Democrat Tara Zrinski is running next week to become the executive of one of the swingiest counties in Pennsylvania
Leading Off
Pennsylvania
Democrats enjoy a large fundraising advantage ahead of next week’s races to lead two of the most competitive counties in the perennial swing state of Pennsylvania.
Businesswoman Christina Vogel outraised Erie County Executive Brenton Davis, a Republican who is the top elected official in this community in the northwestern corner of the state, by about $220,000 to $40,000 from June 10 to Oct. 20.
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Vogel also far outspent Davis by around $200,000 to $60,000 during this period, and she had more cash on hand heading into the final days of the campaign.
It’s a comparable situation at the other end of the state in Northampton County, where Democratic Executive Lamont McClure decided to compete in next year’s busy primary to challenge Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the 7th Congressional District rather than seek reelection.
County Controller Tara Zrinski, the Democratic nominee in the race to succeed McClure, took in close to $160,000 during the last four months, compared to $50,000 for Republican County Council member Tom Giovanni. Zrinski also expended $80,000 during this period, while Giovanni spent just $9,000 in his campaign to flip this office.
While both counties are located at opposite ends of Pennsylvania, both Erie and Northampton have served as bellwethers for more than three decades. Starting with Bill Clinton in 1992, every presidential candidate who has won Pennsylvania’s electoral votes has also carried both Erie and Northampton.
Clinton began a six-election winning streak for Democrats that ended in 2016, when Donald Trump’s performance in Erie and Northampton helped power him to an unexpected statewide victory. Both swung back to Joe Biden in 2020, only to narrowly wind up in Trump’s column again last year.
Democrats, though, hope that strong showings in this year’s local elections will forecast another shift back to the left.
Both parties will also be watching the election results in other populous counties that moved to the right in 2024.
In Lehigh County, which neighbors Northampton, state Rep. Josh Siegel is favored to succeed retiring Executive Phil Armstrong, a fellow Democrat. Siegel holds a huge fundraising edge against Republican Roger MacLean, a former Allentown City Council president. Kamala Harris carried Lehigh 51-48 four years after Biden won it by a wider 53-45 spread.
There’s also a competitive set of races in Bucks County, a longtime battleground where Trump’s tight 49.4 to 49.3 win last year made him the first Republican presidential nominee to carry this suburban Philadelphia community since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
In 2021, Republicans won all five countywide posts, which are known collectively as “row offices,” that were on the ballot: district attorney, sheriff, controller, recorder of deeds, and prothonotary. (That final position administers civil court documents.) Democrats are now on the offense and trying to unseat Republican incumbents for all five posts.
David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot. I’m gonna keep it simple: We need more paid subscribers. To thrive long-term, we need a healthy base of folks who sign up—whether on a monthly or yearly basis—to support our work. It would be a huge relief to become financially sustainable. If you’re able to pitch in, we’d be exceptionally grateful.
Election Day is finally here, so that means we’re previewing all of the top races on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast! Naturally, we check in on the marquee contests in California, New Jersey, and Virginia, but we also highlight some lesser-watched elections happening in places like Georgia, Maine, and Pennsylvania. And be sure to join us for our election night livestream with G. Elliott Morris of Strength In Numbers on Tuesday!
The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!
Redistricting Roundup
LA Redistricting
Louisiana’s GOP-dominated legislature has passed a bill pushing the state’s primaries from April 18 to May 16 and delaying any runoffs from May 30 to June 27. The candidate filing deadline would also shift from Jan. 14 to Feb. 11.
Lawmakers acted at the behest of Republican Gov. Jeff Landry, whose signature is all but assured. Republicans want more time to potentially draw a new congressional map should the Supreme Court gut what remains of the Voting Rights Act in a pending case out of Louisiana.
MD Redistricting
A top-ranking Democrat in the Maryland legislature sent a letter to colleagues on Tuesday saying that the state Senate “is choosing not to move forward with mid-cycle congressional redistricting,” advancing largely specious arguments to explain his refusal to respond to new GOP gerrymanders across the country.
In his letter, Senate President Bill Ferguson claims that “any redrawing of the current map could reopen the ability for someone to challenge the current map” and give the state Supreme Court “the opportunity to strike it down, or even worse, redraw the map itself.”
Maryland’s current map, however, has been in place for three-and-a-half years and was used in the last two elections. It was the result of a deal struck in April of 2022 between Democratic lawmakers and then-Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, after a more aggressive Democratic map was struck down by a state-level trial court as an illegal partisan gerrymander.
Given the length of time since that agreement was reached, as well as its bipartisan nature, it’s unlikely a court would disturb the state’s existing map, which last elected seven Democrats and one Republican. For Ferguson’s fears to be realized, any new litigants would have to succeed in invalidating both a hypothetical new map and the current map.
Ferguson goes on to argue that “several Republican states are resisting pressure to redistrict and are mostly able to do so because Maryland and other Democratic states are not redistricting either,” adding that “if Maryland redistricts, Republican-led states that were not planning to do so will.”
The Downballot, which has tracked mid-decade redistricting closely, is unaware of any Republicans in red states that have bucked demands for new maps—including Indiana, Kansas, and Nebraska—saying that they’ve hesitated on account of Maryland’s inaction.
Finally, Ferguson suggests that a redraw could lead to a dilution of Black voting power. A new map, however, could easily boost the number of majority-Black districts in Maryland from two to three. African American leaders have called for just such a change since 2011, but lawmakers have held off—likely because doing so could endanger Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer, who is white, in a primary against a Black opponent.
In response to Ferguson’s letter, state House Speaker Adrienne Jones threw shade at her counterpart.
“Closing the door now on the mid-cycle redistricting debate denies our constituents the opportunity to voice their opinion on an issue that goes far beyond their district lines,” Jones said in a statement. “As I’ve stated before, my door remains open to my colleagues in the Senate and to the Governor to jointly pursue efforts to protect our democracy.”
Republican Cindy Myrex easily won Tuesday’s special election for Alabama’s deep-red 12th House District by an 87-13 margin over Democrat Matt Glover. Glover’s showing was a slight improvement compared to last year’s presidential race, which Donald Trump won 89-10.
Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist has earned an endorsement from Rep. Rashida Tlaib, one of the most visible progressives in Michigan, as he seeks the Democratic nod to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
House
CO-03
Donald Trump has endorsed freshman Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd, who faces a primary challenge from Hope Scheppelman, a far-right former official with the Colorado GOP. Scheppelman has attacked Hurd for the support he’s received from the Koch network, but she doesn’t have much money to get her message out. During the third quarter, she raised just $31,000, a tiny haul compared to Hurd’s $441,000 take.
IL-09
The Department of Justice has indicted Democratic congressional candidate Kat Abughazaleh, alleging that she and five others interfered with ICE operations at a protest last month.
Abughazaleh, a political commentator running for Illinois’ open 9th District, responded in a video by calling the case “a political prosecution and a gross attempt to silence dissent—a right protected under the First Amendment.”
“This case is a major push by the Trump administration to criminalize protest and punish anyone who speaks out against them,” she added, promising “to fight these unjust charges.”
The indictment, which repeatedly misspells Abughazaleh’s surname, alleges that she and a group “hindered” an ICE agent by surrounding his vehicle, banging on it, and damaging it. However, charging documents produced by federal prosecutors in similar cases have been replete with false and misleading statements, prompting many such cases to be dismissed.
IN-04, IN-LG
An Indiana grand jury is investigating “the distribution of an intimate image(s) and ghost employment in the office of” Republican Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith, according to a report produced by the jury earlier this month.
The images likely refer to an alleged pornographic deepfake video of Brooke Haggard, the wife of state Rep. Craig Haggard, who is running for Congress. Prosecutors in Marion County reportedly launched a probe into the video in August, though the involvement of a grand jury—which has the power to issue felony indictments—was not previously known, nor were allegations of payroll fraud in Beckwith’s office.
According to 24sightNews, which first broke the story of the deepfake, two Beckwith staffersplayed the video at their workplace, and Haggard has said it was created by one of them. Beckwith, who has also been one of the most aggressive voices in pushing for a new congressional map, claimed over the summer that the video does not exist.
Haggard is challenging 80-year-old Rep. Jim Baird in next year’s GOP primary in Indiana’s conservative 4th District. Haggard had previously opposed a new gerrymander but has since grown supportive, though the top Republican in the state Senate recently said through a spokesperson that the “votes still aren’t there for redistricting.”
NC-01
Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse says he’s still running for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, even though the new gerrymander that his fellow Republicans in the legislature just passed moved his home county into the redrawn 3rd District.
Rouse told The Standard that he “has a farm in Bertie County and a beach house in Carteret County,” the latter of which was just added to the 1st District. Also seeking the GOP nod are Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson and state Sen. Bobby Hanig. Democratic Rep. Don Davis has said he plans to run for reelection despite the GOP’s new map but has yet to decide whether he’ll run in the 1st or the 3rd.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin, one of the most influential Democrats in Wisconsin politics, has endorsed businesswoman Rebecca Cooke’s bid for a rematch against Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden.
Cooke faces Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge in next year’s Democratic primary, but she’s hoovered up support from a wide swath of politicians and institutions, ranging from Bernie Sanders to the Blue Dog PAC. Cooke also dominated her rival in fundraising during the third quarter, taking in almost $1 million versus $123,000 for Berge.
WI-07
Two new Republicans have joined the race for Wisconsin’s open 7th District: attorney Paul Wassgren, who kicked off a bid on Tuesday with a promise to self-fund $1 million, and podcast producer Michael Alfonso, who is best known as the son-in-law of former Rep. Sean Duffy and launched the following day.
Alfonso, 25, married Duffy’s daughter Evita three years ago and has worked for far-right commentator Dan Bongino. His connection with his father-in-law, now Donald Trump’s transportation secretary, might seem to offer him an opening, but Duffy’s relationship with the White House has reportedly grown precarious of late.
According to CNN, Duffy has antagonized Trump officials through his efforts to permanently hang on to his second post as NASA administrator, a job he was given on an interim basis over the summer. Notably, influential Trump confidante Laura Loomer has sniped at Duffy because she prefers an Elon Musk associate, Jared Isaacman, to head NASA.
Loomer told Politico that without Isaacman in the role, “We are going to lose the space race to China, which we already are. But, you know, that’s what happens when you have a reality TV star and you make him the Department of Transportation secretary.”
Duffy appeared on the sixth season of MTV’s Real World in 1997 before winning the 7th District in 2010. He resigned in 2019, prompting a special election that was won by fellow Republican Tom Tiffany, who is now running for governor.
Already running in the GOP primary is public relations professional Jessi Ebben, who lost a bid for the Republican nomination in the neighboring 3rd District in 2020. The conservative 7th District in the northwestern corner of the state voted for Trump by a 61-38 margin last year.
Judges
PA Supreme Court
Democrats have maintained their large spending advantage over Republicans ahead of next week’s elections for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court as a major GOP donor remains on the sidelines, but conservatives are continuing to use their resources to try to confuse liberal voters.
New data from AdImpact shows that Democrats have close to $1 million booked in advertising for the final days of the campaign, while conservatives have less than $30,000 reserved.
Democrats, who held a 3-1 spending edge through mid-October, had fretted that their advantage could disappear instantly with a single check from Pennsylvania’s wealthiest man, conservative megadonor Jeff Yass.
But while Yass’ political network has been involved in urging Pennsylvanians to vote “no” on retaining Democratic Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht, the billionaire investor has just about run out of time to throw more of his money into the campaign.
Republicans, though, are hoping to trick some Democrats into voting against the incumbents. An organization led by conservative activist Scott Presler drew attention this month with yard signs declaring “No Kings, No Retention,” complete with a logo essentially identical to the one created for the nationwide anti-Trump “No Kings” protests.
A group affiliated with Yass previously sent out mailers falsely insinuating that the gerrymandered congressional map the court invalidated in 2018—which had been drawn by Republican lawmakers—was actually imposed by the court. Unlike Presler’s signs, though, that message called for readers to oust “liberal” justices.
SD-AL (R): Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and the University of South Dakota: Marty Jackley: 57, Casey Crabtree: 5.
New York, NY Mayor: Quinnipiac University: Zohran Mamdani (D): 43, Andrew Cuomo (I): 33, Curtis Sliwa (R): 14. (Early Oct.: Mamdani: 46, Cuomo: 33, Sliwa: 15.)
Editor’s note: In a previous newsletter, we incorrectly described an organization created by former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes as a super PAC. The Long Run is a traditional PAC.
We also incorrectly described North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District as “plurality-Black.” It has a white majority and a large Black population.
"Finally, Ferguson suggests that a redraw could lead to a dilution of Black voting power. A new map, however, could easily boost the number of majority-Black districts in Maryland from two to three. African American leaders have called for just such a change since 2011, but lawmakers have held off—likely because doing so could endanger Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer, who is white, in a primary against a Black opponent."
You know what would also lead to dilution of black voting power? Not winning the House next year. And don't even get me started about worrying about the election prospects of an 86-year-old House member. Really undercuts all the Dem messaging about Democracy being on the ballot.
Democrats in Michigan and Washington are growing more critical of Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens’ Senate campaign, which has been dogged by public missteps, underwhelming fundraising and a rising concern that her more liberal primary opponents are running more dynamic races.
“She’s bought herself some time with fundraising reports, but it’s not going well,” a Democratic strategist told me. “Anybody with two brain cells to rub together sees that.”"
"Finally, Ferguson suggests that a redraw could lead to a dilution of Black voting power. A new map, however, could easily boost the number of majority-Black districts in Maryland from two to three. African American leaders have called for just such a change since 2011, but lawmakers have held off—likely because doing so could endanger Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer, who is white, in a primary against a Black opponent."
You know what would also lead to dilution of black voting power? Not winning the House next year. And don't even get me started about worrying about the election prospects of an 86-year-old House member. Really undercuts all the Dem messaging about Democracy being on the ballot.
"New with
@Alex_Roarty
:
Democrats in Michigan and Washington are growing more critical of Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens’ Senate campaign, which has been dogged by public missteps, underwhelming fundraising and a rising concern that her more liberal primary opponents are running more dynamic races.
“She’s bought herself some time with fundraising reports, but it’s not going well,” a Democratic strategist told me. “Anybody with two brain cells to rub together sees that.”"
https://x.com/DaniellaMicaela/status/1983872572207841624
https://www.notus.org/2026-election/haley-stevens-michigan-democrats-concerns