Morning Digest: How many Nebraska Senate candidates actually want to serve in the Senate?

All sides are jockeying to either help or hurt Dan Osborn's independent candidacy

Nebraska independent Dan Osborn—who unquestionably does want to serve in the U.S. Senate. (Credit: Dan Osborn site)

Leading Off

NE-Sen

Nebraska’s U.S. Senate race takes center stage on Tuesday as the 2026 primary season continues, and much of the attention is focused on a trio of candidates who may have no intention of actually serving in the upper chamber.

The Democratic contest pits political newcomer Cindy Burbank against pastor Bill Forbes, an anti-abortion activist who has acknowledged he voted for Donald Trump in multiple elections.

But Burbank has argued that Democrats should nominate her so she can help independent Dan Osborn, a former labor leader who waged a competitive race for Nebraska’s other Senate seat in 2024, defeat Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts.

Burbank has said she’d drop out once Osborn qualifies for the general election ballot, which would help him consolidate support from Nebraskans across the political spectrum who want to oust Ricketts, a former governor and wealthy GOP donor.

Burbank, Osborn, and the leadership of the state Democratic Party, likewise, believe that Forbes, whom Burbank calls a “Ricketts puppet,” only wants to be the Democratic nominee to prevent Osborn from putting together a winning coalition. Forbes has denied he’s anything other than a “real Democrat.”

Similar questions surround the primary for the Legal Marijuana Now Party, a tiny group whose nomination contests rarely generate much attention. But Earl Starkey, who’s seeking the party’s nomination, and the LMN’s leadership have accused Mike Marvin, Starkey’s intraparty rival, of being a “Dan Osborn Plant.”

Marvin has denied the accusation, though Republicans have pointed out that Burbank paid the $1,740 filing fee Marvin needed to get on the ballot to bolster their argument that Marvin only wants to be the LMN’s nominee so he can help Osborn by leaving the race.

Burbank, for her part, has likewise disputed that she has any connection to Marvin. She instead told the Nebraska Examiner that she was filing her own paperwork at the secretary of state’s office when she said she saw election officials were refusing to accept a check from Marvin because it was for $10 too much.

“It pissed me off, and I paid for it … I’ve never met Mike,” she told the outlet. “If Ricketts can throw his money around then so can I!”

---

The Downballot only exists because of our readers.

We have no deep-pocketed corporate backers and no billionaire sugar daddies. That means we can always tell the truth without fear—something major media conglomerates increasingly refuse to do. But it also means we need as many people as possible to sign up as paid subscribers so that we can keep the lights on.

If you’re able to support our work, we hope you’ll upgrade today.

---

GOP gerrymandering just keeps getting worse

Election Night

NE-02

The other major primary to watch Tuesday is the busy Democratic contest for Nebraska’s 2nd District, which was already one of the party’s top pickup opportunities even before Republican Rep. Don Bacon decided to retire last year.

State Sen. John Cavanaugh, who hails from a prominent political family in the Omaha area, was the early frontrunner, but that was before he became the target of massive outside spending.

Third-party outfits have deployed over $5 million to either attack him or to promote political strategist Denise Powell, who appears to be his main rival. Two other notable Democratic candidates, former Veterans Department official Kishla Askins and Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades, haven’t been the target of any outside spending.

Powell, Askins, and other Cavanaugh detractors have warned that his election to Congress would allow Republican Gov. Jim Pillen to appoint a replacement in Nebraska’s unicameral legislature who could provide the crucial vote to end the district’s status as a “blue dot” in the Electoral College.

Nebraska’s unusual law awarding an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district came into play in 2024 when Kamala Harris carried the 2nd District 52-47 even as Donald Trump easily won the state as a whole.

Republicans have also been meddling in the primary with ads ostensibly praising Cavanaugh for “working to enact Trump’s policy.”

The GOP, though, doesn’t appear to be united in its desire to stop Cavanaugh from being nominated. In January, the conservative Washington Examiner circulated a list, drawn up by anonymous GOP operatives, that identified Cavanaugh as one of several Democratic candidates who supposedly might cost their party winnable races by being too progressive.

Cavanaugh, for his part, has benefited from only about $400,000 in outside spending to counter the barrage. He has, however, sought to make Powell’s allies a liability for her by labeling her “Dark Money Denise.”

Cavanaugh has also argued that Democrats will pick up enough seats in the legislature to protect Nebraska’s system of awarding an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district.

The eventual nominee will go up against Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding, who has no opposition for the Republican nod.

Other Nebraska & West Virginia Primaries

Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen faces a Republican primary challenge from Scott Petersen, a businessman who wants to limit who can vote by mail.

Citing unfounded fears about a lack of trust in elections, which have been stoked by conspiracy theorists, Petersen told the Nebraska Examiner that a crackdown on mail voting is necessary. Evnen has pushed back by calling his state’s elections the “gold standard.”

Democrats in the Omaha area, meanwhile, will choose their nominee to take on Douglas County Attorney Don Kleine, a former Democrat who joined the GOP in 2020. The primary pits Amy Jacobsen, a former prosecutor who says Kleine sacked her after she said she’d challenge him, against Makayla Danner, another local prosecutor.

Over in West Virginia, the main action has been in Republican primaries for the GOP-dominated state legislature. Gov. Patrick Morrisey and well-funded groups that support school vouchers are targeting several incumbents and open seats.

There’s less suspense in this dark-red state’s congressional contests. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, who has Trump’s endorsement, is favored to fend off state Sen. Tom Willis and four other primary opponents, while GOP Rep. Carol Miller faces only an underfunded intraparty opponent in the 1st District. Rep. Riley Moore, Moore Capito’s nephew, is unopposed for renomination in the 2nd District.

Redistricting Roundup

AL Redistricting

The Supreme Court vacated injunctions that had blocked Alabama from using a new congressional map on Monday, paving the way for Republicans to implement a map that would eliminate one of the state’s two majority-Black districts.

Even though Alabama’s nominating contests are just a week away, Republican Gov. Kay Ivey signed a bill late last week allowing the state to retroactively cancel its House primaries and hold new ones should the courts free it to act. That’s essentially what happened on Monday.

As a result, Alabama will almost certainly move forward with a second set of primaries at an unspecified date later this year. The new map—which was actually one that Republicans passed in 2023 but were not allowed to use because it violated the Voting Rights Act—would target the 2nd District, which elected a Black Democrat, Rep. Shomari Figures, for the first time in 2024.

Instead, the new version would be home to a white majority and would have voted for Donald Trump by a 57-42 margin. The map would also place Figures’ hometown of Mobile in the 1st District, which would have backed Trump by an even wider 67-41 spread.

Opponents of the new map have argued, however, that an amendment to the Alabama Constitution that voters approved in a landslide in 2022 could bring the GOP’s plans to a halt.

That amendment specifies in plain terms that the legislature cannot pass laws “relating to the conduct of the general election” within six months of a general election. The cutoff, as the Alabama Reflector notes, was May 3, leading Democrats to pledge that legal challenges based on the amendment will be forthcoming.

Senate

MI-Sen

An obscure group is spending over $5 million on ads promoting Rep. Haley Stevens ahead of the Democratic primary for Senate, a contest that had seen no major outside involvement before now.

There’s no information yet on who is funding the Center for Democratic Priorities, but former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed was quick to suggest that AIPAC, whose affiliates have used the same media firm, is involved. Stevens, El-Sayed, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow are all facing off in the August primary for this open seat.

MT-Sen

A Republican group is trying to boost former Democratic state Rep. Reilly Neill in Montana’s Senate primary next month, likely because she’s expressed the greatest level of hostility to an independent bid by former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar.

For Bodnar to have a shot at flipping Montana’s open Senate seat, he’d need the eventual Democratic nominee to stand down after winning their party’s nomination—a strategy that former Sen. Jon Tester has urged Democrats to pursue.

But Neill, the most prominent Democrat running, has been openly hostile to the idea. After Bodnar launched his bid, she called him a “shill” who “hasn’t done shit” and said, “I won’t let this guy bully me out of the race.”

Republicans would undoubtedly prefer that Neill secure the nomination and thwart Bodnar’s hopes.

That’s why, as Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin flags, an outfit called More Jobs, Less Government is sending out mailers calling Neill “too liberal for Montana”—a message masquerading as an attack that’s actually designed to make primary voters warm to her. (According to FEC filings, the group has spent about $37,000 so far.)

At the same time, though, a little-known and underfunded Democrat, Air Force veteran Alani Bankhead, has been the beneficiary of nearly $300,000 in advertising on the part of a new group called Progressive Vet PAC. The PAC’s messaging is very standard, touting Bankhead’s military background and praising her for “fighting for democracy.”

Bankhead has also expressed opposition to Bodnar, telling The Atlantic’s Michael Scherer last month, “There is clearly manipulation trying to happen there.” Both she and Neill “have sworn to run hard against Bodnar if they win the nomination,” Scherer reported.

But Rubashkin notes that the treasurer for Progressive Vet PAC is Moffie Funk, a Democratic state representative who co-chaired “Women for Tester” in 2018. Neither Bankhead nor Progressive Vet appear to have commented about the PAC’s spending.

House

CA-22

Republicans are now meddling in half a dozen ongoing primaries with the addition of the race in California’s 22nd District, where the Congressional Leadership Fund is seeking to elevate outspoken progressive Randy Villegas over the candidate preferred by the DCCC, Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains.

Mailers from CLF, first flagged by Semafor’s Dave Weigel, trot out a familiar message, calling “simply too liberal” and noting that he has Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ endorsement. CLF, the top Republican super PAC involved in House races, has reported spending almost $60,000 so far.

Another group, however, is attacking Villegas with the aim of actually thwarting his campaign. Democratic Majority for Israel is spending $500,000 on TV ads charging that Villegas helped conceal settlements with sexual abuse victims in his capacity as a school board trustee in the city of Visalia.

The spot relies on a Los Angeles Times report published in December exposing the practice of requiring abuse victims to sign non-disclosure agreements that protect the identity of alleged perpetrators.

The article did not mention Villegas but led with one such story from the Visalia school district, which had approved five secret settlements in the previous three years. Villegas has served on the board since December of 2021. He does not appear to have directly responded to the ad.

So far, Villegas has received about $850,000 in outside support from a variety of groups, chief among them Leaders We Deserve, the PAC founded by gun safety activist David Hogg. Bains, meanwhile, has gotten more than $500,000 in third-party help, with most of that coming from 314 Action Fund, which supports candidates with science backgrounds. (Bains is a physician.)

The two are vying to take on Republican Rep. David Valadao in next month’s top-two primary.

FL-09

Republican businessman Thomas Chalifoux, who’d been seeking a rematch after badly losing to Democratic Rep. Darren Soto last cycle, has confirmed he’s continuing his campaign after Gov. Ron DeSantis’ new map made Florida’s 9th District much redder.

In 2024, Chalifoux put $2.5 million of his own money into his campaign but lost to Soto 55-42. But even before the new boundaries took effect, Chalifoux had already self-funded another $2.3 million for his second campaign, and could potentially put in more.

Several other Republicans, though, are looking at the race. Soto has also said he’ll run again despite the GOP dismantling his predominantly Latino district, which had previously been protected by the Voting Rights Act until the Supreme Court gutted the law late last month.

PA-01

Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro has endorsed Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie’s bid to take on Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania’s 1st District, following an effort by Republicans to meddle in next month’s Democratic primary.

A GOP committee heavily funded by Fitzpatrick’s campaign started sending out mailers attacking Harvie by claiming he “calls himself a king”—a message designed to turn off Democratic voters. The effort is likely aimed at boosting Harvie’s underfunded Democratic rival, mathematician Lucia Simonelli.

PA-03

A coalition of progressive organizations is spending more than $1 million to help state Rep. Chris Rabb in next week’s three-way Democratic primary for Pennsylvania’s open and safely blue 3rd District.

The outlay from these groups, which include the Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, comes several months after Rabb’s campaign appeared to be in dire shape. In February, Rabb revealed that his former treasurer stole an undisclosed sum from his campaign, a huge setback given that he’d already been struggling to raise money.

Rabb, though, has had more to smile about since then. He outraised both of his intraparty rivals, pediatric surgeon Ala Stanford and state Sen. Sharif Street, during the first quarter of the year, and new FEC reports show he took in more money than his two rivals combined between April 1 to April 29.

But Stanford, who has the support of retiring Rep. Dwight Evans, has enjoyed extensive support from 314 Action. The group, which backs candidates with STEM backgrounds, has spent around $3.5 million since March to boost Stanford.

Street, by contrast, has yet to benefit from any significant third-party help. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that a group funded by Philadelphia’s building trades’ unions has been sending out mailers to help Street, a former state party chair, but it has yet to take to the airwaves.

Axios’ Holly Otterbein separately writes that Gov. Josh Shapiro is discouraging the union from taking any action that might inadvertently help Rabb, whom the governor has repeatedly come into conflict with. While Shapiro has not backed a candidate, Otterbein reports that he’s discouraging Street’s backers from attacking Stanford.

TN-05

Former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher says he’s continuing his campaign to oust scandal-plagued Republican Rep. Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s August primary, even though the GOP’s new map moved his home outside of the district.

“I’m all in for Tennessee’s 5th District, and I’m going to win,” Hatcher said on social media. “I know these communities and I know what’s at stake.”

As part of their effort to dismantle the state’s lone majority-Black congressional district in Memphis, Republicans also did several favors for the Ogles, who is vulnerable both in the primary and general elections. Not only did they make his already-red district redder, they moved the homes of Hatcher and Ogles’ top two Democratic rivals into other constituencies.

Members of Congress don’t have to live in the districts they represent, but Hatcher has heavily emphasized his local roots in his campaign. On his website, he describes himself as “a fifth-generation Tennessee dairy farmer living on the land his family’s been working for over 200 years. In a 2024 interview, he bumped that up even further, calling himself “a tenth-generation farmer.”

The two leading Democrats in the race, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder and Nashville Metro Councilor Mike Cortese, have also both said they’ll forge ahead with their bids.

TX-09

State Rep. Briscoe Cain has received an endorsement from former U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman, who earned third place in the March Republican primary, ahead of the May 26 runoff for Texas’ newly gerrymandered 9th District.

Army veteran Alex Mealer, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, finished first with 37% in the first round of voting for this Houston-area constituency, but that was well below the majority she needed to win outright. Cain, who has Gov. Greg Abbott in his corner, outpaced Stockman, a twice-over ex-congressman and convicted criminal, 31-17 for the second runoff spot.

Trump would have carried the overhauled version of the 9th by a 59-40 spread.

Attorneys General

OH-AG

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine on Monday appointed state Department of Public Safety Director Andy Wilson to replace Attorney General Dave Yost, a fellow Republican who announced his resignation last week.

DeWine opted to pick Wilson, who is not seeking office, over state Auditor Keith Faber, who won the GOP primary for attorney general last week. If DeWine had gone with Faber, one of the three termed-out statewide Republicans seeking another post, he could have set off a domino effect impacting several more contests.

Ballot Measures

CA Ballot

A Democratic consultant has launched an effort to repeal California’s top-two primary system in 2028 and return to the traditional party primary system used in nearly every other state. If the plan makes the ballot and is approved by voters two years from now, the state would once again hold party primaries in 2030.

The drive to end the top-two primary, which voters approved in 2010, comes as Democrats have spent months fretting that two Republicans could advance out of the June 2 top-two primary and automatically flip this solidly blue state’s governorship.

“The fear of having to vote for Steve Hilton or Chad Bianco sent a shiver up my spine,” Steven Maviglio, who is behind the new campaign, tells the New York Times.

Obituaries

Bill Posey

Former Rep. Bill Posey, a Florida Republican who essentially handed off his House seat to Mike Haridopolos in 2024 when he unexpectedly announced his retirement and endorsement shortly after candidate filing closed, died Saturday at the age of 78.

Posey, as The Downballot wrote two years ago, made national news early in his first term in 2009 when he introduced a bill to require presidential candidates to submit a copy of their birth certificate—a proposal he insisted wasn’t targeted at President Barack Obama.

Posey returned to relative obscurity until 2024, when he ensured that Haridopolos—and only Haridopolos—had advance knowledge that he wouldn’t seek a ninth term. The two did not deny colluding, and Haridopolos, as intended, easily won both the primary and general elections.

Poll Pile

• LA-Sen (R): Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for the Accountability Project (pro-Julia Letlow):

  • Julia Letlow: 32, Bill Cassidy (inc): 26, John Fleming: 21, Mark Spencer: 1.

  • March: Letlow: 27, Cassidy: 26, Fleming: 19, Spencer: 1.

• NE-Sen: Tavern Research for Contours Inc.:

  • Dan Osborn (I): 47, Pete Ricketts (R-inc): 42.

  • Ricketts (R-inc): 48, Cindy Burbank (D): 39.

  • Ricketts (R-inc): 50, Bill Forbes (D): 34.

  • Contours Inc. is an organization that says it “supports compelling representation throughout the United States” through an initiative called the Independents Project.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Mellman Group for California Back to Basics (pro-Matt Mahan):

  • Xavier Becerra (D): 20, Steve Hilton (R): 20, Chad Bianco (R): 14, Tom Steyer (D): 12, Matt Mahan (D): 10, Katie Porter (D): 9, other candidates single-digit support.

• CA-Gov (top-two): Kreate Strategies:

  • Hilton (R): 22, Becerra (D): 20, Steyer (D): 14, Bianco (R): 13, Porter (D): 9, Mahan (D): 9, other candidates 1% or less.

  • Mid-April: Hilton (R): 18, Steyer (D): 16, Bianco (R): 14, Becerra (D): 10, Porter (D): 8, Mahan (D): 4.

  • Kreate says its polls were not done for a client.

• SC-Gov: co/efficient:

  • Pamela Evette: 21, Alan Wilson: 18, Ralph Norman: 13, Nancy Mace: 12, Rom Reddy: 11, Josh Kimbrell: 2.

  • March: Evette: 19, Mace: 18, Wilson: 15, Norman: 13, Reddy: 5, Kimbrell: 1.

  • Co/efficient says its polls were “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.”

• CA-06 (top-two): EMC Research for Voter Protection Project, Vote Mama, and the Congressional Black Caucus (pro-Lauren Babb Tomlinson):

  • Kevin Kiley (I-inc): 36, Richard Pan (D): 18, Thien Ho (D): 12, Lauren Babb Tomlinson (D): 11, Martha Guerrero (D): 9, Michael Stansfield (R): 8, Tyler Vandenberg (D): 2.

• CA-11 (top-two): Sextant Strategies & Research for the San Francisco Chronicle:

  • Scott Wiener (D): 40, Saikat Chakrabarti (D): 18, Connie Chan (D): 17, Marie Hurabiell (D): 5.

• CA-11 (top-two): EMC for Families for an Affordable SF (pro-Wiener):

  • Wiener (D): 38, Chan (D): 22, Chakrabarti (D): 21.

• CA-40 (top-two): Tulchin Research for Esther Kim Varet:

  • Ken Calvert (R-inc): 24, Young Kim (R-inc): 22, Esther Kim Varet (D): 20, Lisa Ramirez (D): 6, Joe Kerr (D): 4, other candidates 1% or less.

  • Unreleased Jan. poll: Calvert (R-inc): 25, Kim (R-inc): 21, Ramirez (D): 13, Kim Varet (D): 9, Kerr (D): 7.

• CA-48 (top-two): Tulchin Research for unidentified pro-Marni von Wilpert group:

  • Jim Desmond (R): 27, Marni von Wilpert (D): 16, Ammar Campa-Najjar (D): 13, Kevin Patrick O’Neil (R): 9, Brandon Riker (D): 8, other: 7, undecided: 20.

• ME-02: co/efficient for the NRCC:

  • Paul LePage (R): 50, Joe Baldacci (D): 40.

  • LePage (R): 50, Matt Dunlap (D): 40.

  • The release did not include numbers testing Jordan Wood, the third major Democrat in the race.

• MI-07 (D): Data for Progress for William Lawrence:

  • William Lawrence: 20, Bridget Brink: 14, Matt Maasdam: 10.

• NC-01: co/efficient for the NRCC:

  • Don Davis (D-inc): 41, Laurie Buckhout (R): 41.

• NJ-12 (D): Workbench Strategy for Adam Hamawy:

  • Adam Hamawy: 19, Sue Altman: 12, Brad Cohen: 11, Verlina Reynolds-Jackson: 10, other candidates single-digit support.

  • Unreleased early April poll: Reynolds-Jackson: 16, Altman: 12, Cohen: 11, Hamawy: 5.

• NM-02: co/efficient for the NRCC:

  • Gabe Vasquez (D-inc): 43, Greg Cunningham (R): 41.

• NY-10 (D): Schoen Cooperman Research for New Yorkers Fighting Back (pro-Dan Goldman):

  • Brad Lander: 47, Dan Goldman (inc): 42, Nickie Kane: 3.

• TX-34: co/efficient for the NRCC:

  • Eric Flores (R): 41, Vicente Gonzalez (D-inc): 40.

• WA-03: co/efficient for the NRCC:

  • John Braun (R): 41, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc): 34.