Hawaii state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole is challenging Rep. Ed Case in the August Democratic primary. (Credit: Jarrett Keohokalole Facebook)
Leading Off
Primaries
The 2026 primary season has been rough for House incumbents—and it’s not anywhere close to finished. Many more members from both parties are in danger through September, and enough may lose to make this the worst primary cycle for incumbents of the 21st century.
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A pair of Republicans, Dan Crenshaw of Texas and Thomas Massie of Kentucky, went down in March and May, respectively. They were joined just after Memorial Day by Texas Democrats Al Green and Julie Johnson, who lost renomination in congressional districts that Republicans radically revamped last year as part of their new gerrymandered map.
That figure would almost certainly be even higher were it not for a scandal that erupted mid-race in another Texas showdown.
Republican Tony Gonzales, whose reelection campaign was overshadowed by allegations he’d had an affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide, would likely have brought this number up to seven had he continued to run. Gonzales, though, dropped his bid for another term in March immediately after getting forced into a primary runoff and admitting to the relationship. He resigned from Congress the following month.
This year’s House casualty rate has already surpassed 2024’s, when four representatives were ejected by their own party’s voters. However, it’s still well short of the 21st-century high-water mark set two years earlier, when 14 members—eight Republicans and six Democrats—lost renomination, thanks in key part to decennial redistricting.
But the 2026 primary cycle isn’t over by a long shot. At least a dozen representatives will be watching their backs this summer, including two in Colorado next week.
Democratic Rep. Diana DeGette faces a tough intraparty challenge on Tuesday from Melat Kiros, a former attorney who’s argued that voters in the Denver-based 1st District want a more progressive alternative to the 15-term incumbent. Late spending by DeGette’s allies suggests they may agree that Kiros is a real threat.
Freshman GOP Rep. Jeff Hurd, meanwhile, is trying to win a rematch against former state Rep. Ron Hanks in the 3rd District in western Colorado.
Hurd prevailed 41-28 during their first bout in 2024, and Hanks has brought in a trivial amount of money for their second go-round. But Donald Trump’s bizarre decision to endorse, then un-endorse, then re-endorse Hurd should have the congressman concerned about whether his standing has been harmed with the MAGA faithful.
July will provide temporary relief for wary House incumbents. Arizona is the only state holding congressional primaries next month, and six of the seven representatives who are seeking another term are unopposed for renomination on July 21. Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton faces activist Kai Newkirk in the 4th District, but Newkirk has struggled to raise money in his first weeks in the race.
The action, though, picks right back up on Aug. 4, and it will last until just before Labor Day.
Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar, one of the wealthiest members of Congress, faces serious opposition from state Rep. Donavan McKinney in Michigan’s 13th District, which includes much of Detroit. McKinney, who is running to the incumbent’s left, is also arguing that Thanedar, who is Indian American, is the wrong person to represent this heavily Black constituency.
That same day, Rep. Wesley Bell of Missouri will go head-to-head in a high-profile rematch with former Rep. Cori Bush, the woman he unseated two years ago in the Democratic primary for the 1st District in and around St. Louis. Bush, who spent her two terms in Congress as an ardent critic of Israel, has argued that voters now have the chance to reject AIPAC, which spent millions to beat her last time.
Republicans in Middle and West Tennessee will then decide on Aug. 6—a Thursday—whether to renominate Andy Ogles, a sophomore congressman who has been plagued by a litany of scandals during his relatively brief time representing the 5th District.
Former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher began challenging the Trump-backed incumbent last year, and he remained in the race even after Republican mapmakers moved his home outside of the district. Trump, though, is in Ogles’ corner.
Hawaii Democrats will have their say just two days later—yes, on a Saturday—in the primary between veteran Rep. Ed Case and state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole in the 1st District, which takes up most of Honolulu.
Keohokalole has charged that Case, who has long been one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus, has failed to do enough to address the state’s many challenges. Case, for his part, says his constituents would suffer if they lose his seniority, including his spot on the influential Appropriations Committee.
The focus then heads back east on Aug. 11 as Connecticut Rep. John Larson, another longtime presence in the state’s political scene, tries to fend off three Democratic primary opponents in the 1st District.
Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, who has emerged as the main challenger, says that the 77-year-old Larson needs to “pass the torch” after a pair of health scares. The incumbent has pushed back by arguing that Bronin is too close to “crypto bros” and data center builders.
Florida, which just passed a new GOP-drawn gerrymander, occupies center stage a week later on Aug. 18.
Rep. Cory Mills, who, among other things, has been accused of abusingtwo different women, still has Trump’s endorsement for his reelection campaign in Central Florida’s 7th District. But Ryan Elijah, a former TV anchor with Orlando’s Fox affiliate, says Republicans need to get rid of the scandal-tainted incumbent.
Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, meanwhile, responded to the GOP’s effort to eliminate her South Florida constituency by running in the heavily Black 20th District. Local African American leaders have condemned Wasserman Schultz, who is not Black, for campaigning here, while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has declined to endorse her effort.
Wasserman Schultz, who currently represents just 2% of the residents of this Broward County constituency, lacks many of the advantages that most incumbents have in primaries. However, she may well survive thanks in part to her detractors’ inability to consolidate behind a single alternative.
While the four main Black candidates who were already running for the 20th before redistricting—former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, rapper Luther Campbell, former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, and activist Elijah Manley—discussed the possibility of uniting behind a single standard-bearer to defeat the congresswoman, they failed to reach an agreement before candidate filing closed this month.
Nearby, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz is seeking reelection to the 25th District, another South Florida constituency that includes under half of the residents of his old 23rd District. While Moskowitz, one of the most outspoken centrists in the Democratic caucus, is preparing for a tough battle against the GOP in a seat that just became much redder, he first has to guard against his left flank.
Union organizer Oliver Larkin, who describes himself as a “proud Democratic Socialist,” began running against Moskowitz before redistricting, and he’s continued his campaign under the new map.
Finally, on Sept. 1, a pair of longtime Democratic congressmen in Massachusetts will try to turn back intraparty opponents who say it’s time for change.
Rep. Richard Neal, who was first elected in 1988 to represent Springfield and the Berkshires, faces public school teacher Jeromie Whalen in the 1st District. The 38-year-old Whalen has far less money than the 77-year-old incumbent, but the challenger is hoping to gain traction by framing the race as “a referendum on corporate campaign finance.”
Rep. Stephen Lynch, lastly, is trying to hold off attorney Patrick Roath in the 8th District, which includes parts of Boston and its southern suburbs. Roath has faulted Lynch, who was first elected in 2001, for breaking with his caucus on key votes during his long career, including by opposing the Affordable Care Act in 2010 and backing the Laken Riley Act last year.
There’s also a decades-long age gap between the 71-year-old congressman and 39-year-old challenger, but Roath says that isn’t why primary voters should make a switch.
“It’s not that Congressman Lynch is too old, or he’s bad, or he’s corrupt—it’s just that the times demand something different,” Roath told the Boston Globe in April.
The Downballot Podcast
SCOTUS’ war on voting rights
The Supreme Court’s decision gutting the Voting Rights Act two months ago was a devastating blow to American democracy, but it didn’t emerge out of the blue. Instead, it was the culmination of a decades-long effort on the right to capture the courts so that partisan jurists could enshrine minority rule.
On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, author David Daley takes us on a 60-year journey that began just weeks after the VRA first became law, when reactionaries first began plotting to sabotage it. Daley, a senior fellow at FairVote, explains how, after initial challenges failed, conservatives mobilized to ensure favorable outcomes by reshaping the judiciary—a strategy that ultimately worked to perfection.
But nothing in politics is permanent. Daley tells us what supporters of democracy must do to reform the Supreme Court, including how they must make the case for radical changes to both the public and politicians. He also details his wish-list for legislation that would protect voting rights, end gerrymandering, and restore the majority rule in America—measures that only stand a chance under a new-look SCOTUS.
House
Congressional Leadership Fund
The Congressional Leadership Fund announced a second round of fall ad reservations on Wednesday, totaling $22.1 million in Florida and Virginia. The new investments overlap closely with a batch of bookings made last week by CLF’s Democratic counterpart, the House Majority PAC.
For the first time, CLF has reserved time in the Sunshine State, putting $9.9 million in the Miami media market and $2.6 million into West Palm Beach. Both can be used to target the redrawn 25th District, where Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz is seeking reelection. The Miami reservation could also be directed to several other districts, including the 27th, where GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is vulnerable.
CLF is further devoting $6.5 million to the Tampa market, which includes Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor’s 14th District and Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s 13th District.
Finally, it’s added another $3.5 million to its existing $2.1 million booking in Norfolk, Virginia, where former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is hoping to win her old seat back from Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in the 2nd District.
Together, CLF and HMP have reserved $378 million in fall ad time, with Democrats responsible for nearly $203 million and Republicans $175 million. You can track all fall TV and digital reservations from these PACs and their peers by bookmarking our continually updated database.
Hochul up 20 here in NY👊