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ArcticStones's avatar

DEPRESSING NEWS

(Sharing here because The DownBallot is a data-driven community.)

In a study set to be released later today, the group behind the letter-writing effort, the nonpartisan Vote Forward, found that personal messages sent to more than 5 million occasional voters deemed at risk of staying home last fall had no effect on turnout.

https://politicalwire.com/2025/06/10/letter-writing-campaigns-have-no-impact-on-turnout/

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/06/democrats-progressives-campaign-organizing/683069/

PS. Along with many others, I spent a lot of time writing GOTV cards. While I don’t regret a moment of that, I may have to look for better ways to contribute in 2026 and special elections before that.

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ArcticStones's avatar

FEW DEM. FLIPS DESPITE GREAT OVERPERFORMANCE

Morning Digest: "Three states will hold half a dozen elections to fill vacant seats in their legislatures… None of these seats is likely to flip."

This is the striking reality in today’s hyper-polarized America. Gerrymandering and redistricting priorities, as well as population and demographic shifts, have greatly reduced the number of competitive races. The DownBallot’s excellent Special Elections Tracker, which is well worth bookmarking, reveals additional data:

– 23 special elections so far this year. (Six more tonight!)

– 16.4% Dem overperformance rel. to 2024 Presidential

– 11.7% Dem overperformance rel. to 2024 Presidential

– Modest GOP overperformance in only two races (DE SD-05 (2%) and CT SD-21 (6%))

DOUBLE-DIGIT DEMOCRATIC OVERPERFORMANCE, yes, and yet we have flipped only TWO (2!) legislative seats. In two additional races, Dems came within 3% and 5% respectively of flipping (Iowa HD-100, CT HD-113).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGk1r1VXnxBrAIVHz1C5HTB5jxCO6Zw4QNPivdhyWHw/edit?gid=415249345#gid=415249345

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