Respectfully, I disagree. I actually think abolishing ICE is a moderate position, and that both abolishing it and prosecuting its members is the way to go.
That doesn't make much sense to me, but I guess I put too much emotional value into my analysis and don't think of what is "practical" or "good for the party".
This conversation is literally in a thread where the top level comment is a poll showing +2 support for abolishing, including overwhelming support from democrats and a substantial advantage with independents at +12.
There is no actual evidence that it's a political loser. It's fear over the last time abolish-esque language was used for entirely different group with different approval levels with a different function in society.
Maybe that fear could be justified, but we do not have any data to say that it is! We do have data that shows various interpretations that range from roughly neutral (this poll) to clearly positive (ICE approval ratings are cratered).
As is, the evidence supports an anti-ICE position as good for our party.
From a messaging standpoint, if Democrats say "Abolish ICE" as a campaign slogan, that can be seen as more as representative of the extreme social justice messaging that middle of the road, moderate and independent voters may be turned off by.
"Defund the Police" is in the same ballpark but with one fundamental difference - It's poor and divisive messaging that has also resulted in horrible policy at the local level in cities like Oakland and Portland.
Instead of "Abolish ICE," Democrats can argue for restoring the homeland security system to less big government and more efficient government.
If this means ICE goes away (which it should), then what's the solution for the replacement? Not talking ICE lite but from a common sense standpoint, we don't need a Department of Homeland Security to carry out the functions of immigration processes.
More importantly, do we need to spend $115.6 billion (requested by Trump himself for FY 2026) and more every year for immigration enforcement and processes?
voters of our persuasion are not the ones who will decide future elections..pushing that narrative will not play well in Peoria..Dems had better be careful or we will see someone being inaugurated in 2029 who is trump 2.0
Yes, and the Border Patrol. And the fucking constitution! Officials shouldn't be given carte blanche to ignore and violate the constitution at the border or in any other place. Another example of how G.W. Bush and his Democratic collaborators, plus extremely unfortunate actions by the Obama Administration, did a lot to enable the current situation to exist.
Saves $116+ billion plus per year if this is the case!
Oh man, back in the 90's, things were much less complicated back then immigration wise, at least for me as a teenager back in the day. I still have memories of how much different it was pre-DHS.
I appreciate the local insight. Are you sure on the 5 point margin in the court races though? The Dems only lost Lancaster County by around 3 points. SD-36 has generally been to the left of the county: Josh Shapiro narrowly won the district as he lost Lancaster. It was also to the left of the county in other statewide races. I’d be surprised if Shapiro lost the district or the county this year, no?
This is a site dedicated particularly and specifically towards the details and minutiae of primary and downballot races, technical details of district drawing and the like, rather than larger, more broad national or international political conversations
Not to reopen a can of worms here, but I have to say I don't really get all the rage about Patty Garcia. It's not a great look, but there are just so many other things to be outraged about...
My point exactly! It's a freakin' 2-year term. If she's a disaster, petitions for the '28 election in Illinois go out in August of '27. She's likely to be a mainstream Dem vote and won't spend her time bashing the Left like others I could name.
I totally disagree about Trump and Iran. I don't know enough about the younger Menendez's politics and voting record to have an opinion about whether he should lose a primary.
And we have Adelita Grijalva replacing her late father Raul Grijalva in the House in AZ-07. Debbie Dingell also replaced her late husband John Dingell in MI-06. Not complaining about either one of these House Democrats as well.
Quite honestly, as long as Rob Menendez doesn't go in a legally compromised path like his father did, it doesn't matter to me.
One could argue that Rob Menendez Jr. got where he is largely because of his dad's influence, which was elevated by corruption. It's also hard to trust that none of his father's baser instincts were passed on.
To be fair, all of this is just about his circumstances, not anything he has done. He's been a reliable vote, to my knowledge. And I certainly wouldn't want to be associated with the choices of most of my own family members.
Its that his political career was absolutely orchestrated by his dad. Menendez Jr was appointed by Gov Murphy as Port Authority commissioner with no political and then 6 months later the congressional seat his Dad used to represent opened up, and was immediately endorsed by the entire NJ political machine. Also that not only his Dad but also his Mom were found guilty.
He may have had limited involvement and I'm sure he is a reliable vote but if were looking for political leaders that can take on corporations, corruption, effectively sell the vision of a progressive future, absolutely not the guy.
I say it's sad because Kim took on the political machine, was involved in ending the party line, appeared with Ravi Bhalla in 2024, and then endorsed Menendez Jr before a challenger could even announce in 2026. Its just unnecessary. Especially as we go through this moment of politics changing shape.
Wrong on at least one point. It was Rob’s stepmom who was found guilty, not his mom. His dad remarried a gold-digger five years ago – and I presume that was long after Junior had moved out of the house.
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report) — In a counterproposal designed to ease tensions with the United States, on Thursday Greenland suggested that Donald J. Trump acquire Jeffrey Epstein’s island instead.
“President Trump has no roots on our island,” Greenlandic government spokesman Hartvig Dorkelson said. “Epstein’s island, on the other hand, must stir many happy memories for him.”
Acknowledging that Epstein’s island “could benefit from rebranding,” Dorkelson said, “More than the Kennedy Center, this is a place that should have Trump’s name on it.”
Meanwhile, Trump ramped up his imperialist rhetoric, declaring that the US needed to own Lapland in order to corner the world market in laptops.
In a matchup between Talarico and Cornyn, 47% support Cornyn, 44% Talarico, and 9% are undecided. Between Paxton and Talarico, 46% support each candidate, and 9% are undecided. Between Hunt and Talarico, 47% support Hunt, 44% Talarico, and 9% are undecided. CQ
In a matchup between Cornyn and Crockett, 48% support Cornyn, 43% Crockett, and 9% are undecided. Between Paxton and Crockett, 46% support both candidates, and 9% are undecided. Between Hunt and Crockett, 48% support Hunt, 43% Crockett, and 9% are undecided.
Looking at the 2026 Governor election, incumbent Governor Greg Abbott holds an eight-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, 50% to 42%, while 8% are undecided.
Surprised by how small the gap in the general election performance is between Talarico and Crockett, although Talarico is still clearly the stronger candidate
It would be funny and awesome if Shawn Harris and one of the other Democrats each got like 17% of the vote and then the 17 Republicans split the rest of it into tiny little pieces so that the two Democrats advanced out of the jungle primary.
Unfortunately, this would only be possible if Harris wasn't running and they were all nobodies, I imagine he's going to be the only Democrat anyone pays attention to
Yep. I'm hoping for Paxton, but even Cornyn will have his own vulnerabilities. The best case scenario is Talarico wins the D nod in early March and spends the next 2.5 months stockpiling money and pivoting towards the center on some cultural issues while Paxton and Cornyn duke it out. Maybe outside Dem groups could do some manipulation in the primary. It's worked wonders in the past for us.
Cornyn is the most shocking here. I thought he'd perform better in a general as a longtime incumbent and after being bashed as a RINO but the "RINO" bashing as well as the "100 percent voting record with Trump" counter-ads seem to have weakened his appeal a lot.
Talarico can perhaps gain votes both from centrist Republicans as well as far right populists against him.
For context this is weighted to a Trump +14 electorate (for those who voted in 2024) and of those who say they are very or somewhat likely to vote in 2026 it works out as a Trump +12 recall
The podcast transcript needs to be tweaked. It says "Mary Peltola" as the person when Rakich is speaking and then "Nathaniel Rakich" when Sharice Davis is talking.
California Democratic Party's list of candidates who are seeking party endorsement is up now. Note that the filing deadline for legislative (Cong and statehouse) candidates was yesterday; deadline for statewide offices (Gov, etc) is next Tuesday Jan 20. https://cadem.org/endorsements/2026-list-of-candidates-who-have-filed/
Locally in CA-26, the candidates who have filed are Jacqui Irwin; Chris Espinosa; and Kyle ROHRBACH, not to be confused with neo Nazi party switcher rage bait Kyle LANGFORD. Good Kyle's gonna have to get used to that.
Thanks for this information. It is good that the CADEMs are running candidates in all 52 congressional districts and the 20 state senate that are up for election this year. Looking over the list reminds me of the great diversity of people that we have in California.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicates that Trump's endorsement for John Cornyn is not coming. — Punchbowl News
“We’ve tried. And the president obviously is not, at this point at least, willing to make an endorsement there. So maybe at some point that changes. But as of right now, they’re gonna, I think, duke it out in the primary”
Paxton is a whole different kind of toxic compared to Cornyn's generic Republican antics. Paxton against Talarico or even Crockett would make a safe R seat into a lean R or even Toss Up.
Cornyn would have a much better shot in the general if Paxton loses the primary.
I suspect that he means that the GOP is spending a good chunk of their Senate war chest defending Cornyn in an unnecessary primary which will result in a split party and possibly a weaker candidate in Paxton.
Some food for thought: if Paxton does win, Crockett becomes the Dem, and Crockett blows it, wouldn’t Paxton still be vulnerable next time he’s up? Or would incumbency protect him? I can imagine he would still be scandal-plagued by that point.
Shadow Home Secretary Robert Jenrick who was seen as maneuvering to replace Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader was thrown out of the Tory party by Badenoch on the grounds that he was planning on defecting to Reform UK.
Less than 5 hours later, Jenrick was on stage with Nigel Farage announcing he's joining Reform UK. I'm guessing Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin won't be Home Secretary if Reform wins government in 2029 now....
Tbh, I wouldn't be surprised if Farage pulled a Kaczynski and put Jenrick in as party leader ahead of the election. I have doubts Farage is actually interested in being PM, he likes to fly around and faff about. He just loves being on a campaign trail.
Most importantly, it is one thing to agitate, snipe, and criticize from the sidelines, without any real meaningful control, nor a track record in power to have to defend. It is another thing altogether, to hold the reins of power, and have the responsibility to deliver results. absolutely agreed, Farage would love to stand around in Parliament or in front of cameras and babble on, not actually having to make tough decisions and defend them.
Really James Cleverly should have been Tory leader, as he had the votes to do so, but he tried to get cute and game the runoff process and in the process knocked him out of the final round of the Tory leadership contest.
In late 2021, Murphy announced she wouldn’t seek reelection to her 7th District seat, which Republican Cory Mills flipped the following year after it was made redder in redistricting.
In announcing her retirement, Murphy cited a need to spend more time with her family, whom she also referenced in her launch video for Orange County mayor.
“My husband and I are raising our kids here,” she said. “Just like you, I’ve got skin in the game.”
Early voting starts next week with Election Day Jan. 31.
From the article: The runoff results will largely depend on candidates’ ability to mobilize voters, although statistically, Rehmet has the upper hand, said [TCU political science professor Keith] Gaddie, who has published studies on the science of runoff elections.
“If you get a candidate that breaks 40% and leads by 10-percentage points (in the initial election), there’s a 19 in 20 chance they’re gonna win the runoff,” he said. “Rehmet met both of these criteria — 48% of the vote, and he led by 12 points.”
That last paragraph feels like its attempting to apply primary dynamics to a general election. I still feel the Democrat has a good shot, but most of the people who voted for 3rd place will vote for the other Republican, and it really will come down to turnout.
Dems should separate themselves from abolish ice....yesterday
What do you mean by that? That they should support abolishing ICE or separate themselves from that idea?
separate from that idea
Respectfully, I disagree. I actually think abolishing ICE is a moderate position, and that both abolishing it and prosecuting its members is the way to go.
Obviously I agree ICE needs to go. As a political position, it is a loser, though....
That doesn't make much sense to me, but I guess I put too much emotional value into my analysis and don't think of what is "practical" or "good for the party".
This conversation is literally in a thread where the top level comment is a poll showing +2 support for abolishing, including overwhelming support from democrats and a substantial advantage with independents at +12.
There is no actual evidence that it's a political loser. It's fear over the last time abolish-esque language was used for entirely different group with different approval levels with a different function in society.
Maybe that fear could be justified, but we do not have any data to say that it is! We do have data that shows various interpretations that range from roughly neutral (this poll) to clearly positive (ICE approval ratings are cratered).
As is, the evidence supports an anti-ICE position as good for our party.
From a messaging standpoint, if Democrats say "Abolish ICE" as a campaign slogan, that can be seen as more as representative of the extreme social justice messaging that middle of the road, moderate and independent voters may be turned off by.
"Defund the Police" is in the same ballpark but with one fundamental difference - It's poor and divisive messaging that has also resulted in horrible policy at the local level in cities like Oakland and Portland.
Instead of "Abolish ICE," Democrats can argue for restoring the homeland security system to less big government and more efficient government.
If this means ICE goes away (which it should), then what's the solution for the replacement? Not talking ICE lite but from a common sense standpoint, we don't need a Department of Homeland Security to carry out the functions of immigration processes.
More importantly, do we need to spend $115.6 billion (requested by Trump himself for FY 2026) and more every year for immigration enforcement and processes?
voters of our persuasion are not the ones who will decide future elections..pushing that narrative will not play well in Peoria..Dems had better be careful or we will see someone being inaugurated in 2029 who is trump 2.0
Restoring INS is better.
Yes, and the Border Patrol. And the fucking constitution! Officials shouldn't be given carte blanche to ignore and violate the constitution at the border or in any other place. Another example of how G.W. Bush and his Democratic collaborators, plus extremely unfortunate actions by the Obama Administration, did a lot to enable the current situation to exist.
Saves $116+ billion plus per year if this is the case!
Oh man, back in the 90's, things were much less complicated back then immigration wise, at least for me as a teenager back in the day. I still have memories of how much different it was pre-DHS.
Did "defund the police" ever see these approval numbers among dems?
Most certainly not.
We don't do election denial here. Sorry.
Love this local knowledge
I appreciate the local insight. Are you sure on the 5 point margin in the court races though? The Dems only lost Lancaster County by around 3 points. SD-36 has generally been to the left of the county: Josh Shapiro narrowly won the district as he lost Lancaster. It was also to the left of the county in other statewide races. I’d be surprised if Shapiro lost the district or the county this year, no?
Sad that Kim endorsed Menendez Jr :/
Read my other comment
This is an incredibly placid take on the democratic party, as if you haven't been around for the last 10 years.
If it aint broke, dont fix it!
Why even pay attention to these primaries
I read and understood! But thanks
This is a site dedicated particularly and specifically towards the details and minutiae of primary and downballot races, technical details of district drawing and the like, rather than larger, more broad national or international political conversations
Uhhhh
you asked, "why even pay attention to these primaries"
and the answer is, because the point of this site, is to keep track of these primaries. Best of luck!
Will you hold Patty Garcia to the same standard if she wins and votes reliably?
Not to reopen a can of worms here, but I have to say I don't really get all the rage about Patty Garcia. It's not a great look, but there are just so many other things to be outraged about...
My point exactly! It's a freakin' 2-year term. If she's a disaster, petitions for the '28 election in Illinois go out in August of '27. She's likely to be a mainstream Dem vote and won't spend her time bashing the Left like others I could name.
I totally disagree about Trump and Iran. I don't know enough about the younger Menendez's politics and voting record to have an opinion about whether he should lose a primary.
And we have Adelita Grijalva replacing her late father Raul Grijalva in the House in AZ-07. Debbie Dingell also replaced her late husband John Dingell in MI-06. Not complaining about either one of these House Democrats as well.
Quite honestly, as long as Rob Menendez doesn't go in a legally compromised path like his father did, it doesn't matter to me.
What’s wrong with Rob Menendez Jr? There is no indication he is corrupt like his dad.
He's a machine politician.
One could argue that Rob Menendez Jr. got where he is largely because of his dad's influence, which was elevated by corruption. It's also hard to trust that none of his father's baser instincts were passed on.
To be fair, all of this is just about his circumstances, not anything he has done. He's been a reliable vote, to my knowledge. And I certainly wouldn't want to be associated with the choices of most of my own family members.
I was about to comment on your post – but then you yourself gave it the best possible rebuttal! Thank you.
I agree with your first sentence. Your second sentence is unfair.
Yes, genetic science is unfair at times.
That makes no sense. Genetics rarely determine behavior that someone has no choice over. If you think children are always like their parents, read this: https://www.thejc.com/news/features/when-rolf-mengele-questioned-his-father-the-doctor-of-auschwitz-u23kt0dr
Its that his political career was absolutely orchestrated by his dad. Menendez Jr was appointed by Gov Murphy as Port Authority commissioner with no political and then 6 months later the congressional seat his Dad used to represent opened up, and was immediately endorsed by the entire NJ political machine. Also that not only his Dad but also his Mom were found guilty.
He may have had limited involvement and I'm sure he is a reliable vote but if were looking for political leaders that can take on corporations, corruption, effectively sell the vision of a progressive future, absolutely not the guy.
I say it's sad because Kim took on the political machine, was involved in ending the party line, appeared with Ravi Bhalla in 2024, and then endorsed Menendez Jr before a challenger could even announce in 2026. Its just unnecessary. Especially as we go through this moment of politics changing shape.
Wrong on at least one point. It was Rob’s stepmom who was found guilty, not his mom. His dad remarried a gold-digger five years ago – and I presume that was long after Junior had moved out of the house.
Tbh good to know ty
On a lighter note, Borowitz nails it once again!
"Greenland Suggests Trump Acquire Epstein’s Island Instead"
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/greenland-suggests-trump-acquire
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report) — In a counterproposal designed to ease tensions with the United States, on Thursday Greenland suggested that Donald J. Trump acquire Jeffrey Epstein’s island instead.
“President Trump has no roots on our island,” Greenlandic government spokesman Hartvig Dorkelson said. “Epstein’s island, on the other hand, must stir many happy memories for him.”
Acknowledging that Epstein’s island “could benefit from rebranding,” Dorkelson said, “More than the Kennedy Center, this is a place that should have Trump’s name on it.”
Meanwhile, Trump ramped up his imperialist rhetoric, declaring that the US needed to own Lapland in order to corner the world market in laptops.
Dorkelson, I love that added touch.
You might enjoy this as well.
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/envoy-from-greenland-offers-to-meet
That was hilarious! I already started laughing when I saw the picture.
I read the story to my wife before showing her the picture. That makes it even more effective.
If it were a Danish name wouldn't it be Dorkelsen?
Correct
TX poll Emerson:
Talarico 47
Crockett 38
Paxton 27
Cornyn 26
Hunt 16
In a matchup between Talarico and Cornyn, 47% support Cornyn, 44% Talarico, and 9% are undecided. Between Paxton and Talarico, 46% support each candidate, and 9% are undecided. Between Hunt and Talarico, 47% support Hunt, 44% Talarico, and 9% are undecided. CQ
In a matchup between Cornyn and Crockett, 48% support Cornyn, 43% Crockett, and 9% are undecided. Between Paxton and Crockett, 46% support both candidates, and 9% are undecided. Between Hunt and Crockett, 48% support Hunt, 43% Crockett, and 9% are undecided.
Looking at the 2026 Governor election, incumbent Governor Greg Abbott holds an eight-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, 50% to 42%, while 8% are undecided.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll/
I want to believe!
Oh thank God about that democratic primary number. I, too, would love to believe.
Surprised by how small the gap in the general election performance is between Talarico and Crockett, although Talarico is still clearly the stronger candidate
It would be funny and awesome if Shawn Harris and one of the other Democrats each got like 17% of the vote and then the 17 Republicans split the rest of it into tiny little pieces so that the two Democrats advanced out of the jungle primary.
Ga 14
Reverse of what California polls are showing...
Though GA-14 is redder than California is blue (R+19 vs D+12) so it's pretty unlikely.
Unfortunately, this would only be possible if Harris wasn't running and they were all nobodies, I imagine he's going to be the only Democrat anyone pays attention to
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll/
Emerson poll | 1/10-1/12 RV
Texas Governor
🟥Greg Abbott 50.2%
🟦Gina Hinojosa 42.3%
Undecided 7.5%
US Senate Texas matchups
🟥John Cornyn 46.9%
🟦James Talarico 44.1%
Undecided 9.0%
🟦James Talarico 45.6%
🟥Ken Paxton 45.6%
Undecided 8.8%
🟥Wesley Hunt 47.1%
🟦James Talarico 43.6%
Undecided 9.3%
🟥John Cornyn 48.2%
🟦Jasmine Crockett 42.5%
Undecided 9.3%
🟦Jasmine Crockett 45.8%
🟥Ken Paxton 45.5%
Undecided 8.7%
🟥Wesley Hunt 48.0%
🟦Jasmine Crockett 42.6%
Undecided 9.3%
TEXAS SENATE PRIMARIES
🔵 James Talarico - 47%
🔵 Jasmine Crockett - 38%
⚪ Not sure - 15%
🔴 Ken Paxton - 27%
🔴 John Cornyn - 26%
🔴 Wesley Hunt - 16%
⚪ Not Sure - 29%
Emerson (A) | 1/10-12 | RV
"Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett."
"Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split between the two Democrats, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett."
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2011769350173466711
Good post, but if Cornyn is broke after a winning primary, he will get plenty of funding, so that's the only thing we disagree on.
Yep. I'm hoping for Paxton, but even Cornyn will have his own vulnerabilities. The best case scenario is Talarico wins the D nod in early March and spends the next 2.5 months stockpiling money and pivoting towards the center on some cultural issues while Paxton and Cornyn duke it out. Maybe outside Dem groups could do some manipulation in the primary. It's worked wonders in the past for us.
Cornyn is the most shocking here. I thought he'd perform better in a general as a longtime incumbent and after being bashed as a RINO but the "RINO" bashing as well as the "100 percent voting record with Trump" counter-ads seem to have weakened his appeal a lot.
Talarico can perhaps gain votes both from centrist Republicans as well as far right populists against him.
For context this is weighted to a Trump +14 electorate (for those who voted in 2024) and of those who say they are very or somewhat likely to vote in 2026 it works out as a Trump +12 recall
Begging for this to be accurate.
The podcast transcript needs to be tweaked. It says "Mary Peltola" as the person when Rakich is speaking and then "Nathaniel Rakich" when Sharice Davis is talking.
California Democratic Party's list of candidates who are seeking party endorsement is up now. Note that the filing deadline for legislative (Cong and statehouse) candidates was yesterday; deadline for statewide offices (Gov, etc) is next Tuesday Jan 20. https://cadem.org/endorsements/2026-list-of-candidates-who-have-filed/
Locally in CA-26, the candidates who have filed are Jacqui Irwin; Chris Espinosa; and Kyle ROHRBACH, not to be confused with neo Nazi party switcher rage bait Kyle LANGFORD. Good Kyle's gonna have to get used to that.
Thanks for this information. It is good that the CADEMs are running candidates in all 52 congressional districts and the 20 state senate that are up for election this year. Looking over the list reminds me of the great diversity of people that we have in California.
FLORIDA GOVERNOR PRIMARIES
🔴 Byron Donalds - 37%
🔴 Jay Collins - 7%
🔴 Paul Renner - 4%
🔴 James Fishback - 3%
⚪ Not sure - 49%
——
🔵 David Jolly - 23%
🔵 Jerry Demings - 19%
⚪ Not sure - 58%
Mason Dixon (A-) | 1/8-13 | RV
https://politico.com/f/?id=0000019b
Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicates that Trump's endorsement for John Cornyn is not coming. — Punchbowl News
“We’ve tried. And the president obviously is not, at this point at least, willing to make an endorsement there. So maybe at some point that changes. But as of right now, they’re gonna, I think, duke it out in the primary”
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2011830494397088248
NRSC is spending 100 million for Cornyn.
Hah! Burning money when they need to triage it.
Why would Republicans triage Texas?
Paxton is a whole different kind of toxic compared to Cornyn's generic Republican antics. Paxton against Talarico or even Crockett would make a safe R seat into a lean R or even Toss Up.
Cornyn would have a much better shot in the general if Paxton loses the primary.
I agree that Paxton/Talarico could be Lean R (I'd put Crockett/Paxton at Likely R), but the Republicans triaging Texas? C'mon...
I suspect that he means that the GOP is spending a good chunk of their Senate war chest defending Cornyn in an unnecessary primary which will result in a split party and possibly a weaker candidate in Paxton.
Some food for thought: if Paxton does win, Crockett becomes the Dem, and Crockett blows it, wouldn’t Paxton still be vulnerable next time he’s up? Or would incumbency protect him? I can imagine he would still be scandal-plagued by that point.
6 years is a long time and if we're lucky, it may be a 6 year itch midterm like 2014 and 2006.
I’m aware that the environment may look different. It’s the scandals that have me thinking.
Maybe he’ll get primaried if it gets bad enough? Or is this just Texas and we’re fucked?
Second option. It's 2026 or bust in Texas.
Figures. Still pissed the GOP astroturfed Crockett into the race.
I'm not that concerned about her winning the primary.
He's in his mid 60s already. He can probably only serve 3 terms as it is.
$100 million for an incumbent GOP Senator to avoid a primary. How very interesting.
Doesn't the NRSC want to use this much to help the GOP defeat Democrats in the general election?
Fast moving news out of the UK:
Shadow Home Secretary Robert Jenrick who was seen as maneuvering to replace Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader was thrown out of the Tory party by Badenoch on the grounds that he was planning on defecting to Reform UK.
Less than 5 hours later, Jenrick was on stage with Nigel Farage announcing he's joining Reform UK. I'm guessing Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin won't be Home Secretary if Reform wins government in 2029 now....
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/crmdmkg8gymt
Tbh, I wouldn't be surprised if Farage pulled a Kaczynski and put Jenrick in as party leader ahead of the election. I have doubts Farage is actually interested in being PM, he likes to fly around and faff about. He just loves being on a campaign trail.
Most importantly, it is one thing to agitate, snipe, and criticize from the sidelines, without any real meaningful control, nor a track record in power to have to defend. It is another thing altogether, to hold the reins of power, and have the responsibility to deliver results. absolutely agreed, Farage would love to stand around in Parliament or in front of cameras and babble on, not actually having to make tough decisions and defend them.
Correct me if I’m wrong but Jenrick came in second to Badenoch no?
One shudders to think of the people for whom she’s insufficiently right wing
Correct.
Really James Cleverly should have been Tory leader, as he had the votes to do so, but he tried to get cute and game the runoff process and in the process knocked him out of the final round of the Tory leadership contest.
New Emerson poll of Texas Senate Democratic Primary (1/10-12):
OVERALL:
🟣 47% Talarico
🟠 38% Crockett
🟣 Latinos — Talarico +34
🟣 White — Talarico +29
🟣 Independents — Talarico +29
🟣 Men — Talarico +22
🟣 Women — Talarico +1
🟠 Dems — Crockett +1
🟠 Black — Crockett +72
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/2011790055921143810?s=20
Didn't you post about this exact poll this morning? lol
Talarico doing that well with indies is promising
@CookPolitical
House rating changes: 18 races move in Dems' direction, including four key races from Lean R to Toss Up.
https://x.com/Redistrict/status/2011848637286842653?s=20
The Kaptur and Gonzalez districts moving to toss-ups after the gerrymandering is a really good sign...
If Democrats are able to pick up the FL-07 seat, that would be awesome. It may have noved to Likely Republican but it's also a Lean GOP district.
Could Stephanie Murphy make a run there ?
Possibly although Murphy cited the reason for her leaving the House was because she wanted to be closer to her family.
She also just recently announced she was running for Mayor of Orange County, where the current Mayor Jerry Demings is running for Governor.
I respect politicians who value their family first.
https://rollcall.com/2025/07/09/stephanie-murphy-florida-orange-county-mayor/
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In late 2021, Murphy announced she wouldn’t seek reelection to her 7th District seat, which Republican Cory Mills flipped the following year after it was made redder in redistricting.
In announcing her retirement, Murphy cited a need to spend more time with her family, whom she also referenced in her launch video for Orange County mayor.
“My husband and I are raising our kids here,” she said. “Just like you, I’ve got skin in the game.”
A profile of the upcoming election for State Senate District 9 in Texas.
https://fortworthreport.org/2026/01/14/a-bellwether-election-tarrants-texas-senate-runoff-draws-national-attention/
Early voting starts next week with Election Day Jan. 31.
From the article: The runoff results will largely depend on candidates’ ability to mobilize voters, although statistically, Rehmet has the upper hand, said [TCU political science professor Keith] Gaddie, who has published studies on the science of runoff elections.
“If you get a candidate that breaks 40% and leads by 10-percentage points (in the initial election), there’s a 19 in 20 chance they’re gonna win the runoff,” he said. “Rehmet met both of these criteria — 48% of the vote, and he led by 12 points.”
That last paragraph feels like its attempting to apply primary dynamics to a general election. I still feel the Democrat has a good shot, but most of the people who voted for 3rd place will vote for the other Republican, and it really will come down to turnout.