I like the idea of this being the first comment every morning. A "please keep your arms in legs inside the vehicle at all times" sort of kick-off. That way new people or less frequent visitors to the comment section will see it right at the top of the comments.
TN-9: Republican state Rep. Todd Warner is in, challenging state Sen. Brent Taylor for the nomination. He was under investigation for misusing taxpayer funds, which caused former state Rep. Glen Casada to go to prison in the same case.
Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen is considering reelection, while state Rep. Justin J. Pearson is in.
Now, Democratic state Sen. London Lamar is also running. She thinks Pearson should switch to the 5th, where he lives. Current Democrats running there include Columbia mayor Chaz Molder and Nashville councilman Mike Cortese, who will likely switch to the 4th under the new map.
Why is she disgraced, or why is she running? I can't answer the latter, but she has plenty of scandals that plagued her previous congressional campaign.
I really just don’t get how we are trailing in Michigan. Rogers lost in the last cycle in a much worse environment for us, Slotkin was a strong candidate but not so much stronger that she’d perform 10+ points better relative to the environment than the people we have this year.
Sharron Angle, Blake Masters, Christine O’Donnell, etc all lost in red waves. If the candidate is perceived as too extreme, they can lose regardless of a wave.
Yup, candidate quality matters. O'Donnell in particular flipped a sure win to a sure loss in a ridiculously strong red wave. Angle almost certainly cost the Rs a seat that year as well. Masters turned a presumed close race to a comfortable win in 2022 for Kelly.
Ok, but Rogers is also leading Stevens and McMorrow, who absolutely aren’t too extreme. Stevens is to the right of Slotkin. How is a Republican who lost in 2024 leading the entire Democratic field, regardless of the quality and ideology of the candidates?
I think Lune explains it well above. We have a divided primary and Rogers doesn't. There will be people who currently are saying "I'll never vote for (opposing primary candidate)" who, in fact, will vote for opposing primary candidate in the end. It's the same reason some of us are skeptical of the Texas senate polls right now. If one side is getting no negative attacks thrown at them, and the other side is lobbing attacks at each other, you'd expect the side who isn't taking bullets to have an artificial advantage in the polling. That won't necessarily last once the primary ends and they get the guns aimed at them.
The question is what percentage of the vote each primary candidate will be able to consolidate. That's a valid and open question.
This is all true, but -- also like Texas -- the candidates are all not even in the types of attacks they will face in the general and how well they will hold up.
Obama won Nevada and Delaware by large margins in both of his runs. And 2022 wasn't a red wave. Trump barely won Michigan and 2026 does look a lot more like a wave than 2022 did.
Against McMorrow or Stevens Rogers likely loses. AES scares me as a gross underperformer, and polls show him doing several points worse H2H than the others.
I think the main question with El-Sayed in a general election is whether he gains more votes from Michigan's substantial Muslim population than he loses from Michigan's substantial racist population.
He can't really lose ground with the racist population given they pretty much all voted for Trump and the 2026 electorate will almost certainly be Harris won in the state.
I think his politics are more likely to cost him votes than racism (which will also cost him votes). As I've said before here, I still think he'd win in this blue environment, but it will cause us way more anxiety than we need from a seat that should be a layup for us. To say nothing of his chances of keeping the seat in 2032....
A "couple points" matters quite a bit in a toss-up election in a swing state. Especially when "a couple" is more than the "two" implied by the term.
Glengariff:
Stevens: -2 to TIED
McMorrow: -2 to TIED
AED: -5 to -3
(A 3.0 point underperformance)
Emerson:
Stevens: +5
McMorrow: +3
AED: TIED
(A 4.0 point underperformance on average)
In fact, Stevens leads in more polls than she traila this cycle, McMorrow leads in slightly fever than half, while AED leads only one half of one poll the entire cycle. He is an electoral liability, whether we admit it or not
I’m still thinking he gets carried across by a blue wave. He could lose in a reverse 2022 environment, but there are no signs of that happening. I don’t see Generic D having worse than a 4 point win.
TN-7: A trio of Democrats, including Nashville councilman Jacob Kupin, state Rep. Vincent Dixie and businessman Darden Copeland will run here. Dixie ran but dropped out when the old map was still in place. Dixie and Copeland also ran for this district when it held a special election last year.
A lot of Tennessee news this morning, huh? The Memphis city council unanimously voted to reject the new congressional map, which means absolutely nothing.
NC-5: Longtime Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx is in hot water for talking down to a 4th grader that wrote her a letter.
The 10 year old wrote to her suggesting a $5 thousand tax rebate for EVs. Foxx said this was "sad" and encouraged him to "ask his teachers about propaganda."
Foxx's district, usually in rural Appalachia, was drawn to include the bulk of Greensboro, a large blue city, in 2024.
If Foxx's challenger has a good GOTV effort and hits her on high gas prices and tariffs, they may have a shot. The awful letter she sent (likely written by a staffer) isn't going to endear her to voters in Guilford County either.
⬆️"If Foxx's challenger has a good GOTV effort and hits her on high gas prices and tariffs..."
I'm in NC and I haven't heard much about Foxx's Democratic opponent, Chuck Hubbard. His bio mentions he graduated from college in 1985, so he is 60+. He also ran against her in 2024 and loat by almost 20 pts.
I have heard a lot more about Edwards' opponent, Jamie Ager. Ager's bio mentions he graduated with his bachelors in 2000, so he is a good bit younger than Hubbard.
Especially her screaming "shut up" at a press conference. Out of all the NC Congressional Republicans, I want her and that cheating scumbag Mark Harris out the most.
How confusing it must be for kids to learn about climate change from one set of adults and become greatly concerned about this terrifying future, only to have other adults who can do something about it tell them they're being deceived by people they trust. Thankfully most kids figure out early on that not every adult knows what they're talking about.
Foxx berated Yassamin Ansari, who is nearly half a century younger than Foxx, at a committee meeting earlier this Congress, and that included Foxx bizarrely claiming to have "worked every day" of an eight-week House recess.
Berating an in-state elementary school child is far more controversial than berating a colleague who represents a district around 1,800 miles or so away.
More Tennessee news: most Democrats in the state House just lost committee assignments for their protests on redistricting last week. This group includes the Tennessee Three, who were once expelled from the state House but allowed to return.
I'd actually chalk it up to name rec and voters picking him by default once Swalwell dropped out rather than some sort of comeback. We will see how much staying power he has. He's beeng getting savaged by the other Dems in the race, plus former Obama and Biden folks in DC for being an empty suit. Interviews and press like the ones in the link don't help either. I would actualyl bet he falls back rather than gains going forward.
Is there time for that to happen, though? Seems like Steyer might be hitting his ceiling, and there was already a "Porter-curious" period for former Swalwell backers (like I would have been, if I lived in CA) that faded and went to Becerra.
He's become the default "normie lane" candidate, as it always seemed likely someone would.
I'm not even sure either Becerra or Steyer is ideologically that different, but Becerra is lower variance (one can expect him to have a good relationship with the legislature, where Steyer is more of an outsider/unknown - could be great, could implode).
CA is not a state where I'd feel like I needed to take more of a gamble.
As others have noted, Becerra may be overrepresented in polling by the types of people who answer texts and calls from people they don't know. Steyer is likely reaching potential voters who are less actively engaged, but seeing constant Steyer ads on TV, streaming, etc. Bloomberg had the same thing happening. I think Steyer and Porter will overperform their polling.
That would be a fascinating general election. Even ignoring the electoral benefits to us of an all dem top two and driving down republican turnout, I'd want to see it happen in order to see how it plays out.
It’s happened before in the 2016 Senate race where Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez were the two nominees in the general election. Not completely improbable.
It's also happened in several House races like the marquee Berman-Sherman race of 2012. The solution for Republicans then and with 2016 was to support the conservative Democrats, Berman and Sanchez.
Berman and Sherman in 2012 were very similar politically besides having rhyming names. Sherman won, partially because more of the new district had been in his old district than in Berman's and because Brad was younger and more vigorous than Howard. He was more visible in SFV politics than Howard Berman, who was more a creature of DC. The race was about who was more effective than the other. Other than trade policy I can't see what was more conservative or liberal about them. The younger guy beat the older one clinging to power. Now Brad is the old guy, whose challenger, Jake Levine, is the son or former Rep. Mel Levine. We'll see what happens this time, though I expect Sherman to hold on. He is only 71, which is not ancient by congressional standards.
Berman supported the Iraq invasion (Sherman voted for it but later regretted it and pushed for an end, and Berman helped put the framework in place), the FISA act and NAFTA; was socially conservative on some issues, and had endorsements from the likes of Lindsey Graham, Joe Lieberman and most of California's Republican delegation at the time.
Sherman, on the other hand, opposed free trade and government surveillance, and is generally pretty left-leaning (apart from a few issues nowadays).
I wouldn’t call those races the best examples. They are House races and in blue districts which the GOP never had the chance at winning in the first place.
They didn't really have great chances at winning the Harris-Sanchez race either - I was just listing other examples of Democrat-on-Democrat races. I could have also said Janice Hahn v. Laura Richardson.
I think they'd leave it blank tbh. Steyer's fairly markedly to the left of Becerra on several issues and pumped millions of dollars into the gerrymander.
Dems running behind now in the polls can plan on a close race in the Fall- the economy is tanking with Trump's policies and Trump's war. Democrats should fill the ballot everywhere because the blue wave or possibly blue Tsunami will carry in many Ds that look like the underdog now. I would urge Democratic candidates for state offices to push combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections. This reform will boost voter turnout and save millions in tax money. It will also increase the number of women and number of minorities elected to local government. Virginia Dems must lower the age for judges to retire to 70 or 65. For Democracy's sake,Fight Back!!!
It looks like 12 states are not yet past the filing deadline, but many of those are rapidly approaching. (Note: you can click on the column header to resort the data).
So that means all of them will be done by the end of 2028. Kemp has already said he plans to do it in GA before he leaves office. Reeves says MS will do it next year. There's no reason to think SC, for the first time in its entire history, will defend Black representation.
I wonder what the impact will be if several of the states that redistricted this year end up with a dummymander and the GOP loses previously safe seats?
Also, would the remaining states redraw based on 2024 election results or 2026 election results?
In the meantime, I will be working hard to ensure that we do win in November!!
I don't think any of the gerrymandered states have the potential for dummymander (i.e. a map that causes you to lose more seats than you would have if you had not gerrymandered it). It's just that their gerrymanders may not work in a wave year.
NC-03 and FL-12 are the only seats I can count that became realistically competitive as a result of GOP redistricting. AL, FL, OH, and TX have gerrymanders that will probably fail in several places, but that doesn't make them a dummymander.
If any state has the potential for a dummymander in the future, it's California. Several seats moved into competitive range that were previously safe, although it would take a fairly substantial red wave to flip them.
The Philippine Senate is currently experiencing both a shooting and Senator Robert Dela Rosa evading arrest from the ICC. Dela Rosa is an ally of former President Rodrigo Duterte. The Senate also recently got a new president after the body voted to oust the former one.
Holy shit! Whatever happens, I wish the Filipino people well. (I'll note that street protests are quite common in the Philippines, with two separate authoritarians having been taken out by revolutions, so I trust the Filipino people can handle this.)
I had no idea Duterte was in The Hague facing charges of crimes against humanity. That's where Bush should have been, since he somehow could never be charged in the U.S.
Yet more validation of my argument about American voters being red-hot angry at the Trump admin in ways that have yet to materialize. I think November is going to be something else.
Kirkpatrick will make a nice companion to the only Democrat on the court, Bill Wooton, who like Kirkpatrick is moderate but is slightly left of center. I haven't met Kirkpatrick but Wooton is a nice man.
Kirkpatrick won and was appointed to the court previously by a Democratic governor, yes? That is an upgrade.
And while Flanagan is indeed a Republican, he was backed by local Dems and was instrumental in passing the med marijuana bill.
Both candidates beat justices appointed by the sitting GOP Trump loving governor.
Yeah, WV isn't Hawaii or California. That isn't news. But to say that it wasn't a good night in WV is just nuts. That was the best possible outcome on the SCT races.
Yeah, Kirkpatrick was a Caperton appointee in the 90s, who was Clinton-esque with style and ideology.
But mentioning Flanigan's support for medical marijuana does not excuse his other votes for terrible legislation, and medical marijuana cards have near universal approval throughout the state, so it probably would have passed anyway.
It was the best outcome, but I wish there was a better candidate in the race Flanigan won.
Just wanted to note that we've published a "rules of the road" for The Downballot community. I ask everyone here to read and abide. Thank you!
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-community-rules-of
I like the idea of this being the first comment every morning. A "please keep your arms in legs inside the vehicle at all times" sort of kick-off. That way new people or less frequent visitors to the comment section will see it right at the top of the comments.
Hahaha not a bad idea! I'd just have to remember to do it every day.
Could you put it under the About tab on the landing page?
I added it to the sidebar! I don't know if anyone ever looks there, but it's there now.
https://tennesseelookout.com/2026/05/12/tennessees-new-9th-district-draws-republican-race/
TN-9: Republican state Rep. Todd Warner is in, challenging state Sen. Brent Taylor for the nomination. He was under investigation for misusing taxpayer funds, which caused former state Rep. Glen Casada to go to prison in the same case.
Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen is considering reelection, while state Rep. Justin J. Pearson is in.
https://nashvillebanner.com/2026/05/13/tennessee-redistricting-democrats-congressional-candidates/
Now, Democratic state Sen. London Lamar is also running. She thinks Pearson should switch to the 5th, where he lives. Current Democrats running there include Columbia mayor Chaz Molder and Nashville councilman Mike Cortese, who will likely switch to the 4th under the new map.
I like this. Even though basically none of them will win, Dems are scrambling to run (I assume) purely to spite the GOP for trying to intimidate us.
Plus, they give us candidates in candidate-less races. You can't win if you don't show up.
https://www.axios.com/local/nashville/2026/05/13/former-mayor-megan-barry-might-run-congress
TN-6: Disgraced former Nashville mayor Megan Barry, a Democrat, will likely run here, now an open seat.
Why?
Why is she disgraced, or why is she running? I can't answer the latter, but she has plenty of scandals that plagued her previous congressional campaign.
The latter.
Good news from NE.
MI Sen polls continue to look a bit worrisome with all 3 trailing.
I really just don’t get how we are trailing in Michigan. Rogers lost in the last cycle in a much worse environment for us, Slotkin was a strong candidate but not so much stronger that she’d perform 10+ points better relative to the environment than the people we have this year.
I think it's because we have a competitive primary while Rogers doesn't. We'll likely make up the gap and get in the lead in the late summer/fall.
Sharron Angle, Blake Masters, Christine O’Donnell, etc all lost in red waves. If the candidate is perceived as too extreme, they can lose regardless of a wave.
Yup, candidate quality matters. O'Donnell in particular flipped a sure win to a sure loss in a ridiculously strong red wave. Angle almost certainly cost the Rs a seat that year as well. Masters turned a presumed close race to a comfortable win in 2022 for Kelly.
Ok, but Rogers is also leading Stevens and McMorrow, who absolutely aren’t too extreme. Stevens is to the right of Slotkin. How is a Republican who lost in 2024 leading the entire Democratic field, regardless of the quality and ideology of the candidates?
Name rec at this moment. Undecideds will likely come home.
I think Lune explains it well above. We have a divided primary and Rogers doesn't. There will be people who currently are saying "I'll never vote for (opposing primary candidate)" who, in fact, will vote for opposing primary candidate in the end. It's the same reason some of us are skeptical of the Texas senate polls right now. If one side is getting no negative attacks thrown at them, and the other side is lobbing attacks at each other, you'd expect the side who isn't taking bullets to have an artificial advantage in the polling. That won't necessarily last once the primary ends and they get the guns aimed at them.
The question is what percentage of the vote each primary candidate will be able to consolidate. That's a valid and open question.
This is all true, but -- also like Texas -- the candidates are all not even in the types of attacks they will face in the general and how well they will hold up.
Obama won Nevada and Delaware by large margins in both of his runs. And 2022 wasn't a red wave. Trump barely won Michigan and 2026 does look a lot more like a wave than 2022 did.
Calm down about MI Sen. It's just one poll and Rogers has a name rec advantage over all of them right now.
Pretty sure he's been leading in other polls too but I don't think he'll win
Against McMorrow or Stevens Rogers likely loses. AES scares me as a gross underperformer, and polls show him doing several points worse H2H than the others.
He isn't. He's only running a couple points behind the other two actually.
I think the main question with El-Sayed in a general election is whether he gains more votes from Michigan's substantial Muslim population than he loses from Michigan's substantial racist population.
He can't really lose ground with the racist population given they pretty much all voted for Trump and the 2026 electorate will almost certainly be Harris won in the state.
I think his politics are more likely to cost him votes than racism (which will also cost him votes). As I've said before here, I still think he'd win in this blue environment, but it will cause us way more anxiety than we need from a seat that should be a layup for us. To say nothing of his chances of keeping the seat in 2032....
A "couple points" matters quite a bit in a toss-up election in a swing state. Especially when "a couple" is more than the "two" implied by the term.
Glengariff:
Stevens: -2 to TIED
McMorrow: -2 to TIED
AED: -5 to -3
(A 3.0 point underperformance)
Emerson:
Stevens: +5
McMorrow: +3
AED: TIED
(A 4.0 point underperformance on average)
In fact, Stevens leads in more polls than she traila this cycle, McMorrow leads in slightly fever than half, while AED leads only one half of one poll the entire cycle. He is an electoral liability, whether we admit it or not
I’m still thinking he gets carried across by a blue wave. He could lose in a reverse 2022 environment, but there are no signs of that happening. I don’t see Generic D having worse than a 4 point win.
https://nashvillebanner.com/2026/05/13/tennessee-redistricting-democrats-congressional-candidates/
TN-7: A trio of Democrats, including Nashville councilman Jacob Kupin, state Rep. Vincent Dixie and businessman Darden Copeland will run here. Dixie ran but dropped out when the old map was still in place. Dixie and Copeland also ran for this district when it held a special election last year.
A lot of Tennessee news this morning, huh? The Memphis city council unanimously voted to reject the new congressional map, which means absolutely nothing.
https://www.myfox8.com/news/north-carolina/greensboro/greensboro-mother-slams-nc-rep-virginia-foxx-for-response-to-10-year-old-sons-essay/amp/
NC-5: Longtime Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx is in hot water for talking down to a 4th grader that wrote her a letter.
The 10 year old wrote to her suggesting a $5 thousand tax rebate for EVs. Foxx said this was "sad" and encouraged him to "ask his teachers about propaganda."
Foxx's district, usually in rural Appalachia, was drawn to include the bulk of Greensboro, a large blue city, in 2024.
She’s been real foot in mouth syndrome for a long time hasn’t she
If Chuck Edwards can lose, I think she can. They're both controversial enough and represent similar constituencies.
Edwards strikes me as likelier with Asheville entirely within
If Foxx's challenger has a good GOTV effort and hits her on high gas prices and tariffs, they may have a shot. The awful letter she sent (likely written by a staffer) isn't going to endear her to voters in Guilford County either.
Also, Foxx’s record on hurricane relief is not good. She voted against Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy finding.
I don’t know how she ever got elected to politics. Foxx is not someone I’d ever want representing me with her attitude the way it is.
⬆️"If Foxx's challenger has a good GOTV effort and hits her on high gas prices and tariffs..."
I'm in NC and I haven't heard much about Foxx's Democratic opponent, Chuck Hubbard. His bio mentions he graduated from college in 1985, so he is 60+. He also ran against her in 2024 and loat by almost 20 pts.
I have heard a lot more about Edwards' opponent, Jamie Ager. Ager's bio mentions he graduated with his bachelors in 2000, so he is a good bit younger than Hubbard.
Especially her screaming "shut up" at a press conference. Out of all the NC Congressional Republicans, I want her and that cheating scumbag Mark Harris out the most.
Good lord what a disgusting reply to a kid.
How confusing it must be for kids to learn about climate change from one set of adults and become greatly concerned about this terrifying future, only to have other adults who can do something about it tell them they're being deceived by people they trust. Thankfully most kids figure out early on that not every adult knows what they're talking about.
Foxx berated Yassamin Ansari, who is nearly half a century younger than Foxx, at a committee meeting earlier this Congress, and that included Foxx bizarrely claiming to have "worked every day" of an eight-week House recess.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DQ8U_eIDR52/
Berating an in-state elementary school child is far more controversial than berating a colleague who represents a district around 1,800 miles or so away.
If Kiggans wasn’t trying to be racist, she could’ve just said “Jeffries needs to stay away from Virginia” or something to that effect.
She knew exactly what she was talking about, hence her half-assed non apology.
She didn't actually say the racist thing, but she did say "ditto, yes to that"
https://www.wsmv.com/2026/05/12/multiple-tn-democrats-stripped-all-committee-assignments/
More Tennessee news: most Democrats in the state House just lost committee assignments for their protests on redistricting last week. This group includes the Tennessee Three, who were once expelled from the state House but allowed to return.
Sheer pettiness and classlessness from TN Rs, particularly Brandon Sexton.
Emerson CA poll Ds pulling out of lockout territory https://x.com/EmersonPolling/status/2054548444526825559?s=20
Amazing comeback for Becerra, if true.
I'd actually chalk it up to name rec and voters picking him by default once Swalwell dropped out rather than some sort of comeback. We will see how much staying power he has. He's beeng getting savaged by the other Dems in the race, plus former Obama and Biden folks in DC for being an empty suit. Interviews and press like the ones in the link don't help either. I would actualyl bet he falls back rather than gains going forward.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/becerra-viral-tv-interview-california-governor.html
Is there time for that to happen, though? Seems like Steyer might be hitting his ceiling, and there was already a "Porter-curious" period for former Swalwell backers (like I would have been, if I lived in CA) that faded and went to Becerra.
He's become the default "normie lane" candidate, as it always seemed likely someone would.
I'm not even sure either Becerra or Steyer is ideologically that different, but Becerra is lower variance (one can expect him to have a good relationship with the legislature, where Steyer is more of an outsider/unknown - could be great, could implode).
CA is not a state where I'd feel like I needed to take more of a gamble.
Would prefer Mahan personally as he seems the most competent of the bunch, if somewhat bland.
As others have noted, Becerra may be overrepresented in polling by the types of people who answer texts and calls from people they don't know. Steyer is likely reaching potential voters who are less actively engaged, but seeing constant Steyer ads on TV, streaming, etc. Bloomberg had the same thing happening. I think Steyer and Porter will overperform their polling.
Becerra v Steyer is the dream lol
That would be a fascinating general election. Even ignoring the electoral benefits to us of an all dem top two and driving down republican turnout, I'd want to see it happen in order to see how it plays out.
It’s happened before in the 2016 Senate race where Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez were the two nominees in the general election. Not completely improbable.
It's also happened in several House races like the marquee Berman-Sherman race of 2012. The solution for Republicans then and with 2016 was to support the conservative Democrats, Berman and Sanchez.
You have a weird definition of conservative
Berman and Sanchez were supported by Republicans, though.
Berman and Sherman in 2012 were very similar politically besides having rhyming names. Sherman won, partially because more of the new district had been in his old district than in Berman's and because Brad was younger and more vigorous than Howard. He was more visible in SFV politics than Howard Berman, who was more a creature of DC. The race was about who was more effective than the other. Other than trade policy I can't see what was more conservative or liberal about them. The younger guy beat the older one clinging to power. Now Brad is the old guy, whose challenger, Jake Levine, is the son or former Rep. Mel Levine. We'll see what happens this time, though I expect Sherman to hold on. He is only 71, which is not ancient by congressional standards.
Berman supported the Iraq invasion (Sherman voted for it but later regretted it and pushed for an end, and Berman helped put the framework in place), the FISA act and NAFTA; was socially conservative on some issues, and had endorsements from the likes of Lindsey Graham, Joe Lieberman and most of California's Republican delegation at the time.
Sherman, on the other hand, opposed free trade and government surveillance, and is generally pretty left-leaning (apart from a few issues nowadays).
I wouldn’t call those races the best examples. They are House races and in blue districts which the GOP never had the chance at winning in the first place.
They didn't really have great chances at winning the Harris-Sanchez race either - I was just listing other examples of Democrat-on-Democrat races. I could have also said Janice Hahn v. Laura Richardson.
I would imagine advantage Steyer in that scenario. He'd probably win the republicans.
I think they'd leave it blank tbh. Steyer's fairly markedly to the left of Becerra on several issues and pumped millions of dollars into the gerrymander.
To be transparent, just yesterday I sent my mail-in ballot for Tom Steyer for exactly what you are describing.
I'm curious why Bianco has fallen back in several polls? You'd think Hilton would have risen because of it.
Trump endorsed Hilton a few weeks ago. Would imagine any undecided Rs go with him when it comes down to it due to that
A shame to see Porter so far behind. Ah well I'm more than happy with Becerra or Steyer.
Dems running behind now in the polls can plan on a close race in the Fall- the economy is tanking with Trump's policies and Trump's war. Democrats should fill the ballot everywhere because the blue wave or possibly blue Tsunami will carry in many Ds that look like the underdog now. I would urge Democratic candidates for state offices to push combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections. This reform will boost voter turnout and save millions in tax money. It will also increase the number of women and number of minorities elected to local government. Virginia Dems must lower the age for judges to retire to 70 or 65. For Democracy's sake,Fight Back!!!
⬆️Democrats should fill the ballot everywhere because the blue wave or possibly blue Tsunami will carry in many Ds that look like the underdog now.
I'm not sure how many states there are that aren't already past their filing deadlines.
Edited to add: I just remember that The Downballot has posted this information here:
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-2026-election-calendar?
It looks like 12 states are not yet past the filing deadline, but many of those are rapidly approaching. (Note: you can click on the column header to resort the data).
KY 4: Massie falls behind according to Quantus.
https://quantusinsights.org/f/kentucky-cd4-republican-primary-gallrein-leads-massie
Pity. I’d like to see Thomas Massie continue to be a thorn in the side of Trump and Mike Johnson. I’m still hoping…
MS not redistricting this year says Gov Reeves https://x.com/Mwilburn123/status/2054575494981411310?s=20
So that means all of them will be done by the end of 2028. Kemp has already said he plans to do it in GA before he leaves office. Reeves says MS will do it next year. There's no reason to think SC, for the first time in its entire history, will defend Black representation.
I wonder what the impact will be if several of the states that redistricted this year end up with a dummymander and the GOP loses previously safe seats?
Also, would the remaining states redraw based on 2024 election results or 2026 election results?
In the meantime, I will be working hard to ensure that we do win in November!!
I don't think any of the gerrymandered states have the potential for dummymander (i.e. a map that causes you to lose more seats than you would have if you had not gerrymandered it). It's just that their gerrymanders may not work in a wave year.
NC-03 and FL-12 are the only seats I can count that became realistically competitive as a result of GOP redistricting. AL, FL, OH, and TX have gerrymanders that will probably fail in several places, but that doesn't make them a dummymander.
If any state has the potential for a dummymander in the future, it's California. Several seats moved into competitive range that were previously safe, although it would take a fairly substantial red wave to flip them.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/13/asia/gunshots-philippine-senate-dela-rosa-intl
The Philippine Senate is currently experiencing both a shooting and Senator Robert Dela Rosa evading arrest from the ICC. Dela Rosa is an ally of former President Rodrigo Duterte. The Senate also recently got a new president after the body voted to oust the former one.
Holy shit! Whatever happens, I wish the Filipino people well. (I'll note that street protests are quite common in the Philippines, with two separate authoritarians having been taken out by revolutions, so I trust the Filipino people can handle this.)
Let's also note that the Filipino electorate has repeatedly elected authoritarians. Fair is fair.
I had no idea Duterte was in The Hague facing charges of crimes against humanity. That's where Bush should have been, since he somehow could never be charged in the U.S.
Did anyone have the Dem backed candidates winning multiple state supreme court races IN WEST VIRGINIA on their bingo cards?
Non-partisan, but damn.
Yet more validation of my argument about American voters being red-hot angry at the Trump admin in ways that have yet to materialize. I think November is going to be something else.
The candidates did defeat the governor and Federalist Society-backed incumbents, but that doesn't mean they're progressives.
It is West Virgina, for crying out loud.
the one candidate is a registered republican, do we know if he is going to be an upgrade?
Absolutely not. Morrisey appointee Ewing is an establishment conservative, but Flanigan is far right.
so slight upgrade with Kirkpatrick, and downgrade with Flanigan. Thank you for the WV low-down as always Julius
Kirkpatrick will make a nice companion to the only Democrat on the court, Bill Wooton, who like Kirkpatrick is moderate but is slightly left of center. I haven't met Kirkpatrick but Wooton is a nice man.
Kirkpatrick won and was appointed to the court previously by a Democratic governor, yes? That is an upgrade.
And while Flanagan is indeed a Republican, he was backed by local Dems and was instrumental in passing the med marijuana bill.
Both candidates beat justices appointed by the sitting GOP Trump loving governor.
Yeah, WV isn't Hawaii or California. That isn't news. But to say that it wasn't a good night in WV is just nuts. That was the best possible outcome on the SCT races.
Yeah, Kirkpatrick was a Caperton appointee in the 90s, who was Clinton-esque with style and ideology.
But mentioning Flanigan's support for medical marijuana does not excuse his other votes for terrible legislation, and medical marijuana cards have near universal approval throughout the state, so it probably would have passed anyway.
It was the best outcome, but I wish there was a better candidate in the race Flanigan won.
This is misleading.
While Titus and Ewing were conservative Morrisey appointees, Kirkpatrick is far from a Democrat, and Flanigan *is* a Republican.
Besides, the only reason Kirkpatrick won is because the conservative vote was split between Titus and Laura Faircloth.
Doesn't really matter why Kirkpatrick won, he's on the Court for 6 years now.
I believe it's 10 years, not 6.
A full term is 12 years, but these were special elections to fill an unexpired term. The seat Kirkpatrick won is up again in 2032.
SD-SEN:
Former 2022 Democratic Senate Candidate Brian Bengs’ decision to run for the Senate again but as an Independent seems to have paid off.
Bengs raised more than $250,000 in Q1, the largest for an Independent candidate since 2008.
https://www.thedakotascout.com/p/south-dakota-independents-first-quarter
Louisiana Democrats are focused on voting NO on all four amendments backed by Gov Landry on Saturday's primary elections.
https://www.nola.com/news/politics/louisiana-early-voting/article_b01f458c-b1c6-4e3a-81bf-c74dd09c6428.html