Wasn’t there data before? I recall seeing something from I think Pew about it.
I don’t blame you for being angry. That being said, I am curious — do you believe there is any hope whatsoever for the American people to recover from this, or do you believe it is hopeless for Americans? And on a related note, is the hatred deep enough that I should reconsider travel abroad? Might I face harassment if I do?
I see. Again, I don’t blame you after all this. This was a colossal fuckup on Americans’ part and TBH my opinion of the American people is similarly low.
Again, though, I won’t have issues if I travel, right? I’m potentially visiting family in Seattle soon and I’m waffling on whether I should visit Vancouver. I’m at no risk, right? Sorry if this question sounds ridiculous by the way. (Admittedly I’m not emotionally 100% right now following some drama in my personal life. Maybe I shouldn’t be posting.)
Yeah I get it. Sorry my question was so insane. As I said, I’m going through some miserable drama in my personal life, and I’m very emotionally compromised as a result. Perhaps I shouldn’t be posting period, as I said, until I get myself back to normal.
I'm currently in Berlin and have yet to experience any hostility, though to be fair I only arrived on Tuesday morning. I also experienced no hostility during a week in Canada last spring.
Thank you! I actually bought a scale to curb my tendency to eat here like I'm on vacation and gain weight. My girlfriend and I are here on 6-month freelancers' visas, so we hope to get some good work in the coming weeks and months.
I think you all will relate when I tell you that this past night, I dreamt at least twice and I think 3 times that ICE was looking for me, and the last time, I was upset enough to get up out of bed and get a drink of water. I'm happy to be here, but my brain cannot escape the United States, and indeed our visas are only temporary and we will be back for about a month starting in late March and then again in mid-August and already plan to be in New York in the run-up to the midterms, in case our bodies are needed to protect the vote, although if God forbid hundreds of people are being shot in the streets at that point, maybe we would stay here, hopefully on a new visa...
It's interesting to see how differently we've done downballot between Arizona and Georgia. Arizona we have a real chance at holding a trifecta after the midterms, and possibly every statewide office as well. The latter is possible in Georgia, although less likely than Arizona, while a trifecta is exceedingly unlikely.
They're about equally competitive at the presidential level, became competitive at the same time, and became competitive due to the same trends of educated/wealthier suburban voters shifting towards us. Of course our coalitions within the two states are different due to different demographics, but they've been following strongly parallel paths for a over decade now.
That the Arizona GOP likes to run batshits statewide has helped us as well.
Georgia primary voters were wise enough to turn back GOP challengers to both Kemp and Raffensperger in 2022 (though nominating Herschel Walker was a pretty boneheaded move).
Yeah, this is an underrated point. Kemp is a pretty normal Bush-era Republican all things considered (though he’d have been on the conservative end back then for sure), and Georgia is generally pretty well run for being a longtime red state compared to a lot of its neighbors. Arizona Repubs post-Ducey… nah.
I mean, even Kimberly Yee (who was until recently thought to be a "reasonable" Republican and a future gubernatorial contender) has seemingly gone down the crazy rabbit hole and is challenging State Superintendent Tom Horne on a platform of...removing what few restrictions are placed on how homeschooling parents can spend taxpayer funds.
I really hope the Democratic candidate wins this one.
The "Freedom Caucus" is so intent on making the AZ GOP unelectable that they are primarying both the GOP Corporation Commissioners up for statewide re-election this year. Could be an opportunity for Dems, though I'm not thrilled about our slate.
Agreed - a lot of these midterm Republican retirements that are being heralded as Democratic victories have just come from either old or long serving politicians, like Mark Amodei, for example.
Either way, I hope she loses her bid. She may have a D next to her name, but she needs to be tied down to her husband and how he's made life more expensive for Nebraskans.
We don't know what she stands for. Spouses are allowed to have there own opinions! And if her views and record (if she has one) is substantially different her husband's, she shouldn't be judged by who she happens to be married to.
I'm pretty sure that Eric Cantor's wife Diana is a mainstream Democrat (supposedly she worked behind the scenes to help Spanberger defeat Brat in 2018 too, which is pretty delicious).
There's a risk that some swing voters who might otherwise prefer a Dem majority Colorado delegation might see potentially having Boebert as their only GOP House member as a reason to vote against redistricting.
According to this, the fuckup that democrats do not have a top tier candidate in Louisiana is exacerbated by the fact that Bill Cassidy, the incumbent, is currently polling third in his primary. This is a colossal fuckup by Kirsten Gillibrand (current DSCC chair), Chuck Schumer (senate minority leader), and Ken Martin (chair of the DNC). Why is no one with power calling for any of them to resign their leadership roles?
I don't live in Louisiana. Have never lived in Louisiana. It is not my job to find candidates to run in Louisiana, unlike Gillibrand, Schumer, or Martin. But how about Helena Moreno or LaToya Cantrell or Troy Carter or Cleo Fields?
And Helena Moreno has been NOLA Mayor for five weeks. If she wanted to be a Senator or thought she could win that she wouldn't have run for her current office.
its hard to find good candidates in places like LA, MS, AL, OK, etc... even when you get someone phenomenal, like Mike Espy grade, they have a titanic climb ahead of them, with very little odds of winning. Even Doug Jones, who basically got about as poor an opponent as possible, barely scraped by with a sub 2% win. So essentially, anyone willing to run is taking an almost guaranteed L on their resume, with the financial, personal and political costs that entails. Anyone with serious aspirations is generally unwilling to do that, which helps keep those state benches relatively shallow.
Some years ago, after seeing a winnable race not seriously contested again, i decided that rather than grumbling about recruitment failures to try doing it, identified a good candidate and emailed them urging them to run. Got a polite reply, flattered anyone would think this, but claiming they wouldn't be a good candidate.
Disagree. I don’t want another Jaime Harrison situation where everyone thinks an unwinnable seat is suddenly winnable and the money that goes there does not go to other, more important races. I don’t think we could have won with anyone.
Disagree. The only races we are certain to lose are those we don’t bother to contest. I agree with North Star that Louisiana’s Senate seat should be contested, and strongly. (Recently, in another state, also failed to register a candidate for a state supreme court seat...)
As for money, it’s not like there is a constant, given pot – or a zero-sum game competing for a share of it. In these 2026 Midterm Elections, I don’t think we will see a shortage of money for Democratic candidates.
In Texas, James Talarico strikes me as an unusual candidate. How many other seminarians does the Democratic Party have running for Senate? Or for any other office?
Not necessarily an independent, mind you, I just meant an unusual candidate in general. ArcticStones mentioned Talarico as another example. Unusual candidates can take many forms.
No no it's far more than that. It's building and maintaining a grassroots network and organization with local voters and the community. If we keep dismissing every district or state that even remotely too red, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. And you know what? Many of those voters like in rural districts will respond likewise. Why should they see a reason to vote for Democrats if Democrats don't make the effort to engage and reach out to them? Howard Dean was onto something big that we can't forget.
The problem with LA is that the most high profile Democrat in the state, John Bel Edwards, passed on running for the Senate.
Mitch Landrieu, the brother of Mary Landrieu, the last Democratic Senator representing the state, is in his mid 60's and would not be in the Senate for longer than two terms if he ran. Of course, if he were to have jumped in the race he would have faced the same Senator who unseated Senator Landrieu back in 2014, Senator Bill Cassidy.
It's premature to even think in these terms when we don't have enough of a pool of choices for Democrats to chose from.
I don't love the Democratic leadership, but we have strong candidates in every state that Trump won less than 60% of the vote in. I'd love to get strong candidates in deep red states too, but realistically Louisiana is a bit out of reach, it's probably only our 13th-best target. Whiffing on recruitment there isn't the end of the world.
So "Wall Street's favorite Democrat" and corporate lobbyist Melissa Bean who cut taxes for the rich and corporations is backed by two A.I super PACs and AIPAC's super PAC now. She would be dead on arrival in most districts due to her record but this is a suburban district held by Raja Krishnamoorthi so who knows.
The PA state senate 16 is a super swing district, overlapping 2 competitive US House Districts: PA-01 and PA-07, and further downballot overlaps potentially competitive state house districts 143 and 187, as well as a couple of solid D state house districts (132, 134) and some longer shot Republican ones (131, 145, 183).
Most voters in PA-S-16 can cast 3 different votes to replace Republicans - in the state house, state senate, and US House (also statewide Rs) making that part of the electoral map like a scrabble triple word score (to borrow a phrase from Field Team 6).
Anti-public education billionaire Jeffrey Yass, richest person in PA contributed hundreds of thousands to Republican Jarrett Coleman, more than all the funds Mark Pinsley had in the 2022 state senate campaign.
New England has historically been an elastic region. The difference is that 5/6 states here are so blue that it doesn't really matter most of the time.
But how does it compare to other counties, or Talarico's turf, or Hispanic counties? This seems like a headline designed to drive a narrative. (Also, 2022 did not have any noteworthy Dem primaries.)
There are similar stories in California and New York. This has firmly convinced me that the Supreme court needs to be packed, and new electioneering regulations need to be brought in by the next President.
Texas 23 is a textbook case of gerrymander. If districts are supposed to be compact, the 23rd is immense, sprawling from San Antonio to El Paso. At 48,000 square miles, it is larger than 29 states. No matter the outcome of the Tony Gonzales scandal, the Democratic nominee will be a distinct underdog in November.
It's not a gerrymander due to its size, the size is a necessity because of population density. But it does carve out areas of San Antonio in a particular way that makes it a gerrymander
It's an interesting math problem to figure out how Osborn can win. He lost by around 66,000 votes in 2024 vs Harris who lost by nearly 200,000. He needs to improve his margins in Douglas County (Omaha). He only overperformed Harris by 7 points, instead of the 15+ point overperformances in a lot of the rural counties. Doing 15 points better that Harris in Douglas would put him very close to an upset.
Lakshya Jain from "The Argument" says on a New Republic podcast that if the 2026 midterms were held right now, Dems would flip 20-25 House seats and 2-3 in the Senate.
A couple weeks ago someone compared Bitecofer to Robert Cahaly, the guy who runs Trafalgar, which seems right to me. She just assumes more Democrats whereas he just assumes more Republicans.
the hague exists, and as the years go by even if he pardons himself and everyone in the admin my litmus test for the 28 primary is who is going to commit to trying this administration for its crimes against humanity
i was unaware of anywhere in my comment where I suggested the icc had superpowers. However, pertinently, non-members of the Rome Statute may nevertheless consent to the jurisdiction of the ICC, which is what I am asking from any Democratic candidate that I donate to in 2028. Asking, not demanding.
See Zhu, Wenqi (2006). "On Co-Operation by States Not Party to the International Criminal Court" (PDF). International Review of the Red Cross (861). International Committee of the Red Cross: 87–110.
Wasn’t there data before? I recall seeing something from I think Pew about it.
I don’t blame you for being angry. That being said, I am curious — do you believe there is any hope whatsoever for the American people to recover from this, or do you believe it is hopeless for Americans? And on a related note, is the hatred deep enough that I should reconsider travel abroad? Might I face harassment if I do?
I see. Again, I don’t blame you after all this. This was a colossal fuckup on Americans’ part and TBH my opinion of the American people is similarly low.
Again, though, I won’t have issues if I travel, right? I’m potentially visiting family in Seattle soon and I’m waffling on whether I should visit Vancouver. I’m at no risk, right? Sorry if this question sounds ridiculous by the way. (Admittedly I’m not emotionally 100% right now following some drama in my personal life. Maybe I shouldn’t be posting.)
Yeah I get it. Sorry my question was so insane. As I said, I’m going through some miserable drama in my personal life, and I’m very emotionally compromised as a result. Perhaps I shouldn’t be posting period, as I said, until I get myself back to normal.
I don't think you will have any problems, just don't wear a MAGA hat or a USA hockey jersey.
I'm currently in Berlin and have yet to experience any hostility, though to be fair I only arrived on Tuesday morning. I also experienced no hostility during a week in Canada last spring.
enjoy your time!! enjoy the varous carbs, liquid and otherwise Germany has to offer!
Thank you! I actually bought a scale to curb my tendency to eat here like I'm on vacation and gain weight. My girlfriend and I are here on 6-month freelancers' visas, so we hope to get some good work in the coming weeks and months.
I think you all will relate when I tell you that this past night, I dreamt at least twice and I think 3 times that ICE was looking for me, and the last time, I was upset enough to get up out of bed and get a drink of water. I'm happy to be here, but my brain cannot escape the United States, and indeed our visas are only temporary and we will be back for about a month starting in late March and then again in mid-August and already plan to be in New York in the run-up to the midterms, in case our bodies are needed to protect the vote, although if God forbid hundreds of people are being shot in the streets at that point, maybe we would stay here, hopefully on a new visa...
I too think the U.S. creates problems instead of solving them
Ditto.
Since the U.S. is the superpower next door to Canada and China is far away, Canadians are absolutely right to see it as their biggest threat now.
So far at least I feel good about where we’re at here
It's interesting to see how differently we've done downballot between Arizona and Georgia. Arizona we have a real chance at holding a trifecta after the midterms, and possibly every statewide office as well. The latter is possible in Georgia, although less likely than Arizona, while a trifecta is exceedingly unlikely.
They're about equally competitive at the presidential level, became competitive at the same time, and became competitive due to the same trends of educated/wealthier suburban voters shifting towards us. Of course our coalitions within the two states are different due to different demographics, but they've been following strongly parallel paths for a over decade now.
That the Arizona GOP likes to run batshits statewide has helped us as well.
Georgia primary voters were wise enough to turn back GOP challengers to both Kemp and Raffensperger in 2022 (though nominating Herschel Walker was a pretty boneheaded move).
Yeah, this is an underrated point. Kemp is a pretty normal Bush-era Republican all things considered (though he’d have been on the conservative end back then for sure), and Georgia is generally pretty well run for being a longtime red state compared to a lot of its neighbors. Arizona Repubs post-Ducey… nah.
As they say: you can’t spell crazy without R-AZ
I mean, even Kimberly Yee (who was until recently thought to be a "reasonable" Republican and a future gubernatorial contender) has seemingly gone down the crazy rabbit hole and is challenging State Superintendent Tom Horne on a platform of...removing what few restrictions are placed on how homeschooling parents can spend taxpayer funds.
I really hope the Democratic candidate wins this one.
Anybody know why Turning Point Action rescinded their endorsement of her? They are still raising money for her.
The "Freedom Caucus" is so intent on making the AZ GOP unelectable that they are primarying both the GOP Corporation Commissioners up for statewide re-election this year. Could be an opportunity for Dems, though I'm not thrilled about our slate.
Surprised she’s up on Schweikert more than Biggs.
To think that Glassman would probably have better career prospects if he had simply stayed a Democrat...
Yeah, what happened? Is he full-on MAGA now?
It’s crazy how many pundits have this one as a tossup.
The year Katie Hobbs won, Biden had an approval rating in the low 40s. It’s crazy she won to begin with.
Lean Democrat to me seems appropriate considering Democrats won the 2018, 2020 and 2024 Senate elections as well as the 2022 Gubernatorial Election.
Well, it could "tilt." Is that less than a lean?
Agreed - a lot of these midterm Republican retirements that are being heralded as Democratic victories have just come from either old or long serving politicians, like Mark Amodei, for example.
Well well well
Um, ok
I hope they turn her down.
I think it's elected.
Either way, I hope she loses her bid. She may have a D next to her name, but she needs to be tied down to her husband and how he's made life more expensive for Nebraskans.
We don't know what she stands for. Spouses are allowed to have there own opinions! And if her views and record (if she has one) is substantially different her husband's, she shouldn't be judged by who she happens to be married to.
That is true. But it's not a good look for her.
I'm certainly not the only one pointing it out.
It's been reported she often donates to Dem candidates that her husband endorses against.
I'm pretty sure that Eric Cantor's wife Diana is a mainstream Democrat (supposedly she worked behind the scenes to help Spanberger defeat Brat in 2018 too, which is pretty delicious).
That seems kind of sexist ngl
Nebraska has no fault divorce. She's a free agent who chooses to closely associate herself with an awful person.
Here's an 8-0 I made.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ea3ff2a-74b6-49fb-b505-cdb2fd3c9ddd
Very well put
There's a risk that some swing voters who might otherwise prefer a Dem majority Colorado delegation might see potentially having Boebert as their only GOP House member as a reason to vote against redistricting.
The proposed 7-1 actually does split Denver.
Also Lauren Boebert could lose a primary to another R like Jeff Crank. He did better in his 2024 primary than she did.
Why don't they do 8-0 for the map in the referendum?
Here's my 8-0. This map is probably my greatest DRA accomplishment, since it's the only even remotely clean 8-0 that I've seen. District 2 is modified from an earlier version where it was much cleaner but less safe. https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::78211b99-3f26-4a5c-8317-78d281a1f95d
According to this, the fuckup that democrats do not have a top tier candidate in Louisiana is exacerbated by the fact that Bill Cassidy, the incumbent, is currently polling third in his primary. This is a colossal fuckup by Kirsten Gillibrand (current DSCC chair), Chuck Schumer (senate minority leader), and Ken Martin (chair of the DNC). Why is no one with power calling for any of them to resign their leadership roles?
Who would you like to run in Louisiana? Have you contacted them?
I don't live in Louisiana. Have never lived in Louisiana. It is not my job to find candidates to run in Louisiana, unlike Gillibrand, Schumer, or Martin. But how about Helena Moreno or LaToya Cantrell or Troy Carter or Cleo Fields?
LaToya Cantrell. You're funny.
Don't take that tone or speak that way to fellow community members.
LaToya Cantrell? She wouldn't hit 30% I'm not even exaggerating.
And Helena Moreno has been NOLA Mayor for five weeks. If she wanted to be a Senator or thought she could win that she wouldn't have run for her current office.
its hard to find good candidates in places like LA, MS, AL, OK, etc... even when you get someone phenomenal, like Mike Espy grade, they have a titanic climb ahead of them, with very little odds of winning. Even Doug Jones, who basically got about as poor an opponent as possible, barely scraped by with a sub 2% win. So essentially, anyone willing to run is taking an almost guaranteed L on their resume, with the financial, personal and political costs that entails. Anyone with serious aspirations is generally unwilling to do that, which helps keep those state benches relatively shallow.
Some years ago, after seeing a winnable race not seriously contested again, i decided that rather than grumbling about recruitment failures to try doing it, identified a good candidate and emailed them urging them to run. Got a polite reply, flattered anyone would think this, but claiming they wouldn't be a good candidate.
Disagree. I don’t want another Jaime Harrison situation where everyone thinks an unwinnable seat is suddenly winnable and the money that goes there does not go to other, more important races. I don’t think we could have won with anyone.
Disagree. The only races we are certain to lose are those we don’t bother to contest. I agree with North Star that Louisiana’s Senate seat should be contested, and strongly. (Recently, in another state, also failed to register a candidate for a state supreme court seat...)
As for money, it’s not like there is a constant, given pot – or a zero-sum game competing for a share of it. In these 2026 Midterm Elections, I don’t think we will see a shortage of money for Democratic candidates.
Perhaps. Maybe with an unusual candidate a la Dan Osborn.
In Texas, James Talarico strikes me as an unusual candidate. How many other seminarians does the Democratic Party have running for Senate? Or for any other office?
Split Ticket's research showed that Independents would not fare well in the deep south due to Black people's deep bonds with the Democratic Party.
Not necessarily an independent, mind you, I just meant an unusual candidate in general. ArcticStones mentioned Talarico as another example. Unusual candidates can take many forms.
I think the point of LA is not to win but to divert GOP campaign resources away from more competitive states.
Good point.
No money is being diverted from elsewhere to Louisana.
The only instance where that maaaaaaybe would've happened is if John Bel Edwards was running, which he isn't.
No no it's far more than that. It's building and maintaining a grassroots network and organization with local voters and the community. If we keep dismissing every district or state that even remotely too red, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. And you know what? Many of those voters like in rural districts will respond likewise. Why should they see a reason to vote for Democrats if Democrats don't make the effort to engage and reach out to them? Howard Dean was onto something big that we can't forget.
The problem with LA is that the most high profile Democrat in the state, John Bel Edwards, passed on running for the Senate.
Mitch Landrieu, the brother of Mary Landrieu, the last Democratic Senator representing the state, is in his mid 60's and would not be in the Senate for longer than two terms if he ran. Of course, if he were to have jumped in the race he would have faced the same Senator who unseated Senator Landrieu back in 2014, Senator Bill Cassidy.
It's premature to even think in these terms when we don't have enough of a pool of choices for Democrats to chose from.
https://apnews.com/article/john-bel-edwards-senate-b3ba45fd34a8f52ed2326cb6820db94b
I don't love the Democratic leadership, but we have strong candidates in every state that Trump won less than 60% of the vote in. I'd love to get strong candidates in deep red states too, but realistically Louisiana is a bit out of reach, it's probably only our 13th-best target. Whiffing on recruitment there isn't the end of the world.
Calling on Democratic leadership to resign because we don't have a "top tier candidate" in an unwinnable race is....extreme...
IL-2, IL-7: You can definitely learn a lot about someone by who their enemies are. I for sure support Peters and Ford now, fuck crypto.
So "Wall Street's favorite Democrat" and corporate lobbyist Melissa Bean who cut taxes for the rich and corporations is backed by two A.I super PACs and AIPAC's super PAC now. She would be dead on arrival in most districts due to her record but this is a suburban district held by Raja Krishnamoorthi so who knows.
Bean is running in IL-8, but yes, not a fan of her candidacy based on who's supporting her either.
LaShawn Ford is a centrist BTW, Kina Collins is the progressive in that race.
Collins would be better than Ford but Ford is better than Conyears-Ervin, so may have to be strategic.
Ya, Conyears-Ervin is supported by the far-left Chicago Teachers union and AIPAC’s super PAC and also has corruption cases at the same time lol.
What strange bedfellows
There are a few progs in that race, but without prog consolidation, Ford or Fisher looks better than Conyears-Ervin.
they can EASILY do an 8-0 map
Thanks as always! Interesting Pennsylvania news!
The PA state senate 16 is a super swing district, overlapping 2 competitive US House Districts: PA-01 and PA-07, and further downballot overlaps potentially competitive state house districts 143 and 187, as well as a couple of solid D state house districts (132, 134) and some longer shot Republican ones (131, 145, 183).
Most voters in PA-S-16 can cast 3 different votes to replace Republicans - in the state house, state senate, and US House (also statewide Rs) making that part of the electoral map like a scrabble triple word score (to borrow a phrase from Field Team 6).
Anti-public education billionaire Jeffrey Yass, richest person in PA contributed hundreds of thousands to Republican Jarrett Coleman, more than all the funds Mark Pinsley had in the 2022 state senate campaign.
"VoteHub’s 2026 state-level elasticity scores.
Elasticity is essentially a measure of how many swing voters a state has.
More formally: it estimates how many points a state shifts for every 1-point move in the national vote."
https://x.com/ZacharyDonnini/status/2023775157463171421?s=20
Good stuff
That's fascinating, and not what I would have guessed. CT, IA and ME among the most elastic states...
New England has historically been an elastic region. The difference is that 5/6 states here are so blue that it doesn't really matter most of the time.
Whiter, less racial polarization.
"Zachary Donnini
@ZacharyDonnini
Dallas County’s turnout is currently running at roughly three times its 2022 midterm pace.
Black voters driving much of the surge, which is something that is highly unusual this early in the early voting period."
https://x.com/ZacharyDonnini/status/2024496045162447345
I just hope they turn out in November if Crockett doesn't win the primary.
if they don't they will live with the results and no one will give a damn
But how does it compare to other counties, or Talarico's turf, or Hispanic counties? This seems like a headline designed to drive a narrative. (Also, 2022 did not have any noteworthy Dem primaries.)
Donnini is kind of a dishonest figure
"Teddy Schleifer
@teddyschleifer
NEWS:
Meta is about to start a $65 million midterms push — its biggest political effort in its 20 years in business.
Meta is standing up two super PACs that this week will drop money in races in Texas and Illinois to push A.I.
Exclusive w/
@matt_zdun"
https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/2024156310107812331?s=20
There are similar stories in California and New York. This has firmly convinced me that the Supreme court needs to be packed, and new electioneering regulations need to be brought in by the next President.
Alright, yet more strain on Texas' electrical grid. All so creeps online can make revenge porn more seamlessly.
Texas 23 is a textbook case of gerrymander. If districts are supposed to be compact, the 23rd is immense, sprawling from San Antonio to El Paso. At 48,000 square miles, it is larger than 29 states. No matter the outcome of the Tony Gonzales scandal, the Democratic nominee will be a distinct underdog in November.
It's not a gerrymander due to its size, the size is a necessity because of population density. But it does carve out areas of San Antonio in a particular way that makes it a gerrymander
Right. Most of the district is a pretty distinct and succinct COI. It’s the bullshittery in Bexar that makes it a gerrymander
DemocratIC
Huge pet peeve of mine, thank you!
Yes, indeed! I was writing hastily and never otherwise employ that McCarthyite barbarism.
Impact Research poll | 2/2-2/5 LV
US Senate Nebraska 2026
🟥Pete Ricketts 48% (incumbent)
⬜️Dan Osborn 47%
—
Senator Pete Ricketts favorables
Unfavorable 53%
Favorable 46%
(Dan Osborn internal)
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2024506759566508130
when Osborn wins let not one sole be "shocked"
It's an interesting math problem to figure out how Osborn can win. He lost by around 66,000 votes in 2024 vs Harris who lost by nearly 200,000. He needs to improve his margins in Douglas County (Omaha). He only overperformed Harris by 7 points, instead of the 15+ point overperformances in a lot of the rural counties. Doing 15 points better that Harris in Douglas would put him very close to an upset.
Lakshya Jain from "The Argument" says on a New Republic podcast that if the 2026 midterms were held right now, Dems would flip 20-25 House seats and 2-3 in the Senate.
https://newrepublic.com/article/206759/transcript-trump-erupts-panic-2026-polls-take-brutal-turn
He says Democrats have a 40% chance of flipping the Senate outright. Can't see anything getting better for the GOP in the next 8 months.
He also always tends to be more conservative in his estimates too
Yes. He tends to be more accurate than Bitecofer as well.
Bitecofer is a doomer and more centrist than him nowadays.
Her doomerist antics piss me off so much. Like Marc Elias can be a bit doomerist too (for good reason!) but he pulls back.
Bitecofer is all about the grift.
A couple weeks ago someone compared Bitecofer to Robert Cahaly, the guy who runs Trafalgar, which seems right to me. She just assumes more Democrats whereas he just assumes more Republicans.
Better to be cautious in estimates than too aggressive
That sounds about right, considered the number of newly gerrymandered seats, a 20 seat gain would be a good result.
The former president of South Korea was sentenced to life for fomenting insurrection, imagine that?
Trump should be serving the EXACT SAME sentence after that Jan 6 bullshit he pulled.
Unfortunately, eight Senate Republicans had no spine back in early 2021. As well as 74 million Americans who memory holed his treachery.
Don't forget SCOTUS.
the hague exists, and as the years go by even if he pardons himself and everyone in the admin my litmus test for the 28 primary is who is going to commit to trying this administration for its crimes against humanity
The US is not a member of the ICC. And it's not like they're the Justice League.
i was unaware of anywhere in my comment where I suggested the icc had superpowers. However, pertinently, non-members of the Rome Statute may nevertheless consent to the jurisdiction of the ICC, which is what I am asking from any Democratic candidate that I donate to in 2028. Asking, not demanding.
See Zhu, Wenqi (2006). "On Co-Operation by States Not Party to the International Criminal Court" (PDF). International Review of the Red Cross (861). International Committee of the Red Cross: 87–110.
are he and trump "friends"?
Different system of government. And it took them 40 years (save for a single year break) under a military dictatorship to get there.
Which maybe is why they care more about democracy than a plurality of Americans.