I'm not so sure about this. I see MI, WI & PA being connected - similar demographics etc. I see GA and NC being connected and I see NV and AZ being connected. That is - a leftward or rightward swing in one of a group likely implies the same in other members of that group. I think comparing across groups is harder...
I agree totally with your premise; elections never happen in a vacuum; if we are winning AZ, we've won and we may win NC as well(I'm still not quite pulling the predictions trigger on AZ or NC; but the point remains the same)
Would be interesting if the GOP trendline in NV is entirely Trump-specific, as the senate poll would suggest. Hard to say whether NV of FL is the state he's most uniquely suited for.
Winning or losing has nothing to do with it; its whether or not Pence, Vance, Haley, etc. would measure up to his performance. They're two of the four states, along with Hawaii and Arkansas, where Trump improved on Romney's percentage margin in 2016 and then improved on his own percentage margin in 2020. It's barely true for Nevada in 2020, but true nonetheless. It also isn't necessarily about the magnitude of swing; they're 15th and 16th in percentage margin swing from 2012 to 2020.
I know you know this but there's a pretty long tradition of pollsters underestimating democratic strength in Nevada. It wasn't as bad in 2022, although they did show Laxalt with a 1.4 lead in the aggregate on election day, about a 2.2 miss. The worst example of it and the one that sticks in my mind is the 2012 senate race when the polling showed Shelley Berkley down 4-5 or more and she was basically left for dead and then it turned out she lost by a little over a point and I think if the party believed that she was that close there would've been much more of an effort to help her get across the finish line.
Nevada was one of many states where the polls underestimated Democrats in 2012. In the last 25 years, I think 2012 was probably my favorite election night as pretty much everything went the Dems way.
Nevada has been trending away from us since 2008. Arizona has been trending towards us. It wouldnt be surprising at all if we start to see a trend where we do better in AZ than NV.
That is the trend though Arizona moved to the left from 2012 on while Nevada relative to the popular vote moved to the right. I still think NV is no worse than a coin flip but we'll see.
CNN polls
AZ
Harris up 48% to 47%
Gallego up 51% to 43%
—Nevada
Trump up 48% to 47%
Rosen up 50% to 41%
I think Harris will match the Rosen number in the end
https://x.com/Taniel/status/1851295422326919610
I have a hard time seeing us losing the election if we win Arizona.
From a strategic standpoint, it makes sense. Mathematically, winning AZ doesn't stop Trump's easiest winning path (PA+NC+GA=270). It's not impossible.
My statement was made on the presumption that Harris wins Arizona, she wins Pennsylvania (and Michigan and Wisconsin) as well.
PA+MI+WI+NE-02 is already 270. Here's a piece I wrote about electoral math last month: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/6/2268225/-The-Path-to-Victory-The-Math
I'm not so sure about this. I see MI, WI & PA being connected - similar demographics etc. I see GA and NC being connected and I see NV and AZ being connected. That is - a leftward or rightward swing in one of a group likely implies the same in other members of that group. I think comparing across groups is harder...
I agree totally with your premise; elections never happen in a vacuum; if we are winning AZ, we've won and we may win NC as well(I'm still not quite pulling the predictions trigger on AZ or NC; but the point remains the same)
It would be a bit bizarre to win Arizona but lose Nevada.
Would be interesting if the GOP trendline in NV is entirely Trump-specific, as the senate poll would suggest. Hard to say whether NV of FL is the state he's most uniquely suited for.
Given that he lost Nevada in both 2016 and 2020, Florida would more likely fit that bill.
Winning or losing has nothing to do with it; its whether or not Pence, Vance, Haley, etc. would measure up to his performance. They're two of the four states, along with Hawaii and Arkansas, where Trump improved on Romney's percentage margin in 2016 and then improved on his own percentage margin in 2020. It's barely true for Nevada in 2020, but true nonetheless. It also isn't necessarily about the magnitude of swing; they're 15th and 16th in percentage margin swing from 2012 to 2020.
Don’t overlook Hungary and Venezuela.
I know you know this but there's a pretty long tradition of pollsters underestimating democratic strength in Nevada. It wasn't as bad in 2022, although they did show Laxalt with a 1.4 lead in the aggregate on election day, about a 2.2 miss. The worst example of it and the one that sticks in my mind is the 2012 senate race when the polling showed Shelley Berkley down 4-5 or more and she was basically left for dead and then it turned out she lost by a little over a point and I think if the party believed that she was that close there would've been much more of an effort to help her get across the finish line.
Nevada was one of many states where the polls underestimated Democrats in 2012. In the last 25 years, I think 2012 was probably my favorite election night as pretty much everything went the Dems way.
Ironically, the only big race that didn’t was… NV-Sen!
I wouldn't be shocked at all. The trends have seemed to be in reverse in those two states, but we'll know more after the election.
Nevada has been trending away from us since 2008. Arizona has been trending towards us. It wouldnt be surprising at all if we start to see a trend where we do better in AZ than NV.
lose 6 gain 11 electoral votes...better than losing 17
Was about to say, I wouldn’t be surprised by NV moving to AZ’s right, whether we win both, split, or lose both
That is the trend though Arizona moved to the left from 2012 on while Nevada relative to the popular vote moved to the right. I still think NV is no worse than a coin flip but we'll see.