One could argue that Rob Menendez Jr. got where he is largely because of his dad's influence, which was elevated by corruption. It's also hard to trust that none of his father's baser instincts were passed on.
To be fair, all of this is just about his circumstances, not anything he has done. He's been a reliable vote, to my knowledge. And I certainly wouldn't want to be associated with the choices of most of my own family members.
Its that his political career was absolutely orchestrated by his dad. Menendez Jr was appointed by Gov Murphy as Port Authority commissioner with no political and then 6 months later the congressional seat his Dad used to represent opened up, and was immediately endorsed by the entire NJ political machine. Also that not only his Dad but also his Mom were found guilty.
He may have had limited involvement and I'm sure he is a reliable vote but if were looking for political leaders that can take on corporations, corruption, effectively sell the vision of a progressive future, absolutely not the guy.
I say it's sad because Kim took on the political machine, was involved in ending the party line, appeared with Ravi Bhalla in 2024, and then endorsed Menendez Jr before a challenger could even announce in 2026. Its just unnecessary. Especially as we go through this moment of politics changing shape.
Wrong on at least one point. It was Rob’s stepmom who was found guilty, not his mom. His dad remarried a gold-digger five years ago – and I presume that was long after Junior had moved out of the house.
I think we as Democrats need to start caring about the end result more than the “why did it happen”. That’s hard for us because we have strong morals and are educated, but it’s something we need to get used to.
Obviously Rob Menendez got into office from his father’s name/connections, that’s undeniable and yes that’s obviously not the most ideal way for a Democrat to get elected. However, he hasn’t done anything while there to make him worthy of being tossed as a congressman as far as I’m aware.
It’s like Trump on Iran. It doesn’t matter that the reason why is his obsession with proving Obama’s Iran deal wrong. It doesn’t matter that we despise everything about him. It doesn’t matter that he’s being hypocritical by propping up far right autocratic regimes elsewhere. What matters is he’s supporting the protesters.
Over American history, we’ve seldom seen progress on anything with all votes from lawmakers coming from exactly the same place for exactly the same reason. Many aren’t for the right reasons, political pressure, party pressure, bribes, but the end result IS the right reason.
Who cares how we got there? What matters is we did. Rob Menendez doesn’t deserve to be tarred with his father’s actions. He’s a reliable Democrat and the second he shows that he is his father’s son in some way, is when we should end his career, not before. Until that point though, he deserves the benefit of the doubt. Innocent until proven guilty.
Clearly you misunderstood or skipped over my point and also haven’t read any of my other comments. Primaries are good. By all means if a Democrat wants to challenge Menendez they should! But there are a lot better targets then a young, Hispanic, reliable Democratic vote than him and obviously Andy Kim sees what I do. You’re welcome to disagree of course.
This is a site dedicated particularly and specifically towards the details and minutiae of primary and downballot races, technical details of district drawing and the like, rather than larger, more broad national or international political conversations
Absolutely. I’m fine with any solid Democratic vote younger candidate who proves they aren’t related to how they got into office in safe blue seats. If someone feels they would do a better job, they should challenge them and run, but that doesn’t mean I’d support them in that matter. We’ll see how Patty Garcia performs over the next 2 years.
Not to reopen a can of worms here, but I have to say I don't really get all the rage about Patty Garcia. It's not a great look, but there are just so many other things to be outraged about...
My point exactly! It's a freakin' 2-year term. If she's a disaster, petitions for the '28 election in Illinois go out in August of '27. She's likely to be a mainstream Dem vote and won't spend her time bashing the Left like others I could name.
I totally disagree about Trump and Iran. I don't know enough about the younger Menendez's politics and voting record to have an opinion about whether he should lose a primary.
And we have Adelita Grijalva replacing her late father Raul Grijalva in the House in AZ-07. Debbie Dingell also replaced her late husband John Dingell in MI-06. Not complaining about either one of these House Democrats as well.
Quite honestly, as long as Rob Menendez doesn't go in a legally compromised path like his father did, it doesn't matter to me.
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report) — In a counterproposal designed to ease tensions with the United States, on Thursday Greenland suggested that Donald J. Trump acquire Jeffrey Epstein’s island instead.
“President Trump has no roots on our island,” Greenlandic government spokesman Hartvig Dorkelson said. “Epstein’s island, on the other hand, must stir many happy memories for him.”
Acknowledging that Epstein’s island “could benefit from rebranding,” Dorkelson said, “More than the Kennedy Center, this is a place that should have Trump’s name on it.”
Meanwhile, Trump ramped up his imperialist rhetoric, declaring that the US needed to own Lapland in order to corner the world market in laptops.
In a matchup between Talarico and Cornyn, 47% support Cornyn, 44% Talarico, and 9% are undecided. Between Paxton and Talarico, 46% support each candidate, and 9% are undecided. Between Hunt and Talarico, 47% support Hunt, 44% Talarico, and 9% are undecided. CQ
In a matchup between Cornyn and Crockett, 48% support Cornyn, 43% Crockett, and 9% are undecided. Between Paxton and Crockett, 46% support both candidates, and 9% are undecided. Between Hunt and Crockett, 48% support Hunt, 43% Crockett, and 9% are undecided.
Looking at the 2026 Governor election, incumbent Governor Greg Abbott holds an eight-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, 50% to 42%, while 8% are undecided.
Surprised by how small the gap in the general election performance is between Talarico and Crockett, although Talarico is still clearly the stronger candidate
It would be funny and awesome if Shawn Harris and one of the other Democrats each got like 17% of the vote and then the 17 Republicans split the rest of it into tiny little pieces so that the two Democrats advanced out of the jungle primary.
Unfortunately, this would only be possible if Harris wasn't running and they were all nobodies, I imagine he's going to be the only Democrat anyone pays attention to
Cornyn is the most shocking here. I thought he'd perform better in a general as a longtime incumbent and after being bashed as a RINO but the "RINO" bashing as well as the "100 percent voting record with Trump" counter-ads seem to have weakened his appeal a lot.
Talarico can perhaps gain votes both from centrist Republicans as well as far right populists against him.
For context this is weighted to a Trump +14 electorate (for those who voted in 2024) and of those who say they are very or somewhat likely to vote in 2026 it works out as a Trump +12 recall
I’ve long felt even if Cornyn does win his primary that he’ll be very beatable by the time he’s nominated. He’s in a no win scenario losing support on the left and right with a brutal, bloody and bruising primary that even if he wins, will leave him fairly broke.
In the primary campaign he’s had to move far right in order to even the playing field with Paxton for the GOP primary. This alienates moderate voters who previously voted/supported him because he didn’t 100% vote GOP party line.
Meanwhile, he’ll never ever appease the MAGA far right because he dared vote with Democrats on a few issues. They already distrust him for not being MAGA enough and they’re pissed he’s attacking Paxton, trying to prevent him from becoming a MAGA Senator. Losing him votes on the right.
Regardless of who wins, either is damaged and beatable. Paxton from the left and Cornyn from the left and right. Talarico (hopefully) just has to remind moderate/swing voters of Cornyn’s primary positions “you can’t trust him”. Then run a ton of ads on far right media websites accusing him of betraying MAGA. Paxton is easier to just say “Republicans impeached him, he’s too extreme”, but both are beatable.
Yep. I'm hoping for Paxton, but even Cornyn will have his own vulnerabilities. The best case scenario is Talarico wins the D nod in early March and spends the next 2.5 months stockpiling money and pivoting towards the center on some cultural issues while Paxton and Cornyn duke it out. Maybe outside Dem groups could do some manipulation in the primary. It's worked wonders in the past for us.
The podcast transcript needs to be tweaked. It says "Mary Peltola" as the person when Rakich is speaking and then "Nathaniel Rakich" when Sharice Davis is talking.
I appreciate the optimism of the Digest, but I've had Pennsylvania's 36th Senate district as Likely R for this fall's election ever since we unexpectedly won it in the special election last year. Malone only barely won it, even with the large Democratic turnout advantage in the special election, which won't be quite so large in the elections this fall (especially since Mastriano isn't running for Governor again). Despite landslide victories for the Democratic judicial candidates last fall, the Republican candidates still won this district by about 5 percent. I'd be very surprised if Malone won re-election.
This means that Democrats will most likely need to pick up four state Senate seats in order to win a majority. And as luck would have it, there are four Republican-held seats up for re-election this fall that actually did vote for the Democratic judicial candidates last year. Those seats are Districts 6 (53-47 Dem), 16 (53-47 Dem), 24 (56-44 Dem), and 40 (56-44 Dem). Those are the seats that Democrats should focus on to win a majority in the state Senate. And besides the 36th, every other seat that Democrats are defending should be pretty safe.
I appreciate the local insight. Are you sure on the 5 point margin in the court races though? The Dems only lost Lancaster County by around 3 points. SD-36 has generally been to the left of the county: Josh Shapiro narrowly won the district as he lost Lancaster. It was also to the left of the county in other statewide races. I’d be surprised if Shapiro lost the district or the county this year, no?
I'm sure. I just checked again. It voted for Wolford by 5 percent and Battista by 4. In most elections, SD-36 actually votes similarly to Lancaster County as a whole - in 2024 it was less than 1% different. I think 2022-Gov was a slight aberration on that front.
What might explain it is that SD-36 probably has more swing voters. The rest of the county consists of straight-ticket Dems in Lancaster City and straight-ticket Republicans in the Amish rural areas, while SD-36 has more suburban swing voters and areas (particularly in the northwestern part of the county) that lean Republican but are trending Democratic.
California Democratic Party's list of candidates who are seeking party endorsement is up now. Note that the filing deadline for legislative (Cong and statehouse) candidates was yesterday; deadline for statewide offices (Gov, etc) is next Tuesday Jan 20. https://cadem.org/endorsements/2026-list-of-candidates-who-have-filed/
Locally in CA-26, the candidates who have filed are Jacqui Irwin; Chris Espinosa; and Kyle ROHRBACH, not to be confused with neo Nazi party switcher rage bait Kyle LANGFORD. Good Kyle's gonna have to get used to that.
Thanks for this information. It is good that the CADEMs are running candidates in all 52 congressional districts and the 20 state senate that are up for election this year. Looking over the list reminds me of the great diversity of people that we have in California.
The first poll showing some signs of the inevitable front runner Byron Donalds campaign taking on water? He’s been in the 40’s for every other poll. Could be an outlier. Could be Fishback’s racist attacks are working. We’ll see if other polls start to show him in the 30’s.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicates that Trump's endorsement for John Cornyn is not coming. — Punchbowl News
“We’ve tried. And the president obviously is not, at this point at least, willing to make an endorsement there. So maybe at some point that changes. But as of right now, they’re gonna, I think, duke it out in the primary”
Paxton is a whole different kind of toxic compared to Cornyn's generic Republican antics. Paxton against Talarico or even Crockett would make a safe R seat into a lean R or even Toss Up.
Cornyn would have a much better shot in the general if Paxton loses the primary.
I suspect that he means that the GOP is spending a good chunk of their Senate war chest defending Cornyn in an unnecessary primary which will result in a split party and possibly a weaker candidate in Paxton.
Some food for thought: if Paxton does win, Crockett becomes the Dem, and Crockett blows it, wouldn’t Paxton still be vulnerable next time he’s up? Or would incumbency protect him? I can imagine he would still be scandal-plagued by that point.
Shadow Home Secretary Robert Jenrick who was seen as maneuvering to replace Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader was thrown out of the Tory party by Badenoch on the grounds that he was planning on defecting to Reform UK.
Less than 5 hours later, Jenrick was on stage with Nigel Farage announcing he's joining Reform UK. I'm guessing Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin won't be Home Secretary if Reform wins government in 2029 now....
Tbh, I wouldn't be surprised if Farage pulled a Kaczynski and put Jenrick in as party leader ahead of the election. I have doubts Farage is actually interested in being PM, he likes to fly around and faff about. He just loves being on a campaign trail.
Most importantly, it is one thing to agitate, snipe, and criticize from the sidelines, without any real meaningful control, nor a track record in power to have to defend. It is another thing altogether, to hold the reins of power, and have the responsibility to deliver results. absolutely agreed, Farage would love to stand around in Parliament or in front of cameras and babble on, not actually having to make tough decisions and defend them.
Really James Cleverly should have been Tory leader, as he had the votes to do so, but he tried to get cute and game the runoff process and in the process knocked him out of the final round of the Tory leadership contest.
In late 2021, Murphy announced she wouldn’t seek reelection to her 7th District seat, which Republican Cory Mills flipped the following year after it was made redder in redistricting.
In announcing her retirement, Murphy cited a need to spend more time with her family, whom she also referenced in her launch video for Orange County mayor.
“My husband and I are raising our kids here,” she said. “Just like you, I’ve got skin in the game.”
Early voting starts next week with Election Day Jan. 31.
From the article: The runoff results will largely depend on candidates’ ability to mobilize voters, although statistically, Rehmet has the upper hand, said [TCU political science professor Keith] Gaddie, who has published studies on the science of runoff elections.
“If you get a candidate that breaks 40% and leads by 10-percentage points (in the initial election), there’s a 19 in 20 chance they’re gonna win the runoff,” he said. “Rehmet met both of these criteria — 48% of the vote, and he led by 12 points.”
That last paragraph feels like its attempting to apply primary dynamics to a general election. I still feel the Democrat has a good shot, but most of the people who voted for 3rd place will vote for the other Republican, and it really will come down to turnout.
Noticed some conversation yesterday about the Republican over performance in the Alabama HD-63 special this week, so I decided to dig into the results a bit. It appears the district is pretty neatly divided into two parts, separated by the Black Warrior River. South of the river is the college town of Tuscaloosa, which is bluer and more elastic. North of the river is a more traditional deep south district; very racially polarized and inelastic where Democrats depend mostly on black turnout to over-perform, and Democrats therefore tend to see less over-performance (i.e. last week in Georgia HD23).
South of the river:
2024: 53.64% D - 44.37% R (D+9.27%), 4422 votes
2026: 61.03% D - 38.97% R (D+22.06%), 349 votes
Swing: 🔵 D + 12.79%
Turnout: 7.89% of 2024
North of the river:
2024: 60.27% R - 37.01% D (R+23.25%), 8655 votes
2026: 70.01% R - 29.99% D (R+40.01%), 1417 votes
Swing: 🔴 R + 14.65%
Turnout: 15.79% of 2024
Back of the envelope calculations so may not be perfect, but it seems pretty clear that Democrats continued to over-perform with younger college voters. However, winter break or bad advertising meant that turnout absolutely cratered. Meanwhile, Democrats failed to turn out black voters while white Republicans voted at high rates. Worth noting the Dem candidate was outspent 5-1.
I wouldn't read too much into any of this (ex: the Republican in the Connecticut special was arrested for assault, leading to a 30 point Dem over-performance, hence the reason why we average to remove this noise), but I thought it was interesting.
The key is, a large part of GA suburbs and exurbs, esp those on the north side of Atlanta, is no longer Southern. Yeah, a lot of conservative transplants, but not as red as White Southerners.
Alabama has always been complicated state for Democrats to get traction federally and state wide. It after all features among the strongest presence of aerospace and defense companies and contractors in the U.S., not just having a largely rural portion of the state really out of reach for the party.
Democrats did quite well in turnout here compared to 2024 even while the GOP outperformed as well.
Rural strategy though will need to improve if Democrats want to get more leverage in AL.
Yeah, parts of the state are booming because of aero-defense and auto assembly plants, around Huntsville and Auburn. But the small coastline is also booming with retiree migration, which isn’t that blue, put it mildly.
Rural and older towns like Montgomery, Selma, are draining out younger folks. Overall once the rural White voters finished the transition, it is a tough state to get even close.
I can’t do anything about the formatting as it seems to be an issue with Substack that is preventing me from otherwise getting everything in a full paragraph.
That said, I separated the last sentence from the paragraph to make things easier to read.
We don't do election denial here. Sorry.
Sad that Kim endorsed Menendez Jr :/
What’s wrong with Rob Menendez Jr? There is no indication he is corrupt like his dad.
He's a machine politician.
One could argue that Rob Menendez Jr. got where he is largely because of his dad's influence, which was elevated by corruption. It's also hard to trust that none of his father's baser instincts were passed on.
To be fair, all of this is just about his circumstances, not anything he has done. He's been a reliable vote, to my knowledge. And I certainly wouldn't want to be associated with the choices of most of my own family members.
I was about to comment on your post – but then you yourself gave it the best possible rebuttal! Thank you.
I agree with your first sentence. Your second sentence is unfair.
Yes, genetic science is unfair at times.
That makes no sense. Genetics rarely determine behavior that someone has no choice over. If you think children are always like their parents, read this: https://www.thejc.com/news/features/when-rolf-mengele-questioned-his-father-the-doctor-of-auschwitz-u23kt0dr
Its that his political career was absolutely orchestrated by his dad. Menendez Jr was appointed by Gov Murphy as Port Authority commissioner with no political and then 6 months later the congressional seat his Dad used to represent opened up, and was immediately endorsed by the entire NJ political machine. Also that not only his Dad but also his Mom were found guilty.
He may have had limited involvement and I'm sure he is a reliable vote but if were looking for political leaders that can take on corporations, corruption, effectively sell the vision of a progressive future, absolutely not the guy.
I say it's sad because Kim took on the political machine, was involved in ending the party line, appeared with Ravi Bhalla in 2024, and then endorsed Menendez Jr before a challenger could even announce in 2026. Its just unnecessary. Especially as we go through this moment of politics changing shape.
Wrong on at least one point. It was Rob’s stepmom who was found guilty, not his mom. His dad remarried a gold-digger five years ago – and I presume that was long after Junior had moved out of the house.
Tbh good to know ty
I think we as Democrats need to start caring about the end result more than the “why did it happen”. That’s hard for us because we have strong morals and are educated, but it’s something we need to get used to.
Obviously Rob Menendez got into office from his father’s name/connections, that’s undeniable and yes that’s obviously not the most ideal way for a Democrat to get elected. However, he hasn’t done anything while there to make him worthy of being tossed as a congressman as far as I’m aware.
It’s like Trump on Iran. It doesn’t matter that the reason why is his obsession with proving Obama’s Iran deal wrong. It doesn’t matter that we despise everything about him. It doesn’t matter that he’s being hypocritical by propping up far right autocratic regimes elsewhere. What matters is he’s supporting the protesters.
Over American history, we’ve seldom seen progress on anything with all votes from lawmakers coming from exactly the same place for exactly the same reason. Many aren’t for the right reasons, political pressure, party pressure, bribes, but the end result IS the right reason.
Who cares how we got there? What matters is we did. Rob Menendez doesn’t deserve to be tarred with his father’s actions. He’s a reliable Democrat and the second he shows that he is his father’s son in some way, is when we should end his career, not before. Until that point though, he deserves the benefit of the doubt. Innocent until proven guilty.
Read my other comment
This is an incredibly placid take on the democratic party, as if you haven't been around for the last 10 years.
If it aint broke, dont fix it!
Why even pay attention to these primaries
Clearly you misunderstood or skipped over my point and also haven’t read any of my other comments. Primaries are good. By all means if a Democrat wants to challenge Menendez they should! But there are a lot better targets then a young, Hispanic, reliable Democratic vote than him and obviously Andy Kim sees what I do. You’re welcome to disagree of course.
I read and understood! But thanks
This is a site dedicated particularly and specifically towards the details and minutiae of primary and downballot races, technical details of district drawing and the like, rather than larger, more broad national or international political conversations
Uhhhh
you asked, "why even pay attention to these primaries"
and the answer is, because the point of this site, is to keep track of these primaries. Best of luck!
Will you hold Patty Garcia to the same standard if she wins and votes reliably?
Absolutely. I’m fine with any solid Democratic vote younger candidate who proves they aren’t related to how they got into office in safe blue seats. If someone feels they would do a better job, they should challenge them and run, but that doesn’t mean I’d support them in that matter. We’ll see how Patty Garcia performs over the next 2 years.
Not to reopen a can of worms here, but I have to say I don't really get all the rage about Patty Garcia. It's not a great look, but there are just so many other things to be outraged about...
My point exactly! It's a freakin' 2-year term. If she's a disaster, petitions for the '28 election in Illinois go out in August of '27. She's likely to be a mainstream Dem vote and won't spend her time bashing the Left like others I could name.
I totally disagree about Trump and Iran. I don't know enough about the younger Menendez's politics and voting record to have an opinion about whether he should lose a primary.
And we have Adelita Grijalva replacing her late father Raul Grijalva in the House in AZ-07. Debbie Dingell also replaced her late husband John Dingell in MI-06. Not complaining about either one of these House Democrats as well.
Quite honestly, as long as Rob Menendez doesn't go in a legally compromised path like his father did, it doesn't matter to me.
On a lighter note, Borowitz nails it once again!
"Greenland Suggests Trump Acquire Epstein’s Island Instead"
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/greenland-suggests-trump-acquire
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report) — In a counterproposal designed to ease tensions with the United States, on Thursday Greenland suggested that Donald J. Trump acquire Jeffrey Epstein’s island instead.
“President Trump has no roots on our island,” Greenlandic government spokesman Hartvig Dorkelson said. “Epstein’s island, on the other hand, must stir many happy memories for him.”
Acknowledging that Epstein’s island “could benefit from rebranding,” Dorkelson said, “More than the Kennedy Center, this is a place that should have Trump’s name on it.”
Meanwhile, Trump ramped up his imperialist rhetoric, declaring that the US needed to own Lapland in order to corner the world market in laptops.
Dorkelson, I love that added touch.
You might enjoy this as well.
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/envoy-from-greenland-offers-to-meet
That was hilarious! I already started laughing when I saw the picture.
I read the story to my wife before showing her the picture. That makes it even more effective.
If it were a Danish name wouldn't it be Dorkelsen?
Correct
TX poll Emerson:
Talarico 47
Crockett 38
Paxton 27
Cornyn 26
Hunt 16
In a matchup between Talarico and Cornyn, 47% support Cornyn, 44% Talarico, and 9% are undecided. Between Paxton and Talarico, 46% support each candidate, and 9% are undecided. Between Hunt and Talarico, 47% support Hunt, 44% Talarico, and 9% are undecided. CQ
In a matchup between Cornyn and Crockett, 48% support Cornyn, 43% Crockett, and 9% are undecided. Between Paxton and Crockett, 46% support both candidates, and 9% are undecided. Between Hunt and Crockett, 48% support Hunt, 43% Crockett, and 9% are undecided.
Looking at the 2026 Governor election, incumbent Governor Greg Abbott holds an eight-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, 50% to 42%, while 8% are undecided.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll/
I want to believe!
Oh thank God about that democratic primary number. I, too, would love to believe.
Surprised by how small the gap in the general election performance is between Talarico and Crockett, although Talarico is still clearly the stronger candidate
It would be funny and awesome if Shawn Harris and one of the other Democrats each got like 17% of the vote and then the 17 Republicans split the rest of it into tiny little pieces so that the two Democrats advanced out of the jungle primary.
Ga 14
Reverse of what California polls are showing...
Though GA-14 is redder than California is blue (R+19 vs D+12) so it's pretty unlikely.
Unfortunately, this would only be possible if Harris wasn't running and they were all nobodies, I imagine he's going to be the only Democrat anyone pays attention to
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll/
Emerson poll | 1/10-1/12 RV
Texas Governor
🟥Greg Abbott 50.2%
🟦Gina Hinojosa 42.3%
Undecided 7.5%
US Senate Texas matchups
🟥John Cornyn 46.9%
🟦James Talarico 44.1%
Undecided 9.0%
🟦James Talarico 45.6%
🟥Ken Paxton 45.6%
Undecided 8.8%
🟥Wesley Hunt 47.1%
🟦James Talarico 43.6%
Undecided 9.3%
🟥John Cornyn 48.2%
🟦Jasmine Crockett 42.5%
Undecided 9.3%
🟦Jasmine Crockett 45.8%
🟥Ken Paxton 45.5%
Undecided 8.7%
🟥Wesley Hunt 48.0%
🟦Jasmine Crockett 42.6%
Undecided 9.3%
TEXAS SENATE PRIMARIES
🔵 James Talarico - 47%
🔵 Jasmine Crockett - 38%
⚪ Not sure - 15%
🔴 Ken Paxton - 27%
🔴 John Cornyn - 26%
🔴 Wesley Hunt - 16%
⚪ Not Sure - 29%
Emerson (A) | 1/10-12 | RV
"Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett."
"Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split between the two Democrats, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett."
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2011769350173466711
Cornyn is the most shocking here. I thought he'd perform better in a general as a longtime incumbent and after being bashed as a RINO but the "RINO" bashing as well as the "100 percent voting record with Trump" counter-ads seem to have weakened his appeal a lot.
Talarico can perhaps gain votes both from centrist Republicans as well as far right populists against him.
For context this is weighted to a Trump +14 electorate (for those who voted in 2024) and of those who say they are very or somewhat likely to vote in 2026 it works out as a Trump +12 recall
I’ve long felt even if Cornyn does win his primary that he’ll be very beatable by the time he’s nominated. He’s in a no win scenario losing support on the left and right with a brutal, bloody and bruising primary that even if he wins, will leave him fairly broke.
In the primary campaign he’s had to move far right in order to even the playing field with Paxton for the GOP primary. This alienates moderate voters who previously voted/supported him because he didn’t 100% vote GOP party line.
Meanwhile, he’ll never ever appease the MAGA far right because he dared vote with Democrats on a few issues. They already distrust him for not being MAGA enough and they’re pissed he’s attacking Paxton, trying to prevent him from becoming a MAGA Senator. Losing him votes on the right.
Regardless of who wins, either is damaged and beatable. Paxton from the left and Cornyn from the left and right. Talarico (hopefully) just has to remind moderate/swing voters of Cornyn’s primary positions “you can’t trust him”. Then run a ton of ads on far right media websites accusing him of betraying MAGA. Paxton is easier to just say “Republicans impeached him, he’s too extreme”, but both are beatable.
Good post, but if Cornyn is broke after a winning primary, he will get plenty of funding, so that's the only thing we disagree on.
Yep. I'm hoping for Paxton, but even Cornyn will have his own vulnerabilities. The best case scenario is Talarico wins the D nod in early March and spends the next 2.5 months stockpiling money and pivoting towards the center on some cultural issues while Paxton and Cornyn duke it out. Maybe outside Dem groups could do some manipulation in the primary. It's worked wonders in the past for us.
Begging for this to be accurate.
The podcast transcript needs to be tweaked. It says "Mary Peltola" as the person when Rakich is speaking and then "Nathaniel Rakich" when Sharice Davis is talking.
I appreciate the optimism of the Digest, but I've had Pennsylvania's 36th Senate district as Likely R for this fall's election ever since we unexpectedly won it in the special election last year. Malone only barely won it, even with the large Democratic turnout advantage in the special election, which won't be quite so large in the elections this fall (especially since Mastriano isn't running for Governor again). Despite landslide victories for the Democratic judicial candidates last fall, the Republican candidates still won this district by about 5 percent. I'd be very surprised if Malone won re-election.
This means that Democrats will most likely need to pick up four state Senate seats in order to win a majority. And as luck would have it, there are four Republican-held seats up for re-election this fall that actually did vote for the Democratic judicial candidates last year. Those seats are Districts 6 (53-47 Dem), 16 (53-47 Dem), 24 (56-44 Dem), and 40 (56-44 Dem). Those are the seats that Democrats should focus on to win a majority in the state Senate. And besides the 36th, every other seat that Democrats are defending should be pretty safe.
Love this local knowledge
I appreciate the local insight. Are you sure on the 5 point margin in the court races though? The Dems only lost Lancaster County by around 3 points. SD-36 has generally been to the left of the county: Josh Shapiro narrowly won the district as he lost Lancaster. It was also to the left of the county in other statewide races. I’d be surprised if Shapiro lost the district or the county this year, no?
I'm sure. I just checked again. It voted for Wolford by 5 percent and Battista by 4. In most elections, SD-36 actually votes similarly to Lancaster County as a whole - in 2024 it was less than 1% different. I think 2022-Gov was a slight aberration on that front.
What might explain it is that SD-36 probably has more swing voters. The rest of the county consists of straight-ticket Dems in Lancaster City and straight-ticket Republicans in the Amish rural areas, while SD-36 has more suburban swing voters and areas (particularly in the northwestern part of the county) that lean Republican but are trending Democratic.
California Democratic Party's list of candidates who are seeking party endorsement is up now. Note that the filing deadline for legislative (Cong and statehouse) candidates was yesterday; deadline for statewide offices (Gov, etc) is next Tuesday Jan 20. https://cadem.org/endorsements/2026-list-of-candidates-who-have-filed/
Locally in CA-26, the candidates who have filed are Jacqui Irwin; Chris Espinosa; and Kyle ROHRBACH, not to be confused with neo Nazi party switcher rage bait Kyle LANGFORD. Good Kyle's gonna have to get used to that.
Thanks for this information. It is good that the CADEMs are running candidates in all 52 congressional districts and the 20 state senate that are up for election this year. Looking over the list reminds me of the great diversity of people that we have in California.
FLORIDA GOVERNOR PRIMARIES
🔴 Byron Donalds - 37%
🔴 Jay Collins - 7%
🔴 Paul Renner - 4%
🔴 James Fishback - 3%
⚪ Not sure - 49%
——
🔵 David Jolly - 23%
🔵 Jerry Demings - 19%
⚪ Not sure - 58%
Mason Dixon (A-) | 1/8-13 | RV
https://politico.com/f/?id=0000019b
The first poll showing some signs of the inevitable front runner Byron Donalds campaign taking on water? He’s been in the 40’s for every other poll. Could be an outlier. Could be Fishback’s racist attacks are working. We’ll see if other polls start to show him in the 30’s.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicates that Trump's endorsement for John Cornyn is not coming. — Punchbowl News
“We’ve tried. And the president obviously is not, at this point at least, willing to make an endorsement there. So maybe at some point that changes. But as of right now, they’re gonna, I think, duke it out in the primary”
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2011830494397088248
NRSC is spending 100 million for Cornyn.
Hah! Burning money when they need to triage it.
Why would Republicans triage Texas?
Paxton is a whole different kind of toxic compared to Cornyn's generic Republican antics. Paxton against Talarico or even Crockett would make a safe R seat into a lean R or even Toss Up.
Cornyn would have a much better shot in the general if Paxton loses the primary.
I agree that Paxton/Talarico could be Lean R (I'd put Crockett/Paxton at Likely R), but the Republicans triaging Texas? C'mon...
I suspect that he means that the GOP is spending a good chunk of their Senate war chest defending Cornyn in an unnecessary primary which will result in a split party and possibly a weaker candidate in Paxton.
Some food for thought: if Paxton does win, Crockett becomes the Dem, and Crockett blows it, wouldn’t Paxton still be vulnerable next time he’s up? Or would incumbency protect him? I can imagine he would still be scandal-plagued by that point.
6 years is a long time and if we're lucky, it may be a 6 year itch midterm like 2014 and 2006.
I’m aware that the environment may look different. It’s the scandals that have me thinking.
Maybe he’ll get primaried if it gets bad enough? Or is this just Texas and we’re fucked?
Second option. It's 2026 or bust in Texas.
Figures. Still pissed the GOP astroturfed Crockett into the race.
I'm not that concerned about her winning the primary.
He's in his mid 60s already. He can probably only serve 3 terms as it is.
$100 million for an incumbent GOP Senator to avoid a primary. How very interesting.
Doesn't the NRSC want to use this much to help the GOP defeat Democrats in the general election?
Fast moving news out of the UK:
Shadow Home Secretary Robert Jenrick who was seen as maneuvering to replace Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader was thrown out of the Tory party by Badenoch on the grounds that he was planning on defecting to Reform UK.
Less than 5 hours later, Jenrick was on stage with Nigel Farage announcing he's joining Reform UK. I'm guessing Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin won't be Home Secretary if Reform wins government in 2029 now....
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/crmdmkg8gymt
Tbh, I wouldn't be surprised if Farage pulled a Kaczynski and put Jenrick in as party leader ahead of the election. I have doubts Farage is actually interested in being PM, he likes to fly around and faff about. He just loves being on a campaign trail.
Most importantly, it is one thing to agitate, snipe, and criticize from the sidelines, without any real meaningful control, nor a track record in power to have to defend. It is another thing altogether, to hold the reins of power, and have the responsibility to deliver results. absolutely agreed, Farage would love to stand around in Parliament or in front of cameras and babble on, not actually having to make tough decisions and defend them.
Correct me if I’m wrong but Jenrick came in second to Badenoch no?
One shudders to think of the people for whom she’s insufficiently right wing
Correct.
Really James Cleverly should have been Tory leader, as he had the votes to do so, but he tried to get cute and game the runoff process and in the process knocked him out of the final round of the Tory leadership contest.
New Emerson poll of Texas Senate Democratic Primary (1/10-12):
OVERALL:
🟣 47% Talarico
🟠 38% Crockett
🟣 Latinos — Talarico +34
🟣 White — Talarico +29
🟣 Independents — Talarico +29
🟣 Men — Talarico +22
🟣 Women — Talarico +1
🟠 Dems — Crockett +1
🟠 Black — Crockett +72
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/2011790055921143810?s=20
Didn't you post about this exact poll this morning? lol
Talarico doing that well with indies is promising
@CookPolitical
House rating changes: 18 races move in Dems' direction, including four key races from Lean R to Toss Up.
https://x.com/Redistrict/status/2011848637286842653?s=20
The Kaptur and Gonzalez districts moving to toss-ups after the gerrymandering is a really good sign...
If Democrats are able to pick up the FL-07 seat, that would be awesome. It may have noved to Likely Republican but it's also a Lean GOP district.
Could Stephanie Murphy make a run there ?
Possibly although Murphy cited the reason for her leaving the House was because she wanted to be closer to her family.
She also just recently announced she was running for Mayor of Orange County, where the current Mayor Jerry Demings is running for Governor.
I respect politicians who value their family first.
https://rollcall.com/2025/07/09/stephanie-murphy-florida-orange-county-mayor/
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In late 2021, Murphy announced she wouldn’t seek reelection to her 7th District seat, which Republican Cory Mills flipped the following year after it was made redder in redistricting.
In announcing her retirement, Murphy cited a need to spend more time with her family, whom she also referenced in her launch video for Orange County mayor.
“My husband and I are raising our kids here,” she said. “Just like you, I’ve got skin in the game.”
A profile of the upcoming election for State Senate District 9 in Texas.
https://fortworthreport.org/2026/01/14/a-bellwether-election-tarrants-texas-senate-runoff-draws-national-attention/
Early voting starts next week with Election Day Jan. 31.
From the article: The runoff results will largely depend on candidates’ ability to mobilize voters, although statistically, Rehmet has the upper hand, said [TCU political science professor Keith] Gaddie, who has published studies on the science of runoff elections.
“If you get a candidate that breaks 40% and leads by 10-percentage points (in the initial election), there’s a 19 in 20 chance they’re gonna win the runoff,” he said. “Rehmet met both of these criteria — 48% of the vote, and he led by 12 points.”
That last paragraph feels like its attempting to apply primary dynamics to a general election. I still feel the Democrat has a good shot, but most of the people who voted for 3rd place will vote for the other Republican, and it really will come down to turnout.
Noticed some conversation yesterday about the Republican over performance in the Alabama HD-63 special this week, so I decided to dig into the results a bit. It appears the district is pretty neatly divided into two parts, separated by the Black Warrior River. South of the river is the college town of Tuscaloosa, which is bluer and more elastic. North of the river is a more traditional deep south district; very racially polarized and inelastic where Democrats depend mostly on black turnout to over-perform, and Democrats therefore tend to see less over-performance (i.e. last week in Georgia HD23).
South of the river:
2024: 53.64% D - 44.37% R (D+9.27%), 4422 votes
2026: 61.03% D - 38.97% R (D+22.06%), 349 votes
Swing: 🔵 D + 12.79%
Turnout: 7.89% of 2024
North of the river:
2024: 60.27% R - 37.01% D (R+23.25%), 8655 votes
2026: 70.01% R - 29.99% D (R+40.01%), 1417 votes
Swing: 🔴 R + 14.65%
Turnout: 15.79% of 2024
Back of the envelope calculations so may not be perfect, but it seems pretty clear that Democrats continued to over-perform with younger college voters. However, winter break or bad advertising meant that turnout absolutely cratered. Meanwhile, Democrats failed to turn out black voters while white Republicans voted at high rates. Worth noting the Dem candidate was outspent 5-1.
I wouldn't read too much into any of this (ex: the Republican in the Connecticut special was arrested for assault, leading to a 30 point Dem over-performance, hence the reason why we average to remove this noise), but I thought it was interesting.
Black Warrior River, what a name! And thanks for the excellent post!
So basically, the Democratic base south of the river, which normally casts about a third of the votes, cast only 20% of the votes this time.
No wonder we underperformed!
No comparison with GA HD23. That one is an exurban seat, where these days it’s rare to even hear someone speaking Southern.
This is also more exurban. I don't claim to be an expert on either area; I just looked at the numbers, so I'll defer to you.
The key is, a large part of GA suburbs and exurbs, esp those on the north side of Atlanta, is no longer Southern. Yeah, a lot of conservative transplants, but not as red as White Southerners.
Thanks for the detailed information!
Alabama has always been complicated state for Democrats to get traction federally and state wide. It after all features among the strongest presence of aerospace and defense companies and contractors in the U.S., not just having a largely rural portion of the state really out of reach for the party.
Democrats did quite well in turnout here compared to 2024 even while the GOP outperformed as well.
Rural strategy though will need to improve if Democrats want to get more leverage in AL.
Yeah, parts of the state are booming because of aero-defense and auto assembly plants, around Huntsville and Auburn. But the small coastline is also booming with retiree migration, which isn’t that blue, put it mildly.
Rural and older towns like Montgomery, Selma, are draining out younger folks. Overall once the rural White voters finished the transition, it is a tough state to get even close.
Oh dear, you're last sentence got cut off
I can’t do anything about the formatting as it seems to be an issue with Substack that is preventing me from otherwise getting everything in a full paragraph.
That said, I separated the last sentence from the paragraph to make things easier to read.