I don't see a lot of Epstein obsessed voters crossing over, but I can certainly see them sitting out. And base turnout is even more important in midterm elections.
I'm not by any means sure that VA leans hard enough Democratic for it to be smart to get rid of a commission there and go back to unlimited gerrymandering.
Yeah there is still an outside chance Republicans could win a trifecta in a bad environment (Minnesota is in this same boat) here. In states like this, we should probably want commissions. I’d add Nevada too at this point.
The Nevada Dem gerrymander has been really successful. They lost the popular vote in the state assembly 45.6-53.1 last year but still held a 27-15 majority.
Too hard in VA. To get things on the ballot, has to pass 2 general assembly sessions. And not sure why "polite" but otherwise Dem NoVA voters would overturn something they just passed.
The state senate is gonna be really tough. If they can do it, they need to put an independent redistricting on the ballot here to avoid another 2010 scenario where Republicans have a trifecta and can gerrymander everything. Yeah sure, Dems may have a good chance at still having the state Supreme Court to stop that in 2031 but that seems like a band aid to cover up a mortal wound.
From what we know, he was an alcoholic and dim-witted. He had been privy to a report of suspected Communists in the State Department and instead of surgically going after and exposing them (like Alger Hiss), he went scorched earth across many sectors and ruined many livelihoods. Senator Johnny Iselin in "The Manchurian Candidate" was a spot-on facsimile of him, including his inability to keep the number of suspected Communists consistent from speech to speech.
Which is why Graham is so especially petrified of Trump. If Graham ever got on Trump’s bad side this is the first thing Trump would use to attack him. I can just hear Trump saying “I’ve heard some things about Lindsay Graham…”.
Sure, especially in the case of people who don't usually pay attention to anything but what's on conspiracy sites. I guess we don't know how much of a difference it might make in voting.
Wouldn't the GOP controlled Ohio Board of Elections purposefully distort and exaggerate the repeal referendum wording? They did that on the independent redistricting amendment last year and successfully got it voted down.
The fact that Republicans defended the current redistricting commission (stacked in their favor) as being something that prevents gerrymandering, I think it could lead to an actual successful legit commission ballot campaign if Republicans go too crazy on this redraw. If they try and pull something ridiculous looking with OH-01 (the only way to make that district R leaning), how can they possibly argue that the current commission prevents gerrymandering?
They can argue that because Republicans are habitual liars and Republican voters believe the lies or are so stupid and brainwashed, they can't tell the difference and don't care. So yes, it's worth trying, but let's not have confidence that it'll work.
The problem has been that the GOP Secretary of State will play games with the language that appears on the ballot. They have done this twice, and the partisan hacks on the Ohio Supreme Court will allow this.
“California Democrats are charging ahead with an ambitious and potentially expensive plan to squeeze between five and seven more Democratic seats out of their congressional map,” Punchbowl News reports."
“California Democrats were overwhelmingly on board with drawing a new map, but members want input in how the lines are drawn.”
Yes, I am very skeptical that this will happen, or is even doable. At least the primary will be in June, not March. In presidential years the CA primary is nowadays held in early March, but without it we are back to the traditional June primary in the Golden State.
Even if such a ballot measure succeeds (and I am doubtful that it would pass), that is not much time to draw the districts, have candidate filing and get to early June with it all ready to go.
I was skeptical before, but this could work. Since we have supermajorities in both CA chambers (meaning the Repubs can do nothing to stop it), they can place a Proposition on the ballot for the electorate to vote on changing the state constitution.
There would need to be a special statewide election called (either by the legislature or the governor) just for this ballot measure well in advance of the June 2026 primary to allow time for the new CD lines to be drawn. (it might be best to push back the June date a few months, too).
Also, I would just change it to just remove the House redistricting role from the Citizens Commission, while leaving it in place to still do the state legislative lines in 2032 (which might be a good idea to help sell the Proposition to the voters).
Here's another story. From the Sacramento Bee:
Gov. Gavin Newsom mulls special election to redistrict California
In these dark times, it is heartening and highly amusing how Agent Orange is unwittingly helping liberal and democratically-minded parties throughout the Western World and elsewhere: Canada, Australia, Germany, Norway, Brazil, etc etc.
Until we can get a national federal law uniformly putting commissions in place in all states, I guess we have no choice but to do this. I’m still very disappointed that Dems didn’t go more aggressive in NY (I.e. attaching parts of Lower Manhattan to Staten Island for NY-11 and swapping out Lawler’s best parts of Rockland for more of Westchester in NY-17). That probably would have given Dems two more seats.
Electionsjoe eliminates an Austin and an Houston seat and it's a dummymander if Democrats win Biden margins among minorities. (which imo is a very real possibility)
Saw this in HuffPost today. Apparently Dems are struggling in polling in the generic ballot, particularly compared to 2018 and 2006. The CNN data analyst seems to think we’re headed for another 2024.
Thoughts? Not sure how I feel about this so I’m curious as to what those here think.
There's going to be a lot of this garbage over the next year and a half, because (1.) the legacy media want another "fizzled wave" à la 2022, and (2.) the legacy media are dying and will do anything to get views and clicks, and they know that giving Democrats heartburn is a surefire way to do so.
No one said it was going to be easy but Enten is a clickbait sideshow. Ask yourself if gop internals were looking close would they be trying this Texas redistricting stuff? Would trump be publicly pleading with Nunn to run again in Iowa?
I think the generic numbers reflect more Dem voter frustration with Congressional leadership than some quiet support for trump. Those folks are much likely to come home as the daily nonsense from trump and crew continue. I’m not saying we should light victory cigars but the concern trolling by Enten is just engagement fishing from a more obnoxious version of Kornacki.
We really should replace Schumer with Klobuchar or Schatz, he's taking the party down. I am not even talking about his actions, his image is really bad and his approval is so much worse than Trump.
I feel like the Peter Principle applies to Enten. He was great on the 538 podcast, but his schtick doesn't translate well on a more mainstream platform like CNN IMO.
I think there's a real possibility that generic D continues to do badly, but individual D candidates, even in red or pink areas, do well. It may be that '26 is not as much a national election as some recent mid-terms. The old "I hate Congress, but love my Congressperson" may become "I don't like Democrats overall, but my person is good." And it doesn't have to be someone who's an insufferable moderate, either.
We now have years of high-quality polling (i.e., actual election results) that shows that Trump's coalition fails to turn out when he's not on the ballot—including in a 2022 midterm that should have been a layup for the GOP.
Yes although it should be noted that in the 2018 midterms Democrats got a net -2 loss in the Senate even while gaining two seats. This takes into account the four Senate seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.
FL had pretty good turnout on both the Democratic Party and GOP's side.
Right. If a pollster asked me if I approve the the job the Dem party is doing today, I'd say hell no. If they asked who I would vote for in the next election, I'd say Dems, ofc. If they asked which party better reflects your values, I'd again say the Dems. If there was a viable center left party that had better leadership than Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, my answers might change. But as much as I wish Rainbow Dash and Twilight Sparkle were real, we don't live in Equestria.
His base is more pissed about this than anything I’ve seen in the last decade so, for now, I’ll assume there’s at least some legs here
I don't see a lot of Epstein obsessed voters crossing over, but I can certainly see them sitting out. And base turnout is even more important in midterm elections.
not some, a lot!!
I'm not by any means sure that VA leans hard enough Democratic for it to be smart to get rid of a commission there and go back to unlimited gerrymandering.
Yeah there is still an outside chance Republicans could win a trifecta in a bad environment (Minnesota is in this same boat) here. In states like this, we should probably want commissions. I’d add Nevada too at this point.
The Nevada Dem gerrymander has been really successful. They lost the popular vote in the state assembly 45.6-53.1 last year but still held a 27-15 majority.
But if there is a Republican governor in a redistricting, the gerrymander likely goes away.
Good point
Hopefully Aaron Ford leads Democrats to a comeback next year.
Too hard in VA. To get things on the ballot, has to pass 2 general assembly sessions. And not sure why "polite" but otherwise Dem NoVA voters would overturn something they just passed.
It wasn’t struck down.
Punchbowls notes that Republicans can be reduced to 2-3 seats if California Dema violate the VRA similar to Texas Reps.
Very hard to imagine AA and Latino legislators agreeing to this in CA....
NY could bring back the Hochulmander, dooming Lawler and putting LaLota/Malliotakis in big trouble. NJ could draw out Kean and even Van Drew.
Colorado could very well be 8-0. I imagine normally they’d go for a CO-04 vote sink, but given who represents it they have different ideas.
Are you reversing Biden and Trump in the second clause there? Just checking
Among those who voted in the 2024 presidential election, respondents were nearly equally split
on whether they had selected Trump (36%) or Democratic challenger Vice President Kamala
Harris (37%). But when asked how they would vote if the same election were held today, 35%
said they would choose Harris for president, but just 30% said they would choose Trump again.
The main part.
The state senate is gonna be really tough. If they can do it, they need to put an independent redistricting on the ballot here to avoid another 2010 scenario where Republicans have a trifecta and can gerrymander everything. Yeah sure, Dems may have a good chance at still having the state Supreme Court to stop that in 2031 but that seems like a band aid to cover up a mortal wound.
I hope PA Dems are aware of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court retention elections this year! Yes to keeping all three Democratic aligned justices.
I hope Earle-Sears loses in a blowout this year and Dems win all three statewide races, plus 60 seats in the House of Delegates.
Duh. Running as a Republican in Virginia after Trump personally fires a shit ton of people who live in your state was always going to be a problem.
Graham 1000%
Joe McCarthy I’d never heard before though… that would explain a lot
Roy Cohn! McCarthy's attorney also gay?
Cohn definitely was.
Didn’t he die of AIDS at the peak of the crisis?
Yes. But he called it liver cancer.
There’s no real evidence that he was. Other than his association with Cohn.
From what we know, he was an alcoholic and dim-witted. He had been privy to a report of suspected Communists in the State Department and instead of surgically going after and exposing them (like Alger Hiss), he went scorched earth across many sectors and ruined many livelihoods. Senator Johnny Iselin in "The Manchurian Candidate" was a spot-on facsimile of him, including his inability to keep the number of suspected Communists consistent from speech to speech.
That's why "openly" is an important qualifier, LGBTQ+ people have been around from the beginning.
I'm agreeing with you :)
Craig just had a wide stance.
And liked to practice tap dancing at MSP Airport’s men’s room, as one does
Lindsay Graham and Tim Scott are 110% LGBTQ.
South Carolina, the gayest state
Which is why Graham is so especially petrified of Trump. If Graham ever got on Trump’s bad side this is the first thing Trump would use to attack him. I can just hear Trump saying “I’ve heard some things about Lindsay Graham…”.
That wouldn't be enough to do much, would it, considering that everyone's heard things?
Trump saying it would cause a whole lot more people (I.e. his MAGA base) to believe it and would bring a lot more awareness to it.
Sure, especially in the case of people who don't usually pay attention to anything but what's on conspiracy sites. I guess we don't know how much of a difference it might make in voting.
I guess we would need to see how bad the map is. I think if Kaptur retires, OH-09 is probably gone even without a redraw unfortunately.
Wouldn't the GOP controlled Ohio Board of Elections purposefully distort and exaggerate the repeal referendum wording? They did that on the independent redistricting amendment last year and successfully got it voted down.
I would love to see the OH Supreme Court majority get narrowed down from 6-1 to 5-2 if Dems and independent voters are mad enough.
The fact that Republicans defended the current redistricting commission (stacked in their favor) as being something that prevents gerrymandering, I think it could lead to an actual successful legit commission ballot campaign if Republicans go too crazy on this redraw. If they try and pull something ridiculous looking with OH-01 (the only way to make that district R leaning), how can they possibly argue that the current commission prevents gerrymandering?
They can argue that because Republicans are habitual liars and Republican voters believe the lies or are so stupid and brainwashed, they can't tell the difference and don't care. So yes, it's worth trying, but let's not have confidence that it'll work.
The problem has been that the GOP Secretary of State will play games with the language that appears on the ballot. They have done this twice, and the partisan hacks on the Ohio Supreme Court will allow this.
Perry needs to be gone yesterday.
Gone like the other Perry, Rick Perry, hopefully!
You should focus on Iowa State Senate District 1 Special Election. Could be a game changer.
We've written about it in detail twice:
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-democrats-in-two-red?open=false#%C2%A7special-elections
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-democrats-land-first-03f?open=false#%C2%A7special-elections
If there have been further developments you think we should be aware of, please let us know!
Go Gavin Newsom!
Wow. California redistricting! California Democrats may actually attempt to do this thing. It isn't just Newsom daydreaming.
~~~
From: https://politicalwire.com/2025/07/17/house-democrats-ready-to-redistrict-california/
House Democrats Ready to Redistrict California
“California Democrats are charging ahead with an ambitious and potentially expensive plan to squeeze between five and seven more Democratic seats out of their congressional map,” Punchbowl News reports."
“California Democrats were overwhelmingly on board with drawing a new map, but members want input in how the lines are drawn.”
Yes, I am very skeptical that this will happen, or is even doable. At least the primary will be in June, not March. In presidential years the CA primary is nowadays held in early March, but without it we are back to the traditional June primary in the Golden State.
Even if such a ballot measure succeeds (and I am doubtful that it would pass), that is not much time to draw the districts, have candidate filing and get to early June with it all ready to go.
A one-time push back of the primary date from June to say Aug could easily be included in the deal to get more time if needed.
The far bigger problem is how to market a gerrymander to the voters.
The GOP, California & national party, will fight tooth and nail, spend massively, and will demonize this scheme in every way possible.
I was skeptical before, but this could work. Since we have supermajorities in both CA chambers (meaning the Repubs can do nothing to stop it), they can place a Proposition on the ballot for the electorate to vote on changing the state constitution.
There would need to be a special statewide election called (either by the legislature or the governor) just for this ballot measure well in advance of the June 2026 primary to allow time for the new CD lines to be drawn. (it might be best to push back the June date a few months, too).
Also, I would just change it to just remove the House redistricting role from the Citizens Commission, while leaving it in place to still do the state legislative lines in 2032 (which might be a good idea to help sell the Proposition to the voters).
Here's another story. From the Sacramento Bee:
Gov. Gavin Newsom mulls special election to redistrict California
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article310796670.html
I'm thinking the way CA districts are currently structured there's less potential for dummymanders than in Texas?
Called it:https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/world/americas/trump-brazil-tariffs-lula-support.html
In these dark times, it is heartening and highly amusing how Agent Orange is unwittingly helping liberal and democratically-minded parties throughout the Western World and elsewhere: Canada, Australia, Germany, Norway, Brazil, etc etc.
Yeah he's been single-handidly pushing out life-vests to previously doomed left of center global leaders since February.
Until we can get a national federal law uniformly putting commissions in place in all states, I guess we have no choice but to do this. I’m still very disappointed that Dems didn’t go more aggressive in NY (I.e. attaching parts of Lower Manhattan to Staten Island for NY-11 and swapping out Lawler’s best parts of Rockland for more of Westchester in NY-17). That probably would have given Dems two more seats.
https://x.com/electionsjoe/status/1945636913110479274
Electionsjoe eliminates an Austin and an Houston seat and it's a dummymander if Democrats win Biden margins among minorities. (which imo is a very real possibility)
What are we looking at here? The two pictures look identical.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/harry-enten-reality-check-democrats_n_6878be27e4b0b08368f4e74d
Saw this in HuffPost today. Apparently Dems are struggling in polling in the generic ballot, particularly compared to 2018 and 2006. The CNN data analyst seems to think we’re headed for another 2024.
Thoughts? Not sure how I feel about this so I’m curious as to what those here think.
I don't trust anything that comes from CNN. They're the new Fox.
Have Trump job approval at 44-56.
Me neither, to be frank. Hence why I asked.
There's going to be a lot of this garbage over the next year and a half, because (1.) the legacy media want another "fizzled wave" à la 2022, and (2.) the legacy media are dying and will do anything to get views and clicks, and they know that giving Democrats heartburn is a surefire way to do so.
No one said it was going to be easy but Enten is a clickbait sideshow. Ask yourself if gop internals were looking close would they be trying this Texas redistricting stuff? Would trump be publicly pleading with Nunn to run again in Iowa?
I think the generic numbers reflect more Dem voter frustration with Congressional leadership than some quiet support for trump. Those folks are much likely to come home as the daily nonsense from trump and crew continue. I’m not saying we should light victory cigars but the concern trolling by Enten is just engagement fishing from a more obnoxious version of Kornacki.
We really should replace Schumer with Klobuchar or Schatz, he's taking the party down. I am not even talking about his actions, his image is really bad and his approval is so much worse than Trump.
Not Schatz. Did Klobuchar vote against the Trump budget bill Schumer and Schatz voted for?
Yep, not long ago Enten was touting some poll that (he claimed) showed that "MOAH AMERICANS AGREE WITH MAGA THAN EVAH BEFOAH!"
Yeah, sure Harry.
I feel like the Peter Principle applies to Enten. He was great on the 538 podcast, but his schtick doesn't translate well on a more mainstream platform like CNN IMO.
There’s hardly been any GCB polling.
Right. Going off of votehub barely any high quality firms have done GCB polling the past 2 months.
I think there's a real possibility that generic D continues to do badly, but individual D candidates, even in red or pink areas, do well. It may be that '26 is not as much a national election as some recent mid-terms. The old "I hate Congress, but love my Congressperson" may become "I don't like Democrats overall, but my person is good." And it doesn't have to be someone who's an insufferable moderate, either.
Harry Enten seems to forget that Democrats have been sweeping races all across the country. And not just in blue states.
Also, with all due respect, pollsters were wrong about 2024. Now all of a sudden we’re led to believe they know 2026 will be another 2024?
We now have years of high-quality polling (i.e., actual election results) that shows that Trump's coalition fails to turn out when he's not on the ballot—including in a 2022 midterm that should have been a layup for the GOP.
Yes although it should be noted that in the 2018 midterms Democrats got a net -2 loss in the Senate even while gaining two seats. This takes into account the four Senate seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.
FL had pretty good turnout on both the Democratic Party and GOP's side.
It's in vogue for Democrats/center-left voters more broadly to hate on the Democratic party so that likely depresses numbers.
Right. If a pollster asked me if I approve the the job the Dem party is doing today, I'd say hell no. If they asked who I would vote for in the next election, I'd say Dems, ofc. If they asked which party better reflects your values, I'd again say the Dems. If there was a viable center left party that had better leadership than Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, my answers might change. But as much as I wish Rainbow Dash and Twilight Sparkle were real, we don't live in Equestria.
It's completely stupid to compare 2006 and even 2018 midterm numbers any way.