
Morning Digest: Gavin Newsom wants to fight fire with fire
As Texas GOP aims to re-gerrymander, California's governor plots payback
Leading Off
CA Redistricting
With Texas Republicans prepared to take their state's already-gerrymandered congressional map to new extremes, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is threatening to fight fire with fire.
In an interview on Tuesday evening with Pod Save America, Newsom decried "a whole 'nother level of weaponization coming from the right," saying Republicans "gotta rig the game" because they "can't win by existing rules." While calling for "a national framework for independent redistricting," Newsom warned against those who want to "play fair in a world that is wholly unfair."
"We may have the higher moral ground," the governor said, "but the ground is shifting from underneath us, and I think we have to wake up to that reality."
Without explicitly saying so, Newsom suggested California Democrats could retaliate—or at least threaten to retaliate—against Republicans in Texas by enacting a map that could cancel out any gains the GOP might squeeze out of the Lone Star State in a special legislative session set to begin on Monday. (Trump told reporters on Tuesday afternoon that he wants a new map that would net five seats in Texas.)
The possibility was first reported by the Texas Tribune earlier this month, but it's only now that Newsom has detailed his thoughts on how Democrats might overcome a major obstacle: California's independent redistricting commission, which has control over congressional line-drawing following voter approval of a ballot measure in 2010.
That commission is enshrined in the state constitution, but Newsom said he believes voters would be prepared to change it.
"We can do a special session. I can call for one today if I chose to," he told Pod Save America. "We can then put something on the ballot, and I could call a special election. We can change the constitution, with the consent of the voters."
"And I think we would win that," Newsom continued. "I think people understand what's at stake in California. I think we come out in record numbers. I think it would be [an] extraordinary success."
He cautioned, however, that this approach would offer only "a very short window," given the time needed for map-makers to prepare new districts and for administrators to implement them. (California's primary is set for early June of next year, with a candidate filing deadline in March.)
Under state law, a special election could be held no sooner than the first statewide general election that's at least 131 days after the legislature refers an amendment to the ballot. However, lawmakers could, by a two-thirds vote, also pass an "urgency statute" moving up that timeline. (Democrats hold two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers.)
Newsom also floated an alternative plan, proposing that, despite the existence of the redistricting commission, lawmakers might still be empowered to draw new maps midway through a decade.
"Every census, the independent redistricting commission does the new map," he explained. "But it's silent about what happens in between. So, it's a novel legal question, and it's being explored."
The state Supreme Court ruled more than 40 years ago that redistricting was only permissible once a decade, but that decision was based on provisions in the state constitution that the 2010 ballot measure has since amended.
David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot! We’ve been covering redistricting for years, whether it’s happening on a normal schedule or … otherwise. We will keep you closely apprised of whatever happens next in Texas—or California. Upgrade to a paid subscription to make sure we can keep bringing you all the most important news (and get some cool perks, too!):
The Downballot Podcast
California's plan to thwart a Texas gerrymander
Texas Republicans already gerrymandered their maps half to death, but Donald Trump is pushing them to go even further. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, however, has proposed a tit-for-tat plan that would make the GOP pay a price, and we're exploring its potential on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Are Newsom's ideas legally feasible—and can he sell them to voters? A swing of as many as five House seats could depend on it.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also go behind the scenes to discuss what it's like to actually run in a special election with Washington state Sen. Deb Krishnadasan. She tells us all about the extremely swingy district she's defending; how the August top-two primary functions as a sort of massive poll of the November general election; and how Trump's "big beautiful bill" instantly got voters up in arms.
The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!
Senate
LA-Sen
Both of Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy's GOP primary foes are doing a significant amount of self-funding, but one of them seems reluctant to actually part with his money.
New campaign finance reports show state Treasurer John Fleming loaned his campaign $2 million during the second quarter of the year, making his total receipts appear to exceed $2 million when that loan was combined with the $120,000 in actual donations he took in.
Fleming, though, also took back an identical $2 million loan he made during the first three months of the year. Cassidy's team was quick to highlight the sleight-of-hand and noted that, because Fleming spent more than he raised, his $2.1 million campaign account is smaller than what he ended March with.
Fleming is hardly the first wealthy candidate we've seen play yo-yo with his finances, but it's rarely worked out well for any of them. Indeed, Cassidy's campaign was all too happy to draw attention to how little money their opponent was bringing in from people who aren't named John Fleming.
The treasurer, though, seems committed to the bit, telling NOTUS he intends to keep pulling the same move "every quarter until the election."
State Sen. Blake Miguez, meanwhile, raised $810,000 from donors during the two weeks between his entry into the race and the end of the quarter. Miguez loaned himself an additional $1 million, and he ended June with $1.7 million in the bank.
Cassidy, finally, took in $1.6 million—none of it self-funded—and concluded last month with $8.7 million on hand. Louisiana's GOP primary will take place next April; a runoff would be held a month later if no one earned a majority in the first round.
MN-Sen
Former NBA forward Willie Burton says he remains interested in seeking the Republican nomination for Minnesota's open Senate seat, a contest where his party still lacks a viable candidate.
But Burton, who first brought up the idea in April, acknowledged he had some concerns about a potential campaign. He told the Minnesota Star Tribune, "[D]o I want my life back in the mode of the NBA, where my life no longer belongs to me?"
NH-Sen
State Sen. Dan Innis announced Wednesday that he would seek the Republican nomination for New Hampshire's open U.S. Senate seat, a decision that sets off a contested GOP primary.
Innis quickly drew a contrast with his intraparty rival, Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator who is waging his second campaign in the Granite State.
Innis told the Concord Monitor's Charlotte Matherly that his experience as a businessman, state lawmaker, and dean of the University of New Hampshire's business school has "helped me to connect with, really, the core values of our constituents in this great state." He added, "I think I'm better able to represent those values in Washington, D.C. than is Scott Brown."
Innis, like Brown, also pitched himself as an ally to Donald Trump, who lost New Hampshire's electoral votes in all three of his presidential campaigns. When Matherly asked Innis how he differed from his party's leader, he responded that "nothing comes to mind."
The eventual GOP nominee will almost certainly face Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who has no serious primary opponent, in next year's race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Such a contest between Pappas and Innis would also mark the first Senate general election between two gay nominees.
Innis, who would also be the first gay member of the GOP's Senate caucus, first attracted national attention a little more than a decade ago when he sought to challenge Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in 2014 in the swingy 1st District.
Innis, though, lost a competitive primary against former Rep. Frank Guinta, who went on to reclaim his old seat from Shea-Porter. That race, which marked the last time a Republican won a federal election in New Hampshire, took place on the same night that Brown fell short in his bid to unseat Shaheen.
Innis initially ran for the House again the next cycle after the FEC ruled that Guinta had illegally accepted a $355,000 campaign donation from his parents in 2010, but he ended up dropping out and seeking a seat in the state Senate. He wound up winning a close election for a constituency based in the Seacoast region as a damaged Guinta again lost reelection to Shea-Porter.
Innis lost reelection himself in 2018 as a backlash against Trump unexpectedly gave New Hampshire Democrats control of the state Senate for two years. (Pappas also won the race to replace Shea-Porter, who decided to retire.) Innis, though, came back in 2022 by winning a different seat—this one located in the middle of the state—and he easily held it last year.
TX-Sen
Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson confirmed this week that he hasn't ruled out entering the Republican primary for Senate, though he told NBC he would "keep my powder dry right now."
But Jackson, who is Donald Trump's former White House physician, acknowledged his party's concerns about the race as poll after poll shows Attorney General Ken Paxton defeating Sen. John Cornyn for the GOP nod.
"A lot of people think Ken Paxton might have trouble in the general," Jackson said of the scandal-ridden attorney general. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is considering waging his own Senate bid, also told NBC that Republicans "should be" worried that Paxton is on track to be their nominee.
Cornyn's allies, however, are trying to boost the incumbent with an early ad buy that the Washington Post's Patrick Svitek says has seven figures behind it.
The opening commercial from Texans for a Conservative Majority touts Cornyn as an ardent ally of Donald Trump and features a clip of the party's master telling rally goers about their "wonderful senator." Trump has not taken sides in the primary between Cornyn and Paxton.
Governors
FL-Gov
Former state House Speaker Paul Renner is considering entering the Republican primary for governor, the conservative site The Floridian reports.
Renner, an ally of termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis, did not confirm or deny anything when the outlet contacted him. The former speaker, whose two-year tenure ended last November, instead said, "I appreciate why people have asked me to consider running."
Renner's deliberations come as Rep. Byron Donalds, who has spent the last two years on the outs with DeSantis, appears to be on a glide path to capturing the GOP nomination. Donalds, who has Donald Trump's backing, told The Hill on Wednesday that his relationship with his would-be predecessor "has been better but it's a work in progress."
RI-Gov
State Senate Minority Leader Jessica de la Cruz did not rule out seeking the Republican nomination for governor of Rhode Island on Tuesday, despite having taken her name out of contention in February. Now, though, de la Cruz tells WPRI that "all options are on the table."
Businesswoman Ashley Kalus, who was the GOP's 2022 nominee against Democratic Gov. Dan McKee, was quick to express hope that de la Cruz would take up the task. While Kalus showed some interest in running earlier this year, she told the station that the senator would provide a "competent and not corrupt" choice for voters.
While Kalus' lopsided 58-39 loss to Democratic Gov. Dan McKee demonstrates some of the obstacles any GOP nominee would face in this blue state, Republicans think they have an opening next year.
McKee has continued his reelection campaign despite ugly poll numbers, and he's almost certain to face a difficult primary battle against former CVS executive Helena Foulkes. Attorney General Peter Neronha and state House Speaker Joe Shekarchi have also expressed interest in entering what could be a messy and unpredictable fight for the Democratic nomination.
Virginia
Winsome Earle-Sears and John Reid can barely stand to be around one another, but the two Virginia Republicans have one thing in common: They badly lag their Democratic opponents in fundraising.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger ended June with a gigantic $15.2 million to $4.6 million cash advantage over Earle-Sears in the race for governor.
Spanberger also outraised Earle-Sears $4.3 million to $2.4 million during the most recent reporting period, which lasted from June 5 until the end of the month. She's raised a total of $27.1 million since the start of the race—more than twice as much as her rival's $11.6 million haul.
Reid, though, is in far worse shape as he faces Democrat Ghazala Hashmi in the contest to replace Earle-Sears as lieutenant governor.
Hashmi triumphed in a close and expensive June 17 primary, but it didn't take long for her to rebuild her war chest. Data from the Virginia Public Access Project shows that she received over $1 million in contributions for the remaining 13 days of the month. As a result, she finished the month with a huge cash lead of $1.3 million to $163,000.
Reid, who had no intraparty opposition, has yet to receive such a boost.
While the conservative talk radio host rallied the party's base in the spring after Gov. Glenn Youngkin unsuccessfully called for him to end his campaign over sexually explicit online posts shared by an account purportedly tied to the candidate, donors have yet to respond quite so enthusiastically. Reid has brought in just $440,000 during his entire campaign, just a fraction of Hashmi's $3.5 million total haul.
Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares, who is the only statewide incumbent up for reelection, remains a rare bright spot for his party amidst all this angst. Miyares finished June 30 with a hefty $7 million to $1.2 million cash on hand lead over Democrat Jay Jones.
Jones, like Hashmi, won a tough primary just a few weeks before the reporting deadline, and VPAP shows that he also received a similar surge in contributions after his win. He's still far behind Miyares, however, because the attorney general—unlike his ticket mates—has been able to build up a huge war chest.
WI-Gov
As Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is keeping Wisconsin guessing about his reelection plans, new fundraising data shows that he raised far less money during the first half of the year than he did in the early stages of his last campaign.
Evers brought in $760,000 from January through the end of June, compared to the $5 million that WisPolitics says he raised during the first half of 2021. The governor also finished last month with $2 million on hand, while he had $7 million available four years ago.
But Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, who entered the Republican primary in May, might still be envious of Evers' current haul. Schoemann raised $420,000 during his first two months on the campaign trail and had $340,000 in the bank.
Businessman Bill Berrien joined the GOP primary this month after the start of the new fundraising period, but we already have a peek at his side's financial abilities.
The Associated Press highlights that an allied super PAC took in $1.2 million through the end of last month, with almost all of that coming from crypto twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. Reporter Scott Bauer notes that two, who may be better known as the real-life "Winklevi" depicted in "The Social Network," have donated to Donald Trump and Elon Musk's political efforts.
House
CA-22
Democratic Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains announced Wednesday that she would challenge Republican Rep. David Valadao in California's 22nd District, a perennial battleground located in the state's Central Valley.
Bains, who is a physician, entered the race three months after Randy Villegas, a school board trustee in the city of Visalia, became the first Democrat to enter the top-two primary.
Villegas raised $230,000 during his opening quarter, and he finished June with $130,000. Valadao, for his part, took in just under $500,000 during the second quarter and had $1.4 million banked.
Bains kicked off her campaign by taking the incumbent to task for voting to cut Medicaid, a program that over 60% of his constituents are enrolled in—one of the highest proportions in the nation.
"That vote was really a betrayal," Bains told CalMatters. "I did not envision ever running for Congress. But this is a matter of a doctor upholding her Hippocratic Oath that she took to protect her patients."
Bains said she believes the vote will damage Valadao in a heavily Latino constituency that swung hard to the right last year. Calculations by The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried the 22nd District 52-46, four years after Joe Biden won it 55-42.
Valadao, who was first elected in 2012, won his last campaign 53-47, the latest chapter in his long history of frustrating Democrats. His opponents, though, haven't forgotten the fact that he narrowly lost reelection in 2018 during Trump's first midterm election before regaining his seat in 2020.
Bains, whom CalMatters identifies as "a moderate who frequently breaks ranks with her party," also has demonstrated that she's capable of winning extensive crossover support. The legislator won reelection 58-42 as Kamala Harris was winning her 35th Assembly District just 48.8 to 48.4.
Bains also begins her new effort with a large geographic base of support. Data from The Downballot shows that over 60% of Valadao's constituents also live in her Assembly district.
Bains, who is the daughter of immigrants from India, would be the second Sikh person to ever serve in Congress. The first was Dalip Singh Saund, a California Democrat whose service from 1957 to 1963 made him the first-ever Asian American member of Congress.
IA-02
Retired Army nurse Kathryn Dolter, who is a former dean of nursing at Kirkwood Community College, announced this week that she would seek the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson.
Dolter, who is currently the only notable Democrat in the race, focused on Hinson's vote for the GOP's budget bill as she began her campaign to flip the 2nd District, a northeastern Iowa seat Trump carried 54-44 last year.
"For all hospitals, a major portion of their bottom line is Medicaid payments," she told Iowa Public Radio. "Medicaid cuts for women are really going to hurt because of increasing maternal mortality, and we know that rural maternal mortality is higher."
IL-09
Nick Pyati, a former federal prosecutor who has also worked for Microsoft, announced Wednesday that he would seek the Democratic nomination for Illinois' 9th District—a safely blue seat that's home to one of the most packed primaries anywhere in the nation.
Pyati, who touted himself as an alternative to "a political system that rewards the next in line, instead of the next big idea," is the 13th Democrat competing to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky. The field includes several local elected officials as well as hopefuls who haven't held major office before.
One example of the latter is businessman Bruce Leon, a local Democratic committeeman in Chicago who entered the race early last month. While Leon, who decisively lost a race for a spot on Chicago's school board last year, didn't attract as much attention as many of his rivals, Politico flags that he self-funded over $600,000 to launch his new effort.
Other Races
FL Chief Financial Officer
The latest conflict between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump erupted Wednesday when DeSantis appointed an ally to the vacant office of chief financial officer instead of the candidate Trump wanted. It will be up to GOP primary voters next year, however, to decide who will come out on top in what Politico is already calling a "Trump-DeSantis proxy war."
The governor selected state Sen. Blaise Ingoglia, whom DeSantis called "the most conservative senator in the state of Florida," to replace Jimmy Patronis, who was elected to the U.S. House in April.
Trump, for his part, had long ago endorsed state Sen. Joe Gruters, who has been anything but a friend to DeSantis.
"The more he is met by people, the more they are not going to like him," Gruters said during DeSantis' failed presidential campaign.
The disdain is mutual.
"[I]f George Washington rose from the dead and came back and tapped me on the shoulder and said, 'Will you appoint Joe Gruters CFO?' My response would be 'no,'" DeSantis said Wednesday. "I can't do that without betraying the voters."
DeSantis highlighted Gruters' support for an unsuccessful ballot measure that would have legalized recreational marijuana as well as his opposition to an anti-labor bill.
Ingoglia and Gruters are set to face off next year in the primary for CFO, an unusual post that has many of the duties that would belong to a treasurer or comptroller in other states and also functions as Florida's fire marshal.
Prominent members of Trump's inner circle are aiding Gruters' quest and returning to their familiar habit of trash-talking DeSantis.
"DeSantis learned the hard way that opposing President Trump in statewide Republican contests is a recipe for disaster," said pollster Tony Fabrizio. "Appointing a Never-Trumper for CFO over Trump's endorsed candidate will be viewed as a direct rebuke to the MAGA agenda and will end up just like DeSantis' other anti-MAGA efforts."
Until we can get a national federal law uniformly putting commissions in place in all states, I guess we have no choice but to do this. I’m still very disappointed that Dems didn’t go more aggressive in NY (I.e. attaching parts of Lower Manhattan to Staten Island for NY-11 and swapping out Lawler’s best parts of Rockland for more of Westchester in NY-17). That probably would have given Dems two more seats.
Wow. California redistricting! California Democrats may actually attempt to do this thing. It isn't just Newsom daydreaming.
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From: https://politicalwire.com/2025/07/17/house-democrats-ready-to-redistrict-california/
House Democrats Ready to Redistrict California
“California Democrats are charging ahead with an ambitious and potentially expensive plan to squeeze between five and seven more Democratic seats out of their congressional map,” Punchbowl News reports."
“California Democrats were overwhelmingly on board with drawing a new map, but members want input in how the lines are drawn.”