Let's please use "dummymander" precisely. No, there is no dummymander potential in TN. There is a (slim, I believe) possibility that there will be a big enough wave to defeat the gerrymander this year.
We have better than a slim chance of flipping the House. Voters are fed up and when you have Republicans pulling outrageous and wildly unconstitutional shit like they're doing in LA, TN, AL and FL, they will crawl over broken glass to vote them out.
This is a midterm, some Republicans can (and will) sit this out. And if GOP polling couldn't predict two state FL legislative seats flipping in R-favorable districts, Rs are going to have a really bad night on 11/3/26.
Why did you think I was suggesting there is only a slim chance to flip the House? That aside, historically, voters don't care enough about gerrymanders for them to affect their votes. This year might be different, but I think what will be driving votes is not "inside baseball" stuff like that but rising prices, rising unemployment and other things that they can see directly affect them and their families.
Is there? Even Bredesen only won one of the districts in 2018. Unless if we’re within 10 points of flipping Tennessee statewide I doubt we’d win more than 1 House seat at most.
Yeah. People are looking for silver linings but gerrymanders are getting way more effective than the maps of 10-20 years ago. Effectively these maps don't crack unless we're actually close to winning statewide. It's a Trump +30 state, just a brutal margin to overcome even if nationally it's a D+13 tidal wave and we're flipping 30 house seats and 7 senators. The steadfast belief some have in the risk of "dummymanders" to constrain GOP maps is unhelpful, we should recognize how badly these maps are eroding democracy and eliminating the voice of black voters in existing compact seats. The only answer is federal reform once we retake power.
Do you think even in a scenario where we enacted federal reform that it would be Supreme Court-proof though? As partisan as this Court is, I struggle to see how the Court wouldn't put their thumb on the scale ahead of official reapportionment.
It's bleak. The Rucho decision held that partisan gerrymandering is non-justiciable under current law, but seemed to invite Congress to actually set standards. Should Congress do so, its a legitimate worry the court will then hold any such standards cannot be enforced (like what is about to happen with Florida's supreme court). Hate to say it but court reform might be an unavoidable part of unwinding this madness.
Its not justicible under the 14th Amendment. But Congress does have the authority to regulate House elections (and to limit SCOTUS authority to even review such a law)
They would have to enforce their power through impeachment of justices and their removal from office if they overturn Congressional action, and that's not happening. Enlarging the court would be easier, though still difficult.
It would be a good time to work on petition drives to enact Non Partisan Independent Redistricting Drives in every State that allows citizen petitions. Put them on the ballots in 2028. The Supreme Court can't touch them and neither can Appeals Courts. Neither can State Legislatures. That along with Court Reforms at SCOTUS would solve the gerrymandering problem in the vast majority of States for good. Just like it did for the abortion issue. As I pointed out yesterday or the day before, Petition drive volunteers just have to remind voters that the opposite party will gerrymander too if given the chance. Voters in vast numbers of both parties rushed to put their signatures on the petition then overwhelmingly approved it in the election,here in Michigan. And it worked. After 40 years of Republicans controlling the Michigan Legislature, Control flipped marginally to Democrats. It also seems to have had some effect on the Mi. Republican Party, because marginally their candidates are slightly less MAGA and slightly more moderate where they have won. With Districts split 50/50 by party voting records, both parties have to appeal to the middle Independents.
News from the North: in a brazen attempt to influence the composition of the House of Commons, a man going by the alias of "Goldenhawk" filled out his 2026 Census form by indicating he had 100,000 people living in both his attic and his basement. The new ridings of Upper and Lower Goldenhawk are both expected to swing Liberal based on the actual number of voters (2, maybe 3 if his son has turned 18 by then.)
Democrats in Virginia need to wake up and lower the age for retiring judges to 70 or 65.I am urging donors, both large and small to boycott Virginia Democrats for their cowardliness in responding to the GOP dominated Virginia Supreme court. The Dems have been shown a way to respond and so far have not endangering democracy in light of the southern states power grab against Black and Brown congressional and legislator districts. There are other Dems across this nation that need our support!!! No donor money for Virginia Dems!!!!
That seems like a weird way to do this. If we think we should ignore the court, just do it and ignore them, don’t do weird procedural stuff around the edges like this.
Despite what many commentators have claimed, there's no real way to just "ignore" the court—at least, not in a way that would redound to Dems' benefit. Quinn and I discussed it at length in our livestream on Saturday: https://www.the-downballot.com/p/how-virginia-democrats-can-retire
Why should we boycott VA Democrats? We should do everything in our power to help get the map back in place, and it doesn’t have to be for this cycle. They eventually came around on joining the redistricing fight in the first place so if we apply pressure we can do it there too.
I agree 54 might have been a bridge too far but 70 could work.
A 15-point win nationwide would be the largest margin for either party since 1974. I have to imagine that would be enough for some of the gerrymanders in places like Texas and Florida to break.
If we win the generic ballot by 15, I think we’re looking at flipping the governorships in Alaska, Nevada, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and New Hampshire, flipping at least 10-12 Senate seats (Alaska, Montana, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Maine, and potentially Mississippi and South Carolina), and gaining 60+ House seats as gerrymanders break.
Sure, and that could be good or bad for us. If we’re at +15 because of a disproportionate rural white backlash to Trump for example, that could put a lot of Midwestern and mountain west seats on the map that otherwise wouldn’t be. If it’s because Black turnout exceeds white turnout, we could potentially flip some southern Senate seats we’d otherwise have no chance in. If it’s because of the Hispanic vote being bluer than it was in 2016, we could get a trifecta in Texas.
Don't forget really angry farmers who are now paying an arm and a leg for what fertilizer they can get. Deasel prices through the roof for farm tractors and trucks. Not to mention the markets Trump destroyed. I passed the farm action place the other day, and there were at least just 15 pickup trucks sitting waiting for auction. And farm implements up the wazoo! I have been passing the same auction place for 20 years or more. I have never seen such a sight by a long shot. The pickups way out numbered the sheep on site.
No, there won't. But it's a good tool for back of the envelope estimates. As long as we understand it's not a perfect match to reality it's good enough for this level of prediction.
Once you get to a 15-point margin, a lot of gerrymanders invariably fail, or are at least at serious risk of failing, even if they're not really dummymanders.
TX-35: It could be a coincidence, but The New York Times published an opinion calling Maureen Galindo an "antisemitic sex therapist" seemingly after The Downballot did.
Not enough of them would, it would be like the Maine gubernatorial race in 2010 (though given what happened to Eliot Cutler, it’s a good thing that he lost).
None of that makes sense to me - how does gerrymandering weight a generic ballot poll, and why would weighting the poll cause the generic ballot results to look like this but not impact Trump’s approval rating in the poll?
I don't know CNN's formula for getting to D+3, but I'm positive that's an outlier. Like the recent batch of elections show a much bigger disapproval gap than predicted, like Spanberger and Sherrill's blowout gubernatorial wins last year.
Probably. There's a real chance that 2004 poll weighting will greatly undersell the magnitude of the tide on election night. Or not....I've given up trying to figure out polling trends.
I feel its important to note that the Democratic Party is not viewed positively by the middle or far left, and is hated by the right, and only looks decent when compared to Trump.
The most improtant thing is the GOP at 42%, similar to the AtlasIntel poll (40%) and most of the others. It just seems like CNN didn't push their undecideds much and/or most of the undecideds this year will lean Dem.
Gloria Johnson, one of the other Tennessee Three, had a statewide campaign for Senate that failed terribly. But she ran. Maybe 2028 is Justin Jones's cycle to run?
Johnson’s election results against Senator Blackburn back in 2024 though weren’t too far off from what Marquita Bradshaw got as a Democratic challenger to Senator Hagerty back in 2020.
Unless there’s specific things Johnson did in her campaign that were unsuccessful?
She narrowly underperformed Kamala Harris, even though statewide elections allow candidates of the opposite party a better chance to compete than presidential races.
May have been her visibility and how low on the radar the Senate race was at the time. If Johnson performed slightly below Harris, that’s a problem.
I’m annoyed when we have the TN-07 special election which gets more attention in the news but previously in 2020 and 2024 the Senate races in the state didn’t receive much coverage. Hopefully from the special election Democrats can improve on their margins and win more elections.
What's being done or can be done to counteract and prevent the potential DOJ national voter purge? At the very least, its good to see that Democrats control the secretary of state office in many states, including crucial swing states like Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
I'm just worried since places like Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas where Democrats have crucial statewide and house races. Surely we can do more than just raise awareness and hope that a voter purge doesn't sabotage those elections.
Unfortunately, the NC Secretary of State office is not in charge of voter rolls. The state auditor, who was illegally given that power via a GOP power grab, is overseeing our State Board of Elections (and our voter rolls). That power originally belonged to the governor via our state constitution (which GOP legislators and judges are ignoring).
That's a damn shame. Hopefully there's actual ways to mitigate and circumvent this corruption. I know there's been major lawsuits that have been filed and at the very least, federal courts have been generally ruling against such nonsense, even the Trump appointed judges.
This is mostly a battle on the legal front, though obviously the more elections Dems win for gov, SoS, etc. in November, the better they'll be able to resist this. We discussed it with counsel for Common Cause on a recent podcast: https://www.the-downballot.com/p/good-riddance-to-eric-swalwell
Michigan, which has Congressional, Senate and Governor up for grabs, has the SOS currently involved in a lawsuit to stop the Administration from seizing our voter rolls and other information the Feds.are demanding. Our Dem. Attorney General is handling the case.
AL-1, AL-2: Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, a leading candidate for the open 1st district, will instead run in the 2nd, now that a new map has supposedly been installed.
The primary election is in a week. I'm unsure as to what major Democrats could run in the 2nd district, or what map they could run in at all. Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures represents the current iteration of the 2nd, but under a potential remap, he could live in the 1st.
Major Republican candidates in the currently open 1st district include former Rep. Jerry Carl, Green Beret veteran Josh McKee and businessman Austin Sidwell.
It depends on which district has a higher Black population and is more competitive for Democrats. Figures's base of support is in Mobile, where his parents have long been in local politics. Mobile was the base of the 1st district dating back to 1845 until the 2024 redraw, and is where Carl is also from.
Marques and Rep. Barry Moore, on the other end, hail from Enterprise, a small town usually located in the 2nd district until again, 2024.
I counted it up recently, and I'm sure there's some irregularities, but only 36 members appear to live outside of their district. It would be unorthodox for Figures to run in a seat he's not familiar with.
Figures won the district by 10 while Harris won it by 8. The AA population was just under 50%. In this year’s version, the AA population is about 10 points lower and Trump would have won it by 14.
So Figures probably loses re-election (if he runs) by 5-8 points, overperforming both Trump's 2024 results and other statewide candidates like Kyle Sweetser.
Love this, and thank you for your work. My only thought (which may be stupid) is: Is there a way to limit the discussion to downballot races, a la SSP and DKE, so discussion isn't swallowed up by talk about Trump?
NJ-07: Tom Kean Jr. said he'd be back "very soon" after vanishing for more than a month. It's been a few weeks since he said that, and he still isn't back. He'll still return soon though, just trust him.
I wonder if the issue is more serious than we think. If so, some clarity would be nice. We don't need another David Scott rolling up to the Secretary of State's office to file only to die 2 months later.
At first I thought the hush hush nature indicated that it could be a hospitalization for depression. But I don’t think that would have lasted this long.
He has to be a Labour MP to stand for the leadership election, last time he tried the Labour National Executive Committee (Led by Starmer) blocked him from running in a by-election, and there’s nothing indicating he won’t block him again.
My British Cousin informs me that Andy Burnham would be ideal, but he can't because Starmer blocked his candidacy for Parliament in elections a few months ago, fearing his rivalry for the PM. You have to be a member of Parliament to be eligible. Now Labor has really no good options to Replace Starmer. If Starmer quits, Reform will take over on the strength of their really big wins in the local Council elections last week. She is a bit beside herself, because that means Farage would be P.M. Labor can't afford to shed Starmer or hold Elections for Parliament.
The FL Supreme Court will uphold the new maps. I doubt they'll uphold that state constitutional amendment, they'll pretzel themselves into saying "this doesn't violate it".
I would be genuinely shocked if they struck down the new maps.
Forced to guess, I'd expect them to say something like "it is impossible to judicially evaluate a gerrymander" and rule that the amendment stands but they have no way to measure it and thus it is unenforceable.
It's bullshit, but it's not out of hand for conservative jurisprudence.
The Missouri Supreme Court is considering three challenges to the map. Two similar lawsuits argue that some of the congressional districts don’t follow the state constitution’s requirements that districts be as compact as possible.
A third lawsuit argues that the map shouldn’t be in effect for the 2026 election because opponents in December submitted more than 305,000 signatures seeking to force a statewide referendum vote on the lines. In the past, state officials have paused the implementation of measures subject to a referendum until a vote is held, but in this instance they say the new lines are active.
During Tuesday’s oral arguments, the judges sat almost entirely stone-faced as they listened. Only one judge asked a single question during arguments that stretched for more than an hour, offering no sense of how the court would rule.
They have real reason to be concerned about unpacking Clyburns district. The Senate Maj Leader (Massey?) said the quiet part out loud. They know that the 6 R districts with heavy R majorities are effective voter suppression tactics. If they mix it up, people might come out to vote. When they added the 7th district, Tom Rice almost lost to a D (Tinabu). It's been solid R since, now repped by sock puppet Russell Fry.
Agree with you 100%. SC is only 58-42 statewide, which is the exact number for an ideal gerrymander. As seen in some of the potential maps circulating the internet, getting every single seat to match that spread while satisfying the incumbents' demands is very difficult to achieve in practice, as some districts were estimated to be redder while others were bluer (down to R+10?).
Looking at that TN congressional map Rs pushed through, there’s definite dummymander potential if Democrats show up in Memphis and Nashville.
We can dream
If TN Rs think they can get 2024 numbers this year, they are dreaming.
Let's please use "dummymander" precisely. No, there is no dummymander potential in TN. There is a (slim, I believe) possibility that there will be a big enough wave to defeat the gerrymander this year.
We have better than a slim chance of flipping the House. Voters are fed up and when you have Republicans pulling outrageous and wildly unconstitutional shit like they're doing in LA, TN, AL and FL, they will crawl over broken glass to vote them out.
This is a midterm, some Republicans can (and will) sit this out. And if GOP polling couldn't predict two state FL legislative seats flipping in R-favorable districts, Rs are going to have a really bad night on 11/3/26.
Why did you think I was suggesting there is only a slim chance to flip the House? That aside, historically, voters don't care enough about gerrymanders for them to affect their votes. This year might be different, but I think what will be driving votes is not "inside baseball" stuff like that but rising prices, rising unemployment and other things that they can see directly affect them and their families.
That's what I'm counting on. If there was an opportunity for 2026 to be 2010 in reverse, this is it.
Agreed, but that has nothing to do with whether the terrible gerrymanders in TN would be effective in other than a Democratic tsunami year.
The bluest seats on here are only marginally redder than the old Ogles seat, so if there was a chance then there may be one now.
"There's a chance to defeat the gerrymander this year" is not a counterpoint to my remark.
Is there? Even Bredesen only won one of the districts in 2018. Unless if we’re within 10 points of flipping Tennessee statewide I doubt we’d win more than 1 House seat at most.
Yeah. People are looking for silver linings but gerrymanders are getting way more effective than the maps of 10-20 years ago. Effectively these maps don't crack unless we're actually close to winning statewide. It's a Trump +30 state, just a brutal margin to overcome even if nationally it's a D+13 tidal wave and we're flipping 30 house seats and 7 senators. The steadfast belief some have in the risk of "dummymanders" to constrain GOP maps is unhelpful, we should recognize how badly these maps are eroding democracy and eliminating the voice of black voters in existing compact seats. The only answer is federal reform once we retake power.
Do you think even in a scenario where we enacted federal reform that it would be Supreme Court-proof though? As partisan as this Court is, I struggle to see how the Court wouldn't put their thumb on the scale ahead of official reapportionment.
It's bleak. The Rucho decision held that partisan gerrymandering is non-justiciable under current law, but seemed to invite Congress to actually set standards. Should Congress do so, its a legitimate worry the court will then hold any such standards cannot be enforced (like what is about to happen with Florida's supreme court). Hate to say it but court reform might be an unavoidable part of unwinding this madness.
Its not justicible under the 14th Amendment. But Congress does have the authority to regulate House elections (and to limit SCOTUS authority to even review such a law)
They would have to enforce their power through impeachment of justices and their removal from office if they overturn Congressional action, and that's not happening. Enlarging the court would be easier, though still difficult.
It would be a good time to work on petition drives to enact Non Partisan Independent Redistricting Drives in every State that allows citizen petitions. Put them on the ballots in 2028. The Supreme Court can't touch them and neither can Appeals Courts. Neither can State Legislatures. That along with Court Reforms at SCOTUS would solve the gerrymandering problem in the vast majority of States for good. Just like it did for the abortion issue. As I pointed out yesterday or the day before, Petition drive volunteers just have to remind voters that the opposite party will gerrymander too if given the chance. Voters in vast numbers of both parties rushed to put their signatures on the petition then overwhelmingly approved it in the election,here in Michigan. And it worked. After 40 years of Republicans controlling the Michigan Legislature, Control flipped marginally to Democrats. It also seems to have had some effect on the Mi. Republican Party, because marginally their candidates are slightly less MAGA and slightly more moderate where they have won. With Districts split 50/50 by party voting records, both parties have to appeal to the middle Independents.
Hard to see how even a victory wouldn't be a two-year rental with those margins....unless some of Nashville's suburbs start realigning.
News from the North: in a brazen attempt to influence the composition of the House of Commons, a man going by the alias of "Goldenhawk" filled out his 2026 Census form by indicating he had 100,000 people living in both his attic and his basement. The new ridings of Upper and Lower Goldenhawk are both expected to swing Liberal based on the actual number of voters (2, maybe 3 if his son has turned 18 by then.)
That sounds like a gag. Is it a crime?
No, they are all white so it's fine.
It is the Great White North after all...
It is interesting that they do a census in the middle of a decade. Is it decennial or on another schedule?
Every five years
Dunno what to think of this...
It's a joke. Gallows humour based on recent events.
Are their controversies/concerns about overcounting?
Not really, if anything the efforts to make sure everyone is counted are far more robust.
Democrats in Virginia need to wake up and lower the age for retiring judges to 70 or 65.I am urging donors, both large and small to boycott Virginia Democrats for their cowardliness in responding to the GOP dominated Virginia Supreme court. The Dems have been shown a way to respond and so far have not endangering democracy in light of the southern states power grab against Black and Brown congressional and legislator districts. There are other Dems across this nation that need our support!!! No donor money for Virginia Dems!!!!
That seems like a weird way to do this. If we think we should ignore the court, just do it and ignore them, don’t do weird procedural stuff around the edges like this.
Despite what many commentators have claimed, there's no real way to just "ignore" the court—at least, not in a way that would redound to Dems' benefit. Quinn and I discussed it at length in our livestream on Saturday: https://www.the-downballot.com/p/how-virginia-democrats-can-retire
I also agree there are more effective ways to change the court’s composition.
Why should we boycott VA Democrats? We should do everything in our power to help get the map back in place, and it doesn’t have to be for this cycle. They eventually came around on joining the redistricing fight in the first place so if we apply pressure we can do it there too.
I agree 54 might have been a bridge too far but 70 could work.
FWIW, Atlas Intel GCB:
Dems 55-40
https://cdn.atlasintel.org/faa7f7df-daae-44ca-801b-f25a339d99dc.pdf?_gl=1*5fe733*_ga*ODgwMDMwNTA0LjE3Nzg1ODYzNzE.*_ga_W78QD5CNP1*czE3Nzg1ODYzNzEkbzEkZzAkdDE3Nzg1ODYzNzMkajU4JGwwJGgw
Some bonkers crosstabs in there.
A 15-point win nationwide would be the largest margin for either party since 1974. I have to imagine that would be enough for some of the gerrymanders in places like Texas and Florida to break.
A 15-point win would overcome some of the gerrymanders in TN as well.
Josh Stein won 12 house seats in NC with similar numbers.
R-held seats?
Yes. All but the 3rd and the 8th.
A similar wave would definitely reduce the GOP majority in the state House. Wonder how many state Senate seats would be flipped in that wave.
Lol it's not going to be 15, but what would we win if it was 15?
If we win the generic ballot by 15, I think we’re looking at flipping the governorships in Alaska, Nevada, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and New Hampshire, flipping at least 10-12 Senate seats (Alaska, Montana, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Maine, and potentially Mississippi and South Carolina), and gaining 60+ House seats as gerrymanders break.
There probably wouldn't be uniform swing, though.
Sure, and that could be good or bad for us. If we’re at +15 because of a disproportionate rural white backlash to Trump for example, that could put a lot of Midwestern and mountain west seats on the map that otherwise wouldn’t be. If it’s because Black turnout exceeds white turnout, we could potentially flip some southern Senate seats we’d otherwise have no chance in. If it’s because of the Hispanic vote being bluer than it was in 2016, we could get a trifecta in Texas.
Don't forget really angry farmers who are now paying an arm and a leg for what fertilizer they can get. Deasel prices through the roof for farm tractors and trucks. Not to mention the markets Trump destroyed. I passed the farm action place the other day, and there were at least just 15 pickup trucks sitting waiting for auction. And farm implements up the wazoo! I have been passing the same auction place for 20 years or more. I have never seen such a sight by a long shot. The pickups way out numbered the sheep on site.
No, there won't. But it's a good tool for back of the envelope estimates. As long as we understand it's not a perfect match to reality it's good enough for this level of prediction.
Once you get to a 15-point margin, a lot of gerrymanders invariably fail, or are at least at serious risk of failing, even if they're not really dummymanders.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/11/opinion/maureen-galindo-antisemitic-conspiracies.html
TX-35: It could be a coincidence, but The New York Times published an opinion calling Maureen Galindo an "antisemitic sex therapist" seemingly after The Downballot did.
The poll showing a 5-point lead for Osborne with him at 47% is tremendously exciting! I hope there really is a possibility that he can win.
Burbank needs to win that nomination tonight. I have no doubt that she won't, as Democrats should know better, but still.
What about the voters in the general election? They might pretty much ignore the Democratic nominee.
Not enough of them would, it would be like the Maine gubernatorial race in 2010 (though given what happened to Eliot Cutler, it’s a good thing that he lost).
Yep. Dodged a bullet with that creep.
I've been more bullish on NE than OH or TX for a couple of months now. It'll have to be a perfect storm though.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/12/politics/cnn-poll-midterms-affordability-politics-impact
CNN has us only up 3 on the generic ballot, 45-42. Trump’s approval is at 35%, so it’s weird to see our generic number doing so badly.
CNN is obviously weighing it more to Republicans thanks to all the rampant gerrymandering blessed by the MAGA SCOTUS.
Everyone else has it at D+10 or more.
None of that makes sense to me - how does gerrymandering weight a generic ballot poll, and why would weighting the poll cause the generic ballot results to look like this but not impact Trump’s approval rating in the poll?
I don't know CNN's formula for getting to D+3, but I'm positive that's an outlier. Like the recent batch of elections show a much bigger disapproval gap than predicted, like Spanberger and Sherrill's blowout gubernatorial wins last year.
a lot of pollsters are weighting to 2024 - is CNN doing the same?
Probably. There's a real chance that 2004 poll weighting will greatly undersell the magnitude of the tide on election night. Or not....I've given up trying to figure out polling trends.
I feel its important to note that the Democratic Party is not viewed positively by the middle or far left, and is hated by the right, and only looks decent when compared to Trump.
The most improtant thing is the GOP at 42%, similar to the AtlasIntel poll (40%) and most of the others. It just seems like CNN didn't push their undecideds much and/or most of the undecideds this year will lean Dem.
https://x.com/Justinjpearson/status/2054200925221179590?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
TN-9: Democratic state Rep. Justin J. Pearson will still run here, regardless of the map.
Good. Even if he loses, he should run out of spite.
Gloria Johnson, one of the other Tennessee Three, had a statewide campaign for Senate that failed terribly. But she ran. Maybe 2028 is Justin Jones's cycle to run?
Johnson’s election results against Senator Blackburn back in 2024 though weren’t too far off from what Marquita Bradshaw got as a Democratic challenger to Senator Hagerty back in 2020.
Unless there’s specific things Johnson did in her campaign that were unsuccessful?
She narrowly underperformed Kamala Harris, even though statewide elections allow candidates of the opposite party a better chance to compete than presidential races.
May have been her visibility and how low on the radar the Senate race was at the time. If Johnson performed slightly below Harris, that’s a problem.
I’m annoyed when we have the TN-07 special election which gets more attention in the news but previously in 2020 and 2024 the Senate races in the state didn’t receive much coverage. Hopefully from the special election Democrats can improve on their margins and win more elections.
Hagerty is up again this year and Bradshaw looks like she'll be the nominee again.
What's being done or can be done to counteract and prevent the potential DOJ national voter purge? At the very least, its good to see that Democrats control the secretary of state office in many states, including crucial swing states like Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
I'm just worried since places like Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas where Democrats have crucial statewide and house races. Surely we can do more than just raise awareness and hope that a voter purge doesn't sabotage those elections.
Unfortunately, the NC Secretary of State office is not in charge of voter rolls. The state auditor, who was illegally given that power via a GOP power grab, is overseeing our State Board of Elections (and our voter rolls). That power originally belonged to the governor via our state constitution (which GOP legislators and judges are ignoring).
That's a damn shame. Hopefully there's actual ways to mitigate and circumvent this corruption. I know there's been major lawsuits that have been filed and at the very least, federal courts have been generally ruling against such nonsense, even the Trump appointed judges.
Wisconsin also, the SoS doesn't control elections, was stripped in the 90s.
This is mostly a battle on the legal front, though obviously the more elections Dems win for gov, SoS, etc. in November, the better they'll be able to resist this. We discussed it with counsel for Common Cause on a recent podcast: https://www.the-downballot.com/p/good-riddance-to-eric-swalwell
Michigan, which has Congressional, Senate and Governor up for grabs, has the SOS currently involved in a lawsuit to stop the Administration from seizing our voter rolls and other information the Feds.are demanding. Our Dem. Attorney General is handling the case.
https://www.al.com/politics/2026/05/alabama-republican-now-in-different-congressional-race-days-before-election-after-supreme-court-bombshell.html
AL-1, AL-2: Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, a leading candidate for the open 1st district, will instead run in the 2nd, now that a new map has supposedly been installed.
The primary election is in a week. I'm unsure as to what major Democrats could run in the 2nd district, or what map they could run in at all. Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures represents the current iteration of the 2nd, but under a potential remap, he could live in the 1st.
Major Republican candidates in the currently open 1st district include former Rep. Jerry Carl, Green Beret veteran Josh McKee and businessman Austin Sidwell.
I suspect Rep. Figures would continue to run in the 2nd, even though he doesn't live in the district? That is legal.
It depends on which district has a higher Black population and is more competitive for Democrats. Figures's base of support is in Mobile, where his parents have long been in local politics. Mobile was the base of the 1st district dating back to 1845 until the 2024 redraw, and is where Carl is also from.
Marques and Rep. Barry Moore, on the other end, hail from Enterprise, a small town usually located in the 2nd district until again, 2024.
I counted it up recently, and I'm sure there's some irregularities, but only 36 members appear to live outside of their district. It would be unorthodox for Figures to run in a seat he's not familiar with.
Based on what was posted yesterday, 2 had a nearly 40% AA population. So I’m sure he’d run there.
Figures won the district by 10 while Harris won it by 8. The AA population was just under 50%. In this year’s version, the AA population is about 10 points lower and Trump would have won it by 14.
So Figures probably loses re-election (if he runs) by 5-8 points, overperforming both Trump's 2024 results and other statewide candidates like Kyle Sweetser.
The 2nd is marginally winnable for a Dem in an exceptional year, but even then, very unlikely. The 1st is beyond hopeless even in a 1936-style wave.
Maybe Figures will just retire, then.
Just wanted to note that we've published a "rules of the road" for The Downballot community. I ask everyone here to read and abide. Thank you! https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-community-rules-of
Love this!
Thank you for doing this!
Thanks!
Thank you what you do, providing us with a sane, civil corner of the political interwebs.
That's extremely kind of you. It always means a lot when someone acknowledges the work we put in.
Love this, and thank you for your work. My only thought (which may be stupid) is: Is there a way to limit the discussion to downballot races, a la SSP and DKE, so discussion isn't swallowed up by talk about Trump?
Thank you so much! I don't realistically think we can impose that without very heavy-handed moderation, I'm afraid.
Fair enough. And thanks again from KillaCity (at SSP)
NJ-07: Tom Kean Jr. said he'd be back "very soon" after vanishing for more than a month. It's been a few weeks since he said that, and he still isn't back. He'll still return soon though, just trust him.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-remain-absent-this-week-as-office-continues-to-insist-hell-be-back-soon/
I wonder if the issue is more serious than we think. If so, some clarity would be nice. We don't need another David Scott rolling up to the Secretary of State's office to file only to die 2 months later.
At first I thought the hush hush nature indicated that it could be a hospitalization for depression. But I don’t think that would have lasted this long.
It could.
Yeah, I thought maybe a substance abuse issue. But I guess we'll see
Tbqh, I don't care if it's a Republican.
Agreed, but I'd be surprised to see him go before his dad, who is now 91.
Smoke where there’s fire, sounds like Starmer might really be about to actually have to resign
Who could Labor pick to succeed him? Or will he just call an election instead of resigning?
He’s not calling an election. That’s one thing for sure.
Yeah def not. Not with polls where they are, Parliament good for another three years and a majority that big
Andy Burnham would be my guess, a lot of ambitious Labour pols might not want the job in present conditions
He has to be a Labour MP to stand for the leadership election, last time he tried the Labour National Executive Committee (Led by Starmer) blocked him from running in a by-election, and there’s nothing indicating he won’t block him again.
My British Cousin informs me that Andy Burnham would be ideal, but he can't because Starmer blocked his candidacy for Parliament in elections a few months ago, fearing his rivalry for the PM. You have to be a member of Parliament to be eligible. Now Labor has really no good options to Replace Starmer. If Starmer quits, Reform will take over on the strength of their really big wins in the local Council elections last week. She is a bit beside herself, because that means Farage would be P.M. Labor can't afford to shed Starmer or hold Elections for Parliament.
Can Labour change its eligibility rules?
Hopefully the next PM after Starmer won’t pull stupid shit like arresting Brits for what they say on social media.
Don’t give Nigel Farage and Co. more to work with.
https://www.aol.com/keir-starmer-claims-not-censoring-154735021.html
I must have missed something -- what's the context for him potentially resigning? Is it his general lack of popularity, or some specific scandal?
The party did terribly in the national local elections last Thursday
looks like all 3 FL partisan gerrymandering cases will be consolidated with Judge Hawkes this week
https://x.com/nlvwarren/status/2054271258817106111?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw
Hawkes is a DeSantis appointee and was briefly appointed by Trump to serve as an immigration judge, FWIW.
I expect him to rule in favor of the rigged maps; state anti-gerrymandering amendment be dammed.
It’ll be appealed whatever he decides.
The FL Supreme Court will uphold the new maps. I doubt they'll uphold that state constitutional amendment, they'll pretzel themselves into saying "this doesn't violate it".
I would be genuinely shocked if they struck down the new maps.
That’s going to be some pretzel. They might come up with their own Purcell and not rule on it till after the election.
Forced to guess, I'd expect them to say something like "it is impossible to judicially evaluate a gerrymander" and rule that the amendment stands but they have no way to measure it and thus it is unenforceable.
It's bullshit, but it's not out of hand for conservative jurisprudence.
Ugh that's so plausible.
The Missouri Supreme Court is considering three challenges to the map. Two similar lawsuits argue that some of the congressional districts don’t follow the state constitution’s requirements that districts be as compact as possible.
A third lawsuit argues that the map shouldn’t be in effect for the 2026 election because opponents in December submitted more than 305,000 signatures seeking to force a statewide referendum vote on the lines. In the past, state officials have paused the implementation of measures subject to a referendum until a vote is held, but in this instance they say the new lines are active.
During Tuesday’s oral arguments, the judges sat almost entirely stone-faced as they listened. Only one judge asked a single question during arguments that stretched for more than an hour, offering no sense of how the court would rule.
https://westvirginiawatch.com/2026/05/12/repub/are-they-going-to-roll-over-gerrymandering-fights-reach-state-high-courts/
I have argued multiple cases in the MO supreme court, and I know those judges well. If you want to DM me, I can give you my unfiltered opinions
They issued their opinion 6 hours after oral argument. That tells me enough.
Appears Jim Clyburn is safe for now. SC Senate refuses to consider it. https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/2054299293125632207?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
Seems like 5 Republicans voted with all Dems.
They have real reason to be concerned about unpacking Clyburns district. The Senate Maj Leader (Massey?) said the quiet part out loud. They know that the 6 R districts with heavy R majorities are effective voter suppression tactics. If they mix it up, people might come out to vote. When they added the 7th district, Tom Rice almost lost to a D (Tinabu). It's been solid R since, now repped by sock puppet Russell Fry.
Agree with you 100%. SC is only 58-42 statewide, which is the exact number for an ideal gerrymander. As seen in some of the potential maps circulating the internet, getting every single seat to match that spread while satisfying the incumbents' demands is very difficult to achieve in practice, as some districts were estimated to be redder while others were bluer (down to R+10?).
It is often more like 55-45 statewide.
Yes, if we have a compelling D candidate. (i.e. Not Joe Cunningham)