Let's please use "dummymander" precisely. No, there is no dummymander potential in TN. There is a (slim, I believe) possibility that there will be a big enough wave to defeat the gerrymander this year.
We have better than a slim chance of flipping the House. Voters are fed up and when you have Republicans pulling outrageous and wildly unconstitutional shit like they're doing in LA, TN, AL and FL, they will crawl over broken glass to vote them out.
This is a midterm, some Republicans can (and will) sit this out. And if GOP polling couldn't predict two state FL legislative seats flipping in R-favorable districts, Rs are going to have a really bad night on 11/3/26.
Is there? Even Bredesen only won one of the districts in 2018. Unless if we’re within 10 points of flipping Tennessee statewide I doubt we’d win more than 1 House seat at most.
News from the North: in a brazen attempt to influence the composition of the House of Commons, a man going by the alias of "Goldenhawk" filled out his 2026 Census form by indicating he had 100,000 people living in both his attic and his basement. The new ridings of Upper and Lower Goldenhawk are both expected to swing Liberal based on the actual number of voters (2, maybe 3 if his son has turned 18 by then.)
Democrats in Virginia need to wake up and lower the age for retiring judges to 70 or 65.I am urging donors, both large and small to boycott Virginia Democrats for their cowardliness in responding to the GOP dominated Virginia Supreme court. The Dems have been shown a way to respond and so far have not endangering democracy in light of the southern states power grab against Black and Brown congressional and legislator districts. There are other Dems across this nation that need our support!!! No donor money for Virginia Dems!!!!
That seems like a weird way to do this. If we think we should ignore the court, just do it and ignore them, don’t do weird procedural stuff around the edges like this.
A 15-point win nationwide would be the largest margin for either party since 1974. I have to imagine that would be enough for some of the gerrymanders in places like Texas and Florida to break.
TX-35: It could be a coincidence, but The New York Times published an opinion calling Maureen Galindo an "antisemitic sex therapist" seemingly after The Downballot did.
Not enough of them would, it would be like the Maine gubernatorial race in 2010 (though given what happened to Eliot Cutler, it’s a good thing that he lost).
None of that makes sense to me - how does gerrymandering weight a generic ballot poll, and why would weighting the poll cause the generic ballot results to look like this but not impact Trump’s approval rating in the poll?
I don't know CNN's formula for getting to D+3, but I'm positive that's an outlier. Like the recent batch of elections show a much bigger disapproval gap than predicted, like Spanberger and Sherrill's blowout gubernatorial wins last year.
Looking at that TN congressional map Rs pushed through, there’s definite dummymander potential if Democrats show up in Memphis and Nashville.
We can dream
If TN Rs think they can get 2024 numbers this year, they are dreaming.
Let's please use "dummymander" precisely. No, there is no dummymander potential in TN. There is a (slim, I believe) possibility that there will be a big enough wave to defeat the gerrymander this year.
We have better than a slim chance of flipping the House. Voters are fed up and when you have Republicans pulling outrageous and wildly unconstitutional shit like they're doing in LA, TN, AL and FL, they will crawl over broken glass to vote them out.
This is a midterm, some Republicans can (and will) sit this out. And if GOP polling couldn't predict two state FL legislative seats flipping in R-favorable districts, Rs are going to have a really bad night on 11/3/26.
Is there? Even Bredesen only won one of the districts in 2018. Unless if we’re within 10 points of flipping Tennessee statewide I doubt we’d win more than 1 House seat at most.
News from the North: in a brazen attempt to influence the composition of the House of Commons, a man going by the alias of "Goldenhawk" filled out his 2026 Census form by indicating he had 100,000 people living in both his attic and his basement. The new ridings of Upper and Lower Goldenhawk are both expected to swing Liberal based on the actual number of voters (2, maybe 3 if his son has turned 18 by then.)
That sounds like a gag. Is it a crime?
No, they are all white so it's fine.
Democrats in Virginia need to wake up and lower the age for retiring judges to 70 or 65.I am urging donors, both large and small to boycott Virginia Democrats for their cowardliness in responding to the GOP dominated Virginia Supreme court. The Dems have been shown a way to respond and so far have not endangering democracy in light of the southern states power grab against Black and Brown congressional and legislator districts. There are other Dems across this nation that need our support!!! No donor money for Virginia Dems!!!!
That seems like a weird way to do this. If we think we should ignore the court, just do it and ignore them, don’t do weird procedural stuff around the edges like this.
FWIW, Atlas Intel GCB:
Dems 55-40
https://cdn.atlasintel.org/faa7f7df-daae-44ca-801b-f25a339d99dc.pdf?_gl=1*5fe733*_ga*ODgwMDMwNTA0LjE3Nzg1ODYzNzE.*_ga_W78QD5CNP1*czE3Nzg1ODYzNzEkbzEkZzAkdDE3Nzg1ODYzNzMkajU4JGwwJGgw
Some bonkers crosstabs in there.
A 15-point win nationwide would be the largest margin for either party since 1974. I have to imagine that would be enough for some of the gerrymanders in places like Texas and Florida to break.
A 15-point win would overcome some of the gerrymanders in TN as well.
Josh Stein won 12 house seats in NC with similar numbers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/11/opinion/maureen-galindo-antisemitic-conspiracies.html
TX-35: It could be a coincidence, but The New York Times published an opinion calling Maureen Galindo an "antisemitic sex therapist" seemingly after The Downballot did.
The poll showing a 5-point lead for Osborne with him at 47% is tremendously exciting! I hope there really is a possibility that he can win.
Burbank needs to win that nomination tonight. I have no doubt that she won't, as Democrats should know better, but still.
What about the voters in the general election? They might pretty much ignore the Democratic nominee.
Not enough of them would, it would be like the Maine gubernatorial race in 2010 (though given what happened to Eliot Cutler, it’s a good thing that he lost).
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/12/politics/cnn-poll-midterms-affordability-politics-impact
CNN has us only up 3 on the generic ballot, 45-42. Trump’s approval is at 35%, so it’s weird to see our generic number doing so badly.
CNN is obviously weighing it more to Republicans thanks to all the rampant gerrymandering blessed by the MAGA SCOTUS.
Everyone else has it at D+10 or more.
None of that makes sense to me - how does gerrymandering weight a generic ballot poll, and why would weighting the poll cause the generic ballot results to look like this but not impact Trump’s approval rating in the poll?
I don't know CNN's formula for getting to D+3, but I'm positive that's an outlier. Like the recent batch of elections show a much bigger disapproval gap than predicted, like Spanberger and Sherrill's blowout gubernatorial wins last year.
a lot of pollsters are weighting to 2024 - is CNN doing the same?
https://x.com/Justinjpearson/status/2054200925221179590?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
TN-9: Democratic state Rep. Justin J. Pearson will still run here, regardless of the map.