Even if he does win that uphill battle, he'll almost certainly be in the House minority. What's the fun in that? Hochul is a weak incumbent and if she loses a primary to someone from her left Lawler is perfectly positioned to take advantage of that. He just beat an incumbent liberal Democrat in a highly competitive congressional race that was broadcast all over the NYC media market last year.
I think there's a possibility (albeit small) that she loses a primary. In this environment, there's no way she loses the general. I think slothlax's scenario is remotely (very remotely) possible - that she loses the primary to a DSA-type Dem and Lawler beats that person in the general. Unlikely, but possible...
She may or may not be a strong candidate, but there's no way she loses the general in this electoral environment. I'd say that pretty much any D, short of someone like Jamal Bowman, is a virtual certainty to win the general election and even he would likely be at least favored in the general.
The current environment is part of my thinking. State politics are more favorable to Republicans in the upcoming cycle than federal politics in New York. I'm just saying that from Lawler's perspective, running for governor is the obvious move.
Not sure about the state vs. federal environment statement, but I do agree that running for Governor is probably Lawler's best shot, but no way he beats Hochul. He'd have a chance against a DSA type.
I believe if he serves 5 years in congress he is eligible for a pension. That's one reason to stick around for another term. As Kevin H. says, it's really unlikely she's going to lose a primary. Maybe, maybe (but probably not) if James stepped in, but she'd cream Torres and beat Delgado, who isn't stupid enough to run.
In NY LG's quitting because they can't work with the governor is a time honored tradition. They rarely then run against them and I don't think any have gotten close. Cuomo had a LG who quit, Pataki had an LG who hated him, Hugh Carey had an LG who couldn't work with him, as I recall.
It certainly wasn't his intention and I don't think his career is certainly over, but I just don't see him successfully challenging Hochul. NY LG is a thankless job and he wouldn't be the first, or second in recent memory to jump from it without any particular great plan.
I'd give him better odds as the incumbent in his house seat. But we don't know who his opponent will be so it's very early.
Even if he does win that uphill battle, he'll almost certainly be in the House minority. What's the fun in that? Hochul is a weak incumbent and if she loses a primary to someone from her left Lawler is perfectly positioned to take advantage of that. He just beat an incumbent liberal Democrat in a highly competitive congressional race that was broadcast all over the NYC media market last year.
Hochul isn't losing a primary or the general.
I think there's a possibility (albeit small) that she loses a primary. In this environment, there's no way she loses the general. I think slothlax's scenario is remotely (very remotely) possible - that she loses the primary to a DSA-type Dem and Lawler beats that person in the general. Unlikely, but possible...
The primary is beside the point, I don't think Hochul is a strong candidate in the general election to begin with.
She may or may not be a strong candidate, but there's no way she loses the general in this electoral environment. I'd say that pretty much any D, short of someone like Jamal Bowman, is a virtual certainty to win the general election and even he would likely be at least favored in the general.
The current environment is part of my thinking. State politics are more favorable to Republicans in the upcoming cycle than federal politics in New York. I'm just saying that from Lawler's perspective, running for governor is the obvious move.
Not sure about the state vs. federal environment statement, but I do agree that running for Governor is probably Lawler's best shot, but no way he beats Hochul. He'd have a chance against a DSA type.
I believe if he serves 5 years in congress he is eligible for a pension. That's one reason to stick around for another term. As Kevin H. says, it's really unlikely she's going to lose a primary. Maybe, maybe (but probably not) if James stepped in, but she'd cream Torres and beat Delgado, who isn't stupid enough to run.
It would be weird if Delgado didn't run. Otherwise, what's the point of not running for reelection as LG?
In NY LG's quitting because they can't work with the governor is a time honored tradition. They rarely then run against them and I don't think any have gotten close. Cuomo had a LG who quit, Pataki had an LG who hated him, Hugh Carey had an LG who couldn't work with him, as I recall.
I don't think Delgado gave up a promising career in the House just to be a one term LG.
It certainly wasn't his intention and I don't think his career is certainly over, but I just don't see him successfully challenging Hochul. NY LG is a thankless job and he wouldn't be the first, or second in recent memory to jump from it without any particular great plan.