I'm not so sure about this. I see MI, WI & PA being connected - similar demographics etc. I see GA and NC being connected and I see NV and AZ being connected. That is - a leftward or rightward swing in one of a group likely implies the same in other members of that group. I think comparing across groups is harder...
I agree totally with your premise; elections never happen in a vacuum; if we are winning AZ, we've won and we may win NC as well(I'm still not quite pulling the predictions trigger on AZ or NC; but the point remains the same)
I have a hard time seeing us losing the election if we win Arizona.
From a strategic standpoint, it makes sense. Mathematically, winning AZ doesn't stop Trump's easiest winning path (PA+NC+GA=270). It's not impossible.
My statement was made on the presumption that Harris wins Arizona, she wins Pennsylvania (and Michigan and Wisconsin) as well.
PA+MI+WI+NE-02 is already 270. Here's a piece I wrote about electoral math last month: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/6/2268225/-The-Path-to-Victory-The-Math
I'm not so sure about this. I see MI, WI & PA being connected - similar demographics etc. I see GA and NC being connected and I see NV and AZ being connected. That is - a leftward or rightward swing in one of a group likely implies the same in other members of that group. I think comparing across groups is harder...
I agree totally with your premise; elections never happen in a vacuum; if we are winning AZ, we've won and we may win NC as well(I'm still not quite pulling the predictions trigger on AZ or NC; but the point remains the same)