Lawler's perspective, running for governor is the obvious move.
Not sure about the state vs. federal environment statement, but I do agree that running for Governor is probably Lawler's best shot, but no way he beats Hochul. He'd have a chance against a DSA type.
I believe if he serves 5 years in congress he is eligible for a pension. That's one reason to stick around for another term. As Kevin H. says, it's really unlikely she's going to lose a primary. Maybe, maybe (but probably not) if James stepped in, but she'd cream Torres and beat Delgado, who isn't stupid enough to run.
In NY LG's quitting because they can't work with the governor is a time honored tradition. They rarely then run against them and I don't think any have gotten close. Cuomo had a LG who quit, Pataki had an LG who hated him, Hugh Carey had an LG who couldn't work with him, as I recall.
It certainly wasn't his intention and I don't think his career is certainly over, but I just don't see him successfully challenging Hochul. NY LG is a thankless job and he wouldn't be the first, or second in recent memory to jump from it without any particular great plan.
NY state voted ~13 points to the left of the nation in 2024. Even though that is a stark drop from 2020, it's still a huge hill to climb. NY-17 voted 50-49 for Harris in the same year.
Granted, Hochul is weaker than Harris and voters are more willing to vote for the opposing party for local offices. At the same time, 2026 is very likely to be a better year for us than 2024 was and that 12 point gap is not trivial.
Is Hochul so weak as to bridge the entire gap from double digit victory to a loss? I'm skeptical, even though she is definitely one of our weakest and most disappointing major officials.
Considering that she only beat Lee Zeldin by five points in 2022 (weird that you didn't mention the most relevant data point), yes I think she is weak enough to bridge that gap.
2022 was a really bad year for New York Democrats. But sheтАЩs now been in office longer and has collected more barnacles. Lawler is arguably a more appealing candidate than Zeldin. Yet if 2026 is as favorable for Democrats in New York as 2022 was unfavorable, sheтАЩll likely win.
Now that the legislature is firmly in Democratic hands, New York has become more like a New England state where a vote for governor is essentially a referendum on giving Democrats complete control.
Hochul doesn't inspire the base and her crossover appeal is meh too. It's not an exact comparison, but I get vibes of Shannon O'Brien losing to Romney in 2002.
That's a fair point and yes a relevant data point.
But IMO I don't think it changes my conclusion. She won by 5 in a neutral-ish, slightly bad for us, year. Based on other data it seems that the NY/NJ slide had already started for us by then rather than being new to 2024. If 2026 is a better year for us as well hope it should be more than enough to cancel out the potential penalty of a stronger opponent.
It's not impossible that she would lose to him, but I do stand by it being unlikely, and a harder path for him than reelection to the house.
I think running to defend Trump in a 50/50 House district would be harder than running against complete Democratic control of New York state government.
Lawler would be crazy not to run for governor, he probably has a better chance to win that race than his House reelection.
Maybe. Probably pretty close.
That seems hard to believe, but if Hochul is really the Democratic candidate, it's not impossible. I'd have to think, though, that he'd have a better shot as an incumbent.
I'd give him better odds as the incumbent in his house seat. But we don't know who his opponent will be so it's very early.
Even if he does win that uphill battle, he'll almost certainly be in the House minority. What's the fun in that? Hochul is a weak incumbent and if she loses a primary to someone from her left Lawler is perfectly positioned to take advantage of that. He just beat an incumbent liberal Democrat in a highly competitive congressional race that was broadcast all over the NYC media market last year.
Hochul isn't losing a primary or the general.
I think there's a possibility (albeit small) that she loses a primary. In this environment, there's no way she loses the general. I think slothlax's scenario is remotely (very remotely) possible - that she loses the primary to a DSA-type Dem and Lawler beats that person in the general. Unlikely, but possible...
The primary is beside the point, I don't think Hochul is a strong candidate in the general election to begin with.
She may or may not be a strong candidate, but there's no way she loses the general in this electoral environment. I'd say that pretty much any D, short of someone like Jamal Bowman, is a virtual certainty to win the general election and even he would likely be at least favored in the general.
The current environment is part of my thinking. State politics are more favorable to Republicans in the upcoming cycle than federal politics in New York. I'm just saying that from Lawler's perspective, running for governor is the obvious move.
Not sure about the state vs. federal environment statement, but I do agree that running for Governor is probably Lawler's best shot, but no way he beats Hochul. He'd have a chance against a DSA type.
I believe if he serves 5 years in congress he is eligible for a pension. That's one reason to stick around for another term. As Kevin H. says, it's really unlikely she's going to lose a primary. Maybe, maybe (but probably not) if James stepped in, but she'd cream Torres and beat Delgado, who isn't stupid enough to run.
It would be weird if Delgado didn't run. Otherwise, what's the point of not running for reelection as LG?
In NY LG's quitting because they can't work with the governor is a time honored tradition. They rarely then run against them and I don't think any have gotten close. Cuomo had a LG who quit, Pataki had an LG who hated him, Hugh Carey had an LG who couldn't work with him, as I recall.
I don't think Delgado gave up a promising career in the House just to be a one term LG.
It certainly wasn't his intention and I don't think his career is certainly over, but I just don't see him successfully challenging Hochul. NY LG is a thankless job and he wouldn't be the first, or second in recent memory to jump from it without any particular great plan.
NY state voted ~13 points to the left of the nation in 2024. Even though that is a stark drop from 2020, it's still a huge hill to climb. NY-17 voted 50-49 for Harris in the same year.
Granted, Hochul is weaker than Harris and voters are more willing to vote for the opposing party for local offices. At the same time, 2026 is very likely to be a better year for us than 2024 was and that 12 point gap is not trivial.
Is Hochul so weak as to bridge the entire gap from double digit victory to a loss? I'm skeptical, even though she is definitely one of our weakest and most disappointing major officials.
Considering that she only beat Lee Zeldin by five points in 2022 (weird that you didn't mention the most relevant data point), yes I think she is weak enough to bridge that gap.
2022 was a really bad year for New York Democrats. But sheтАЩs now been in office longer and has collected more barnacles. Lawler is arguably a more appealing candidate than Zeldin. Yet if 2026 is as favorable for Democrats in New York as 2022 was unfavorable, sheтАЩll likely win.
Now that the legislature is firmly in Democratic hands, New York has become more like a New England state where a vote for governor is essentially a referendum on giving Democrats complete control.
Hochul doesn't inspire the base and her crossover appeal is meh too. It's not an exact comparison, but I get vibes of Shannon O'Brien losing to Romney in 2002.
That's a fair point and yes a relevant data point.
But IMO I don't think it changes my conclusion. She won by 5 in a neutral-ish, slightly bad for us, year. Based on other data it seems that the NY/NJ slide had already started for us by then rather than being new to 2024. If 2026 is a better year for us as well hope it should be more than enough to cancel out the potential penalty of a stronger opponent.
It's not impossible that she would lose to him, but I do stand by it being unlikely, and a harder path for him than reelection to the house.
I think running to defend Trump in a 50/50 House district would be harder than running against complete Democratic control of New York state government.