NY state voted ~13 points to the left of the nation in 2024. Even though that is a stark drop from 2020, it's still a huge hill to climb. NY-17 voted 50-49 for Harris in the same year.
Granted, Hochul is weaker than Harris and voters are more willing to vote for the opposing party for local offices. At the same time, 2026 is very likely to be a better year for us than 2024 was and that 12 point gap is not trivial.
Is Hochul so weak as to bridge the entire gap from double digit victory to a loss? I'm skeptical, even though she is definitely one of our weakest and most disappointing major officials.
Considering that she only beat Lee Zeldin by five points in 2022 (weird that you didn't mention the most relevant data point), yes I think she is weak enough to bridge that gap.
2022 was a really bad year for New York Democrats. But she’s now been in office longer and has collected more barnacles. Lawler is arguably a more appealing candidate than Zeldin. Yet if 2026 is as favorable for Democrats in New York as 2022 was unfavorable, she’ll likely win.
Now that the legislature is firmly in Democratic hands, New York has become more like a New England state where a vote for governor is essentially a referendum on giving Democrats complete control.
Hochul doesn't inspire the base and her crossover appeal is meh too. It's not an exact comparison, but I get vibes of Shannon O'Brien losing to Romney in 2002.
That's a fair point and yes a relevant data point.
But IMO I don't think it changes my conclusion. She won by 5 in a neutral-ish, slightly bad for us, year. Based on other data it seems that the NY/NJ slide had already started for us by then rather than being new to 2024. If 2026 is a better year for us as well hope it should be more than enough to cancel out the potential penalty of a stronger opponent.
It's not impossible that she would lose to him, but I do stand by it being unlikely, and a harder path for him than reelection to the house.
I think running to defend Trump in a 50/50 House district would be harder than running against complete Democratic control of New York state government.
NY state voted ~13 points to the left of the nation in 2024. Even though that is a stark drop from 2020, it's still a huge hill to climb. NY-17 voted 50-49 for Harris in the same year.
Granted, Hochul is weaker than Harris and voters are more willing to vote for the opposing party for local offices. At the same time, 2026 is very likely to be a better year for us than 2024 was and that 12 point gap is not trivial.
Is Hochul so weak as to bridge the entire gap from double digit victory to a loss? I'm skeptical, even though she is definitely one of our weakest and most disappointing major officials.
Considering that she only beat Lee Zeldin by five points in 2022 (weird that you didn't mention the most relevant data point), yes I think she is weak enough to bridge that gap.
2022 was a really bad year for New York Democrats. But she’s now been in office longer and has collected more barnacles. Lawler is arguably a more appealing candidate than Zeldin. Yet if 2026 is as favorable for Democrats in New York as 2022 was unfavorable, she’ll likely win.
Now that the legislature is firmly in Democratic hands, New York has become more like a New England state where a vote for governor is essentially a referendum on giving Democrats complete control.
Hochul doesn't inspire the base and her crossover appeal is meh too. It's not an exact comparison, but I get vibes of Shannon O'Brien losing to Romney in 2002.
That's a fair point and yes a relevant data point.
But IMO I don't think it changes my conclusion. She won by 5 in a neutral-ish, slightly bad for us, year. Based on other data it seems that the NY/NJ slide had already started for us by then rather than being new to 2024. If 2026 is a better year for us as well hope it should be more than enough to cancel out the potential penalty of a stronger opponent.
It's not impossible that she would lose to him, but I do stand by it being unlikely, and a harder path for him than reelection to the house.
I think running to defend Trump in a 50/50 House district would be harder than running against complete Democratic control of New York state government.