I think there's a possibility (albeit small) that she loses a primary. In this environment, there's no way she loses the general. I think slothlax's scenario is remotely (very remotely) possible - that she loses the primary to a DSA-type Dem and Lawler beats that person in the general. Unlikely, but possible...
She may or may not be a strong candidate, but there's no way she loses the general in this electoral environment. I'd say that pretty much any D, short of someone like Jamal Bowman, is a virtual certainty to win the general election and even he would likely be at least favored in the general.
The current environment is part of my thinking. State politics are more favorable to Republicans in the upcoming cycle than federal politics in New York. I'm just saying that from Lawler's perspective, running for governor is the obvious move.
Not sure about the state vs. federal environment statement, but I do agree that running for Governor is probably Lawler's best shot, but no way he beats Hochul. He'd have a chance against a DSA type.
Hochul isn't losing a primary or the general.
I think there's a possibility (albeit small) that she loses a primary. In this environment, there's no way she loses the general. I think slothlax's scenario is remotely (very remotely) possible - that she loses the primary to a DSA-type Dem and Lawler beats that person in the general. Unlikely, but possible...
The primary is beside the point, I don't think Hochul is a strong candidate in the general election to begin with.
She may or may not be a strong candidate, but there's no way she loses the general in this electoral environment. I'd say that pretty much any D, short of someone like Jamal Bowman, is a virtual certainty to win the general election and even he would likely be at least favored in the general.
The current environment is part of my thinking. State politics are more favorable to Republicans in the upcoming cycle than federal politics in New York. I'm just saying that from Lawler's perspective, running for governor is the obvious move.
Not sure about the state vs. federal environment statement, but I do agree that running for Governor is probably Lawler's best shot, but no way he beats Hochul. He'd have a chance against a DSA type.