Morning Digest: Maryland Democrat opposed to redistricting earns primary challenger

Army veteran Bobby LaPin, the "Sail Local Guy," will run against Senate President Bill Ferguson

Bobby LaPin (center) is challenging Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson in next year’s Democratic primary (credit: Boat Baltimore)

Leading Off

MD Redistricting

Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson, a key leader who’s stood in the way of mid-decade redistricting, has now earned a primary challenger angry over his stance. However, a new report suggests that Ferguson retains the support of more than half his caucus.

Bobby LaPin, an Army veteran and charter boat operator known in Baltimore as the “Sail Local Guy,” told the Baltimore Banner that Ferguson’s refusal to pursue a redraw had spurred him into the race.

“These are my neighbors. My home is under threat,” LaPin told the publication. “And if I don’t have a state senator that will stand up and protect this home and protect my neighbors then someone has to do it.”

Ferguson has represented a deep-blue slice of Baltimore since 2011 and has seven figures stockpiled in his campaign account. Progressive enthusiasm to counter GOP gerrymandering, however, has been running hot—as shown by Proposition 50’s landslide win in California—as has anger toward Democratic officials who aren’t on board.

But at least some of those officials are members of the Maryland Senate who are backing Ferguson’s play, according to Maryland Matters.

“Ferguson’s support — a broad term that includes senators who are merely deferential to their leader — appears to fall within a range of 20-25 of the Democratic Caucus’ 34 members,” the publication reports.

Whether that holds, however, remains an open question. Democratic Gov. Wes Moore has said he might still call a special session of the legislature, at which point Democratic lawmakers would have to decide whether to stick with Ferguson even as the state House appears supportive of passing a new map.

The inside scoop on The Downballot's new polling

Governors

KS-Gov

Termed-out incumbent Laura Kelly endorsed state Sen. Ethan Corson on Monday in next year’s race to succeed her as governor of Kansas.

Kelly, whose 2018 and 2022 victories gave Democrats a rare victory in this conservative state, touted Corson as a “true middle-of-the-road candidate who will attract that same broad base of support that is necessary to win but also to then govern effectively.”

Kelly previously praised the state senator when he launched his campaign in July, though she held off endorsing him until now.

Corson faces fellow state Sen. Cindy Holscher in the Aug. 4 primary. But while Kelly’s endorsement helps establish Corson as the favorite to capture his party’s nomination, there is no such frontrunner in the considerably more crowded Republican primary.

ME-Gov

Republican state Rep. Laurel Libby, who is one of the most high-profile hardliners in Maine, said Monday that she would not run for governor or any other office—including the one she currently holds—next year. Libby instead told the Portland Press Herald that she would focus her efforts on turning out conservative voters for the state’s 2026 elections.

Two fellow Pine Tree State Republicans, though, are making noises about joining the already packed June primary for governor.

The Bangor Daily News reports that former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason “quietly” formed an exploratory committee in October, a vehicle that allows undeclared candidates to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money.

Mason told the paper on Sunday that he had no timeline to decide on what would be his second campaign for governor. Mason took a distant second in the 2018 primary to wealthy businessman Shawn Moody, who ultimately lost to Democrat Janet Mills; Mills, who won reelection in 2022, is now termed out and running for the U.S. Senate.

The second Republican, State House Minority Leader Billy Bob Faulkingham, took to Facebook on Sunday to express interest in seeking “higher office.” Faulkingham did not specify what office he was looking at in his post or to the Press Herald, though the story says that he “reiterated that he would make an announcement soon.”

NH-Gov

Former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington is considering seeking the Democratic nomination to oppose Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, the New Hampshire Union Leader reports. Warmington, who lost last year’s primary for governor 48-42 to former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, has not yet said anything publicly about a second campaign.

Ayotte, who went on to defeat Craig 54-44, has yet to attract a serious Democratic rival in her campaign for a second two-year term.

There has been chatter, though, that Ayotte could face primary opposition as punishment for her refusal to heed the White House’s call to gerrymander New Hampshire’s congressional map, and longtime Trump apparatchik Corey Lewandowski threatened to oppose her last month. Lewandowski, however, does not appear to have taken any steps toward running over the ensuing weeks.

Morning Digest: Trumpworld wants to primary a governor. They might get saddled with Corey Lewandowski

House

CA-06

Democrat Lauren Babb Tomlinson, an official with a regional affiliate of Planned Parenthood, has entered the race for California’s open 6th District in the Sacramento area.

Tomlinson is the second notable Democrat to jump in after Democratic Rep. Ami Bera’s decision to seek reelection in the neighboring 3rd District, following former state Sen. Richard Pan. Following the passage of Proposition 50, both districts are now blue-leaning turf that Democrats should have little problem winning in 2026.

FL-07

Bale Dalton, a former Navy helicopter pilot who served as NASA chief of staff under Joe Biden, kicked off a campaign against scandal-plagued Republican Rep. Cory Mills on Monday.

In his launch video, Dalton emphasizes his service overseas flying medevac choppers and special operations missions while also castigating the incumbent for his litany of ethical and legal travails.

Most recently, a judge awarded a restraining order against Mills to a former girlfriend he concluded was likely a “victim of dating violence.” The congressman is also under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over allegations that he may have illegally entered into contracts with the federal government.

And earlier this year, NOTUS reported that five soldiers who served with Mills in Iraq disputed that he’d saved the lives of two troops who’d come under fire—acts for which he was awarded a Bronze Star.

Dalton joins attorney Noah Widmann in the Democratic primary for Florida’s 7th Congressional District, a conservative constituency just north of the Space Coast that voted for Donald Trump by a 56-43 margin last year.

GA-14

Donald Trump wrote Friday that he’d back a primary challenge to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene if it is “the right person,” but who might this MAGA champion be?

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution speculates that either state Sen. Colton Moore or physician John Cowan, who lost the 2020 Republican primary runoff to Greene, could take up Trump’s call.

Neither man commented to the paper about their interest, though Moore, a far-right insurgent who is deeply despised by his own party, was happy to entertain the idea in replies to his own tweet blasting Greene.

Morning Digest: The most despised Republican in Georgia might run for Senate

Far-right influencer Laura Loomer, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in Florida in 2020 and 2022, was more explicit in putting her name forward. It remains to be seen, though, if Loomer was actually serious when she tweeted, “Should I move to Georgia?”

HI-01

Democratic Rep. Ed Case’s intraparty critics have released an internal poll arguing that progressives need to consolidate behind a single opponent if they want to upset him in next August’s primary.

Data For Progress, polling on behalf of Our Hawai‘i PAC and Indivisible Hawai’i Statewide Network, shows Case leading state Rep. Della Au Belatti 40-16, with state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole close behind with 12%. The incumbent leads Belatti 44-26 in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, while he enjoys a nearly identical 44-25 advantage over Keohokalole.

But while this survey, which was completed just over a month ago, finds the congressman well ahead in each scenario, its sponsors believe he can still lose if anti-Case Democrats have just one alternative to consolidate behind.

“Whoever can best articulate that progressive vision should be the challenger to take on Ed Case and represent Honolulu in Congress,” a spokesperson for Our Hawai‘i told Politico, which first reported the poll. Neither group has expressed a preference for whether Belatti or Keohokalole should be the one who leaves the race against Case, who is one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus.

NJ-07

Somerset County Commissioner Sara Sooy on Monday announced that she was entering the packed June Democratic primary to oppose Republican Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey’s swingy 7th District.

Sooy won her post in 2018 when she and fellow Democrat Shanel Robinson unseated a pair of GOP incumbents, which the Courier News characterized as “one of the most surprising results on Election Day in Central Jersey.”

Those victories made them the first Democrats to win seats on the county commission since the early 1980s, and established Sooy as its first Latina member. Democrats went on to take a majority one year later when a third Democrat, Melonie Marano, won another seat. (Robinson, who became the first Black woman to lead the body, is now running for the neighboring 12th Congressional District.)

Sooy joins eight fellow Democrats in the race to take on Kean in the 7th District, which narrowly favored Donald Trump 50-48 last year. The New Jersey Globe notes that Sooy is the sole sitting elected official running in the primary, and that only former Summit Councilman Greg Vartan has previously held office.

NJ-11

Sen. Andy Kim endorsed former Rep. Tom Malinowski Monday ahead of the special Democratic primary, while outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy backed Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill hours later.

Monday’s news from the already-crowded Democratic field to replace Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill in the 11th District doesn’t stop there, though. Venture capitalist Zach Beecher, who served as an Army paratrooper, launched his own campaign as well. Beecher, who has not run for office before, touted himself as a “political outsider.”

Malinowski and Gill, by contrast, have plenty of connections in Garden State politics.

Kim used his endorsement video to tell the audience how he first met Malinowski over a decade ago when they were both part of the Obama administration. The pair, along with Sherrill, went on to be elected to Congress the same night when they each flipped a GOP-held House seat, with Malinowski prevailing in the old 7th District.

Malinowski narrowly lost reelection to Republican Rep. Tom Kean in 2022 after a Democratic-drawn map weakened his district while shoring up other vulnerable incumbents like Kim and Sherrill.

Malinowski, though, remained politically active, and he endorsed Kim in last year’s Senate primary over former financier Tammy Murphy, the wife of Phil Murphy. The New Jersey Globe says Malinowski was “one of just a handful of prominent Democrats” to back Kim before Murphy, who had most of the local party establishment on her side, dropped out after multiple setbacks.

Gill, for his part, in 2015 was an early high-level hire for Phil Murphy, who was one of several Democrats who aspired to win the governor’s office two years down the line. Gill would serve as campaign manager in 2017 when Murphy, who became the dominant Democratic candidate well before the primary, was elected to the first of his two terms.

The governor backed Gill days after the Globe first reported that Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, who has served in Murphy’s administration for the last eight years, has also decided to run for the 11th District. The site says that Murphy’s decision to endorse Gill “represent[s] a snubbing” of Way, who had not announced her campaign as of Monday evening.

NJ-12

Assemblywoman Verlina Reynolds-Jackson announced Monday that she was entering the race to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, a fellow New Jersey Democrat. Reynolds-Jackson has served in the legislature since 2018, and she’s part of the Assembly’s leadership.

Reynolds-Jackson joins East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen and Somerset County Commissioner Shanel Robinson in the June Democratic primary for the safely blue 12th District.

NY-08

New York City Council Member Chi Osse, who’s reportedly been preparing a challenge to Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, confirmed to Axios on Monday that he’s “exploring a potential run” in the Democratic primary. That same day, Osse filed paperwork with the FEC ahead of a possible campaign, but he has yet to actually launch a bid.

SC-01

Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt announced Monday that she would run to succeed Rep. Nancy Mace, a fellow Republican who is giving up the 1st Congressional District to run for governor of South Carolina.

“Look, there are plenty of ridiculous politicians in D.C.,” Honeycutt said in her launch video. “And what we really need are people that are serious, not just out for clickbait.”

While Honeycutt did not mention Mace, she was one of over 50 local elected officials who signed a letter of support for employees of Charleston International Airport after the congresswoman reportedly swore at security personnel and later threatened to file a lawsuit.

TX-18 (special)

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has picked Jan. 31 as the date for the special election runoff for Texas’ 18th District, which has been vacant since Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner died in March. The race for the remainder of Turner’s term, like the Nov. 4 all-party primary, will take place using the old congressional map rather than the GOP’s new gerrymander.

Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who are both Democrats, will face off in this contest, which will take place on a Saturday. The runoff, though, will take place months after the state’s Dec. 8 deadline to run for a full term in Congress, so they’ll each need to file paperwork without knowing if they’ll be the incumbent going into next year’s election.

What they do know, though, is that one of their opponents in the March 3 Democratic primary will be veteran Rep. Al Green. Green announced last week that he would run in the new 18th District because the new map transformed his old 9th District into a heavily Republican district that has little in common with his longtime turf beyond sharing a number.

Morning Digest: Al Green will run again, setting up clash with much younger opponent

If no one earns a majority of the vote, a runoff would take place on May 26. The winner will be the heavy favorite in the November general election.

VA-06

Author Beth Macy, who wrote the 2018 nonfiction bestseller “Dopesick” about the opioid crisis, announced Tuesday morning that she would seek the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Rep. Ben Cline.

The current incarnation of Virginia’s 6th District, which is based in the Shenandoah Valley, favored Donald Trump 61-37 last year, according to calculations by The Downballot. This constituency could look very different, though, if Democrats succeed in redrawing the map in time for the fall elections.

Morning Digest, sponsored by FiftyPlusOne: Virginia Democrats reportedly have a surprise plan to redistrict—before 2026

Macy, a former Roanoke Times reporter whose book was adapted into a 2021 TV miniseries, isn’t waiting for a potential remap before launching her campaign to challenge Cline in this longtime Republican stronghold.

“He’s voted against addiction treatment, against lowering healthcare costs and against investments our rural communities desperately need,” she said in a statement. “Time and again, he’s sided with pharmaceutical companies and party extremists while families in the 6th District struggle to get by.”

WI-03

Highway construction engineer Rodey Rave, a former legislator in the Ho-Chunk Nation, has joined the Democratic primary to take on Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s 3rd District.

Already seeking the nod are businesswoman Rebecca Cooke, who has raised huge sums and earned a wide swath of endorsements across the political spectrum, and Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge. If successful, Rave could join another member of the Ho-Chunk Nation in Congress, Kansas Rep. Sharice Davids.

Mayors & County Leaders

Bexar County, TX Judge

Former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg announced Saturday that he would challenge Bexar County Judge Peter Sakai, who leads one of the largest communities in Texas, in the March 3 Democratic primary.

Nirenberg, who left office in June due to term limits, began his new campaign by arguing that only he had the leadership skills to serve as judge, which is an executive rather than judicial post.

“I don’t think that that office is performing the way it should,” he told San Antonio Report. “It’s been reactionary to major issues. And frankly, we need strong leadership.”

But Sakai, who was first elected in 2022, says that Nirenberg only wants his job as a fallback because he doesn’t have the chance to serve in a Democratic presidential administration or a good opening to run statewide.

“At one point Ron’s bags were packed for DC,” Sakai wrote on social media last month after the news broke that Nirenberg had decided to run against him. “At one point he was running for Governor, then Senator. Now, despite at one point telling the Express-News he wasn’t running for County Judge, it’s clear Ron never found the greener pastures he dreamed of.”

Candidates need to win a majority in the March primary in order to avert a runoff in late May. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be favored in a county that Kamala Harris carried 54-44 last year.

Miami, FL Mayor

Donald Trump on Sunday evening endorsed former City Manager Emilio Gonzalez ahead of the Dec. 9 runoff for mayor, though he twice misspelled his fellow Republican’s last name.

Trump’s intervention on behalf of “Emilio T. Gonzales,” though, is only the latest and most pronounced sign that this officially nonpartisan election will be Miami’s most partisan mayoral race in recent memory. Gonzalez faces former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Eileen Higgins, who is trying to become the first Democrat to lead the city in the 21st century

Republicans have had no trouble controlling city hall since Tomas Regalado decisively won the 2009 election to succeed Manny Diaz, an independent who supported Barack Obama but only became a Democrat after leaving office. Francis Suarez, similarly, went on to prevail with ease in 2017, and he’s now leaving office due to term limits.

Miami spent most of that era as a Democratic stronghold in presidential elections, but like the rest of South Florida, it has veered sharply to the right in recent years. Hillary Clinton set a high-water mark in 2016 when she carried the city by a giant 69-29 margin, but four years later, Joe Biden racked up a considerably smaller 59-40 score. In 2024, when the bottom dropped out for Florida Democrats, Kamala Harris eked out just a 50-49 win.

Democrats, though, are hoping that Trump’s gains here will prove temporary for the GOP and that Higgins’ strong showing in the Nov. 4 nonpartisan primary will preview a historic win next month.