Morning Digest: The battle is on for control of the Pennsylvania legislature

Democrats want to expand their 1-seat majority in the state House and end three decades of GOP Senate control

Republican state Rep. Sheryl Delozier is not seeking reelection to a district that Donald Trump barely carried

Leading Off

PA State House, PA State Senate

Republican state Rep. Sheryl Delozier said Tuesday that she would not seek reelection to the Pennsylvania House of Representatives this year, an announcement that bolsters Democratic hopes of defending—and expanding—their one-seat majority.

Delozier’s decision to retire comes early in a year where Keystone State Democrats are also hoping to gain enough seats in the state Senate to end the GOP’s 32 years in power. If Democrats pull this difficult task off while reelecting Gov. Josh Shapiro and defending the state House, they’d have more influence in state government than they’ve enjoyed since the early 1990s.

While Shapiro went into the 2022 election on track for an easy victory, Republicans appeared set to hold both chambers of the legislature. Shapiro’s party, though, unexpectedly ended 12 years of GOP House control by winning a 102-101 edge in the 203-member chamber (the second-largest legislature in the country).

Democrats would safeguard that slender majority during a tumultuous two-year period that featured 10 special elections, plus two different speakers. And while Democrats and Republicans each targeted several constituencies going into the 2024 elections, Democrats maintained their razor-thin 102-101 edge without a single seat changing hands anywhere in the state.

Delozier decisively won her ninth term that evening by a 55-45 spread, but Democrats have reason to think the next GOP nominee will have a much tougher time defending her 88th House District in the Harrisburg suburbs.

Calculations from The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried her constituency, which is based entirely in Cumberland County, just 50-49—a difference of 343 votes.

And while Trump’s small victory was still a victory, Politics PA’s Steve Ulrich notes that local Republicans went on to take a beating during last year’s elections. One of those setbacks took place in Delozier’s constituency, where Democrats campaigning for Hampden Township’s commission won what Ulrich says is their first “majority in memory.”

Democrats, however, still have a challenging task ahead of them across the state as they seek to defend seats that Trump carried in 2024. One of those seats is held by state Rep. Frank Burns, who waged what the Philadelphia Inquirer described as “a Trump-style campaign” to win a ninth term in a western Pennsylvania constituency MAGA’s master was set to easily carry.

Burns succeeded, but it was close: He prevailed 51-48 as Trump took his 72nd District by a gigantic 65-33 spread. Republicans are sure to try again this fall.

Democrats also need to defend a pair of seats in special elections set for Feb. 24 that became vacant after incumbents Josh Siegel and Dan Miller won new offices last year, though they’re well-positioned to do so.

Morning Digest: The Pennsylvania House could again be on the line—for the sixth time in three years

The race to succeed Siegel, who was elected Lehigh County executive, pits Democrat Ana Tiburcio against Republican Bob Smith. Tiburcio, who is a member of the Allentown School Board, became the party’s nominee over the weekend after the original pick, Julian Guridy, announced he’d dropped out upon realizing he hadn’t lived in the state long enough to fulfill residency requirements.

Kamala Harris’ 58-41 win in the 22nd District, though, gives Democrats reason to be optimistic that this surprise swap won’t be an issue for Tiburcio next month.

Democrat Jennifer Mazzocco, likewise, is favored to replace Miller, who won a judgeship in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County. Mazzocco, who is a borough councilor in the community of Dormont, is going up against Republican Joseph Leckenby in the 42nd District, which Harris carried 64-35.

Republicans will defend two of their own seats on March 17 in special elections to replace representatives who also won judgeships last year. Both the 79th and 193rd Districts, though, are in dark red turf.

In the state Senate, Keystone State Democrats are making a drive this year to win enough seats to cost the GOP the majority it’s held since the 1994 elections.

Because the GOP holds a small 27-23 edge, Democrats need to both net two seats and reelect the ticket of Shapiro and Lt. Gov. Austin Davis to benefit from Davis’ tiebreaking vote.

An even split wouldn’t give Davis’ party complete control of the Senate because the state constitution places limits on how the lieutenant governor can resolve deadlocks. Democrats, though, would still prefer this to the status quo.

The campaign to end the Senate GOP’s more than three-decade reign, however, will be challenging. Because only half of the Senate’s 50 seats are up every election year, any vulnerable Republicans who won in 2024 are secure until 2028.

The Democrats’ math unexpectedly got better last year when James Andrew Malone pulled off a shock 50-49 victory in a special election for the 36th District, an ancestrally red seat in Lancaster County that Trump had carried by 15 points just months before. Republicans are now determined to deny Malone a full four-year term this fall.

Democrats flip deep-red Pennsylvania district in special election shocker

Malone, though, thinks he has the crossover appeal to pull off another victory.

“I think a reason we won is our message was heard by constituents, that we are going to listen and serve them,” he told the local news service The Lancaster Independence this month. “If you’re a registered Republican, I hope I’ve shown I’m worth investing in, you can write my name in, James Andrew Malone.”

The Downballot Podcast

Alaska Democrats land the best Senate recruit of the cycle

Co-host David Beard is joined by Nathaniel Rakich, managing editor of Votebeat, to talk through the big election news of the week. We cover Rep. Mary Peltola’s entry into the Alaska Senate race and what it means for Democrats’ chances of taking the Senate this fall. Then we discuss Rep. Steny Hoyer’s retirement after more than 45 years in Congress and the generational turnover House Democrats are experiencing.

In our Deep Dive, Beard talks to U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids of Kansas and they discuss her consistent overperformances in a highly competitive district. Davids also discusses overcoming the Republican gerrymander that made her seat redder in 2022 and the GOP’s attempts at a new mid-decade gerrymander to make her seat even harder to win.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

Virginia’s Democratic-led House of Delegates voted along party lines Wednesday to advance a constitutional amendment that would allow lawmakers to draw a new congressional map in time for this year’s election. Virginia Public Media says the state Senate, which also has a Democratic majority, is set to take this action on Friday.

It would then be up to voters to approve or reject that amendment in an election that would likely take place this spring.

Morning Digest, sponsored by FiftyPlusOne: Virginia Democrats reportedly have a surprise plan to redistrict—before 2026

Democrats have not yet released a proposed new map, but Del. Cia Price, who chairs the Privileges and Election committee, said Monday it “will be available by Jan. 30.”

4Q Fundraising

• KY-Sen: Andy Barr (R): $1.4 million raised, $6.2 million in cash on hand; Nate Morris (R): $600,000 raised, additional $1.4 million self-funded

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D): $8.8 million raised, $10 million cash on hand

• AZ-Gov: Katie Hobbs (D-inc): $1.8 million raised

• WI-Gov: Missy Hughes (D): $475,000 raised, $400,000 cash on hand

• NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc): $1.25 million raised, $3.5 million cash on hand

• PA-08: Paige Cognetti (D): $640,000 raised

• VA-02: Elaine Luria (D): $1.1 million raised (in seven weeks), $1 million cash on hand

• WI-07: Paul Wassgren (R): $600,000 raised, additional $1 million self-funded, $1.4 million cash on hand

• NV-AG: Zach Conine (D): $1.5 million raised (in 2025)

• WI Supreme Court: Chris Taylor (progressive-backed): $2 million raised (in six months); Maria Lazar (conservative-backed): $200,000 raised (in three months)

Senate

LA-Sen

Rep. Julia Letlow looks unlikely to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy in the Republican primary, but Politico’s Jordain Carney says her sources disagree on whether the congresswoman is still even considering the idea.

One group believes Letlow has given herself until the end of January to make up her mind, while others think she’s already decided not to seek a promotion. Louisiana’s candidate filing deadline is Feb. 13, so everyone will know Letlow’s plans soon enough.

But Cassidy, who voted to convict Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 riots, will face an expensive primary no matter what Letlow does.

State Rep. Julie Emerson, state Treasurer John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez, St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden, and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta are all running against Cassidy in the May 16 GOP primary. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a June 27 primary.

Cassidy, for his part, has spent Trump’s second term repositioning himself as a loyal vote for MAGA’s agenda, and his obedience appears to have dissuaded Trump from trying to end his career. Unnamed sources tell reporters Sophia Cai and Alex Gangitano, who also write for Politico, that Trump plans to stay neutral in Louisiana’s GOP primary.

Governors

CT-Gov

Former state Rep. Harry Arora, who was the GOP’s nominee for treasurer in 2022, said Wednesday he was forming an exploratory committee for a possible campaign against Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont.

Arora, who told CT Insider he’d talk to his fellow Republicans over “the next few days and weeks” about whether to run, lost to Democrat Erick Russell 52-45 just over three years ago. That defeat, though, made Arora the only member of the GOP’s statewide ticket to avoid losing by double digits.

State Sen. Ryan Fazio and former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart are already campaigning in the Aug. 11 Republican primary for governor. Lamont faces a long-shot intraparty challenge from state Rep. Josh Elliott.

FL-Gov

Businessman James Fishback filed an amended campaign finance report after his first version showed him raising all of $950 during his first quarter in the race, but his updated numbers are still awful.

Fishback’s new document shows that the candidate, who announced in October that he’d seek the Republican nomination for governor of Florida, took in $19,000 through December. He ended 2025 with just over $6,000 to finance his longshot campaign to lead America’s third-largest state.

Fishback’s team insisted to Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski that fundraising was up this year and that he’s “on track to hit $250,000 in donations.” Gancarski, though, notes this would still represent a tiny fraction of the $45 million that Rep. Byron Donalds, who is the GOP frontrunner, reported raising through the end of last month.

House

CA-01

Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher on Tuesday became the first prominent candidate from either party to enter the special election to succeed the late GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa in California’s 1st District.

Morning Digest: Here's how Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa's seat will be filled

Gallagher, a former Assembly minority leader who entered the race with the support of the congressman’s widow, told The Press Democrat he hasn’t “made any decision” about whether he’d also seek a full term in the next Congress. The state’s new congressional map transforms the 1st from a conservative bastion that Donald Trump carried 61-36 into a constituency Kamala Harris would have won 54-42.

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has until Tuesday to schedule the special election for the remaining months of LaMalfa’s term, which must then be held between 126 and 140 days later.

FL-02

State GOP Chair Evan Power said Wednesday that he would run to succeed Republican Rep. Neal Dunn, who announced the previous day that he would not seek reelection to Florida’s conservative 2nd District.

While Power has rarely been on the ballot—his only prior campaign for public office was a failed 2012 campaign for a spot on the Leon County Soil and Water District’s board—he’s become a high-profile figure in state politics. Power took over as GOP chair in early 2024 after a scandal forced out the party’s previous leader, and his tenure coincided with Donald Trump’s double-digit victory in this longtime swing state.

Power, who says he plans to remain chair through the next year, joins businessman Keith Gross, who waged a doomed 2024 intraparty campaign against Sen. Rick Scott, in the Aug. 18 primary.

GA-14

Candidate filing closed Wednesday for the March 10 special election to replace former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, and a total of 22 candidates are campaigning for Georgia’s dark red 14th Congressional District.

The 17 Republicans, three Democrats, and two unaffiliated contenders will compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries. If no one wins a majority of the vote—a virtual certainty in a race with this many options—then the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to an April 7 runoff.

There’s no obvious frontrunner, though a few Republicans have generated some attention.

One of them is Colton Moore, a far-right politician who, under state law, was required to resign his state Senate seat when he filed to run on Tuesday. Moore, who was booted from the Senate GOP caucus in 2023 by fellow Republicans and even arrested last year when he attempted to defy an order banning him from the floor of the state House, is unlikely to be missed much in the state capitol.

The GOP side also features Lookout Mountain District Attorney Clayton Fuller; Dalton City Councilman Nicky Lama; former Paulding County Commissioner Brian Stover; and Jim Tully, who has worked as an aide to Greene and served as chair of the 14th District GOP. Greene, for her part, said in November she would remain neutral in the race to replace her.

It’s also possible that one of the other 12 Republicans could gain traction over the next two months and secure a spot in the second round.

A trio of Democrats are on the ballot as well. The most notable name belongs to Shawn Harris, a retired Army brigadier general who lost to Greene 64-36 in 2024 as Donald Trump was carrying the 14th District 68-31.

Anyone who wants to represent this seat for a full term in the next Congress will need to file by March 6, which is four days before the first round of the special election. In the regular election, the state will hold partisan primaries on May 19, but candidates still need to win a majority or else face a runoff on June 16.

IA-04

Siouxland Chamber of Commerce head Chris McGowan received an endorsement Monday from former Gov. Terry Branstad, a fellow Republican whose two non-consecutive stints from 1983 to 1999 and 2011 to 2017 make him the longest-serving governor in American history.

McGowan is competing in the June 2 primary for the safely red western Iowa constituency that Rep. Randy Feenstra is giving up to run for Branstad’s old job. The Republican field also includes state Rep. Matt Windschitl and Ryan Rhodes, the former CEO of the far-right social media site Parler.

IL-09

Businessman Bruce Leon removed his name from the March 17 Democratic primary ballot on Tuesday and announced he was supporting former FBI agent Phil Andrew. The departure of Leon, who had initially said the previous week that he would continue to run for the open and safely blue 9th District, leaves 16 Democrats on the ballot.

IN-05

Democratic state Sen. J.D. Ford announced Wednesday that he’d oppose Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz in Indiana’s 5th District, which favored Donald Trump by a wide 57-41 spread in 2024.

Ford, who became the first openly gay person elected to the Indiana legislature following his 2018 victory over a GOP incumbent, is the first notable candidate from either party to challenge Spartz this year.

Observers are watching to see if any prominent Republican steps forward against Spartz, a notoriously erratic Republican who has spent her three terms in office alienating her party’s leadership, before filing closes on Feb. 6.

KY-04

Farmer Ed Gallrein became Rep. Thomas Massie’s sole Republican primary opponent on Monday when a third candidate named Robert Wells dropped out after Donald Trump called for MAGA fans to consolidate behind Gallrein. Candidate filing closed last week, so it’s too late for any other Republicans to oppose Massie in Kentucky’s 4th District.

Whoever wins the May 19 primary between Massie, an iconoclast who is perhaps the Republican Trump most despises in Congress, and the Trump-backed Gallrein is all but assured victory in the general election for this dark red northern Kentucky constituency.

NJ-08

Sen. Andy Kim endorsed Rep. Rob Menendez on Wednesday, a decision that gives the congressman a high-profile backer at an important time. Kim is taking sides as Mussab Ali, who is a former president of the Jersey City Board of Education, reportedly considers whether to challenge the congressman for renomination in the Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 8th District.

Menendez is the son of former Sen. Bob Menendez, who is serving an 11-year prison sentence for corruption, but he’s never been implicated in his father’s crimes. Kim famously launched a primary campaign against the older Menendez in 2023 one day after the then-senator was indicted, though they never ended up facing off.

Kim did not support or oppose Rob Menendez during the congressman’s tough renomination battle the next year against Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. Kim, though, did generate attention by appearing with Bhalla during the campaign.

NJ-12

Mercer County Clerk Paula Sollami Covello said Wednesday that she would not join the busy race to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, a fellow Democrat, in New Jersey’s 12th District.

NY-12

Gun safety activist Cameron Kasky tells Politico that he’s dropping out of the Democratic primary to represent New York’s 12th District, a safely blue constituency that includes part of Manhattan.

Democratic voters, though, still have a staggering number of options in the June 23 primary for the seat that Rep. Jerry Nadler is retiring from after more than 30 years in office.

The field includes Assemblymembers Alex Bores and Micah Lasher; attorney Laura Dunn; former public radio anchor Jami Floyd; private equity firm fundraiser Alan Pardee; health expert Nina Schwalbe; writer Jack Schlossberg; LGBTQ rights activist Mathew Shurka; and George Conway, a former conservative attorney who has become a high-profile Donald Trump critic.

OH-07

Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter, a Democrat who is also a union ironworker, announced Thursday morning that he would oppose Republican Rep. Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th District.

“Our current congressman, he was born rich,” Poindexter says in his launch video. “He doesn’t know what it takes to struggle. He is going to pour millions of dollars into this race to try to silence me and you.” Poindexter adds of Miller, “He is a stain on northeast Ohio.”

Poindexter joins former Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, who waged a disastrous campaign for governor in 2014, in the Democratic primary for what will be a challenging seat to flip. Miller, a former Donald Trump aide who hails from an affluent family, is seeking a third term in a constituency that Trump would have carried 55-44.

OH-13

Kevin Siembida, an Army veteran who is mayor of the village of Leetonia, announced Monday that he would seek the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes in Ohio’s 13th District.

Siembida, whose community is home to fewer than 2,000 people, entered the race more than two months after a considerably better-known Republican abruptly abandoned his campaign after concluding he no longer had an obvious “path to victory.”

Former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin, who lost to Sykes 51-49 in 2024 as Kamala Harris was carrying the 13th by just 0.05 percentage points, launched a rematch effort last summer. Coughlin, though, dropped out in November after the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission approved a map that extended Harris’ margin of victory to 51-48.

TX-34

Wealthy businessman Scott Mandel said Wednesday that he was dropping out of the GOP primary for Texas’ 34th District and supporting Army veteran Eric Flores, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement to take on Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. Mandel made his move two days after conservative activist Fred Hinojosa also exited the primary and backed Flores.

Former Rep. Mayra Flores, who is not related to Eric Flores, is still running in the March 3 primary.

Mayors & County Leaders

Washington, D.C. Mayor

Former Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie announced Wednesday that he would run to succeed retiring incumbent Muriel Bowser, an ally who has made her preference for him known, as mayor of Washington, D.C.

McDuffie’s main opponent in the June 16 Democratic primary is Councilmember Janeese Lewis George, a self-described democratic socialist who has come into conflict with Bowser. The contest will be conducted using ranked-choice rules, and the winner is all but assured of victory in November in this loyally blue city.

Morning Digest: A major election year is unfolding in D.C. as the city is besieged by Trump

McDuffie, unlike Lewis George, is close to both the incumbent and business groups. Bowser herself said at an event last month, “If you like me, you’re going to love Kenyan. Wink, wink.”

Poll Pile

• AK-Sen: Alaska Survey Research (D): Mary Peltola (D): 48, Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 46. (Oct.: 48-46 Peltola)

• KY-Sen (R): OnMessage (R) for Kentucky First Action (pro-Daniel Cameron): Daniel Cameron: 40, Andy Barr: 25, Nate Morris: 13.

• MI-Sen: The Glengariff Group for WDIV and the Detroit News:

  • Mike Rogers (R): 48, Abdul El-Sayed (D): 42.

  • Rogers (R): 46, Mallory McMorrow (D): 42.

  • Rogers (R): 44, Haley Stevens (D): 44.