Morning Digest: As New Jersey votes, is Mikie Sherrill still the Democrats' frontrunner?

Everyone's treating her that way, but we've seen no new polls in a month

Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, candidate for governor of New Jersey (credit: Mikie Sherrill campaign)

Leading Off

NJ-Gov

As New Jersey Democrats cast ballots in the state's first major primary since the death of its notorious "county line," observers are flying blind thanks to the lack of public polling for the entire final month of the race.

Every survey of the six-person Democratic primary for governor has shown Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who is the only woman in the race, with the lead. (This post is held by Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who is termed out of office.) Sherrill's intraparty foes have also been treating her like the frontrunner, as she's the only candidate who's been the target of negative TV ads.

Because no one has released any polls since these commercials debuted—the most recent surveys were completed on May 13—there's no way to know if these attacks have damaged the congresswoman. But all of Sherrill's rivals are still treating her as the one to beat, since no one has aired ads hitting anyone else.

It's also unclear which of the other five Democrats is best-positioned to replace Sherrill at the top of the pack if she stumbles.

The candidate who's attracted the most attention is Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, whom federal authorities arrested a month ago and accused of trespassing outside an Immigration and Customs Enforcement complex in his city. The Justice Department later dropped the charges against the mayor while charging Rep. LaMonica McIver, a fellow New Jersey Democrat who was also at the facility, with assault.

Political observers speculated that Baraka's confrontation with the Trump administration could help him stand out in this packed field. It's unclear whether or not the race unfolded to his advantage, however, because the most recent public polls were conducted just days after this episode.

Baraka has aired ads highlighting the confrontation, but he never had the money to spread his message on the airwaves on the same scale as his rivals. Data from AdImpact shows that the mayor has spent $4 million on advertising through Monday, which puts him in last place. Baraka, however, is hoping to stand out both as the only Black candidate in the race and by positioning himself as the most progressive option.

Other Democrats are betting that, by spending massive sums on ads, they'll be able to pull off an upset. Rep. Josh Gottheimer and his allies have spent $23 million on advertising through Monday, far more than what anyone else has expended. Gottheimer, who is one of the most prominent centrists in the Democratic caucus, has focused on lowering property taxes.

Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who began running more than two years before the primary, is in second with $18 million in advertising. Fulop has emphasized his battles with the party establishment, including his "reputation for standing up to party bosses."

Sean Spiller, a former Montclair mayor who leads the New Jersey Education Association, has also benefited from $14 million in ads, compared to $12 million for Sherrill. Virtually none of this spending, however, has come from Spillier's campaign. Rather, his powerful union has financed a super PAC to help him, while the candidate himself has only a minimal campaign apparatus.

The final Democratic candidate is Steve Sweeney, who was state Senate president in 2021 when he unexpectedly lost reelection to a little-known Republican. Sweeney's side, according to AdImpact, has spent just $6 million on ads, which puts him ahead of only Baraka. But Sweeney is hoping that his base in South Jersey will help him in a race where the other five Democrats all hail from the more populous northern part of the state.

Making this contest so unusual is the fact that, for the first time, local party leaders can no longer grant favorable placement on primary ballots to their preferred candidates—the so-called "county line" that now-Sen. Andy Kim successfully challenged in court last year. Sherrill, though, has the support of much of the old party establishment, and this primary will be an early test of whether their endorsements still carry weight.

The situation on the Republican side is much clearer. Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, who is waging his third campaign for governor, enjoyed a wide lead in the polls even before Donald Trump endorsed him last month. After losing the 2017 primary, Ciattarelli came startlingly close to unseating Murphy in 2021, and he's hoping Trump's big gains in New Jersey last year will set him up to finally achieve his dream.

Voters will also choose nominees in races for all 80 seats in the state Assembly. Every legislative district elects two members of the Assembly (and one senator, though the Senate is not up this year). In primaries, each party's top two vote-getters advance to the general election, where the two leading candidates are in turn elected.

The definitive report on 2024

Election Night

Special Elections

Three states will hold half a dozen elections to fill vacant seats in their legislatures on Tuesday, making it the biggest single night for special elections so far this year. None of these seats is likely to flip, but collectively, they'll offer a host of additional data on the mood of the electorate.

You can keep track of all of them on our special elections Big Board. And if you're a paid subscriber, you can join our community in tracking all of the results on election night on our private Discord server. Click below to upgrade to a paid subscription if you haven't yet:

Florida

• SD-19 (59-40 Trump): Vance Ahrens (D) vs. Debbie Mayfield (R)

• HD-03 (77-22 Trump): Dondre Wise (D) vs. Nathan Boyles (R)

• HD-32 (59-39 Trump): Juan Hinojosa (D) vs. Brian Hodgers (R)

All three Florida contests—all of which are for Republican-held seats—stem in one way or another from a pair of congressional special elections that took place in April.

Two are taking place in Brevard County, on Florida's central Atlantic coast. The 19th Senate District had previously been held by Republican Randy Fine, who won the race to succeed Mike Waltz in the 6th Congressional District. The move worked out poorly for Waltz, who was sacked as Donald Trump's national security advisor just a month after Fine took his place and is still awaiting confirmation to become ambassador to the United Nations.

That race has also triggered a special election in the 32nd House District, which Republican state Rep. Debbie Mayfield left behind to run for Fine's Senate seat—a seat that used to be hers. Heading into the 2024 elections, Mayfield could not seek reelection due to term limits, so she ran for an open seat in the House—which she'd also been termed out of eight years earlier.

Gov. Ron DeSantis' secretary of state sought to block Mayfield from the special election ballot, saying that term-limits rules precluded her from running. (Mayfield claimed DeSantis wanted to "punish" her for endorsing Trump in the GOP presidential primary.) But the state Supreme Court rejected that determination, saying that her gap in service—however long—restarted the clock.

Finally, near the western tip of Florida's panhandle, there's an election for the 3rd House District. Republican Joel Rudman vacated that seat to seek the 1st Congressional District after Matt Gaetz bailed on the House, but he too fared unhappily. Under Florida's resign-to-run law, he had to give up his seat in the legislature to participate in the special election, but predictably got blitzed by Trump's pick, state CFO Jimmy Patronis, by a 66-10 margin in the GOP primary. (Patronis won the general, too.)

Massachusetts

• HD-Bristol-03 (52-46 Harris): Lisa Field (D) vs. Larry Quintal (R)

The 3rd House District in southeastern Massachusetts' Bristol County, which became vacant after Democrat Carol Doherty died in February at the age of 82, is the most closely divided at the presidential level of all of Tuesday's races.

Democrats hope it will snap back to form after supporting Joe Biden by a much wider 57-41 margin in 2020. Republicans, meanwhile, want to capitalize on gains they made in the area last year and retake a seat they held for a decade until Doherty won a previous special election five years ago.

Oklahoma

• HD-71 (58-39 Harris): Amanda Clinton (D) vs. Beverly Atteberry (R)

• HD-74 (70-28 Trump): Amy Hossain (D) vs. Kevin Norwood (R)

Both Oklahoma special elections are taking place in the Tulsa area, and both came about because two sitting lawmakers—one from each party—accepted different government jobs late last year.

The race in the 71st District in the southern reaches of Tulsa will fill the vacancy left by Democrat Amanda Swope, who joined the city government as the mayor's director of tribal policy. In the northern suburb of Owasso, meanwhile, candidates are vying to succeed Republican Mark Vancure, who was tapped as a deputy county commissioner.

There's also a special election in the 97th District in Oklahoma City, but no Republicans filed, so whoever prevails in Tuesday's Democratic primary will be named the winner.

Senate

IA-Sen

State Sen. Zach Wahls will announce Wednesday that he'll seek the Democratic nod to take on Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, according to an email to supporters first shared by Semafor. Separately, a few days earlier, former state Sen. Jim Carlin announced a longshot challenge against Ernst in the GOP primary.

Wahls earned national attention in 2011 by invoking his experience being raised by two mothers while testifying before the legislature against a proposed same-sex marriage ban. Wahls, who was 19 at the time, told a panel, "I'm actually an Eagle Scout, I own and operate my own small business. If I was your son, Mr. Chairman, I believe I'd make you very proud."

Wahls went on to win a seat in the state Senate in 2018 and became minority leader in 2021. However, he was ousted from his leadership post in 2023 after he angered fellow Democrats by firing two longtime legislative staffers.

Wahls joins veteran Nathan Sage and state Rep. J.D. Scholten in the primary to oppose Ernst, though the Democratic field may not be done expanding.

Morning Digest: Joni Ernst draws major challenger after town hall outburst

Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris told the Des Moines Register this month that she, too, is "seriously considering" running for the Senate. Norris served as Michelle Obama's chief of staff during the first few months of Obama's tenure as first lady.

Ernst now also faces opposition on her right. Carlin challenged Sen. Chuck Grassley for renomination in 2022 as a pro-Trump die-hard, but he struggled to gain traction against the Iowa institution. Carlin self-funded most of the $580,000 his campaign brought in and ended up losing 73-26.

The ex-lawmaker launched his new campaign by highlighting Ernst's famous 2014 ad in which she compared cutting wasteful spending to castrating hogs. The challenger insisted that, while Ernst once pledged to "make 'em squeal," she's "instead made deals."

MI-Sen

State Sen. Mallory McMorrow has publicized an internal poll that shows her trailing Rep. Haley Stevens 24-20 in next year's Democratic primary for Michigan's open Senate seat, a deficit her team argues she's "well-positioned" to overcome.

This survey from Global Strategy Group finds former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed in third with 15%, with state Rep. Joe Tate taking just 4%. This is the first poll we've seen of this four-way primary.

TX-Sen, TX-AG

Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro, who has long been one of the most prominent Democrats in Texas, is "actively" considering a bid for the Senate, Politico reports. The congressman, however, has not said anything publicly about running.

Politico's story, which cites an unnamed Castro ally, is the first indication that Castro is interested in opposing Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who faces a difficult primary challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton. Castro told Axios in April that he wasn't ruling out a campaign for governor, though he hasn't said anything about that idea since then.

Morning Digest: John Cornyn explains why he's losing—and it's extremely unconvincing

This is hardly the first time, however, that Castro has weighed a Senate campaign. The congressman expressed interest in challenging incumbent Ted Cruz for the state's other Senate seat in the 2018 cycle, though he ended up seeking reelection. He mulled a bid against Cornyn two years later, but while a source told the Texas Monthly he was "all but certain" to do it, Castro again opted to stay in the House.

Several other Democrats are also considering whether to run for Cornyn's seat. State Sen. Nathan Johnson is one of them, though Politico writes that he's also thinking about running to replace Paxton as attorney general.

Governors

GA-Gov

Though she chickened out of a Senate bid, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene says she's still considering a bid for Georgia's open governorship

"It's definitely something that I think is smart for me to consider," Greene told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein in a new interview, "but it's not a decision I take lightly."

Greene expressed her displeasure with the only declared Republican candidate, state Attorney General Chris Carr, for refusing to join a letter signed by 40 attorneys general opposing a GOP proposal in Congress that would block states from regulating artificial intelligence.

Carr is likely to be joined by a much Trumpier candidate, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, but Greene doesn't sound concerned about facing him, either.

"I don't think anybody should run on their relationship with President Trump," she advised, "because I certainly could run on that probably better than anyone."

ME-Gov

Former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree announced Tuesday morning that she would run to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who until recently was her boss.

Pingree, the daughter of longtime Rep. Chellie Pingree, became one of the most powerful people in the state in 2008 after her colleagues elected her to lead the state House. The younger Pingree attracted national attention in that role, with Time Magazine naming the then-33-year-old to its "40 Under 40" list in 2010.

Pingree, who could not seek reelection that year due to term limits, went on to become head of the new Office of Innovation and the Future following Mills' 2018 election. That job once again made Pingree an influential political figure, with the Bangor Daily News writing that many Mills allies informally called her the "lieutenant governor." (Maine is one of just five states that doesn't have a lieutenant governor.)

Pingree stepped down last month as she prepared to join what was already a busy Democratic primary. The field consists of Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King III, and former state Senate President Troy Jackson. Three Republicans are also running, including attorney Bobby Charles, businessman David Jones, and state Sen. James Libby.

NM-Gov

Lt. Gov. Howie Morales said over the weekend that he will not seek the Democratic nomination for governor of New Mexico.

Morales was the last prominent Democrat who was still publicly debating whether to run to succeed Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is termed out. The primary consists of three candidates: former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, and former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima.

House

GA-01

Republican state Rep. James Burchett said Saturday that he would not run for Georgia's 1st District. This conservative constituency, which includes the state's Atlantic coastline, is open because GOP Rep. Buddy Carter is running for the Senate.

PA-07

Former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell announced Monday that he was entering the Democratic primary to oppose Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania's swingy 7th District.

Crosswell used his kickoff video to highlight his time in the Marines and the U.S. Justice Department's Public Integrity Section. He and several colleagues resigned in February when acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove ordered them to drop their corruption case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams—a directive Crosswell said was part of Donald Trump's "plan to turn the Justice Department into a weapon against his enemies."

Crosswell's two opponents in the primary, however, responded to his launch by arguing that Lehigh Valley Democrats can't trust the newcomer.

Both Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure and former utility company supervisor Carol Obando-Derstine highlighted how Crosswell was a registered Republican until six months ago, when he formally became a Democrat. Crosswell responded by telling Tom Shortell of LehighValleyNews.com that he'd voted for the last three Democratic nominees for president.

Crosswell's intra-party rivals and Mackenzie all further noted that the new candidate grew up in Pottsville, which is located in the neighboring (and dark red) 9th District. Crosswell, who now lives in Allentown in Mackenzie's constituency, pushed back by telling the Morning Call that attempts to cast him as a "carpetbagger" were "insulting to all the Pennsylvanians who have left home to serve their country."

Crosswell separately told Shortell that he'd moved back to Pennsylvania following his resignation, making this the first time he's lived in the state in two decades. The candidate, who said he'd come to appreciate Allentown from his time in high school athletics, said of his new community, "Everything about this area is great except its congressman."

TN-07

Republican Rep. Mark Green, who unsuccessfully tried to retire last year, announced on Monday that he would resign from Congress following passage of the GOP's budget bill to pursue "an opportunity in the private sector."

House Republicans narrowly approved the measure last month, but the legislation has yet to pass the Senate, where it will likely face further changes. Any modified version would then need a second vote in the House. Trump has pushed Republicans to put a final bill on his desk by July 4, a very tight timeline.

Last cycle, Green, a member of the Freedom Caucus, said he would quit after calling Congress "so broken." Two weeks later, however, Green backtracked and said he’d run for a fourth term. That fall, after filing for divorce, his wife of 35 years accused him of having an affair, but Green still comfortably won reelection in Tennessee's conservative 7th District.

According to calculations from The Downballot, the heavily gerrymandered 7th, which stretches from western Nashville into the suburbs and then rural areas beyond, voted for Trump by a 60-38 margin last year.