That's a fair point and yes a relevant data point.
But IMO I don't think it changes my conclusion. She won by 5 in a neutral-ish, slightly bad for us, year. Based on other data it seems that the NY/NJ slide had already started for us by then rather than being new to 2024. If 2026 is a better year for us as well hope it should be more than enough to cancel out the potential penalty of a stronger opponent.
It's not impossible that she would lose to him, but I do stand by it being unlikely, and a harder path for him than reelection to the house.
I think running to defend Trump in a 50/50 House district would be harder than running against complete Democratic control of New York state government.
That's a fair point and yes a relevant data point.
But IMO I don't think it changes my conclusion. She won by 5 in a neutral-ish, slightly bad for us, year. Based on other data it seems that the NY/NJ slide had already started for us by then rather than being new to 2024. If 2026 is a better year for us as well hope it should be more than enough to cancel out the potential penalty of a stronger opponent.
It's not impossible that she would lose to him, but I do stand by it being unlikely, and a harder path for him than reelection to the house.
I think running to defend Trump in a 50/50 House district would be harder than running against complete Democratic control of New York state government.