Morning Digest: It looks like Dan Osborn will get his one-on-one with Pete Ricketts

The winners of two other primaries are set to clear a path for the Nebraska independent

Dan Osborn, independent candidate for Senate in Nebraska. (Credit: Dan Osborn website.)

Leading Off

NE-Sen

Independent Dan Osborn appears to be on his way to getting a one-on-one general election against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts following Tuesday’s primaries in Nebraska.

Cindy Burbank, who has pledged to drop out once Osborn qualifies for the fall ballot, won the Democratic primary in an 89-11 blowout against pastor Bill Forbes, an anti-abortion activist.

Mike Marvin, likewise, leads Earl Starkey 66-34 with just under 1,200 votes tabulated in the primary for the Legal Marijuana Now Party, and Starkey has conceded. Marvin, unlike Burbank, has not promised to defer to Osborn, though that hasn’t stopped Starkey and the LMN’s leadership from accusing him of being a “Dan Osborn Plant.”

GOP gerrymandering just keeps getting worse

Election Recaps

NE-02

Political strategist Denise Powell leads state Sen. John Cavanaugh 39-37 as of early Wednesday morning in the Democratic primary for Nebraska’s open 2nd Congressional District, with the Associated Press estimating that 89% of the vote has been tabulated.

The race will likely remain unresolved for at least a few more days. The Nebraska Examiner writes that Douglas County, which is home to much of the 2nd’s Democratic electorate, will count most of its remaining ballots on Friday.

The eventual Democratic nominee will take on Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding, who had no opposition for the Republican nomination, in the general election to replace Rep. Don Bacon, a five-term Republican who announced his retirement last year.

NE-SoS

Scott Petersen, a businessman who wants to limit who can vote by mail, defeated Secretary of State Bob Evnen 55-45 in the Republican primary.

“People having confidence in election systems is a big deal,” Petersen told the Nebraska Examiner, “And I didn’t think Secretary Evnen was doing enough to give them confidence, so that’s why we ran.”

One of Evnen’s most prominent supporters, however, has a different take on why Petersen, who has amplified unfounded fears about a lack of trust in elections, wants to administer Nebraska’s elections. Rep. Don Bacon last month wrote of Petersen, “This guy is the President of the TinFoil Hat Club.”

Petersen will go up against Sarah Slattery, a school nutrition director who easily won the Democratic primary.

Douglas County, NE Attorney

Local prosecutor Makayla Danner holds a 51-49 edge over Amy Jacobsen, a former prosecutor, with about 47,000 ballots tabulated in the Democratic primary for Douglas County attorney. The winner will face incumbent Don Kleine, a former Democrat who joined the Republicans in 2020.

WV State Legislature

West Virginia Gov. Patrick Morrisey and his allies, including well-funded groups that support school vouchers, had a mixed night in Tuesday’s Republican primaries for the state legislature.

Morrisey’s side ousted several incumbents, most notably House Finance Chairman Vernon Criss. But state Sens. Tom Takubo and Vince Deeds, whom West Virginia Watch identifies as Morrisey’s “top targets” in the upper chamber, fended off primary challenges.

Redistricting Roundup

AL Redistricting

Republican Gov. Kay Ivey has scheduled a second batch of House primaries for Aug. 11 after the Supreme Court lifted injunctions that had barred Alabama from using a map that eliminates one of the state’s two majority-Black congressional districts.

Primaries are already happening on May 19, but in the 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th districts, those results will be voided in favor of the upcoming August do-overs. (The 3rd, 4th, and 5th districts did not change under the new map.) Candidates must file for these re-run races by May 22. Unlike the regularly scheduled primaries, the summertime contests will not require runoffs.

Some contenders are already making moves. Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, who’d been running for the open 1st District, announced on Tuesday that he’d switch over to the 2nd District.

Prior to the 2024 elections, a federal court imposed new boundaries that ensured Black voters would be able to elect their preferred candidates in that district. That’s precisely what ensued as Shomari Figures, a Black Democrat, won the seat.

Following the Supreme Court’s evisceration of the Voting Rights Act, though, Republicans gave the district a white majority. The revamped version would have voted for Donald Trump by a wide 57-42 margin.

Figures has yet to say what he intends to do, but Marques’ move averts a primary fight with former Rep. Jerry Carl, who said he’s continuing his comeback bid in the 1st. Recent polling had shown the two in a close race.

MO Redistricting

The Missouri Supreme Court delivered twin setbacks to opponents of the GOP’s new congressional gerrymander on Tuesday, though the map is still likely to face a repeal vote this fall.

In one case, the court upheld an appeals court ruling that determined the new districts did not violate the state constitution’s rules on compactness. In another, it held that a veto referendum seeking to repeal the map would not suspend it unless and until officials verify that organizers submitted enough signatures to qualify the measure for the ballot.

Both rulings were unanimous and issued just hours after the court heard oral arguments.

However, even though the map—which dismantled the Democratic-held 5th District in Kansas City—is now in effect, that state of affairs could change.

Supporters of the referendum submitted more than double the number of signatures needed in December, and organizers said in March that data they obtained from the state showed that a sufficient number of signatures had already passed muster.

A major problem they face, though, is that Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, who has sought to thwart the referendum at several junctures, has until Aug. 4 to complete the signature certification process—the same day as the state’s primary.

If Hoskins takes the maximum amount of time allowed by law, then it appears that the primaries would go forward using the new districts, even if he certifies the referendum. The Supreme Court explained that the map would be retroactively suspended if and when that happens, but Republicans would likely argue it’s too late to change course for 2026.

Should that scenario play out, opponents of the map would still have the opportunity to convince voters to toss it in November. That would, however, be cold comfort to Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, who represents the 5th, and further complicate Democrats’ path back to the majority.

SC Redistricting

South Carolina’s Republican-dominated state Senate on Tuesday rejected a proposal passed last week by the state House that would have allowed lawmakers to reconvene later this year to redraw the state’s congressional map.

The measure, known as a sine die resolution, required a two-thirds vote in favor, a threshold it easily reached in the lower chamber. On paper, it should have been no harder in the Senate, where Republicans hold 34 of 46 seats and needed just 31 votes for a supermajority.

But five GOP senators joined with all 12 Democrats to thwart the resolution, despite Donald Trump pushing for a “yes” vote. As a result, the legislature will wrap up its work for the year on Thursday when its regular session concludes. It won’t meet again until next year unless Republican Gov. Henry McMaster were to call a special session, but he’s indicated he won’t.

If McMaster holds firm, that would—for now—save South Carolina’s lone majority-Black district, the 6th, where Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn is seeking an 18th term. However, Republicans could revisit the matter before the 2028 elections.

Senate

MN-Sen

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan on Tuesday received the endorsement of Rep. Ilhan Omar, one of the most prominent progressives in Minnesota. Flanagan faces Rep. Angie Craig, Omar’s colleague in the state’s House delegation, in the August Democratic primary for Senate.

Governors

NM-Gov

Allies of former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland are going negative on her opponent ahead of New Mexico’s June 2 Democratic primary for governor, a race that’s grown increasingly bitter even as Haaland remains the frontrunner.

The Environmental Defense Fund’s political arm just launched a new $150,000 digital ad campaign painting Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman as out of touch and beholden to reactionaries.

“Why are MAGA donors bankrolling millionaire Sam Bregman?” a narrator asks in EDF’s ad. “Trump donors have given Breman over a quarter of a million dollars. Because they know who he’ll fight for, his fellow millionaires.” The spot then goes on to say that Bregman “owns four homes” and “seven racehorses.”

Those homes have been a sore subject for Bregman, who said in a recent interview—described by reporter Joe Monahan as “little-noticed”—that he would not back Haaland if she wins the primary.

“I will support Democrats in a large way, but I can no longer support Deb Haaland for governor after what she did by posting my family members’ homes on her website,” Bregman told KOAT, an ABC affiliate in Albuquerque. “That is such an epic failure of judgment on her part that I don’t believe she has the judgment to lead this great state in the future.”

Last month, Haaland shared information about Bregman’s homes on her campaign site but took it down quickly after Bregman complained it risked jeopardizing his family’s safety. A Haaland spokesperson told the Albuquerque Journal that it did not list any addresses.

A pair of independent polls conducted in April found Haaland with leads of 16 and 22 points, and new fundraising data shows her with a dominant advantage over Bregman. According to recently filed disclosures through early May, Haaland has raised almost $12 million for her campaign while Bregman is far behind with $3.8 million.

NY-Gov

A New York court ruled on Tuesday that state officials erred when they denied public matching funds to Republican Bruce Blakeman, potentially unlocking up to $3.5 million for his uphill bid against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.

In late March, New York’s Public Campaign Finance Board rejected Blakeman’s application because he had failed to include the name of his candidate for lieutenant governor, Madison County Sheriff Todd Hood. But a trial court judge held that the panel should have notified Blakeman of the missing information and given him the chance to fix the defect.

Blakeman, who won reelection as Nassau County executive last fall, still faces long odds against Hochul, who reported amassing a $20 million war chest in January and has opted out of the matching program. Polls have also shown the incumbent with wide leads.

House

CO-08

Former state Rep. Shannon Bird is going after state Rep. Manny Rutinel in what appears to be the first negative TV ad from any candidate ahead of the June 30 Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Gabe Evans.

The spot, which Punchbowl News says is backed by a $100,000 buy, begins by touting Bird’s record on abortion rights, gun safety, and Medicaid. The audience is then shown photos of Rutinel taking selfies and posing as the narrator declares his “pictures look better than his record.”

The ad goes on to accuse him of voting for “massive budget cuts to Medicaid” and to increase his pay. It references a Denver Post article from April explaining that lawmakers reduced payments to Medicaid providers to address a budget shortfall created by the state’s unique spending cap.

The spot does not mention Marine veteran Evan Munsing, the third Democrat running to flip Colorado’s 8th District.

CT-01

Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin defeated longtime Rep. John Larson at the Democratic Party’s endorsement convention on Monday, an outcome that makes Larson the first sitting congressman in Connecticut to fail to win at such a gathering.

Larson and Bronin will face off again in the Aug. 11 primary for the safely Democratic 1st Congressional District, but they won’t be alone. The congressman’s allies helped state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest secure the requisite 15% of the vote she needed to earn a spot on the summer ballot.

Gilchrest’s presence could make it easier for the 77-year-old Larson, who faces scrutiny about his age and health, to win renomination with just a plurality, even if a majority of primary voters think it’s time for someone new. And it’s possible that a fourth Democrat could also make the ballot and further split the non-Larson vote.

Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune secured only 2% of the vote on Monday, but she says she’ll try to get on the ballot by collecting signatures. Fortune has until June 9 to turn in signatures from 3,734 registered Democrats—a number that represents 2% of the district’s Democratic electorate—and she says she collected about 1,000 before the convention.

Bronin, Gilchrest, and Fortune, who are all in their 30s or 40s, have all argued that Larson, who was first elected to Congress in 1998, is no longer the right person to represent the Hartford area.

In a victory statement, Bronin declared, “I respect John Larson deeply. But I hope he listens to the message that was sent tonight by the most active, loyal Democrats in our party—that it’s time to pass the torch.”

Bronin emerged as the incumbent’s strongest opponent well before the convention. The most recent batch of fundraising reports showed that the ex-mayor enjoyed a roughly $1.7 million to $1 million cash-on-hand edge over Larson on April 21, while Gilchrest and Fortune had less than $50,000 between them.

Larson, for his part, has argued that he remains a strong voice for his constituents. His battle with Bronin, though, could extend well past the primary.

That’s because the Working Families Party, a labor-backed progressive third-party, endorsed Larson earlier this month. Connecticut’s fusion voting law allows candidates to claim multiple parties’ nominations, but the WFP hasn’t ruled out allowing Larson to keep its ballot line for the general election even if he loses to Bronin in August.

There was considerably less convention drama in the state’s four other congressional races.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro, 83, overwhelmingly won the party endorsement in the 3rd District and prevented microbiologist Andrew Rice, 37, from getting the 15% he needed to be assured a spot in the primary. Rice says he’ll petition his way onto the ballot, though he had less than $10,000 available to help accomplish that task.

Reps. Joe Courtney and Jim Himes, likewise, triumphed over little-known opponents, while Rep. Jahana Hayes has no intraparty opposition.

FL-14

Republican Bea Valenti, a former aide to Sen. Ashley Moody who also previously worked as a White House aide under Donald Trump, launched a bid for Florida’s redrawn 14th District on Tuesday.

Valenti is the first notable Republican to challenge longtime Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor in a district the GOP shifted sharply to the right, though she’s unlikely to be the last. Former state Rep. Mike Beltran tells Florida Politics he’s considering, and other would-be candidates have until the June 12 filing deadline to decide.

MD-05

Del. Adrian Boafo received endorsements from two of Maryland’s most prominent Democrats on Friday, Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, as he seeks to replace retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer in Congress.

Boafo is also getting help from Hoyer himself in the crowded June 23 Democratic primary for the safely blue 5th District, as Maryland Matters reports. The influential congressman’s leadership PAC has already spent $500,000 on mailers and digital ads to boost Boafo, who previously worked as Hoyer’s campaign manager.

In addition, a PAC funded by the cryptocurrency industry called Protect Progress has poured in another $300,000 to help Boafo. No other candidates have benefited from any outside spending yet.

TN-09

Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson said on Tuesday that he would continue his campaign for Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District, even though the GOP’s new gerrymander transformed it from a safely blue, majority-Black constituency into one that’s now deeply conservative and predominantly white.

Last year, Pearson launched a high-profile primary challenge against Rep. Steve Cohen that encapsulated the ongoing general battle within the Democratic Party. That battle will continue, since Cohen has said he’ll keep running, too, but the winner may earn only a hollow victory.

The overhauled 9th, which now stretches from South Memphis to the Nashville exurbs, would have voted for Donald Trump by a daunting 60-39 margin, making it nearly impossible turf for any Democrat. Both Cohen and Pearson are parties to a lawsuit in state court seeking to block the new map, but the state Supreme Court has generally been hostile to redistricting claims brought by Democrats.

So far, the only Republican seeking to seize the new opportunity brought about by the demise of the Voting Rights Act is state Sen. Brent Taylor, who said he’d run for the 9th District immediately after he and his colleagues passed their new map last week.

TX-35

Marine Corps veteran John Lira, who took fourth in the March Democratic primary for Texas’ 35th District, has rescinded his endorsement of the first-place finisher, Maureen Galindo, after media reports of Galindo’s antisemitic views began circulating widely in the last few days.

Galindo, a sex therapist, faces Bexar County Sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia in the May 26 runoff after edging past him by a 29-27 margin in the first round of voting. Both Lira, who ended up with 20% of the vote, and third-place candidate Whitney Masterson-Moyes, who took 23%, subsequently endorsed Galindo.

But Galindo’s fortunes may, perversely, have taken a turn for the worse after a Republican super PAC began sending out mailers seeking to help her defeat Garcia—undoubtedly with the hope that she’d be easier to defeat in November.

That move, however, helped call attention to Galindo’s history of antisemitic commentary.

“This is the thing that evangelicals and Jews in Israel—they want. They want to see the rap—they want to push the rapture as quick as possible, so that they can see this coming of Christ,” she said in one video she posted on Facebook last year. “And this is the way that all of the Jews who own Hollywood—they use books and movies to create realities.”

She also advised viewers “to follow Jesus as a radical who was fighting this church of Satan 2,000 years ago that still exists. He was trying to warn us, he was trying to warn us about these exact same people who worship Satan.”

When asked about the GOP’s intervention on her behalf by the New York Times, Galindo resorted to similar tropes.

“Dems and Republicans uniting against me in the same week with the same message is evidence that theyre working together for the zionist billionaires that control our government and tax money,” she told Shane Goldmacher in a text message.

Democratic organizations are trying to prevent Galindo from torpedoing their chances of holding the 35th District, which was made much redder by the gerrymandered map that Republicans passed last year.

The political arm of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition said on Tuesday that it would spend $450,000 on an ad campaign to help Garcia. The group’s new spot also slams Galindo for calling union workers “bootlickers.” Democratic Majority for Israel is also sending out mailers for Garcia, though the extent of their spending is not yet known.

Meanwhile, the Republican PAC boosting Galindo, with the misleading name of Lead Left, is ramping up its efforts. According to data from AdImpact obtained by Goldmacher, the group has already booked at least $80,000 in TV ad time in the San Antonio media market.

Republicans also have a runoff, between state Rep. John Lujan and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz. Lujan led 33-27 in March, but De La Cruz has Donald Trump’s endorsement, and an outside group called Defend Our Values is set to begin a $520,000 ad campaign to support him.

VA-02

Headlines you want: “Kiggans denies Dems criticism that she condoned racist remarks.”

On Monday, Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans sat for an interview with conservative radio host Rich Herrera in which she agreed enthusiastically after Herrera used a racist term to describe House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

“If Hakeem Jeffries wants to be involved in Virginia politics, then I suggest he does what all bunch of New Yorkers are doing: Leave New York, move down here to Virginia, run for office down here,” Herrera said during his show on WRVA. “You can represent us. If not, get your cotton-pickin’ hands off of Virginia.”

“That’s right,” Kiggans responded. “Ditto. Yes—yes to that.”

After the exchange was flagged by American Bridge, a Democratic opposition research group, it quickly went viral. Democrats demanded Kiggans apologize, but she refused to.

“The radio host should not have used that language and I do not -and did not - condone it,” she wrote on X. “It was obvious to anyone listening that I was agreeing Hakeem Jefferies should stay out of Virginia.”

Kiggans’ likely opponent in November, former Rep. Elaine Luria, was one of many Democrats who piled on.

“The racist comments proudly endorsed today by Jen Kiggans warning House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to ‘Get your cotton-picking hands off of Virginia’ are disgusting and beneath any elected official,” she posted on X. “I grew up in the South. I know what these racist dog whistles mean.”

Luria’s team also noted that a quarter of Virginia’s 2nd District, swingy turf in the Hampton Roads area, is Black.

Poll Pile

• AL-Sen (R): Remington Research Group:

  • Barry Moore: 23, Jared Hudson: 20, Steve Marshall: 16, other candidates 2% or less, undecided: 36.

  • March: Moore: 22, Marshall: 16, Hudson: 12.

• MI-Sen (D): Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS:

  • Abdul El-Sayed: 28, Haley Stevens: 18, Mallory McMorrow: 17, undecided: 38.

  • Nov.: Stevens: 27, McMorrow: 24, El-Sayed: 16.

• MI-Sen: Glengariff Group for the Detroit Regional Chamber:

  • Mike Rogers (R): 45, El-Sayed (D): 40. (Jan.: 48-42 Rogers.)

  • Rogers (R): 44, Stevens (D): 42. (Jan.: 44-44 tie.)

  • Rogers (R): 43, McMorrow (D): 41. (Jan.: 46-42 Rogers.)

  • The January poll was conducted for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV.

• MI-Gov (D): Mitchell:

  • Jocelyn Benson: 62, Chris Swanson: 8.

• MI-Gov: Glengariff for the Detroit Regional Chamber (pro-Mike Duggan):

  • Benson (D): 34, John James (R): 29, Mike Duggan (I): 23. (Jan.: James: 34, Benson: 32, Duggan: 26.)

  • Benson (D): 34, Perry Johnson (R): 26, Duggan (I): 23.

• CA-22 (top-two primary): Data for Progress for the Working Families Party (pro-Randy Villegas):

  • David Valadao (R-inc): 44, Randy Villegas (D): 25, Jasmeet Bains (D): 21.

• MI-07: Public Policy Polling for Matt Maasdam:

  • Matt Maasdam (D): 45, Tom Barrett (R-inc): 44.

  • Bridget Brink (D): 46, Barrett (R-inc): 45.

  • The release did not mention William Lawrence, who is also seeking the Democratic nomination.

• TX-09 (R): University of Houston:

  • Alex Mealer: 50, Briscoe Cain: 41.

• TX-18 (D): UH:

  • Christian Menefee (D-inc): 50, Al Green (D-inc): 43.