Morning Digest: Democrats unveil plan to redraw Colorado's map for 2028

The new proposal would likely shrink the GOP delegation to just one member: Lauren Boebert

Leading Off

CO Redistricting

A new Democratic-backed group unexpectedly announced on Wednesday that it would seek to place a measure on the November ballot asking voters to temporarily adopt a new congressional map in response to Republican gerrymandering in other states.

The organization, which is called Coloradans for a Level Playing Field, filed four different proposals with state officials but says it plans to qualify just one. All would accomplish the same goal in different ways, with the ultimate effect of enacting a new map starting in 2028 that would favor Democrats in seven of the state’s eight districts.

Under the current lines, which were drawn by an independent redistricting commission that voters enshrined in the state Constitution by a landslide in 2018, Democrats and Republicans hold four seats apiece.

By contrast, the proposed map, which can be found at the top of this post or in interactive format on Dave’s Redistricting App, would seek to turn two normally red districts blue while making a swingy GOP-held seat more Democratic.

Both the 3rd District, represented by Republican Jeff Hurd, and the 5th, served by Republican Jeff Crank, would move around 15 points to the left when looking at the results of the 2024 presidential election. Kamala Harris would have won the former 51-46 and the latter by a slightly larger 52-45 margin, according to data from the Redistricting Data Hub uploaded to DRA.

The highly competitive 8th, meanwhile, would get around 10 points bluer, giving Harris a 53-44 edge. The four current Democratic districts all would have voted for Harris by double-digit margins, with the 7th being the closest at 55-42. Lauren Boebert’s deep red 4th District, meanwhile, would become a proverbial GOP “vote sink” by taking on even more conservative turf from neighboring districts.

To put one of its proposals before voters, Coloradans for a Level Playing Field will need to gather at least 124,238 signatures by Aug. 3 to make the November ballot, as well as an amount equal to 2% of the number of registered voters in each of the state’s 35 Senate districts.

This costly and time-consuming approach is necessary because Democrats are just short of the two-thirds majorities in the legislature they’d need to refer a measure by a simple vote. (They’d need just one more seat in each chamber, which they could very well gain this fall, but waiting for such an eventuality would delay a new map past 2028.)

Though organizers have put forward four initiatives, they essentially amount to two different plans. Under the first approach, the rules establishing Colorado’s redistricting commission would be stripped from the Constitution and reenacted as ordinary statutes. Meanwhile, the proposed map would take effect for 2028 and 2030, with the commission once again drawing new districts following the next census.

(A variant on this plan would split this proposal into two separate measures—one altering the Constitution, the other enacting the new map—likely to avoid running afoul of Colorado’s ban on ballot measures that cover more than one subject.)

The second approach would accomplish the same goals by directly amending the Constitution to temporarily suspend the commission for the next two election cycles and instead adopt the group’s preferred map.

Both face different obstacles. Initiatives that simply repeal language from the Constitution require only a simple majority to pass, but those that add text need to win a 55% supermajority. That makes the first option a lower lift at the ballot box.

However, that approach could run afoul of a 2003 ruling by the state Supreme Court, which held that the state Constitution forbade mid-decade redistricting—by either lawmakers or by ballot initiative—after Republicans tried to redraw the congressional map following their takeover of state government in the 2002 midterms.

The court’s membership has since turned over completely, though, so it’s possible organizers are hoping that a different slate of justices might be willing to revisit the matter.

According to the New York Times, Coloradans for a Level Playing Field has the support of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee and is “expected to receive funding” from the House Majority PAC, which is the top Democratic super PAC involved in House races.

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The Downballot Podcast

The big Colorado redistricting surprise

Out of the blue, major Democratic players launched a bold new campaign to redraw Colorado’s congressional districts this week. On the latest episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Democrats are taking their plan directly to voters, what kinds of changes it would make to the map, and what the political hurdles and legal pitfalls look like.

The Davids also discuss two Arizona Republicans who abandoned their campaigns for public office on back-to-back days last week, despite earning endorsements from Donald Trump—and why these twin dropouts show the growing limits of Trump’s influence on GOP primaries. Speaking of Trump, the hosts flag a special election coming up in his literal backyard: Next month, Democrats will have the chance to flip the Florida House district that includes none other than Mar-a-Lago.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

Democrats in the Virginia Senate are working on a tweak to the congressional map that both chambers passed last week, one that would make the proposed 2nd District—a top Democratic target—a few points bluer. Tyler Englander of 8News says that both chambers are likely to pass the revised map on Thursday.

Senate

Nebraska

Tuesday was the deadline for elected officials in Nebraska to file to appear on the May 12 primary ballot. This rule, which is the only one of its kind in the 50 states, applies to both incumbents running for reelection and to officeholders seeking a different post than the one they currently hold.

Everyone else, however, still has until March 2 to submit paperwork if they want to run in the primary. Independent candidates like Dan Osborn, who is challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, are subject to a third deadline on Aug. 3.

Governors

NH-Gov

Former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington on Wednesday became the first prominent Democrat to announce a campaign against New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican who is seeking a second two-year term.

Warmington, who lost to former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig in the 2024 primary for this office, joins Jonathan Kiper, a former restaurant owner who took a distant third place in that same nomination contest. Warmington, though, may face a better-known intraparty opponent on Sept. 8.

Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern, who is reportedly considering a bid, responded to Warmington’s entry with a statement urging Democrats to “look to the future as we work to beat Kelly Ayotte.” He added, “I look forward to saying more soon.”

Warmington, who works as a health care attorney, was elected in 2020 to the Executive Council, a unique and influential five-member body. Warmington spent the next four years as the sole Democrat on the panel, whose powers include approval over any state contracts over $10,000; the governor’s appointments to the judiciary and state agencies; gubernatorial pardons; and a large portion of the budget.

Warmington sought a promotion in 2024 when Republican Gov. Chris Sununu decided not to seek reelection, but she found herself locked in an especially negative primary contest with Craig.

In the final weeks of that campaign, the ex-mayor launched an ad criticizing Warmington’s past work as a lobbyist for one of the companies at the center of the opioid crisis, Purdue Pharma. The commercial highlighted testimony Warmington offered before the state legislature in 2002 in which she praised OxyContin as a “miracle drug” in an unsuccessful attempt to block a bill that would have tightened prescription drug regulations.

Warmington responded with her own ad saying her lobbying days were “long before Purdue Pharma’s lies were known” and argued that Craig had failed to address homelessness and drug use during her time leading the state’s largest city. Craig, though, prevailed 48-42, with Kipper taking 9%.

Craig’s victory, however, came with less than two months to go before the general election, leaving little time to prepare for the fall campaign.

Ayotte, a former U.S. senator who went through a far easier primary, had already begun attacking Craig’s tenure as mayor even before either woman won their respective party’s nominations, and she kept up the assault during the general election. Ayotte prevailed 54-44 even as Kamala Harris carried the state 51-48.

Warmington, though, believes that Ayotte won’t fare quite so well now that she has to answer for the problems Granite Staters are dealing with.

“The property tax bills are skyrocketing because of her school voucher program,” Warmington told WMUR. “Health care costs are through the roof because of her and Donald Trump’s premium increases.”

The challenger also focused on the ongoing fallout from ICE’s plans to build a detention center in the state. Warmington said that Ayotte must answer, “[I]s she for this facility or is she not?”

House

CT-03

Attorney Damjan DeNoble said Tuesday that he was ending his primary campaign against Rep. Rosa DeLauro, an 82-year-old Democrat who is seeking a 19th term in Connecticut’s safely blue 3rd District.

DeLauro attracted outsized attention earlier this month when she told a group of local clergy, “I’m not calling for abolishing ICE,” which prompted a tense exchange.

After telling participants that she had to approach lawmaking cautiously, according to NPR, Rev. Jack Perkins Davidson responded, “I would rather you vote for what is morally correct.”

“Don’t talk to me about my own morality,” the congresswoman fired back, prompting another attendee, Rev. Nathan Empsall, to reply, “Don’t tell your constituents what they can and can’t talk to you about. What you are voting for is not moral.”

However, DeLauro’s intraparty critics have struggled to put together a strong effort to oust her.

Neither DeNoble nor Andrew Rice, a microbiologist who is now DeLauro’s only primary opponent, reported having any money in the bank at the end of 2025. While DeLauro, who is the top Democrat on the powerful Appropriations Committee, had only $240,000 on hand, no big names have expressed interest in taking her on.

IL-02, IL-07, IL-08

Two more deep-pocketed groups are getting involved in the March 17 Democratic primaries for open U.S. House seats in the Chicago area.

Politico reported on Tuesday that Fairshake, a super PAC funded by the cryptocurrency industry, will spend $2 million to attack two state legislators who supported a crypto regulation bill last year: state Sen. Robert Peters, who is campaigning for the 2nd District, and state Rep. La Shawn Ford, who is running nearby in the 7th. Both constituencies are safely Democratic.

The outlet reported the following day that another group affiliated with the AI industry called Think Big was spending $2.2 million each to help two former U.S. representatives looking to reclaim their old seats over a decade after they left Congress. (In both cases, these seven-figure sums are being divided equally.)

One of these beneficiaries is former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., whose father and namesake, civil rights leader Jesse Jackson, died Tuesday. The younger Jackson, who resigned from the 2nd District in 2012 shortly before pleading guilty to federal corruption charges, faces Peters and eight other opponents in the primary.

The other is former Rep. Melissa Bean, who lost reelection in a previous version of the 8th District during the 2010 GOP wave. Bean has seven opponents in the nomination contest for the 8th, which is now reliably blue territory.

Both Jackson and Bean are also backed by Leading the Future, a separate super PAC funded by wealthy figures in the AI sector.

MD-05

Charles County Commission President Reuben Collins told Maryland Matters on Monday that he’d enter the busy Democratic primary for the open 5th Congressional District. Last month, Collins became chair of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, a regional planning body made up of 24 jurisdictions.

NJ-12

New Jersey Assemblywoman Tennille McCoy tells the New Jersey Globe she’s unlikely to join the packed Democratic primary for the open 12th District, a statement that came two months after she appeared all but certain to run.

McCoy filed paperwork with the FEC not long before Christmas and informed Politico she was “like 95 percent” sure she’d run to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, but she now says that “[m]ore than likely, we will not be running.” She added, however, that she hasn’t quite ruled anything out.

New Jersey’s candidate filing deadline is March 23.

PA-07, PA State Senate

Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley announced Wednesday that he was leaving the Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie and would instead seek his party’s nomination to challenge GOP state Sen. Jarrett Coleman.

Several notable Democrats remain in the May 19 primary to face Mackenzie in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, a Lehigh Valley constituency that, according to calculations by The Downballot, Donald Trump carried 51-48 in 2024.

Mackenzie, who won his seat that year by narrowly unseating Rep. Susan Wild, ended last year with over $1.8 million banked ahead of what will be a closely watched general election.

Former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell finished 2025 with a roughly $610,000 to $340,000 cash advantage over his nearest intraparty competitor, firefighter Bob Brooks. But Brooks, who leads the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association, sports high-profile endorsements from Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and the SEIU.

Former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure and Carol Obando-Derstine, a former utility company supervisor backed by Wild, also had six figures in their respective campaign accounts. Another Democrat, businessman Aiden Gonzalez, entered the race in January after the start of the new fundraising quarter.

Pinsley, meanwhile, is now one of four Democrats running against Coleman, who won a spot in the state Senate in 2022 by defeating Pinsley 54-46. Keystone State Democrats are targeting Coleman as part of their drive to end more than three decades of GOP control of the upper chamber.

Morning Digest: The battle is on for control of the Pennsylvania legislature

TX-23

A former staffer for Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales came forward with new evidence that the Texas congressman had an affair with Regina Santos-Aviles, a subordinate who died by suicide in September, in an interview published by the San Antonio Express-News on Tuesday evening.

A day later, the paper shared the first public comments from Santos-Aviles’ estranged husband, who said his wife had admitted to the relationship and accused Gonzales of having “abused his power.”

In its first story, the Express-News reported that one of Santos-Aviles’ colleagues, who was not identified by name in the article, provided the paper with a text message from last April in which Santos-Aviles talked about her “affair with our boss.”

In its follow-up piece, Santos-Aviles’ widower, Adrian Aviles, said that he discovered “very sexual” messages between his late wife and the congressman, offering a scathing assessment of her one-time boss.

“I said the truth would come to light when it’s time, and the time is now,” Aviles told the Express-News. “Tony abused his power. He should have held himself to a higher standard as a congressional leader.”

The congressman, who is married, responded to the paper’s Tuesday article with a statement that neither confirmed nor denied the paper’s report. He instead argued that Brandon Herrera, a far-right primary challenger whom he narrowly defeated in 2024, was exploiting Santos-Aviles’ death ahead of their rematch on March 3.

“It’s shameful that Brandon Herrera is using a disgruntled former staffer to smear her memory and score political points, conveniently pushing this out the very day early voting started,” Gonzales said. “I am not going to engage in these personal smears and instead will remain focused on helping President Trump secure the border and improve the lives of all Texans.”

Those words came shortly after Herrera called on Gonzales to resign as the congressman for Texas’ 23rd District, a sprawling constituency in the western part of the state.

“Similar behavior in our military would lead to court-martial and dismissal from service,” Herrera said of Gonzales, a Navy veteran who served in Afghanistan and Iraq. The challenger also argued that if Gonzales were to win the primary, “Democrats will seize the opportunity to flip a reliable Republican seat blue.”

The 23rd, which is home to a large Latino electorate, was one of the most competitive House districts in the nation during the last decade, but Trump’s huge gains with Texas Latino and Republican gerrymandering after the 2020 census transformed it into a safely red seat. Trump carried this constituency 57-42 in 2024, while Gonzales won his third term in a 62-38 landslide. (The GOP’s new map did not change Trump’s toplines.)

The 23rd was anything but a top Democratic target when the new year began, and none of the four Democrats who are running for it reported raising much money in 2025. (Updated reports are due on Thursday evening.)

Trump’s declining numbers with Hispanic voters, however, give Democrats some reason to be hopeful that this seat could be an unlikely pickup opportunity no matter what happens next in the increasingly ugly GOP primary.

The allegations surrounding Gonzales first became public in October when the Daily Mail, a British tabloid, reported that the congressman began his affair with Santos-Aviles in 2021, during his first term in office. The story came one month after Santos-Aviles’ death, which authorities later concluded was the result of self-immolation.

Gonzales avoided answering questions until November, when he was asked about the rumors surrounding his relationship to Santos-Aviles during a panel at the Texas Tribune Festival.

Gonzales at the time pushed back and insisted that “[t]he rumors are completely untruthful, and Regina’s family has asked for privacy.” When the moderator asked what rumors he was referring to, he responded, “Just in general. I said all rumors in general. Why don’t you reach out to our office.”

None of this deterred Donald Trump, who had remained neutral during Gonzales’ first contest against Herrera, from endorsing the incumbent the following month.

There were no new public developments over the ensuing months, even as the second bout between Gonzales and Herrera grew sharply negative. The challenger launched Islamophobic ads targeting Gonzales, whom he accused of having “voted with Biden and every Democrat to bring unvetted Afghan Muslims,” but he didn’t air ads referencing the congressman’s alleged affair.

Morning Digest: Another nasty battle unfolds for House Republican who barely survived in 2024

The Express-News’ story, however, reignited a new round of unwelcome scrutiny for the incumbent. The paper’s editorial board said Tuesday evening that it was rescinding its endorsement of Gonzales and would no longer support anyone in the Republican primary.

Gonzales and Herrera, though, are not the only Republicans running. The field features two other options: former Rep. Quico Canseco, who represented a previous version of the 23rd for a single term well over a decade ago, and logistics manager Keith Barton.

While neither Canseco nor Barton has attracted much money or attention, their presence could prevent anyone from winning the majority of the vote necessary to avert a runoff on May 26.

VA-07

Democratic Del. Dan Helmer announced Wednesday that he’d run for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District if voters green-light Democrats’ proposed new map on April 21.

Helmer, who helped plan and carry out his party’s unexpected drive to redraw the state’s districts, entered the race with a long list of endorsements. Two names in particular stand out: Rep. Eugene Vindman, who represents the current 7th but has said he’d run in the revamped 1st District, and former Gov. Ralph Northam.

Helmer, though, isn’t the only Democrat who wants to represent the new-look 7th, which Kamala Harris would have carried 53-45. Former federal prosecutor J.P. Cooney, who served as the top deputy for special counsel Jack Smith, announced last week he’d run here if the remap goes through.

Helmer, who served in the Army before entering politics, is waging his third campaign for Congress.

He sought his party’s nomination in 2018 to take on Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock in the 10th District in Northern Virginia, but he took a distant fourth place in the primary behind state Sen. Jennifer Wexton. Wexton defeated Comstock that fall, while Helmer earned a spot in the House of Delegates the next year by unseating a longtime GOP incumbent.

Helmer sought the 10th again in 2024 after Wexton announced she would retire, and this time, he looked like a frontrunner to capture the Democratic nomination.

However, Helmer drew unwelcome headlines during the final week of the primary after four current and former members of the Loudoun County Democratic Committee put out a statement saying he’d engaged in “inappropriate behavior” with a committee member in 2018. The woman in question also accused him of groping her.

Helmer denied the allegations but lost the crowded race 30-27 to state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, who went on to win the general election.

Helmer filed a defamation suit the next year against his accuser and two others he alleged participated in what he called a “conspiracy” to cost him the Democratic nomination. Helmer, who easily won another term in the legislature last year, later reached settlements with each of the defendants for undisclosed terms.

Poll Pile

• LA-Sen (R): JMC Analytics (R) for John Fleming: John Fleming: 26, Julia Letlow: 25, Bill Cassidy (inc): 22, undecided: 26.

• LA-Sen (R runoff): JMC for Fleming:

  • Fleming: 48, Cassidy (inc): 28.

  • Fleming: 40, Letlow: 31.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Emerson College for Nexstar Media: Steve Hilton (R): 17, Eric Swalwell (D): 14, Chad Bianco (R): 14, Katie Porter (D): 10, Tom Steyer (D): 9, Xavier Becerra (D): 4, others 3% or less, undecided: 21. (Dec.: Bianco: 13, Swalwell: 12, Hilton: 12, Porter: 11.)

• IL-07 (D): Upswing Research (D) for Thomas Fisher: La Shawn Ford: 23, Melissa Conyears-Ervin: 15, Kina Collins: 12, Jason Friedman: 10, Thomas Fisher: 4, Richard Boykin: 4, others 1% or less. The poll was in the field Jan. 7-10.

• TX-15 (D): GBAO (D) for Bobby Pulido: Bobby Pulido: 68, Ada Cuellar: 19. The poll was in the field Jan. 24-27.

• TX-19 (R): Harper Polling (R) for Tom Sell: Tom Sell: 28, Matt Smith: 9, Abraham Enriquez: 8, Jason Corley: 2, other candidates 1% or less, undecided: 51.